livelihoods adaptation to climate change: adaptive learning experiences of managing climatic...
TRANSCRIPT
Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change: Adaptive Learning Experiences of Managing Climatic
Extremes in Agriculture Sector
Atiq Kainan AhmedSenior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: [email protected]
Bangladesh Case
• Increasing frequency, intensity and variability of droughts, floods, tropical storms
• Sea level rise and salt water intrusion• Agriculture will be the most affected sector
Projected trends
Drought Prone Areas
One can, actually, visualize the situation …….
High evaporation rate and temperature
Dried up canals and water bodies
Affected stages of agricultural crops
High agricultural drought and dryness
Consequences/impacts
Agriculture/crops failure >> fallow land
Livestock loss
Deterioration of water quality/fisheries
Environmental degradation
Loss of livelihoods
Future Climate Risk:
Drought Spells
Maturity85-100
harvesting100-105
Ripening70-85
Flowering65-70
Panicle Initiation50-65
Active Tillering25-50
Establishment10-25
Transplanting0-10
4321
Drought intensityStageRice cropping Cycle(days)
Maturity85-100
harvesting100-105
Ripening70-85
Flowering65-70
Panicle Initiation50-65
Active Tillering25-50
Establishment10-25
Transplanting0-10
4321
Drought intensityStageRice cropping Cycle(days)
Livelihoods Adaptation Process
LACC objectives
• Develop a methodology to transform climate change impact modelling into livelihood adaptation practices
• Strengthen institutional structures to handle climate change adaptation
• Initiate and facilitate the field testing with farmers of livelihood adaptation strategies
Key strategy
Assessing current vulnerability
Assessing future climate risks
Designing adaptation strategy
Sta
keh
old
er e
ng
agem
ent
and
fee
db
ack
Testing adaptation options
Assessing current vulnerability
Local perceptions –1 On climate variability
Current climate is behaving differently from the past years. The past climate condition was better (says the elderly people) .
Seasonal cycle (locally called rhituchakra) has changed from the past. Where it used to be 6 distinct seasons in the past but now its almost 3 or 4 seasons observed distinctly in a year.
Climatic conditions have changed due to the God’s will (khodar ichay) and the cure – the rainfall is in the God’s hand (akasher pani allar haatey).
The average temperature in the area has changed. People feel that summer time heat increased and the winter has become shorter and in some winter days cold became severe.
People’s perceptions on drought are equated to:
a) dryness (locally known as shukna), b) consecutive non-rainy days (locally known as ana-bristi),
Drought is more frequent now than before.
Prevalence of pest and disease incidence increased and largely associated with HYV rice.
With adoption of HYV rice the production increased but due to climatic variability adverse impact of drought causes yield reduction.
Vegetable and fruits (Mango varieties) remain affected due to variations in rain, temperature and drought situations.
Local perceptions –2 On drought situation
Risks and vulnerabilities Both types of factors: climatic & non-climatic factors emerged.
Non-climaticClimatic
Profiling of livelihood groups
Petty traders/ businessmen
FishersWage
labourersSmall & marginal
farmers
Most vulnerable
groups
Large farmers
Large businessmen
‘Non’ or ‘least’ vulnerable
groups
Assets Locally defined indicators (i.e. access to these asset components)
Natural Cultivable land Water for livelihood activities (i.e. irrigation, fishing) Irrigation water retaining capacities (i.e. common ponds, kharies) Potable water Firewood etc.
Human Health centers/hospitals Literacy/education Educational institutions Status of personal/family health etc.
Financial Cash money Savings Readily sellable valuable assets (e.g. jewelries) Credit facilities Sellable livestock-poultry etc.
Social Access to Union Parishad (local government) decision making, Formal institutions that provide services (i.e. BMDA groups) Benefits from kinship/goshti, Local groups and political decisions etc.
Physical Occupational equipments (e.g. STW pumps) Livestock (buffalos, cows etc.) Orchards/homestead gardens Condition of the dwelling houses Water storage facilities (e.g. overhead tanks) etc.
Assets portfolio evaluated (local indicators used)
Innovative asset evaluation scoring system
developed
Small & marginal
farmers (32.43%)
Small and marginal farmers(Non-irrigated areas)
-1
1
3
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Small and marginal farmers(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
• Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, dryness, high temperature, and erraticity of the above
• Crop yield reduction • Electricity failure (for irrigation supply)• Unavailability of surface water storage facilities (e.g.
khari, ponds)• Unavailability of natural water bodies (e.g. canals,
rivers)• Pest infestation• Undulation of land• Unavailability of DTW• Insufficient irrigation supply systems (mostly tertiary
canals)• Unavailability of supplementary irrigation facilities• High price of agricultural inputs• Tenancy related complexities• Inability to cultivate 'boro' crop
Wage labourers
(41.10%)
• Climatic factors: high temperature/heat (summer months), cold (during winter months)
• Lack of healthcare facilities• Lack of cash/savings• Lack (ownership) of cultivable land • Food shortage• Unavailability of work during 'boro' season• Insufficient labour opportunities during 'aus‘ and ‘rabi’
season• Low female employment opportunities• Commuting problems• Seasonal migration(usually failed ones)• Livestock/poultry diseases/sufferings/loss• Poor wage rate• Tenancy, share and wage related complexities
Rural wage labours(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Rural wage labours(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Petty traders/businessmen
(6.81%)
Petty trader/businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Petty trader/businessmen(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
• Limited number of buyers in the market• Lack of cash/savings• Limited ownership of sufficient cultivable land• Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)• Lack of non-farm employment opportunities• Low market price• Commuting problems
Fishers (fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours) 0.35%
Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
• Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, high temperature
• Declining natural water bodies (rivers and canals)• Declining number of pond/kharies
• Declining natural fish species• Limited opportunities for fishing (fish markets, storage facilities
etc.)• Difficulties in getting lease for fishing of khas (public) water
bodies• Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)
‘Least’ vulnerable groups(Large farmers and Large businessmen)
6.88% +
• Access to better lands
• Access to lands near better sources of water retaining facilities
• Having buffer from the T-Aman season
• Ability to arrange additional enhanced irrigation facilities
• Tenancy arrangements (i.e. ability to lease out lands)
• Better economic conditions allow them to go for alternative crops, timely agricultural actions and inputs including labour etc.
Large businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Large businessmen(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
• Severe and consecutive droughts• Local political influences/situation• Prolong electricity failure• Fall of external markets (e.g. failure in selling
products in other districts)• Transportation problems• High price of agricultural machineries and inputs in
external markets• Timely availability of agricultural inputs in the local
market
Comparative asset composition
Small and marginal farmers(Non-irrigated areas)
-1
1
3
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Rural wage labours(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Petty trader/businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Large businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Small and marginal farmers(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Rural wage labours(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Petty trader/businessmen(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Large businessmen(Irrigated areas)
0
1
2
3
4
5Natural
Human
FinancialSocial
Physical
Non-irrigated areas
Irrigated areas
Vulnerability context
Adaptation options
De
velop via
ble
Ada
pta
tion op
tion
s
Collate indigenous, local and research based adaptation options
Synthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location
specific conditions
Scientific validation of adaptation options
Local prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing
Designing adaptation
options
Adaptive responses-1(Traditional measures)Pond/khari
ayel (bundh) raising
Tillage, mulching(shedding)
Only the adjacent lands got benefited from kharies while the farthest lands remain uncultivated due to lack of water.
Adaptive responses-2
(State supported modern practices)
DTW
Tank water supply
Use of paid irrigation
Adaptive responses-3
(Alternative/selective)
Mango
Livestock and birds (that consume less water)
Home gardeningDual purpose (optimal use of water & plant)
Adaptive responses-4
(Domestic practices)
Load sharing
Use of traditional means and sources
Agricultural adaptive practices • Pond (and khari) water irrigation
• DTW/STW water irrigation• Beel, canals and rivers water irrigation• Tillage• Mulching• Use of green manure/pesticide use• Alternate crops (more tolerant ones)• Selection of rice varieties• Alternative livestock/birds• Short duration fish culture (short term)
• Erosion of (use) savings• Credit (NGO-GO sources)• Loan (relatives or informal sources)• Out migration (cyclical)• Multiple livelihood activities• Change of occupations• Mortgage properties
Socio-economic adaptations
Agricultural adaptations
1. Agronomic management
2. Water harvesting and exploitation
3. Water Use efficiency
Typology of agricultural adaptations
4. Crop intensification and diversification
5. Alternate enterprises
6. Post harvest practices
Complementary adaptation measures
•Physical adaptive measures
•Livelihood enhancement
• Income diversification
•Strengthening institutional structures
• Policy formulation
•Financial mechanisms for risk transfer
•Awareness creation & advocacy
Field demonstration of
prioritized adaptation
options
Institutions (GoB)
Institutions (NGOs and CBOs)
Strengthening Institutional set-up
DMB
District DMC
Upazilla DMC
Union DMCLMO
DAE - DRM Core Group
District Deputy Director
Upazilla Ag. Officer
Sub-Assistant Ag. Officer
Community/Farmer Groups/Associations/Local Facilitation Team
NTIWGDMB, DAE, BMD,
DRR, LI, DoE
UTIWGNational expert advisory group
Community mobilizations
• Community awareness raising
• Farmers groups mobilization
• Planning, action and monitoring demonstrations on farmers fields
• Capacity building and training sessions
• Community Risk reduction planning
Gradual systematic up-scalling of livelihoods
adaptations
Assessing current vulnerability
Assessing future climate risks
Designing adaptation strategy
Sta
keh
old
er e
ng
agem
ent
and
fee
db
ack
Testing adaptation options
Incorporation of End-to-end climate information generation and application
systemProviding climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication of response options/ feedback
Community level forecast information sharing
End-to-end early warning
facilitation to the community
End-to-end early warning
facilitation to the community
Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the
community
Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the
community
Interpretation and action
ForecastingAgency notification
Community notification
Response operations
Adaptive Learning and Capacity Buildingto interpret probabilistic forecast, prepare impact outlooks,
communicate impact outlooks with response options to enhance preparedness
Capacity Building
i) Climate risk and impact analysis• climate risk analysis methods• climate change impacts• viable adaptation options
ii) Climate forecast applications for drought mitigation
• introduction to forecast products• Application of weather and climate forecast
products
Some key lessons• Development, DRR and CCA are integrated issues at the local
level
• Moving towards adaptation requires a livelihoods perspective
• An “adaptive learning environment” is essential for building adaptive capacity at community level as well as institutional level.
• CFA/EWS are a good entry points for managing climatic extremes
• Value indigenous/local knowledge ; we need to build on those, and integrate it with external “know hows”
Coping range
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Hazards are increasingAdaptive capacity is not increasing
Coping range
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Need for up-scaling adaptive capacity
Adaptation
Climate shock
Time
Coping range
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Climate shock
“Gradual increase “in adaptive capacity is needed
This is all about increasing the adaptive capacity of the people in all spheres
A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development”
question
A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development”
question
Setting and selecting these livelihood options are about stretching the limits of the local adaptive responses as well as the innovation, experiences, technologies appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment of the respective areas.
Multiple pathways to improve adaptive responses that would comprise of both short-term and long-term adaptive measures. Such multiple pathways could comprise of:
But, this is also about bringing newer ideas/ experiences/technologies and innovations appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment
Recommendations
Physical–structural
adaptations
Agricultural adjustment practices
Research and innovation for
adequate crops
Risk reduction measures
Enabling institutional
environment
Social and culturaladjustments
Shift and switch to alternative crop
Improvements in irrigation systems
Climate Forecast Information
Awareness And
Advocacy
The challenge would be to find out the right balance and combination
among these varied adaptation options specific to respective
“geo-physical settings” and “livelihoods systems”.
Coastal Areas
