analysis and risk assessments of climatic factors during the ......temp. during transplanting stage/...
TRANSCRIPT
Analysis and risk assessments of climatic factors during the field
period of flue-cured tobacco in Luzhou, China—A case study
Wang Aiguo1; Jin Baofeng2; Liu Li2; Yang Xin2;Liu Yang1; Zhang Yanling1*
1 Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute of CNTC，China2 China Tobacco Guangdong Industrial Co., Ltd
2/1/2020
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Overview
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Data and methods
• Results and anaylsis
• Conclusions
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Introduction
• Climate is very important to tobacco growing and quality of tobacco leaves.
• Large climate fluctuations have an adverse impact on tobacco growing, such as
drought, high temperature, chilling, water-logging, and so on.
• Climate risk assessment could provide a way to find adverse meteorological factors
for tobacco growing and explore strategies for their prevention.
• Luzhou is a typical tobacco producing area located in southwest mountainous area
of China where is the main tobacco producing area of China.
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Introduction
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Introduction
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pre
cip
itat
ion
am
ou
nt
(mm
)
Tem
per
atu
r(℃
)
Normal climate of Luzhou
Precip. Average temp. Max. temp. Min. temp.
Tobacco field period
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Objectives
• Analyse the characteristics of main climate factors during the field
period of flue-cured tobacco.
• Evaluate the climatic suitability for flue-cured tobacco.
• Evaluate the climate risk during the field period of flue-cured tobacco.
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Data and Methods
The daily meteorological data of Luzhou City from 2006 to 2016.The daily meteorological data of 24 towns in Gulin county and Xuyong county from 2014 to 2017.
0
5
10
15
20
25
3020
-Ap
r25
-Ap
r30
-Ap
r5-
May
10-M
ay15
-May
20-M
ay25
-May
30-M
ay4-
Jun
9-Ju
n14
-Ju
n19
-Ju
n24
-Ju
n29
-Ju
n4-
Jul
9-Ju
l14
-Ju
l19
-Ju
l24
-Ju
l29
-Ju
l3-
Au
g8-
Au
g13
-Au
g18
-Au
g23
-Au
g28
-Au
g2-
Sep
7-Se
p
transplanting-rosette stage
vigorous growing stage
early mature stage
late mature stage
aver
age
tem
per
atu
re (℃
)The flue-cured tobacco growth stage and the temperature
during the field growth period in Luzhou
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Data and Methods--Climatic Suitability Index System
X1: the lower limit value
X2: the optimal lower limit value
X3: the optimal upper limit value
X4: the upper limit value
Climate Indexes X1 X2 X3 X4 weight
temp. during mature stage/ °C(early Jul. to late Aug.) 18 19.5 22.5 26 0.3
duration of sunshine during mature stage/h(early Jul. to late Aug.) 185 280 400 495 0.2
duration of sunshine during field stage/h(late Apr to late Sep.) 530 660 980 1230 0.1
rainfall during main field stage/mm(Early Jun. to late Aug.) 230 350 560 1000 0.2
temp. during transplanting stage/ °C(late Apr. to early May) 11.5 15 18 22 0.1
rainfall during transplanting-rosette stage /mm(late Apr. to late May) 20 80 100 300 0.1
Table 1 The Inflection point and weight of the climate factors for climatic suitability index system 2020
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Data and Methods--Climatic Suitability Index System
Climatic suitability index is calculated by parabola function
F(x)=
1 x2≤x≤x3
0.9×(x-x1)/(x2-x1)+0.1 x1<x<x2
0.9×(x4-x)/(x4-x3)+0.1 x3<x<x4
0.1 x≤x1, x≥x4
iin
i WNCSI = =1
Comprehensive climatic suitability index (CSI) was calculated as follows:
In the formula, Ni and Wi represent the suitability index and weight coefficient of the climate index.
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Data and Methods--Climate risk assessment
The calculation formula of climate risk index (R) is as follows:
)1(
)1(
SAR
SAR icici
−
−
=
=
Rci : the degree of risk of a certain climatic factor.Aci: the standard deviation of a certain climatic suitability index.Si: the mean value of a certain climatic suitability index.R: the comprehensive degree of climate risk.
A: the standard deviation of comprehensive climatic suitability index.
S: the mean value of comprehensive climatic suitability index.
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Data and Methods--Date analysis method
Data was analyzed by WPS office software(Kingsoft ).
Maps of interpolation analysis were made by Arcgis 9.0 using the inverse distance
weighted (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods.
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Results and anaylsis--climate characteristics
The temperature spatial distribution during 4 stages were similar.
The temperature in the southern mountainous area is relatively low, show a decreasing trend from north to south.
transplanting -rosette stage vigorous growing stage
early mature stage late mature stage
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Results and anaylsis--climate characteristics
Temperature fluctuationincreased since 2010 during vigorous growing stage and early mature stage. 20
25
30
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ave
rage
te
mp
era
ture
(℃
)
Year
average temperature during transplanting-rosette stage (℃ )
20
25
30
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ave
rag
e t
em
pe
ratu
re (℃
)
Year
average temperature during vigorous growing stage (°C)
20
25
30
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
aver
age
tem
per
atu
re (℃
)
Year
average temperature during early mature stage (℃ )
20
25
30
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
aver
age
tem
per
atu
re (℃
)
Year
average temperature during late mature stage (℃ )
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Results and anaylsis--climate characteristics
transplanting -rosette stage vigorous growing stage
early mature stage late mature stage
The rainfall spatial distribution during 4 stages were also similar.
The total rainfall during 4 stages of Xuyong county wasobviously higher than that in Gulin county.
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Results and anaylsis--climate characteristics
The rainfall in different years fluctuated greatly, especially in 2016, the rainfall duing vigorous growing stage and early mature stage reached the highest level over these years.
0
100
200
300
400
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
rain
fall
(mm
)
Year
rainfall during transplanting-rosette stage (mm)
0
100
200
300
400
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
rain
fall（
mm）
Year
rainfall during vigorous growing stage (mm)
0
100
200
300
400
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
rain
fall（
mm）
Year
rainfall during early mature stage (mm)
0
100
200
300
400
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
rain
fall（
mm）
Year
rainfall during late mature stage (mm)
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Results and anaylsis-Climatic suitabilitytransplanting-rosette stage transplanting stage
main field stage mature stage
A B
DCA:spatial distribution of suitability index for rainfall during transplanting-rosette stage
B:spatial distribution of suitability Index for temperature during transplanting stage
C:spatial distribution of suitability index for rainfall during main field stage
D:spatial distribution of suitability index for temperature during mature stage
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Results and anaylsis-Climatic suitability
The comprehensive climatic
suitability index of Xuyong county
and Gulin county are both 0.74.
Part of the southern region is
greater than 0.8, while part of the
northern region is less than 0.7.
spatial distribution of comprehensive climatic
suitability index
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Results and anaylsis-Climate risk
In general, The climate risk degree of most area is lower than 0.2.
Rainfall risk degree during transplanting-rosette stage of central area of Xuyong county and temp. risk degree during mature stage of central area of Xuyong and northwest of Gulin is greater than 0.2.
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Results and anaylsis-Climate risk
The comprehensive climate risk degree of Luzhou is lower than 0.2
The comprehensive climate risk degree in parts of southern Luzhou is lower than 0.1
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Conclusions
• The fluctuation range of meteorological factors in Luzhou had increased since 2010.
In spatial distribution, the temperature was higher in the north than in the south,
and the rainfall in Xuyong county was higher than Gulin county.
• Climate conditions of most areas of Luzhou was suitable for flue-cured tobacco
production, and the climatic suitability index of Southern Luzhou is higher than
northern Luzhou.
• In general, The climate risk degree of most area is lower than 0.2.
• Annual instability of rainfall during the early growth stage and temperature during
the mature stage were the main risk factors for tobacco growing in Luzhou area.
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Thank You!
Questions?
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