analyst meeting 3q2012 - listed...

ANALYST MEETING 3Q2012

www.bangchak.co.th

November 7, 2012

Agenda

Oil Market Situation

3Q2012 Highlights

3Q2012 Financial Performance

What’s next in 4Q2012 and 2013

2 www.bangchak.co.th

1Q12 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 75

85

95

105

115

125

135

WTI

Brent

DB

$/bbl

Global Oil Market: Price Outlook

www.bangchak.co.th 3

Forecasted DUBAI Price:

Factors to watch…in 4Q12 and 2013

U.S. Fiscal cliff EU crisis Iran nuclear ME tension

o Global economic slowdown

o EU debt crisis (Spain, Greece)

o Additional supply from Non-OPEC

o U.S fiscal cliff?/ SPR release ?

o Tension in Middle East

o High Demand in winter

4Q2012 ≈ 103-107$/bbl Y2013 ≈ 106$/bbl


Asian Oil Market: Cracks Movement

$/bbl

-15

-5

5

15

25

Asian refinery margins will continue to be supported by firm middle distillate crack

UNL95-DB

GO-DB

FO-DB

Re : FO based on new conversion (6.35) 2013 GO-DB based on Gasoil 0.05%S

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

GO-DB Avg. 2013 19.00

UNL95-DB Avg. 2013 12.75

FO-DB Avg. 2013 -2.60

World Refinery Capacity and Demand


92.15 92.15

93.94

96.60

98.32

100.01

101.62

+1.79

+2.66

+1.72

+1.69

+1.61 +0.75

89.0 89.8

90.6

91.8

93.2

94.5

95.7

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Additional capacity

Existing refinery capacity

Global Oil demand

MBD

World refinery run: 2011= 80.8% , 2012= 80.1%

Agenda


3Q2012 Highlights




Refinery & Marketing Performance


Base GRM

GRM Hedging

MKM

Accounting GIM

Unit : USD/bbl

Inventory G/L

Total GRM

2Q2012 3Q2012 9MTH2012

4.85 14.03

7.43

2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

0.63 1.26

0.68

1 2 3

(8.26)

6.11

0.91

9.02 21.40 (2.78)

4.82 4.00 3.62

12.64 25.40 2.04

3Q2012 Refinery Highlights

Crude run 38.7 KBD

Crack spreads of main products increased YoY and QoQ

Reversed LCM of 1,061 MB

Satisfied Base GRM (including Hedging) at 15.29 $/bbl


Local 67%

Far East 20%

Middle East 1%

Other 12%

Crude Selection

9%

9%

1%

Product Yield

100.99

70.79

38.70

70.16

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

Crude Run LPG

GASOLINE

FO

JET

58%

22%

HSD

KBD

CDU no.3 Repairing Work

Incident Date: July 4 , 2012

Cause: Leakage of gas oil in idle column.

Repairing works:

Replaced 3 columns.

Refurbished Main Column.

Electrical, piping, steel structure, power

cable remove and install, insulation and scaffolding work.

Mechanical Completion: October 26, 2012

Crude charge: Nov 6, 2012

World-class consultants: Quest, Dupont, Foster Wheeler and

Toyo-Thai Corporation Public Company Limited.


Cause of CDU no.3 Incident


Crude Distillation Unit (3C-101)

Topping Unit Kerosene (3C-102)

Topping Unit Gasoil (3C-104A)

Topping Unit Diesel (3C-103)

Gasoil

To Quality Adjustment Unit

Gasoil From CDU

Inactive part

Topping Unit

Gasoil (3C-104A)

Oil vapor leaked

Micro leakage

(50 micrometer) Twice as small as hair

Cause: Oil Vapor Leakage

9 Steps To Raise Confidences

1. Inspected and Educated

by World-class Professionals

2. Consulted with Professionals

from DuPont for Safety Standard

3. Reviewed and Studied the

Probability of Potential Hazards

from Operation to Prevent Dangers

4. High-Standard Fire Engines Added

to Raise Capabilities of Risk Control

5. Increase Frequency of Practice to

Deal With Urgent Situations

6. Expand Gas Leakage Detection

Systems And Camera Surveillances

7. Intensively Educate Employees

at Plant

8. Increase the Installation of Online

Water and Air Quality Report LED

Signboards

9. Safety Communication

Educate neighbor communities from chemicals and fire incident.

Prepare and Publish Safety Handbooks.

Social & Community Communications


Surrounding communities visited BCP refinery in Oct 2012.

Social & Community Communications


Press visited BCP refinery on Nov 6, 2012.

3Q2012 Marketing Highlights

MKM (Excluding Lube) 0.40 B/L (2.2$/bbl)

Total Sales Volume 69.64 KBD (- 3.44% YoY) as a result of incident.

Sales volume through S/S increased by 5.4% YoY

E20 and E85 sales volume increased by 11.6% and 52.6% respectively (QoQ)


Average Sales Volume through Marketing Channels (ML/MO)

Sales Vol. by product

202 226 208 236

149 148

132

175

351 374 340 411

3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012F

19 20 18 21

173 207

165 224

68 51

62

60 88

93 91

102 3 4

4

3

3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012F

44.8%

16.0%

14.6%

12.8%

6.4% 5.4%

45.5%

16.0%

13.9%

12.5%

6.0% 6.1%

3Q2012 Marketing Highlights


Market share of sales volume through service stations

Other

3.0%YOY

Jan-Aug 2012

Other

2.6%YOY

All Product

Gasoline

3rd

2nd

11.5 12.88

14.37

3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012

11.6% QoQ

24.9% YoY

52.6% QoQ

317.5% YoY

E20&E85 Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)

0.57

1.56

2.38

3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012

Agenda


3Q2012 Highlights




Profit and Loss (Consolidated)


Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

Sales Revenue 40,362 33,322 121,294

EBITDA (203) 2,208 5,719

Depreciation and Amortization (552) (620) (1,730)

Other FX and Impairment 115 7 358

Financial Cost (204) (270) (666)

Pre-tax Profit (845) 1,325 3,681

Tax 476 (250) (524)

Net Profit (369) 1,076 3,157

EPS (Baht/Share) (0.28) 0.78 2.27

3Q2012 Performance:

Operating performance

mostly resulted from the

incident of CDU no.3

(80KBD).

However, the performance

was supported by crack

spreads and a lower crude

run the company was able

to arrange and get best

economics yield and GRM.

Reported reversal of

allowance for loss from inventory write-down.

Profit and Loss (Company)


Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

Sales revenue 39,620 32,727 119,286

EBITDA (261) 2,166 5,513

- Refinery Business (1,069) 1,831 3,820

- Marketing Business 701 187 1,438

- Solar Power Business 107 148 256

Depreciation & Amortization (538) (619) (1,701)

Other FX and Impairment 115 7 358

Financial Cost (197) (263) (643)

Pre-tax Profit (881) 1,291 3,527

Tax 475 (243) (508)

Net Profit (407) 1,049 3,020

EPS (Baht/Share) (0.30) 0.76 2.19

Financial Position (Consolidated)


4,021

27,273

3,350

26,959 29,879

16,582

15,142

31 Dec 2011

Cash & Equivalents

Other

Current Assets

Other Non-

Current Assets

PP&E

61,603

Inventory increased resulted from crude plan for restarting

plant after TAM in 2Q2012.

PPE increased, mostly from annual CAPEX while loss from

impairment of assets.

Short-term Debt slightly increased from P/N.

67,078

30 Sep 2012

Current +

other Liabilities

L/T Debt (Incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

15,450

20,450

31,178

2,271

32,923

3,521

28,363

Current Ratio, time

Int. bearing D/E Ratio, time

1.78 1.83

2.15 2.15

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2009 2010 2011 9M2012

0.75 0.86

0.62 0.73

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2009 2010 2011 9M2012

Unit: MMTHB

Refinery BU Performance


2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

Base GRM 982 4.85 1,573 14.03 4,468 7.43

GRM Hedging 128 0.63 142 1.26 410 0.68

Inventory Gain/(Loss) (611) (3.02) (376) (3.35) 548 0.91

LCM (1,061) (5.24) 1,061 9.46 - -

Total GRM (562) (2.78) 2,401 21.4 5,425 9.02

Other Income 34 0.17 33 0.29 108 0.18

Operating Expenses (541) (2.64) (603) (5.38) (1,711) (2.84)

EBITDA (1,069) (5.22) 1,831 16.33 3,822 6.35

Adjusted EBITDA 603 2.95 1,145 10.21 3,275 5.44

Key factors:

Crude Run (KBD) 70.79 38.70 70.04

Exchange rate (฿/$) 31.43 31.50 31.35

DB ($/Bbl) 106.37 106.30 109.61

Company Only

Marketing BU Performance


2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L

Net Retail Margin 767 1.13 371 0.59 1,683 0.85

Net Industrial Margin 210 0.47 78 0.20 499 0.36

Total MKM 977 0.87 448 0.44 2,182 0.65

Other Income 182 0.16 169 0.17 545 0.16

Operating Expenses (458) (0.41) (430) (0.42) (1,288) (0.38)

EBITDA 701 0.62 187 0.18 1,439 0.43

Sales volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

o Retail 46.94 226.36 42.62 207.80 45.29 219.21

o Industrial 30.69 148.01 27.02 131.75 32.13 155.53

Total Sales volume 77.63 374.37 69.64 339.55 77.42 374.73

Company Only

Solar Power BU Performance


Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012

Revenue 40 153 193

Cost (0.26) (0.3) (1)

Gross profit 40 153 192

Other income 72 1 74

Operating Expense (5) (5) (10)

EBITDA 107 148 256

The whole phase 1 has started COD since July 16, 2012.

Major expenses are Depreciation and Financial Cost.

Phase 1

Bangchak Biofuel Performance

Sales volume decreased (QoQ) because of B4 mandate and

low season

B100 Gross margin increased by 30% YoY

Average capacity at 309,000 litres per day (85.83% of 360,000 Litres per day)

Increased Capacity to be 360,000 litres per day

(Started COD since July 2012)


Unit: MMTHB 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012

Sale 768 1,292 891

Gross Profit 36 65 49

EBITDA 52 71 19

Net Profit 30 51 12

Financial Ratio (Consolidated)


Profitability Ratio 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012

Liquidity Ratio

Current Ratio Times 2.15 2.42 2.15

AR Day Days 18.49 11.17 16.39

DSCR Times 1.54 3.06 1.53

Leverage Ratio

IBD/E Times 0.62 0.53 0.73

Interest Coverage Times 5.61 3.13 5.91

Valuation Ratio

Book Value per Share Baht 21.59 22.08 22.51

EPS Baht 0.44 (0.28) 0.78

EBITDA Margin % 3.77 (0.50) 6.63

Return on Equity-ROE % 2.30 (1.28) 3.53

Return on Assets-ROA % 1.01 (0.61) 1.67

Agenda


3Q2012 Highlights

Financial Performance



BCP with Sustainable Growth


2012 Assumption: Crude run ≈ 80 KBD

2013

2016

Assumption:

Crude run ≈ 110 KBD

Assumption:

Crude run ≈ 120 KBD

• Expand nameplate capacity to 140 KBSD

• Sales volume through MK channel: 100 KBD

• Solar 170 MW installed

EBITDA, MMTHB

(Excl. stock gain/loss)

Refinery Business


• High-Innovation Refinery: Project (Energy, Efficiency & Environment)

New CCR (Continuous Catalytic Regeneration): 12 KBD

Co-Generation Power Plant: 15 MW

New CDU: 80 100 KBD

• To reach capacity of 140 KBSD (Average crude run 120 KBD)

• To enhance GRM ≈ 2-2.5 $/bbl

• Repairing process of CDU#3 has been

completed since Oct 2012.

• Target Crude Run 90 KBD

• Target Base GRM 8 $/bbl

4Q2012

2013 onwards…

2013 • Starting 3E+ project

• No TAM

• Target Crude Run 110 KBD

• Target Base GRM 7 $/bbl

Marketing Business


Expected Average Sales Volume: 411 ML/MO

(86 KBD)

Expected Marketing Margin: 0.54 Baht/litre

Mini BIGC 10 branches

4Q2012

2013 onwards Expected Average Sales Volume:

420 ML/MO (88 KBD) in 2013 to match

production at 100 KBD within 2015

Rebranding Service Stations 120

branches in 2013

Expanding New Service Stations with

Green Service Stations Concepts

Mini BigC 100 branches in 2013,

to reach 220 branches within 2015

Launching New E20 Euro V

Service

stations Sep 2012 Y2012

Y2013

(Target)

E20 514 600 700

E85 48 50 100

GREEN PARK STATION

Chatuchot


Rebranding Co-op Service Stations


Solar Power Business


Unit: MMTHB 2012F 2013F

Phase 1 (44 MW)

≈ 400 ≈ 745

Phase 2 (50 MW)

- ≈ 700

Forecasted EBITDA

• Located in Bamnet Narong

Chaiyaphum Province.

• Expected COD in Jan 2013. 25 MW

Phase 2 (Installed 50 MW)

• Located at Bang Pa Han,

Ayudhaya.

• Expected COD in Feb 2013. 25 MW

Phase 3 (Installed 75 MW)

• Located in Prachinburi.

• Expected COD in Dec 2013. 25 MW

• Located in north eastern

part of Thailand.

• Expected COD in 2014.

50 MW



Phase 2: 25 MW installed

Bamnet Narong, Chaiyaphum



Phase 2: 25 MW installed

Bang Pa Han, Ayudhaya

Biofuel Business


Current Capacity: 360,000 litre/day

Expanding capacity: 300,000 litre/day,

totally 660,000 litre/day

Expected EBITDA in 2013: 140 MMTHB


Biodiesel/B100 plant (BBF)

Ethanol Plant (UBE)

Feed: cassava, cassava chips and molasses

Expected COD: Feb 2013


CAPEX


Unit: MMTHB Y2013

Normal CAPEX 1,000

Network Expansion 1,000

Solar Phase #2, #3 4,000

3E+ Project -

BBF Expansion -

Total 6,000

Y2014 - 2016

3,000

3,000

5,500

6,000

800

18,300

Funding by: • Cash Flow from Operation • Bond Issuance

ANALYST MEETING 3Q2012

analyst meeting 3q2012 - listed...

Documents