an introduction to local government climate adaptation ......adaptation capacity: planning....
TRANSCRIPT
An Introduction toLocal Government
Climate Adaptation PlanningDavid S. Liebl
Melinda Habecker
UW-Cooperative Extension2014 JCEP
March 12 – La Crosse
WICCI Climate AnalysisChris Kucharik - UW Agronomy
Dan Vimont, Steve Vavrus, Michael Notaro, David Lorenz - UW Center for Climatic Research
Humans experience climate as weather…
…and weather can take a human toll!
What about climate concerns us?
High WaterStorms of June 1-15, 2008
38 River gauges broke records810 Square miles of land flooded161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage
2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated
$34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM
DNR
Climate Ready Communities
Climate Awareness
Vulnerability Assessment :Extreme heatDroughtHeavy rainfallWarm winters
Adaptation Capacity: PlanningResiliency
Communities should be prepared for today’s rare weather extremes, they will become more common - WICCI
Local Government Climate PlanningThe TeamOperations and infrastructure managers, public health and
safety
The Process Framework:1) Understand climate impacts 2) Assess vulnerability3) Identify adaptation opportunities4) Plan for adaptation:
– Range of strategies– Implementation plan– Public review and input
Your most notable extreme weather event
- You were in it- You responded- You will always remember- You worry about
June 8, 1953Cleveland, OhioF-4 TornadoPath 118 milesWidth 100 yardsInjuries 379Dead 17
Wisconsin’s Historic Temperature Change
Wisconsin has warmed by 1°-1.5°F since 1950
Daytime High Temperature Change
SpringWinter
Winter
Nighttime Low Temperature Change
Spring
Temperature Extremes
Sub-zero nightsmuch less frequent
Very hot dayslittle change
Dates of Spring and Fall Freeze
Wisconsin growing season lengthened by 1-4 weeks since 1950
Annual Average Precipitation Change
Wisconsin rainfall has changed ↑7” - ↓4” since 1950
- Statistical downscaling of climate projections across the East and central Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
- Objective to statistically downscale global climate model simulations to scales relevant for decision makers (around 10 km resolution)
WICCI Climate Assessments and ProjectionsUW-Center for Climatic Research
DownscalingRegion
• Primarily warmer winter and nighttime temperatures
• More frequent hot summer days and heat waves
• Moderate increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation
• Significant increase in rain during winter and spring
Summary of Wisconsin’s Projected Climate
Short term variability (weather) and extreme eventscannot be projected
Projected Change in Mean Annual Temperature+6⁰F 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
Projected Change in Peak Temperatures1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
10-25 days >90⁰F 0-5 days >100⁰F
Projected Change in Max Temperature by Season 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
Winter +6-7⁰F Spring +5-6⁰F
Fall +6⁰FSummer +4-5⁰F
Vulnerability to Heat
Since 1982, heat waves have caused more deaths (216) than all other natural disasters combined - NWS
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation+5-15% 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
Projected Change in Precipitation by Season 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
Winter +20-25%
Summer +0-5%
Spring +10-20%
Fall +5-10%
Reduced yields
Uncertain profits
More precip in Winter and Spring = Drought
An incentive to irrigate?
Summer +0-5%
More frequent intense rainfall• Urban flash flooding from heavier rainfall• Sanitary sewer overflows• Increased runoff/nutrients
Climate Risks:
Liebl and Schuster11.75”
Milwaukee 7/22/10$37M damage
Designing and Facilitating the Process
High level project team1. Full-group awareness raising2. Sub-group vulnerability analysis3. Full-group vulnerability review and adaptation
brainstorming4. Subgroup adaptation planning5. Full-group and community outcome reporting6. Public Outreach and review7. Development of a Climate Change and Emergency
Preparedness Plan
Keep focus on risk from extreme conditions and not long-term trends
Identifying climate vulnerabilities and adaptations
Climate Parameters Considered:Temperature:
Annual Average Temp + 6 degree FAverage Max Temp + 6 degree FAnnual Peak Temp 110-112 degree F20 more days over 90More frequent and longer heat waves500 more cooling degree days
Precipitation:Annual precipitation +2” Rainfall frequency and intensity increasingExtreme rain event (6” in 24 hrs)Increased rainfall in winter and springIncreased groundwater recharge
Climate Vulnerability Worksheet
Changing Climate Conditions+A1:O17 Area of Responsibility or Activity Anticipated Impact Scope of Impact Time Frame of Change Consequence of Impact Vulnerability of Systems
Use the following (WICCI A1B) scenarios for mid-21st century
Name of department or other What exactly do you think will happen
How widely will it affect your operations
Immediate or deferred Why is the impact a problem
How will you recognize failure of the system
Temperature
Annual Average Temperature + 6⁰F
Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F
Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F
Twenty more Days over 90⁰F Public Health More / longer heat waves
Need plan for vulnerable people
Deferred Vulnerable people can sucumb to prolonged heat
Increased heat related deaths and hospital admissions
Five hundred more cooling degree days
More frequent-longer heat waves
Precipitation
Annual Precipitation +2"
Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing
Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs)
Increased rainfall in winter and spring
Increased groundwater recharge
Adaptations Worksheet(pg2)
Estimated Risk to System Adaptation Opportunity Adaptation Goals Feasibility of Options Required Authority Potential Internal Partners Potential External Partners Time Frame of Implementation
High - Medium - Low Anything that can be done in anticipation of the impact
Objectives / Milestones Cost, physically possible, socially acceptable
Who can make the decision to implement
Who in County government should be involved
Who else should be involved When should it begin (or when can it begin)
High Identify vulnerable people and cooling shelters
Plan in place by 2014 Will require dedicating staff to plan dvelopment
Public Health Emergency Management, Police, Fire
Community organizations, Hospitals
Immediately
Vulnerability Assessment - Heat
Vulnerabilities:• Heat stress to employees• Demand for drinking water• Elderly and other heat-sensitive individuals• Roadway buckling• Increased utility costs
Scenario:• Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F• Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F• Twenty more Days over 90⁰F• Five hundred more cooling degree days• More frequent-longer heat waves
Vulnerability Assessment - Rainfall
Vulnerabilites: • Floodplains and surface flooding• At-risk road-crossings• Wells and septic systems• Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration
Scenarios:• Annual Precipitation +2"• Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing• Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs)• Increased groundwater recharge
The Climate Readiness Process Continued
Next steps:1) Full group climate vulnerabilities review2) Sub group: Assess the feasibility of adaptation strategies3) Full group adaptation review and look for commonalities4) Prioritize the higher and medium 5) Draft a plan for public review and input6) Implement adaptation strategies
Dane County Outcomes• $40,000 - Radios vehicles to allow better communication during extreme weather
events.
• A new fund in the highway department budget dedicated to the replacement of outdated culverts under roads.
• $10,000 - Emergency sandbag fund to stockpile sandbags future high water events.
• $636,000 - Four-wheel drive, all-weather sheriff’s vehicles to improve emergency response during extreme weather.
• $100,000 - Track driven tree remover to clear downfalls from high winds.
• $60,000 - Blizzard Buster plows to maintain access during severe snowstorms.
• $380,000 for a special climate educational exhibit for the Dane County Zoo.
Current Work
• Approached a smaller city in Dane County who attended the county’s informational meeting on climate change planning
• Waiting to see if they are interested in moving forward with incorporating climate change resiliency into plans they are currently updating
UW-Extension’s engagement on climate change
₋ Climate and weather are fundamental influences on prosperity
₋ Community attitudes about climate change affect decision making
₋ Extension’s evidence-based educational model and reputation are a source of information in the community
UW-Extension Programming
• Current weather extremes are consistent with the risk posed by climate projections.
• Communities that are prepared for today’s weather extremes will be better adapted to future conditions.
• What aspects of your workplan are affected by climate:• Economic Development• Natural Resource Planning• Local Government Services• Emergency Preparedness
Don’t talk climate change…talk changing risk
Risk Management Opportunities(i.e. Climate Adaptation)
Increase preparedness and mitigation activities with more time spent with local governments and first responders addressing hazard definition and potential mitigation solutions – Intergovernmental Coordination
Restrict new construction on hydric soil and other areas prone to flooding” – Land Use Planning
Establish policies for heat wave actions and site cooling centers; Perform floods studies using extreme rainfall scenarios – All Hazards Planning
Questions??
Mindy Habecker, Dane County UW-Extension, Madison, WI (608) 224-3718, [email protected]
David S. Liebl, UW- Cooperative Extension, and Department of Engineering Professional Development, Madison, WI (608) 265-2360, [email protected]