Analysis of the Practicability of External Emergency Planning in Germany

based on Experiences from the Fukushima Accident

F. Gering, B. Gerich, E. Wirth und G. Kirchner BfS – Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Germany

fgering@bfs.de

Are we well prepared for „Fukushima-like“ releases in Germany ?

Off-site emergency planning in Germany

<100 km:Intake of stable iodinefor children andpregnant women

<25 km:Intake of stable iodinefor adults < 45 years

<10 km: Evacuation,Sheltering

Off-site emergency planning in Germany (2)

Example for evacuation planning

at NPP Biblis

Study of BfS (ongoing)

Assessment of radiological consequences for several long-lasting (up to 30d), severe releases (all INES 7)with the RODOS system

NPP Unterweser and NPP Philippsburg

Based on real weather data from 2010

RODOS simulations up to 150 km

Estimated doses were compared against German dose reference levels

KKU, Fukushima, June KKU, const. emiss., Dec.

Results: Eff. Dose (adults), external exposure and inhalation

Day 4 Day 6 Day 8

Eff. Dose (adults), external exposure and inhalation

Sheltering

Summary of radiological consequences with respect to sheltering

Scenario Month Areas where reference levels exceeded Maximum

distance (km) Size (km2) # of affected

sectors NPP Unterweser

Fukushima June 2010 ≈ 75 ≈ 560 11 constant emission June 2010 ≈ 45 ≈ 740 12 Fukushima Dec 2010 ≈ 60 ≈ 1200 12 constant emission Dec 2010 ≈ 95 ≈ 2400 12

NPP Philippsburg Fukushima Oct 2010 ≈ 50 ≈ 490 9 constant emission Oct 2010 ≈ 42 ≈ 1040 12 Fukushima Dec 2010 ≈ 60 ≈ 1280 12 constant emission Dec 2010 ≈ 85 ≈ 2250 12

not foreseen in emergency planning

Intake of stable iodine (children, pregnant women)

Cities affected:- Wilhelmshaven - Bremerhaven - Bremen (partially)- Oldenburg (partially)approx. 175 000 children

Thyroid dose for infants from inhalation of radioiodine

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 6 11 16 21 26

Days after begin of release

Th

yro

id d

ose

per

day

(m

Sv)

Reference level

200 km

Conclusions (1)

The size of areas, where reference levels for protective actions „sheltering“, „evacuation“ and „iodine prophylaxis“ are exceeded, by far exceeds the emergency planning for many of the accident scenarios considered in this study.

Current plans for implementing protective actions in the sector (from the EPZ), which is directly hit by the contaminated plume, and in the neighbouring sectors does not fully account for long lasting releases where often all sectors around the NPP are affected to similar extent.

In case of long lasting severe releases the critical situation can occur, that reference levels for protective actions are not exceeded in any 7-day-interval (for which some of the reference levels are currently defined in Germany), but the total dose over the release period by far

exceeds the reference level.

Conclusions (2)

In case of long lasting severe releases an one-time intake of stable iodine often is not sufficient for protecting the population against large thyroid doses. Multiple intake of stable iodine tablets is currently not sufficiently considered in emergency planning. (Intake of stable iodine at different times for different areas?)

In case of long lasting severe releases the protective action “sheltering” imposes additional problems (e.g. the danger of being forced to order late evacuation even during passage of the plume, lifting of sheltering in one area while ordering in an another area), which may endanger the applicability of the action in general.

Concepts for lifting of countermeasures have to account for scenarios with long lasting releases.

Outlook

Consequences of long lasting releases on emergency planning might be discussed in an European research project possibly starting this year.

We are very much interested to learn about similar considerations in other countries !

Contact: fgering@bfs.de

Appendix

Dose reference levels in GermanyProtective action Dose reference level Comment Sheltering 10 mSv effective dose External exposure over 7

days and internal exposure from inhalation over 7 days

Iodine prophylaxis 50 mSv thyroid dose (children up to 18 years and pregnant women); 250 mSv thyroid dose (adults between 18 and 45 years)

Exposure from inhalation of radioiodine over 7 days

Evacuation 100 mSv effective dose External exposure over 7 days and internal exposure from inhalation over 7 days

Temporary relocation 30 mSv effective dose External exposure over 30 days from radionuclides deposited to the ground

Permanent relocation 100 mSv effective dose External exposure over 1 year from radionuclides deposited to the ground

Evakuierung

nicht in Notfallplanung vorgesehen

Szenario Abbildung Gebiet mit Überschreitung des Richtwerts

Maximal-Entfernung

(km)

Fläche (km2) AnzahlbetroffenerSektoren

KKW Unterweser

Fukushima, Juni 2010 4.1a ≈ 20 ≈ 24 1

FKA-30d, Juni 2010 4.1b ≈ 7 ≈ 20 4

FKA-15d, Juni 2010 4.1c ≈ 7 ≈ 32 4

konst. QT, Juni 2010 4.1d ≈ 5 ≈ 20 1

Fukushima, Dez 2010 4.3a ≈ 6 ≈ 24 5

FKA-30d, Dez 2010 4.3b ≈ 8 ≈ 24 2

FKA-15d, Dez 2010 4.3c ≈ 9 ≈ 28 3

konst. QT, Dez 2010 4.3d ≈ 8 ≈ 44 7

KKW Philippsburg

Fukushima, Okt. 2010 5.1a ≈ 12 ≈ 28 2

FKA-30d, Okt. 2010 5.1b ≈ 9 ≈ 28 7

FKA-15d, Okt. 2010 5.1c ≈ 16 ≈ 92 8

konst. QT, Okt. 2010 5.1d ≈ 5 ≈ 44 10

Fukushima, Dez. 2010 5.3a ≈ 10 ≈ 36 4

FKA-30d, Dez. 2010 5.3b ≈ 25 ≈ 160 6

FKA-15d, Dez. 2010 5.3c ≈ 20 ≈ 96 5

konst. QT, Dez. 2010 5.3d ≈ 24 ≈ 150 6

Einnahme von Iodtabletten

nicht in Notfallplanung vorgesehen

Szenario Abbildung Gebiet mit Überschreitung des Richtwerts

Maximal-Entfernung

(km)

Fläche (km2) AnzahlbetroffenerSektoren

KKW Unterweser

Fukushima, Juni 2010 4.2a > 180 ≈ 4000 12

FKA-30d, Juni 2010 4.2b ≈ 125 ≈ 3400 12

FKA-15d, Juni 2010 4.2c ≈ 180 ≈ 6000 12

konst. QT, Juni 2010 4.2d ≈ 75 ≈ 3800 12

Fukushima, Dez 2010 4.4a > 150 ≈ 7400 12

FKA-30d, Dez 2010 4.4b > 160 ≈ 8800 12

FKA-15d, Dez 2010 4.4c ≈ 120 ≈ 7000 12

konst. QT, Dez 2010 4.4d ≈ 140 ≈ 12100 12

KKW Philippsburg

Fukushima, Okt. 2010 5.2a ≈ 140 ≈ 4000 10

FKA-30d, Okt. 2010 5.2b > 160 ≈ 6500 12

FKA-15d, Okt. 2010 5.2c > 160 ≈ 10700 11

konst. QT, Okt. 2010 5.2d ≈ 98 ≈ 5700 12

Fukushima, Dez. 2010 5.4a ≈ 155 ≈ 4800 12

FKA-30d, Dez. 2010 5.4b ≈ 190 ≈ 8000 12

FKA-15d, Dez. 2010 5.4c ≈ 120 ≈ 5800 12

konst. QT, Dez. 2010 5.4d ≈ 185 ≈ 7700 12

Umsiedlung

50 mSv (200 km2)

20 mSv (1200 km2)

100 mSv (56 km2)

Eff. Dosis (Erw.) durch Bodenstrahlung über 1 Jahr

Eff. Dosis durch externe Strahlung und Inhalation

KKP, FKA-15d, Okt. KKP, FKA-30d, Dez.

KKP, FKA-15d, Okt. KKP, FKA-30d, Dez.

Schilddrüsendosis für Kleinkinder durch Inhalation