an introduction to carbon modelling developing forestry and bioenergy projects within cdm quito,...

An Introduction to Carbon Modelling

Developing Forestry and Bioenergy Projects within CDM

Quito, EcuadorMarch, 2004

Joanneum Research Woodrising Consulting Inc.

2

Overview

• Definitions• Reasons for Modelling• System Boundaries• Introduction to Carbon Flows• Generalized Biomass Equations• Non-Biomass LULUCF Emissions• Energy Emissions• Input Parameters• Sensitivity Analysis• Inverse Modelling


3

Definitions• Volume (m3)

– Merchantable or total

• Biomass (t)

• Carbon (tC)– 50% of dry biomass

• Carbon Dioxide Equivalence (tCO2e)– Carbon x 44/12


4

Definitions• Pool, Stock

• Stock Change biomass (tC)

• Emissions by Sources

• Removals by Sinks

• Fluxes


5

Reasons for Modelling

• Forecast of Sequestration• Estimation of Baseline• Effects of Management• Sensitivity Analysis• Selection of Pools to Monitor• Estimation between Measurements• Calibration to Carbon Measurements

– Fine tuning of parameters


6

System Boundaries

• Spatial Boundary– The “project boundary” geographically delineates

the afforestation or reforestation project activity under the control of the project participants. The project activity may contain more than one discrete area of land.

– Models, full life-cycle

• Temporal Boundary– CDM (30 years, or 3 times 20 years)– Models, full life-cycle


7

The Carbon Cycle

Roots

Trees

Other Plants

Soil

Landfills

Atmosphere

Landfills

Products

RootLitter

Fine LitterCoarse Litter


8

Above Ground Tree Biomass

• Volume, V(t)– Growth and yield tables– Merchantable volume

• Expansion, (t)1.2 < < 4.2– Measurements– Tree components (CO2FIX)

• Density, (t) V(t))()(=B(t) tεtρ

Trees


9

Yield Curve Example

From Hofstede and Aguirre, 1999

Pinus radiata

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Years

Bio

ma

ss

(t/h

a)

AverageModelled

Density = 0.400 t/m3BEF = 185%


10

Root Biomass

• Total Root Biomass, R (t)0.2 < < 0.5

• Fine Root Biomass, r(t)

(R)Φ=r(t)

B(t)=R(t) θ

Roots


11

Litter Biomass

• Litter, L– By pool, p

• Litter Input, LI– Portion of biomass,

• Litter Decomposition, LD– Proportional to litter biomass– Dependant on quality, precipitation, temperature

( )PT,Quality,F=

L=LD

B=LI

LD-LI+L=L

p

p1-t

ppt

1-tpp

t

pt

pt

p1-t

pt

δ

δ

η

Fine LitterCoarse Litter


12

Litter Decomposition RateLitter Decomposition

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Temperature (deg C)

An

nu

al

De

com

po

sit

ion

P = 400 cmP = 800 cmP = 1000 cm

Adapted from Moore et al., 1999


13

Root Litter Biomass

• Root Litter, RL– By pool, p

• Root Litter Input, RI– Portion of root biomass,

• Root Decomposition, RD– Proportional to root biomass– Exponential decay

( )PT,Quality,F=

RL=RD

R=RI

RD-RI+RL=RL

p

p1-t

ppt

1-tpp

t

pt

pt

p1-t

pt

δ

δ

η

RootLitter


14

Soil Biomass

• Soil, S• Soil Input, SI

– Portion of decomposing litterand root litter

• Soil Decomposition, SD– Exponential decay ( )nCompositioP,T,F=

D=SD

RDΣ+LDΣ=SI

SD-SI+S=S

p

1-tp

t

1-tp

p1-t

p

pt

tt1-tt

δ

δ

βα

Soil


15

Wood Products Biomass• Wood products, W

– By product type, p• Wood Product Input, WI• Wood Product Decomposition, WD

– Proportional to wood product biomass• Leakage • Not formally part of CDM

p1-t

ppt

pt

pt

pt

pt

pt

p1-t

pt

W=WD

Recycled+Harvest=WI

WD-WI+W=W

δ

Products


16

Landfill Biomass• Landfilled waste, G

– By landfill type, p

• Landfill Input, GI– From discarded wood products

• Landfill Decomposition, GD– Exponential decay

p1-t

ppt

pt

pt

pt

pt

pt

pt

p1-t

pt

G=GD

Burnt-Recycled-WD=GI

GD-GI+G=G

δ

Landfills


17

Non-Biomass EmissionsLULUCF Projects

• Fossil Fuel Consumption on Site– Per hectare for management– Per tonne of wood product at harvest

• Other Non-CO2 Emissions– Changing Water Balance– Use of Fertilizers


18

Energy EmissionsBioenergy Projects

• Fossil Fuel Consumption– Per tonne of wood product– Per tonne of waste landfilled– Per tonne of recycled wood product

• Electricity Consumption– Per tonne of wood product– Emission intensity

• Fossil Fuel Displaced by Bioenergy– Appear in baseline


19

Input Parameters

• Numerous (> 60)• Measured Directly

– Tree volume, annual litter input, litter decomposition

• Estimated– Harvest proportions, energy parameters

• Modelled from Measurements– Litter and soil biomass


20

Sensitivity Analysis

ParametersModels


21

P

roba

bilit

y

tC sequestered after 50 years

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Sensitivity Analysis


22

Inverse Problem

ParametersMeasurements

Non-uniqueErrors

an introduction to carbon modelling developing forestry and bioenergy projects within cdm quito,...

Documents