analysing portfolio of stocks

8/9/2019 Analysing Portfolio of Stocks

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Analysis

Of

Portfolio



Table of Content

Contents Page

Introduction 1

Objective 1

Methodology 1

Overview about the Companies 2

Analysis of Probability 21

Our Investment Allocation 27

Comment on the Overall all Impact of Different

Information and events on Bangladesh Stock Market

27

Conclusion 28



Introduction

Portfolio means combination of investment. On the other hand, Portfolio

management is the professional management of various securities (shares,

bonds and other securities) and assets (e.g., real estate), to meet specifiedinvestment goals for the benefit of the investors. Investors may be

institutions (insurance companies, pension funds, corporations etc.) or

private investors (both directly via investment contracts and more commonly

via collective investment schemes e.g. mutual funds or exchange-traded

funds) .

As a part of our work study, we collected data about 4 companies. These are

Eastern Bank Limited

Southeast Bank Limited

Renata Limited

United Leasing Company Limited

Eastern Bank & Southeast Bank are in Banking Industry. Renata Limited is

Permactical Company and United leasing is a financial institution.

Objective:

Our main objective in this report paper was to decide in which industry or

portfolio, we will invest. How we will manage our portfolio was also our

objective in this report.

Methodology

We collected price index of the shares and market index from the library of

Dhaka Stock Exchange. Then we calculated Expected Return, Standard

Deviation and Beta using 30 months and daily 25 days data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_investment_scheme

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_funds

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_investment_scheme

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_funds





Then we made 4 portfolios and calculated Coefficient of Variances and

Correlations using 30 months and daily 25 days data.

Finally we allocated our investment based on the calculations on August 02,

2010.

Overview about the Companies

EBL

Listing Year: 1993

Face Value: 100

Market lot: 20

No of securities: 29208114

Last Dividend: 20%

Last Bonus: 17%, 2009

Market Category: A

Southeast Bank

Southeast Bank Limited was established in 1995 with a dream and a vision to

become a pioneer banking institution of the country and contribute

significantly to the growth of the national economy. The Bank was

established by leading business personalities and eminent industrialists of the country with stakes in various segments of the national economy.

Listing Year: 2000

Face Value: 100



Market lot: 50



Market Category: A

Renata Limited

The Company started its operations as Pfizer (Bangladesh) Limited in 1972.

For the next two decades it continued as a highly successful subsidiary of

Pfizer Corporation.

In 1993 Pfizer transferred the ownership of its Bangladesh operations to local

shareholders, and the name of the company was changed to Renata

Limited.

Listing Year: 1979

Face Value: 100

Market lot: 5


Last Dividend: 60%, 2009


Market Category: A

United Leasing

This company predominantly involves in lease financing of equipment and

machinery.



Listing Year 1994

Face Value 100

Market lot 20

No of securities 5280000

Last Bonus 100%, 2009

Market Category: A

Day Price (tk.) HPR HPY(R) R' R-R' (R-R')(R-R')25-05-2010 603.00

26-05-2010 614.75 1.019486 0.019486 0.003923 0.015562 0.0002421930-05-2010 625.75 1.017893 0.017893 0.003923 0.01397 0.00019516

31-05-2010 612.50 0.978825 -0.02117 0.003923 -0.0251 0.0006299101-06-2010 608.00 0.992653 -0.00735 0.003923 -0.01127 0.0001270202-06-2010 604.25 0.993832 -0.00617 0.003923 -0.01009 0.0001018303-06-2010 605.00 1.001241 0.001241 0.003923 -0.00268 7.1946E-0606-06-2010 601.75 0.994628 -0.00537 0.003923 -0.0093 8.6404E-0507-06-2010 590.00 0.980474 -0.01953 0.003923 -0.02345 0.000549908-06-2010 598.75 1.014831 0.014831 0.003923 0.010907 0.0001189609-06-2010 604.50 1.009603 0.009603 0.003923 0.00568 3.2261E-0510-06-2010 613.75 1.015302 0.015302 0.003923 0.011378 0.0001294713-06-2010 630.75 1.027699 0.027699 0.003923 0.023775 0.0005652514-06-2010 631.75 1.001585 0.001585 0.003923 -0.00234 5.4666E-0615-06-2010 630.25 0.997626 -0.00237 0.003923 -0.0063 3.9663E-0516-06-2010 636.75 1.010313 0.010313 0.003923 0.00639 4.0831E-0517-06-2010 626.75 0.984295 -0.0157 0.003923 -0.01963 0.00038527

20-06-2010 644.50 1.028321 0.028321 0.003923 0.024397 0.0005952221-06-2010 632.25 0.980993 -0.01901 0.003923 -0.02293 0.0005258122-06-2010 639.75 1.011862 0.011862 0.003923 0.007939 6.3026E-0523-06-2010 635.25 0.992966 -0.00703 0.003923 -0.01096 0.0001200724-06-2010 634.00 0.998032 -0.00197 0.003923 -0.00589 3.4706E-0527-06-2010 670.75 1.057965 0.057965 0.003923 0.054042 0.0029205228-06-2010 665.50 0.992173 -0.00783 0.003923 -0.01175 0.0001380829-06-2010 645.75 0.970323 -0.02968 0.003923 -0.0336 0.0011289930-06-2010 662.00 1.025165 0.025165 0.003923 0.021241 0.00045118

0.098087 0.00923438

exp. Ret 0.003923 V 0.00036938

SD 0.01921914



Table-01: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of EBL using

recent 25 day’s data



Day Price (tk.) HPR HPY(R) R' R-R' (R-R')(R-R')

Dec 19, 2007 1097

Jan 21, 2008 1027.5 0.936645 -0.06335 -0.01138 -0.05198 0.00270172

Feb 20, 2008 1007.5 0.980535 -0.01946 -0.01138 -0.00809 6.5418E-05

Mar 20, 2008 1035.5 1.027792 0.027792 -0.01138 0.039168 0.00153414

Apr 21, 2008 861 0.831482 -0.16852 -0.01138 -0.15714 0.02469331

May 21, 2008 847.25 0.98403 -0.01597 -0.01138 -0.00459 2.1098E-05

June 22, 2008 901.5 1.064031 0.064031 -0.01138 0.075407 0.00568625 July 21, 2008 854 0.94731 -0.05269 -0.01138 -0.04131 0.0017068

Aug 21, 2008 872.75 1.021956 0.021956 -0.01138 0.033332 0.00111103

Sep 21, 2008 824.75 0.945001 -0.055 -0.01138 -0.04362 0.00190288

Oct 21, 2008 790.5 0.958472 -0.04153 -0.01138 -0.03015 0.00090909

Nov 20, 2008 828.75 1.048387 0.048387 -0.01138 0.059764 0.0035717

Dec 21, 2008 547.5 0.660633 -0.33937 -0.01138 -0.32799 0.10757741

Jan 21, 2009 506 0.924201 -0.0758 -0.01138 -0.06442 0.00415026

Feb 22, 2009 444 0.87747 -0.12253 -0.01138 -0.11115 0.01235501

Mar 22, 2009 393 0.885135 -0.11486 -0.01138 -0.10349 0.01070983

Apr 21, 2009 411.5 1.047074 0.047074 -0.01138 0.05845 0.00341644

May 21, 2009 391.5 0.951397 -0.0486 -0.01138 -0.03723 0.00138578

June 21, 2009 416.5 1.063857 0.063857 -0.01138 0.075234 0.00566008

July 21, 2009 421.25 1.011405 0.011405 -0.01138 0.022781 0.00051898

Aug 20, 2009 428.5 1.017211 0.017211 -0.01138 0.028587 0.00081723Sep 17, 2009 424 0.989498 -0.0105 -0.01138 0.000875 7.653E-07

Oct 21, 2009 430 1.014151 0.014151 -0.01138 0.025528 0.00065165

Nov 22, 2009 520.5 1.210465 0.210465 -0.01138 0.221842 0.04921373

Dec 21, 2009 545.5 1.048031 0.048031 -0.01138 0.059407 0.00352923

Jan 21, 2010 611 1.120073 0.120073 -0.01138 0.13145 0.01727907

Feb 22, 2010 626.5 1.025368 0.025368 -0.01138 0.036745 0.00135018

Mar 21, 2010 488.5 0.779729 -0.22027 -0.01138 -0.20889 0.04363703

Apr 21, 2010 485.25 0.993347 -0.00665 -0.01138 0.004724 2.2312E-05

May 23, 2010 611.25 1.25966 0.25966 -0.01138 0.271037 0.0734608

June 21, 2010 632.25 1.034356 0.034356 -0.01138 0.045732 0.00209145

-0.3413 0.38173069

exp. Ret. -0.01138 V 0.01272436

SD 0.11280229

Table-02: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of EBL using last

30 month’s data



TRADEDATE Rm-R ̅ m Ebl (Re-R ̅ e) (Rm-R ̅ m)*(Re-R ̅ e) (Rm-R ̅ m)²24-05-201025-05-2010 -0.03784 0.000242189 -9.16403E-06 0.001432

26-05-2010 -0.02342 0.00019516 -4.57006E-06 0.000548

30-05-2010 -0.03097 0.000629914 -1.95071E-05 0.000959

31-05-2010 -0.03686 0.000127023 -4.68154E-06 0.001358

01-06-2010 -0.02991 0.000101833 -3.04587E-06 0.000895

02-06-2010 -0.03948 7.19463E-06 -2.8404E-07 0.001559

03-06-2010 -0.02729 8.64043E-05 -2.35754E-06 0.000744

06-06-2010 -0.03833 0.000549896 -2.10757E-05 0.001469

07-06-2010 -0.05718 0.000118963 -6.80283E-06 0.00327

08-06-2010 -0.01898 3.22607E-05 -6.12312E-07 0.00036

09-06-2010 -0.03472 0.000129468 -4.49465E-06 0.001205

10-06-2010 -0.02689 0.000565255 -1.52006E-05 0.000723

13-06-2010 -0.02596 5.46659E-06 -1.41921E-07 0.00067414-06-2010 -0.03823 3.96629E-05 -1.51648E-06 0.001462

15-06-2010 -0.03477 4.08306E-05 -1.41979E-06 0.001209

16-06-2010 -0.04923 0.000385268 -1.89685E-05 0.002424

20-06-2010 -0.03995 0.000595224 -2.37807E-05 0.001596

21-06-2010 -0.05476 0.000525807 -2.8793E-05 0.002999

22-06-2010 -0.02065 6.30262E-05 -1.30133E-06 0.000426

23-06-2010 -0.04066 0.000120067 -4.88149E-06 0.001653

24-06-2010 -0.03625 3.47065E-05 -1.25796E-06 0.001314

27-06-2010 -0.03225 0.002920517 -9.41908E-05 0.00104

28-06-2010 -0.03797 0.000138075 -5.2426E-06 0.001442

29-06-2010 -0.04268 0.001128988 -4.81831E-05 0.001821

30-06-2010 -0.04089 0.000451182 -1.84469E-05 0.001672

Cov m,e -1.35968E-05 δ² 0.00137

βe -0.00992

Table-03: Calculation of Beta of EBL using recent 25 day’s data



TRADEDATE Index Rm-R ̅ m bl (Re-R ̅ e)(Rm-R ̅ m)*(Re-R ̅ e) (Rm-R ̅ m)²

19-12-2007 2545.99

21-01-2008 2483.52 -0.04988 0.002702 -0.00013475 0.002488

20-02-2008 2400.98 -0.03324 6.54E-05 -2.17418E-06 0.001105

20-03-2008 2554.73 0.064036 0.001534 9.82409E-05 0.004101

21-04-2008 2596.17 0.016221 0.024693 0.000400548 0.000263

21-05-2008 2599.02 0.001098 2.11E-05 2.31606E-08 1.21E-06

22-06-2008 2535.44 -0.02446 0.005686 -0.000139103 0.00059821-07-2008 2453.14 -0.03246 0.001707 -5.54024E-05 0.001054

21-08-2008 2321.95 -0.05348 0.001111 -5.94159E-05 0.00286

21-09-2008 2411.964 0.038767 0.001903 7.37681E-05 0.001503

21-10-2008 2339.562 -0.03002 0.000909 -2.7289E-05 0.000901

20-11-2008 2161.993 -0.0759 0.003572 -0.000271086 0.005761

21-12-2008 2145.708 -0.00753 0.107577 -0.000810316 5.67E-05

21-01-2009 2204.751 0.027517 0.00415 0.000114202 0.000757

22-02-2009 2168.002 -0.01667 0.012355 -0.000205933 0.000278

22-03-2009 2148.162 -0.00915 0.01071 -9.80106E-05 8.37E-05

21-04-2009 2173.052 0.011587 0.003416 3.95851E-05 0.000134

21-05-2009 2125.2 -0.02202 0.001386 -3.05155E-05 0.000485

21-06-2009 2387.41 0.123381 0.00566 0.000698348 0.015223

21-07-2009 2368.065 -0.0081 0.000519 -4.20525E-06 6.57E-05

20-08-2009 2546.548 0.075371 0.000817 6.15953E-05 0.00568117-09-2009 2570.198 0.009287 7.65E-07 7.10735E-09 8.62E-05

21-10-2009 2781.29 0.082131 0.000652 5.35208E-05 0.006745

22-11-2009 3487.805 0.254024 0.049214 0.012501484 0.064528

21-12-2009 3591.401 0.029702 0.003529 0.000104826 0.000882

21-01-2010 4204.067 0.170593 0.017279 0.002947684 0.029102

22-02-2010 4609.515 0.096442 0.00135 0.000130214 0.009301

21-03-2010 4547.321 -0.01349 0.043637 -0.000588777 0.00018221-04-2010 4596.18 0.010745 2.23E-05 2.3973E-07 0.000115

23-05-2010 5010.254 0.090091 0.073461 0.006618154 0.008116

21-06-2010 5061.522 0.010233 0.002091 2.14009E-05 0.000105

Cov m,e 0.000714562 δ² 0.005419

βe 0.131869

Table-04: Calculation of Beta of EBL using last 30 month’s data



TRADEDATE CLSPRC R R ̅ (R-R ̅ ) (R-R ̅ )²24-05-2010 440.75

25-05-2010 463.00 0.050482 -0.00144 0.05192415 0.00269626-05-2010 528.25 0.140929 -0.00144 0.142370743 0.02026930-05-2010 536.50 0.015618 -0.00144 0.017059622 0.00029131-05-2010 523.50 -0.02423 -0.00144 -0.022789111 0.00051901-06-2010 510.75 -0.02436 -0.00144 -0.022913284 0.00052502-06-2010 515.00 0.008321 -0.00144 0.009763113 9.53E-0503-06-2010 516.25 0.002427 -0.00144 0.003869201 1.5E-0506-06-2010 504.75 -0.02228 -0.00144 -0.020834012 0.00043407-06-2010 497.75 -0.01387 -0.00144 -0.012426235 0.00015408-06-2010 504.00 0.012557 -0.00144 0.013998521 0.00019609-06-2010 498.50 -0.01091 -0.00144 -0.009470682 8.97E-0510-06-2010 506.75 0.01655 -0.00144 0.017991666 0.00032413-06-2010 516.75 0.019734 -0.00144 0.021175613 0.00044814-06-2010 511.50 -0.01016 -0.00144 -0.008717635 7.6E-0515-06-2010 508.75 -0.00538 -0.00144 -0.003934327 1.55E-0516-06-2010 518.25 0.018673 -0.00144 0.020115236 0.00040520-06-2010 408.75 -0.21129 -0.00144 -0.209845972 0.04403521-06-2010 403.00 -0.01407 -0.00144 -0.012625261 0.00015922-06-2010 409.25 0.015509 -0.00144 0.016950702 0.00028723-06-2010 403.25 -0.01466 -0.00144 -0.013218948 0.00017524-06-2010 406.50 0.00806 -0.00144 0.009501533 9.03E-0527-06-2010 413.00 0.01599 -0.00144 0.017432177 0.00030428-06-2010 412.00 -0.00242 -0.00144 -0.000979291 9.59E-0729-06-2010 409.00 -0.00728 -0.00144 -0.005839537 3.41E-0530-06-2010 409.00 0 -0.00144 0.001442017 2.08E-06

-0.03605 Σ(R-R ̅ )² 0.071642R ̅ -0.00144 Σ(R-R ̅ )²/n 0.002866

√Σ(R-R ̅ )²/n 0.053532

Table-05: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of Southeast Bank

using recent 25 day’s data



TRADEDATE CLSPRC R R ̅ (R-R ̅ ) (R-R ̅ )²19-12-2007 599

21-01-2008 555.25 -0.07304 -0.01519 -0.05785 0.00334620-02-2008 541.25 -0.02521 -0.01519 -0.01002 0.000120-03-2008 548.50 0.013395 -0.01519 0.028586 0.00081721-04-2008 425.75 -0.22379 -0.01519 -0.2086 0.04351521-05-2008 413.25 -0.02936 -0.01519 -0.01417 0.00020122-06-2008 419.50 0.015124 -0.01519 0.030315 0.00091921-07-2008 397.75 -0.05185 -0.01519 -0.03666 0.00134421-08-2008 404.50 0.01697 -0.01519 0.032161 0.00103421-09-2008 372.00 -0.08035 -0.01519 -0.06516 0.00424521-10-2008 314.50 -0.15457 -0.01519 -0.13938 0.01942720-11-2008 303.00 -0.03657 -0.01519 -0.02138 0.00045721-12-2008 303.00 0 -0.01519 0.015191 0.000231

21-01-2009 285.00 -0.2928 -0.01519 -0.27761 0.07706922-02-2009 264.25 -0.12789 -0.01519 -0.1127 0.01270122-03-2009 283.25 0.071902 -0.01519 0.087092 0.00758521-04-2009 249.00 -0.12092 -0.01519 -0.10573 0.01117821-05-2009 228.00 -0.08434 -0.01519 -0.06915 0.00478121-06-2009 242.00 0.061404 -0.01519 0.076594 0.00586721-07-2009 256.00 0.057851 -0.01519 0.073042 0.00533520-08-2009 272.25 0.063477 -0.01519 0.078667 0.00618917-09-2009 272.25 0 -0.01519 0.015191 0.00023121-10-2009 270.25 -0.00735 -0.01519 0.007844 6.15E-0522-11-2009 313.75 0.160962 -0.01519 0.176153 0.0310321-12-2009 325.00 0.035857 -0.01519 0.051047 0.00260621-01-2010 356.50 0.096923 -0.01519 0.112114 0.01256922-02-2010 460.00 0.290323 -0.01519 0.305513 0.093338

21-03-2010 338.50 -0.26413 -0.01519 -0.24894 0.06197121-04-2010 335.75 -0.00812 -0.01519 0.007067 4.99E-0523-05-2010 454.50 0.353686 -0.01519 0.368876 0.1360721-06-2010 403.00 -0.11331 -0.01519 -0.09812 0.009628

-0.45572 Σ(R-R ̅ )² 0.553895R ̅ -0.01519 Σ(R-R ̅ )²/n 0.018463

√Σ(R-R ̅ )²/ 0.135879



Table-06: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of Southeast Bank

using last 30 month’s data

TRADEDATE Rm-R ̅ m South East (Rs-R ̅ s) Rm-R ̅ m)*(Rs-R ̅ s) (Rm-R ̅ m)²

24-05-201025-05-2010 -0.03784 0.05192415 -0.001964725 0.001432

26-05-2010 -0.02342 0.142370743 -0.003333893 0.00054830-05-2010 -0.03097 0.017059622 -0.000528299 0.000959

31-05-2010 -0.03686 -0.022789111 0.000839915 0.001358

01-06-2010 -0.02991 -0.022913284 0.000685344 0.00089502-06-2010 -0.03948 0.009763113 -0.000385442 0.001559

03-06-2010 -0.02729 0.003869201 -0.000105571 0.000744

06-06-2010 -0.03833 -0.020834012 0.0007985 0.001469

07-06-2010 -0.05718 -0.012426235 0.000710586 0.00327

08-06-2010 -0.01898 0.013998521 -0.000265694 0.0003609-06-2010 -0.03472 -0.009470682 0.000328787 0.001205

10-06-2010 -0.02689 0.017991666 -0.000483824 0.000723

13-06-2010 -0.02596 0.021175613 -0.000549752 0.000674

14-06-2010 -0.03823 -0.008717635 0.000333312 0.001462

15-06-2010 -0.03477 -0.003934327 0.000136807 0.001209

16-06-2010 -0.04923 0.020115236 -0.000990365 0.00242420-06-2010 -0.03995 -0.209845972 0.008383866 0.001596

21-06-2010 -0.05476 -0.012625261 0.000691355 0.00299922-06-2010 -0.02065 0.016950702 -0.000349989 0.000426

23-06-2010 -0.04066 -0.013218948 0.000537437 0.001653

24-06-2010 -0.03625 0.009501533 -0.00034439 0.001314

27-06-2010 -0.03225 0.017432177 -0.000562212 0.00104

28-06-2010 -0.03797 -0.000979291 3.71828E-05 0.00144229-06-2010 -0.04268 -0.005839537 0.000249221 0.001821

30-06-2010 -0.04089 0.001442017 -5.8958E-05 0.001672

Cov m,s 0.000152368 δ² 0.00137

βs 0.111203

Table-07: Calculation of Beta of Southeast Bank using recent 25 day’s data



TRADEDATE Index Rm-R ̅ m SE (Rs-R ̅ s) (Rm-R ̅ m)*(Rs-R ̅ s) (Rm-R ̅ m)²

19-12-2007 2545.99

21-01-2008 2483.52 -0.04988 -0.057847716 0.002885185 0.002488

20-02-2008 2400.98 -0.03324 -0.010023186 0.000333121 0.001105

20-03-2008 2554.73 0.064036 0.028585601 0.001830518 0.004101

21-04-2008 2596.17 0.016221 -0.208601479 -0.003383702 0.000263

21-05-2008 2599.02 0.001098 -0.014169271 -1.55546E-05 1.21E-06

22-06-2008 2535.44 -0.02446 0.030314699 -0.000741591 0.00059821-07-2008 2453.14 -0.03246 -0.036656756 0.001189873 0.001054

21-08-2008 2321.95 -0.05348 0.032161141 -0.001719926 0.00286

21-09-2008 2411.964 0.038767 -0.065155425 -0.002525852 0.001503

21-10-2008 2339.562 -0.03002 -0.139379211 0.004183857 0.000901

20-11-2008 2161.993 -0.0759 -0.021375296 0.001622353 0.005761

21-12-2008 2145.708 -0.00753 0.015190682 -0.000114422 5.67E-05

21-01-2009 2204.751 0.027517 -0.277613288 -0.007639017 0.000757

22-02-2009 2168.002 -0.01667 -0.112697107 0.001878435 0.00027822-03-2009 2148.162 -0.00915 0.08709229 -0.000797022 8.37E-05

21-04-2009 2173.052 0.011587 -0.105727235 -0.001225024 0.000134

21-05-2009 2125.2 -0.02202 -0.069146668 0.001522638 0.000485

21-06-2009 2387.41 0.123381 0.076594191 0.009450283 0.015223

21-07-2009 2368.065 -0.0081 0.073041921 -0.000591853 6.57E-05

20-08-2009 2546.548 0.075371 0.078667244 0.005929213 0.00568117-09-2009 2570.198 0.009287 0.015190682 0.000141076 8.62E-05

21-10-2009 2781.29 0.082131 0.007844493 0.000644274 0.006745

22-11-2009 3487.805 0.254024 0.176152754 0.044747083 0.064528

21-12-2009 3591.401 0.029702 0.051047256 0.001516214 0.000882

21-01-2010 4204.067 0.170593 0.112113759 0.019125787 0.029102

22-02-2010 4609.515 0.096442 0.305513262 0.029464248 0.009301

21-03-2010 4547.321 -0.01349 -0.248939753 0.003358843 0.00018221-04-2010 4596.18 0.010745 0.007066605 7.59272E-05 0.000115

23-05-2010 5010.254 0.090091 0.36887646 0.033232436 0.008116

21-06-2010 5061.522 0.010233 -0.098120649 -0.001004025 0.000105

Cov m,s 0.004779113 δ² 0.005419

βs 0.881965

Table-08: Calculation of Beta of Southeast Bank using last 30 month’s data



TRADEDATE CLSPRC R R ̅ (R-R ̅ ) (R-R ̅ )²19-12-2007 6,964.25

21-01-2008 6,716.25

-0.03561 0.000735 -0.03634557 0.00132120-02-2008 6,828.75 0.01675 0.000735 0.016015288 0.00025620-03-2008 9,195.75 0.346623 0.000735 0.345887604 0.11963821-04-2008 11,300.75 0.22891 0.000735 0.228174963 0.05206421-05-2008 8,607.50 -0.23832 0.000735 -0.239060021 0.0571522-06-2008 7,530.25 -0.12515 0.000735 -0.125887614 0.01584821-07-2008 7,216.00 -0.04173 0.000735 -0.042466813 0.00180321-08-2008 7,159.00 -0.0079 0.000735 -0.008634244 7.46E-0521-09-2008 7,871.50 0.099525 0.000735 0.098789942 0.00975921-10-2008 7,577.00 -0.03741 0.000735 -0.038148585 0.00145520-11-2008 7,561.25 -0.00208 0.000735 -0.00281379 7.92E-0621-12-2008 7,688.75 0.016862 0.000735 0.01612716 0.0002621-01-2009 7,719.50 0.003999 0.000735 0.003264219 1.07E-0522-02-2009 8,005.50 0.037049 0.000735 0.036313901 0.00131922-03-2009 8,653.75

0.080976 0.000735 0.080240448 0.00643921-04-2009 8,261.25 -0.04536 0.000735 -0.04609119 0.00212421-05-2009 8,422.00 0.019458 0.000735 0.018723183 0.00035121-06-2009 6,704.00 -0.20399 0.000735 -0.204724682 0.04191221-07-2009 6,720.25 0.002424 0.000735 0.001688795 2.85E-0620-08-2009 7,103.25 0.056992 0.000735 0.056256796 0.00316517-09-2009 7,656.00 0.077816 0.000735 0.077081362 0.00594221-10-2009 8,557.00 0.117685 0.000735 0.116950345 0.01367722-11-2009 9,968.00 0.164894 0.000735 0.164159108 0.02694821-12-2009 11,487.00 0.152388 0.000735 0.15165251 0.02299821-01-2010 12,424.50 0.081614 0.000735 0.080878867 0.00654122-02-2010 11,758.75 -0.05358 0.000735 -0.054318776 0.00295121-03-2010 11,780.00 0.001807 0.000735 0.001072034 1.15E-0621-04-2010 12,003.25 0.018952 0.000735 0.018216482 0.00033223-05-2010 11,439.50 -0.04697 0.000735 -0.047701578 0.00227521-06-2010 11,153.50 -0.025 0.000735 -0.025736224 0.000662

0.022054 Σ(R-R ̅ )² 0.397289R ̅ 0.000735 Σ(R-R ̅ )²/n 0.013243

√Σ(R-R ̅ )²/n 0.115078



Table-10: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of Renata using

last 30 month’s data

TRADEDATE Rm-R ̅ m reneta (Rre-R ̅ re) (Rm-R ̅ m)*(Rre -R ̅ re) (Rm-R ̅ m)²

24-05-2010

25-05-2010 -0.03784 0.051435381 -0.001946231 0.001432

26-05-2010 -0.02342 0.017974315 -0.000420904 0.000548

30-05-2010 -0.03097 0.003801291 -0.000117718 0.000959

31-05-2010 -0.03686 -0.031811663 0.001172449 0.001358

01-06-2010 -0.02991 0.001216007 -3.63712E-05 0.00089502-06-2010 -0.03948 -0.009189708 0.000362804 0.001559

03-06-2010 -0.02729 -0.003180897 8.67909E-05 0.00074406-06-2010 -0.03833 -0.02127221 0.000815295 0.001469

07-06-2010 -0.05718 0.001637184 -9.36213E-05 0.00327

08-06-2010 -0.01898 -0.028721145 0.000545131 0.00036

09-06-2010 -0.03472 0.005597248 -0.000194315 0.001205

10-06-2010 -0.02689 -0.000453087 1.21842E-05 0.000723

13-06-2010 -0.02596 -0.001307864 3.39542E-05 0.000674

14-06-2010 -0.03823 -0.007036343 0.000269029 0.001462

15-06-2010 -0.03477 -0.009939271 0.000345615 0.001209

16-06-2010 -0.04923 0.010585456 -0.000521171 0.002424

20-06-2010 -0.03995 -0.002248301 8.98252E-05 0.001596

21-06-2010 -0.05476 -0.011755355 0.000643719 0.00299922-06-2010 -0.02065 0.001034118 -2.13519E-05 0.000426

23-06-2010 -0.04066 -0.001989958 8.09048E-05 0.001653

24-06-2010 -0.03625 -0.0037676 0.000136559 0.00131427-06-2010 -0.03225 0.001894891 -6.11129E-05 0.00104

28-06-2010 -0.03797 -0.012705833 0.00048243 0.00144229-06-2010 -0.04268 -0.005923853 0.000252819 0.001821

30-06-2010 -0.04089 -0.039844632 0.001629078 0.001672

Cov m,r 0.000141832 δ² 0.00137

βre 0.103513

Table-11: Calculation of Beta of Renata using recent 25 day’s data



TRADEDATE Index Rm-R ̅ m reneta (Rre-R ̅ re) (Rm-R ̅ m)*(Rre-R ̅ re) (Rm-R ̅ m)²

19-12-2007 2545.99

21-01-2008 2483.52 -0.04988 -0.03634557 0.001812754 0.002488

20-02-2008 2400.98 -0.03324 0.016015288 -0.000532269 0.001105

20-03-2008 2554.73 0.064036 0.345887604 0.02214938 0.004101

21-04-2008 2596.17 0.016221 0.228174963 0.003701201 0.000263

21-05-2008 2599.02 0.001098 -0.239060021 -0.000262433 1.21E-06

22-06-2008 2535.44 -0.02446 -0.125887614 0.003079597 0.00059821-07-2008 2453.14 -0.03246 -0.042466813 0.001378466 0.001054

21-08-2008 2321.95 -0.05348 -0.008634244 0.000461746 0.00286

21-09-2008 2411.964 0.038767 0.098789942 0.003829746 0.001503

21-10-2008 2339.562 -0.03002 -0.038148585 0.001145137 0.000901

20-11-2008 2161.993 -0.0759 -0.00281379 0.000213562 0.005761

21-12-2008 2145.708 -0.00753 0.01612716 -0.000121476 5.67E-05

21-01-2009 2204.751 0.027517 0.003264219 8.98207E-05 0.000757

22-02-2009 2168.002 -0.01667 0.036313901 -0.00060528 0.000278

22-03-2009 2148.162 -0.00915 0.080240448 -0.000734318 8.37E-05

21-04-2009 2173.052 0.011587 -0.04609119 -0.000534042 0.000134

21-05-2009 2125.2 -0.02202 0.018723183 -0.000412292 0.000485

21-06-2009 2387.41 0.123381 -0.204724682 -0.025259177 0.015223

21-07-2009 2368.065 -0.0081 0.001688795 -1.36842E-05 6.57E-05

20-08-2009 2546.548 0.075371 0.056256796 0.00424012 0.00568117-09-2009 2570.198 0.009287 0.077081362 0.000715858 8.62E-05

21-10-2009 2781.29 0.082131 0.116950345 0.009605223 0.006745

22-11-2009 3487.805 0.254024 0.164159108 0.041700405 0.064528

21-12-2009 3591.401 0.029702 0.15165251 0.004504408 0.000882

21-01-2010 4204.067 0.170593 0.080878867 0.013797343 0.029102

22-02-2010 4609.515 0.096442 -0.054318776 -0.0052386 0.009301

21-03-2010 4547.321 -0.01349 0.001072034 -1.44645E-05 0.000182

21-04-2010 4596.18 0.010745 0.018216482 0.000195727 0.000115

23-05-2010 5010.254 0.090091 -0.047701578 -0.004297481 0.008116

21-06-2010 5061.522 0.010233 -0.025736224 -0.000263347 0.000105

Cov m,r 0.002477721 δ² 0.005419

βre 0.457253

Table-12: Calculation of Beta of Renata using last 30 month’s data



Day Price (tk.) HPR HPY(R) R-R' (R-R')(R-R')25-05-2010 1,262.25

26-05-2010 1,292.25

1.023767 0.023767 0.015097 0.00022791930-05-2010 1,339.75 1.036758 0.036758 0.028087 0.00078890731-05-2010 1,364.25 1.018287 0.018287 0.009617 9.24845E-0501-06-2010 1,369.00 1.003482 0.003482 -0.00519 2.69189E-0502-06-2010 1,359.25 0.992878 -0.00712 -0.01579 0.0002493903-06-2010 1,349.00 0.992459 -0.00754 -0.01621 0.00026279806-06-2010 1,321.75 0.9798 -0.0202 -0.02887 0.00083349207-06-2010 1,301.25 0.98449 -0.01551 -0.02418 0.00058466508-06-2010 1,309.25 1.006148 0.006148 -0.00252 6.36135E-0609-06-2010 1,346.50 1.028451 0.028451 0.019781 0.000391310-06-2010 1,446.75 1.074452 0.074452 0.065782 0.00432729513-06-2010 1,538.75 1.063591 0.063591 0.054921 0.00301628314-06-2010 1,512.00 0.982616 -0.01738 -0.02605 0.00067882915-06-2010 1,496.50 0.989749 -0.01025 -0.01892 0.00035802116-06-2010 1,397.25

0.933679 -0.06632 -0.07499 0.00562372917-06-2010 1,412.50 1.010914 0.010914 0.002244 5.03638E-0620-06-2010 1,362.75 0.964779 -0.03522 -0.04389 0.0019264521-06-2010 1,360.25 0.998165 -0.00183 -0.0105 0.00011034722-06-2010 1,398.00 1.027752 0.027752 0.019082 0.00036412823-06-2010 1,408.25 1.007332 0.007332 -0.00134 1.79079E-0624-06-2010 1,408.00 0.999822 -0.00018 -0.00885 7.82806E-0527-06-2010 1,433.25 1.017933 0.017933 0.009263 8.58056E-0528-06-2010 1,537.75 1.072911 0.072911 0.064241 0.0041269229-06-2010 1,532.50 0.996586 -0.00341 -0.01208 0.00014602830-06-2010 1,547.75 1.009951 0.009951 0.001281 1.64084E-06

0.216753 0.024314818

ExpectedR 0.00867 V 0.000972593

SD 0.031186419

Table-05: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of ULC using

recent 25 day’s data



Day Price (tk.) HPR HPY(R) R-R' (R-R')(R-R')

Dec 19, 2007 659.75

Jan 21, 2008 635 0.962486 -0.03751 -0.0784 0.006145802

Feb 20, 2008 620.5 0.977165 -0.02283 -0.06372 0.004059678

Mar 20, 2008 631 1.016922 0.016922 -0.02396 0.000574039

Apr 21, 2008 825.5 1.308241 0.308241 0.26736 0.071481334

May 21, 2008 969.75 1.174743 0.174743 0.133862 0.017918935 June 22, 2008 873 0.900232 -0.09977 -0.14065 0.019782123

July 21, 2008 803.25 0.920103 -0.0799 -0.12078 0.014587292

Aug 21, 2008 756.25 0.941488 -0.05851 -0.09939 0.009879018

Sep 21, 2008 796.5 1.053223 0.053223 0.012342 0.00015233

Oct 21, 2008 794 0.996861 -0.00314 -0.04402 0.001937733

Nov 20, 2008 689.75 0.868703 -0.1313 -0.17218 0.029645327

Dec 21, 2008 725.25 1.051468 0.051468 0.010587 0.000112084

Jan 21, 2009 743.5 1.025164 0.025164 -0.01572 0.000247031

Feb 22, 2009 823.5 1.107599 0.107599 0.066718 0.004451323

Mar 22, 2009 623.5 0.757134 -0.24287 -0.28375 0.08051223

Apr 21, 2009 679 1.089014 0.089014 0.048133 0.002316755

May 21, 2009 676.25 0.99595 -0.00405 -0.04493 0.002018797

June 21, 2009 800.75 1.184104 0.184104 0.143223 0.020512701

July 21, 2009 750.75 0.937559 -0.06244 -0.10332 0.010675521

Aug 20, 2009 903.25 1.20313 0.20313 0.162249 0.026324819

Sep 17, 2009 907 1.004152 0.004152 -0.03673 0.00134904

Oct 21, 2009 1145.75 1.26323 0.26323 0.222349 0.04943929

Nov 22, 2009 1441.5 1.258128 0.258128 0.217247 0.04719622

Dec 21, 2009 1452 1.007284 0.007284 -0.0336 0.00112875

Jan 21, 2010 1754.5 1.208333 0.208333 0.167452 0.028040299

Feb 22, 2010 2129 1.213451 0.213451 0.17257 0.029780464

Mar 21, 2010 1005 0.472053 -0.52795 -0.56883 0.323565688

Apr 21, 2010 1092 1.086567 0.086567 0.045686 0.00208723

May 23, 2010 1338.25 1.225504 0.225504 0.184623 0.034085545

June 21, 2010 1360.25 1.016439 0.016439 -0.02444 0.0005973911.226429 0.840604787

Exp. Ret. 0.040881 v 0.02802016

SD 0.167392233

Table-14: Calculation of Expected Return and Standard Deviation of ULC using last

30 month’s data



TRADEDATE Rm-R ̅ m ULC (Ru-R ̅ u) (Rm-R ̅ m)*(Ru-R ̅ u) (Rm-R ̅ m)²24-05-201025-05-2010 -0.03784 0.000227919 -8.62407E-06 0.001432

26-05-2010 -0.02342 0.000788907 -1.84738E-05 0.000548

30-05-2010 -0.03097 9.24845E-05 -2.86404E-06 0.000959

31-05-2010 -0.03686 2.69189E-05 -9.92121E-07 0.001358

01-06-2010 -0.02991 0.00024939 -7.45934E-06 0.000895

02-06-2010 -0.03948 0.000262798 -1.03751E-05 0.001559

03-06-2010 -0.02729 0.000833492 -2.27419E-05 0.000744

06-06-2010 -0.03833 0.000584665 -2.24083E-05 0.001469

07-06-2010 -0.05718 6.36135E-06 -3.6377E-07 0.00327

08-06-2010 -0.01898 0.0003913 -7.42691E-06 0.00036

09-06-2010 -0.03472 0.004327295 -0.000150227 0.001205

10-06-2010 -0.02689 0.003016283 -8.11126E-05 0.000723

13-06-2010 -0.02596 0.000678829 -1.76235E-05 0.00067414-06-2010 -0.03823 0.000358021 -1.36887E-05 0.001462

15-06-2010 -0.03477 0.005623729 -0.000195552 0.001209

16-06-2010 -0.04923 5.03638E-06 -2.47964E-07 0.002424

20-06-2010 -0.03995 0.00192645 -7.69665E-05 0.001596

21-06-2010 -0.05476 0.000110347 -6.04258E-06 0.002999

22-06-2010 -0.02065 0.000364128 -7.51833E-06 0.000426

23-06-2010 -0.04066 1.79079E-06 -7.28074E-08 0.001653

24-06-2010 -0.03625 7.82806E-05 -2.83734E-06 0.001314

27-06-2010 -0.03225 8.58056E-05 -2.76735E-06 0.00104

28-06-2010 -0.03797 0.00412692 -0.000156696 0.001442

29-06-2010 -0.04268 0.000146028 -6.23219E-06 0.001821

30-06-2010 -0.04089 1.64084E-06 -6.7087E-08 0.001672

Cov m,s -3.27752E-05 δ² 0.00137

β -0.02392

Table-15: Calculation of Beta of ULC using recent 25 day’s data



TRADEDATE Index Rm-R ̅ m ULC (Ru-R ̅ u) (Rm-R ̅ m)*(Ru-R ̅ u) (Rm-R ̅ m)²

19-12-2007 2545.99

21-01-2008 2483.52 -0.04988 0.006145802 -0.000306525 0.002488

20-02-2008 2400.98 -0.03324 0.004059678 -0.000134924 0.001105

20-03-2008 2554.73 0.064036 0.000574039 3.67594E-05 0.004101

21-04-2008 2596.17 0.016221 0.071481334 0.001159491 0.000263

21-05-2008 2599.02 0.001098 0.017918935 1.96709E-05 1.21E-06

22-06-2008 2535.44 -0.02446 0.019782123 -0.000483931 0.00059821-07-2008 2453.14 -0.03246 0.014587292 -0.000473501 0.001054

21-08-2008 2321.95 -0.05348 0.009879018 -0.000528314 0.00286

21-09-2008 2411.964 0.038767 0.00015233 5.90529E-06 0.001503

21-10-2008 2339.562 -0.03002 0.001937733 -5.81665E-05 0.000901

20-11-2008 2161.993 -0.0759 0.029645327 -0.002250036 0.005761

21-12-2008 2145.708 -0.00753 0.000112084 -8.44261E-07 5.67E-05

21-01-2009 2204.751 0.027517 0.000247031 6.79749E-06 0.000757

22-02-2009 2168.002 -0.01667 0.004451323 -7.41946E-05 0.00027822-03-2009 2148.162 -0.00915 0.08051223 -0.000736805 8.37E-05

21-04-2009 2173.052 0.011587 0.002316755 2.68434E-05 0.000134

21-05-2009 2125.2 -0.02202 0.002018797 -4.44547E-05 0.000485

21-06-2009 2387.41 0.123381 0.020512701 0.002530882 0.015223

21-07-2009 2368.065 -0.0081 0.010675521 -8.65029E-05 6.57E-05

20-08-2009 2546.548 0.075371 0.026324819 0.001984123 0.00568117-09-2009 2570.198 0.009287 0.00134904 1.25286E-05 8.62E-05

21-10-2009 2781.29 0.082131 0.04943929 0.004060487 0.006745

22-11-2009 3487.805 0.254024 0.04719622 0.011988987 0.064528

21-12-2009 3591.401 0.029702 0.00112875 3.35263E-05 0.000882

21-01-2010 4204.067 0.170593 0.028040299 0.00478347 0.029102

22-02-2010 4609.515 0.096442 0.029780464 0.002872081 0.009301

21-03-2010 4547.321 -0.01349 0.323565688 -0.004365741 0.000182

21-04-2010 4596.18 0.010745 0.00208723 2.24263E-05 0.000115

23-05-2010 5010.254 0.090091 0.034085545 0.0030708 0.008116

21-06-2010 5061.522 0.010233 0.000597391 6.11283E-06 0.000105

Cov m,u 0.000769232 δ² 0.005419

βu 0.141958

Table-16: Calculation of Beta of ULC using last 30 month’s data



P R PR R' R-R' (R-R')(R-R') P(R-R')(R-R')

weak 0.45 -0.33 -0.1485 -0.142 -0.188 0.035344 0.0159048

medium 0.35 -0.13 -0.0455 -0.142 0.012 0.000144 5.04E-05

strong 0.2 0.26 0.052 -0.142 0.402 0.161604 0.0323208

R' -0.142 V 0.048276

SD 0.219718001


weak 0.35 -0.15 -0.0525 0.05481 -0.20481 0.041947136 0.014681498

medium 0.35 0.0066 0.00231 0.05481 -0.04821 0.002324204 0.000813471

strong 0.3 0.35 0.105 0.05481 0.29519 0.087137136 0.026141141

R' 0.05481 V 0.04163611

SD 0.204049283


weak 0.2 -0.2 -0.04 0.0276 -0.2276 0.05180176 0.010360352

medium 0.4 0.009 0.0036 0.0276 -0.0186 0.00034596 0.000138384

strong 0.4 0.16 0.064 0.0276 0.1324 0.01752976 0.007011904

R' 0.0276 V 0.01751064SD 0.132327775

P R PR R' R-R' (R-R')(R-R') P(R-R')(R-R')weak 0.25 -0.24 -0.06 0.0425 -0.2825 0.07980625 0.019951563

medium 0.5 0.05 0.025 0.0425 0.0075 0.00005625 0.000028125

strong 0.25 0.31 0.0775 0.0425 0.2675 0.07155625 0.017889063

R' 0.0425 V 0.03786875

SD 0.194598947

Estern Bank

Southeast Bank

Renata Limited

United Leasing

Ta



ble 17: Calculation of Risk and Return Based ob probability

Analysis of Probability

For measuring probability, we analysis the previous 2 years prices of the

shares. We estimate the probability for next 2 years.

In the case of EBL, we saw that the price of the share is reducing constantly.

Its return is negative and risk is high. So we estimate that possibility of

reducing of the price of share is very high and we are more risk averse, so

take more probability in weak point.

In the case of Southeast Bank Limited, we saw that the price of this share is

fluctuating in a limited range. So take equal probability in weak and medium

point and less probability in strong point, because we are more risk averse.

In the case of Renata Limited, condition of the price of this share is good.

Especially last 30 months, price of this share was increasing averagely. So

we take more probability in strong and medium point.

In the case of ULC, return is positive in both 30 months and 25 days

calculation and price of this share was increasing in medium range. So we

take more probability in medium point.



Stock A Stock B Stock C Stock D

Estern Bank Southeast Bank Renata Limited United Leasing

-0.05197804 -0.057847716 -0.03634557 -0.078395164

-0.008088157 -0.010023186 0.016015288 -0.0637156

0.039168127 0.028585601 0.345887604 -0.023959117

-0.157141061 -0.208601479 0.228174963 0.267359934

-0.004593239 -0.014169271 -0.239060021 0.133861626

0.075407251 0.030314699 -0.125887614 -0.140648935-0.041313398 -0.036656756 -0.042466813 -0.120777861

0.033332067 0.032161141 -0.008634244 -0.099393248

-0.043622004 -0.065155425 0.098789942 0.012342187

-0.030151172 -0.139379211 -0.038148585 -0.044019686

0.05976366 -0.021375296 -0.00281379 -0.172178183

-0.327989953 0.015190682 0.01612716 0.010586969

-0.064422523 -0.277613288 0.003264219 -0.015717217

-0.111153081 -0.112697107 0.036313901 0.066718239

-0.103488302 0.08709229 0.080240448 -0.28374677

0.058450355 -0.105727235 -0.04609119 0.048132679

-0.03722611 -0.069146668 0.018723183 -0.044931027

0.075233524 0.076594191 -0.204724682 0.143222558

0.022781125 0.073041921 0.001688795 -0.103322415

0.028587246 0.078667244 0.056256796 0.1622492490.000874813 0.015190682 0.077081362 -0.036729279

0.025527507 0.007844493 0.116950345 0.222349476

0.22184168 0.176152754 0.164159108 0.21724691

0.059407303 0.051047256 0.15165251 -0.033596875

0.131449891 0.112113759 0.080878867 0.167452379

0.036744812 0.305513262 -0.054318776 0.172570172

-0.208894785 -0.248939753 0.001072034 -0.568828347

0.004723544 0.007066605 0.018216482 0.04568621

0.271036532 0.36887646 -0.047701578 0.184622709

0.045732392 -0.098120649 -0.025736224 -0.024441574

COV a,b 30 month 0.009533072 COV c,d 30 month 0.001864109

r_ab 0.011483332 r_cd 0.002711528

Table-18: Calculation of Coefficient of Variance and Co-relation of Portfolio (a,b) &

(c,d) based on last 30 month’s data



Stock A Stock C Stock B Stock DEstern Bank Renata Limited Southeast Bank United Leasing

-0.05197804 -0.03634557 -0.057847716 -0.078395164

-0.008088157 0.016015288 -0.010023186 -0.0637156

0.039168127 0.345887604 0.028585601 -0.023959117

-0.157141061 0.228174963 -0.208601479 0.267359934

-0.004593239 -0.239060021 -0.014169271 0.133861626

0.075407251 -0.125887614 0.030314699 -0.140648935

-0.041313398 -0.042466813 -0.036656756 -0.120777861

0.033332067 -0.008634244 0.032161141 -0.099393248

-0.043622004 0.098789942 -0.065155425 0.012342187

-0.030151172 -0.038148585 -0.139379211 -0.044019686

0.05976366 -0.00281379 -0.021375296 -0.172178183

-0.327989953 0.01612716 0.015190682 0.010586969

-0.064422523 0.003264219 -0.277613288 -0.015717217-0.111153081 0.036313901 -0.112697107 0.066718239

-0.103488302 0.080240448 0.08709229 -0.28374677

0.058450355 -0.04609119 -0.105727235 0.048132679

-0.03722611 0.018723183 -0.069146668 -0.044931027

0.075233524 -0.204724682 0.076594191 0.143222558

0.022781125 0.001688795 0.073041921 -0.103322415

0.028587246 0.056256796 0.078667244 0.162249249

0.000874813 0.077081362 0.015190682 -0.036729279

0.025527507 0.116950345 0.007844493 0.222349476

0.22184168 0.164159108 0.176152754 0.21724691

0.059407303 0.15165251 0.051047256 -0.033596875

0.131449891 0.080878867 0.112113759 0.167452379

0.036744812 -0.054318776 0.305513262 0.172570172

-0.208894785 0.001072034 -0.248939753 -0.5688283470.004723544 0.018216482 0.007066605 0.04568621

0.271036532 -0.047701578 0.36887646 0.184622709

0.045732392 -0.025736224 -0.098120649 -0.024441574

COV a,c 30 month -0.00076397 COV b,d 30 month 0.008698694

r_ac -0.004574406 r_bd 0.010716091

Table-19: Calculation of Coefficient of Variance and Co-relation of Portfolio (a,c) &

(b,d) based on last 30 month’s data



Stock A Stock B Stock C Stock D

Estern Bank Southeast Bank Renata Limited United Leasing

0.015562415 0.05192415 0.051435381 0.015096975

0.013969964 0.142370743 0.017974315 0.028087486

-0.025098079 0.017059622 0.003801291 0.009616887

-0.011270428 -0.022789111 -0.031811663 -0.005188341

-0.010091252 -0.022913284 0.001216007 -0.015792094

-0.002682281 0.009763113 -0.009189708 -0.016211031-0.00929539 0.003869201 -0.003180897 -0.028870256

-0.02344987 -0.020834012 -0.02127221 -0.024179848

0.01090702 -0.012426235 0.001637184 -0.002522173

0.005679851 0.013998521 -0.028721145 0.019781296

0.011378414 -0.009470682 0.005597248 0.065782176

0.023775085 0.017991666 -0.000453087 0.0549207

-0.002338075 0.021175613 -0.001307864 -0.026054348-0.006297846 -0.008717635 -0.007036343 -0.01892143

0.006389879 -0.003934327 -0.009939271 -0.074991524

-0.01962824 0.020115236 0.010585456 0.002244189

0.024397213 -0.209845972 -0.002248301 -0.043891346

-0.022930471 -0.012625261 -0.011755355 -0.010504633

0.007938907 0.016950702 0.001034118 0.019082144

-0.010957487 -0.013218948 -0.001989958 -0.001338205-0.005891218 0.009501533 -0.0037676 -0.008847633

0.054041811 0.017432177 0.001894891 0.009263131

-0.011750548 -0.000979291 -0.012705833 0.064241108

-0.033600424 -0.005839537 -0.005923853 -0.012084186

0.021241048 0.001442017 -0.039844632 0.001280953

COV a,b 25 days -1.17448E-05 COV c,d 25 days 9.7043E-05

r_ab -1.06654E-05 r_cd 0.000173406

Table-20: Calculation of Coefficient of Variance and Co-relation of Portfolio (a,b) &

(c,d) based on recent 25 days data



Stock A Stock C Stock B Stock D

Estern Bank Renata Limited Southeast Bank United Leasing

0.015562415 0.051435381 0.05192415 0.015096975

0.013969964 0.017974315 0.142370743 0.028087486-0.025098079 0.003801291 0.017059622 0.009616887

-0.011270428 -0.031811663 -0.022789111 -0.005188341

-0.010091252 0.001216007 -0.022913284 -0.015792094

-0.002682281 -0.009189708 0.009763113 -0.016211031

-0.00929539 -0.003180897 0.003869201 -0.028870256

-0.02344987 -0.02127221 -0.020834012 -0.024179848

0.01090702 0.001637184 -0.012426235 -0.002522173

0.005679851 -0.028721145 0.013998521 0.019781296

0.011378414 0.005597248 -0.009470682 0.065782176

0.023775085 -0.000453087 0.017991666 0.0549207

-0.002338075 -0.001307864 0.021175613 -0.026054348

-0.006297846 -0.007036343 -0.008717635 -0.01892143

0.006389879 -0.009939271 -0.003934327 -0.074991524

-0.01962824 0.010585456 0.020115236 0.0022441890.024397213 -0.002248301 -0.209845972 -0.043891346

-0.022930471 -0.011755355 -0.012625261 -0.010504633

0.007938907 0.001034118 0.016950702 0.019082144

-0.010957487 -0.001989958 -0.013218948 -0.001338205

-0.005891218 -0.0037676 0.009501533 -0.008847633

0.054041811 0.001894891 0.017432177 0.009263131

-0.011750548 -0.012705833 -0.000979291 0.064241108

-0.033600424 -0.005923853 -0.005839537 -0.012084186

0.021241048 -0.039844632 0.001442017 0.001280953

COV a,c 25 days 5.64204E-05 COV b,d 25 days 0.000642342

r_ac 5.12351E-05 r_bd 0.000374213



Table-21: Calculation of Coefficient of Variance and Co-relation of Portfolio (a,c) &

(b,d) based on recent 25 day’s data

EBL Renata EBL Southeast

R -0.142 0.0276 -0.142 0.05481

SD 0.219718 0.132328 0.219718 0.204049

w 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9

Port. Ret. 0.01064 0.035129

0.01 0.01

0.81 0.81

0.048276 0.048276

0.017511 0.041636

0.18 0.18

0.014529 0.03407

δ²port 0.120536 0.184582



Renata ULC Southeast ULC

R 0.0276 0.0425 0.05481 0.0425SD 0.132328 0.194599 0.204049 0.194599

w 0.75 0.25 0.2 0.8

Port. Ret. 0.031325 0.044962

0.5625 0.04

0.0625 0.64

0.017511 0.041636

0.037869 0.037869

0.375 0.32

0.01193 0.025657

δ²port 0.109225 0.160178

Table-22: Investment decisions in different Weights

Our Investment Allocation

We decide to invest our money in Portfolio C,D (Renata Limited and United

Leasing) and our investment weight is .75 and .25. Portfolio return of this

portfolio is .031 and risk is .109 that less risky than other portfolio.

Coefficient of variance and co-relation are also lower of this portfolio.

Similarly Beta of both shares is also low.

On the other hand, we again calculated the HPY of both shares in August 02,

2010 and we took June 30, 2010’s price as beginning value.

HPY of Renata is .05963 and .07785. This is positive result, so decide to

invest in this portfolio.



Comment on the Overall all Impact of Different

Information and events on Bangladesh Stock Market

• The situation of our economy is not good, but the condition of our

stock markets is very good because of over cash flow in the market.

• Recently SEC reduces the loan ratio 1:1.5 to 1:1. For that reason,

markets are fallen down for short time. But the market is now very

well.

• Sometimes markets were fallen down in last 3 months for different

rumours. But these was in short term not in long term.

• Recently share of Rak Ceramics and United Airways come to the

market. But there was not any strong impact in the market for these

reasons.

• In last Hartal day (JUNE 27, 2010), the transactions in the markets

were really surprising. On previous hartal days, the transactions were

reduced in most of the times. So it is a good impact on the markets.

Conclusion

Finally, we can say that it is not possible to indentify the best investment

opportunity in the market. So in this report paper we just decide to invest in

a portfolio, after analysing different things and based on our estimation. We

can not say that it the best investment opportunity. But we try our best to

analysis the portfolios.

analysing portfolio of stocks

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