an introduction and overview professor jerald schutte
TRANSCRIPT
Sociology 364/L & 497/L Statistical Methods and Social Research
An Introduction and overview
Professor Jerald Schutte
Session I – Logistics - 12:15-1:30 pm
1. Class Format and FAQs2. General and Specific SLOs
Session II – Support - 1:45–3:00 pm
3. Technology Support4. Social/Interpersonal Support
Session III – Information – 3:45–5:00 pm
5. Fact Finding6. Critical Thinking
Topics for the Day
1. Enrollment
2. Class History
3. Meeting times
4. Books & References
5. Tests & Grading
6. Communication
7. Office Hours
8. Expectations
Session I – Course Logistics
1. Basic Conceptual Thinking: To Read efficiently,
Write coherently and do simple Arithmetic correctly.
2. Intermediate Conceptual Thinking: To Organize Information Effectively, Study Material Effortlessly, and Develop Long Term Memory Easily.
3. Advanced Conceptual Thinking: To Identify, Define, Evaluate, Analyze and Summarize Information from the World Around You. In short, to exercise Critical Thinking.
General Learning Outcomes
9 4 7 6 3 8 5
An Experiment in Organizing
9 4 7 - 6 3 8 5
Now Let’s Try Again, but this time……
1. Conceptualize: Identify, create and measure social concepts and generate hypotheses to test the resulting variables.
2. Control: Recognize and learn how to perform experimental and non-experimental procedures in conducting social research.
3. Collect: Identify where and how to collect data, write and conduct surveys, structure observational research, execute simulations and perform secondary analyses.
4. Calculate: Learn to summarize, analyze, reason and publish from descriptive and inferential statistical procedures via SPSS.
5. Communicate: Take command of reading and writing articles
in research format.
Specific Learning Outcomes (5 C’s)
Course Outline
First Break Now
1. Web-Based Repositories a. HTML Website / Moodle LMS
b. Virtual Computer Lab (SPSS)
c. Electronic databases (Jstor, etc)
d. Lecture Podcasts (mp3)
2. Web-Based Communication a. Virtual Private Network
b. Twitter and Group Email
c. Elluminate Virtual Class
d. Forums / Chats / Polling
Session II – Technology Support
The Website Announcements Weekly Lectures Lab Assignments Reading Guide Sample Quizzes Discussions Resources
Moodle LMS Profiles Discussion Groups Podcasts
The Website and LMS
1. Virtual Private Network:
software allowing student to connect to CSUN from off campus such that the server thinks you on the
campus network.
2. Virtual Computer Lab: Cloud Server allowing access
to SPSS from off campus.
VPN and VCL
1. Study Partners
2. Group Office Hours
3. Interpersonal Information
4. Moodle Profile References
5. Email, Web and Forums Posts
6. Virtual Polling / Examinations
Social/Interpersonal Support
Second Break Now
1. The Punch Card
2. Grades and Expectations
3. Your FATE
4. Factual Revelations
5. Our First Questionnaire
Session III – Fact Finding
The Four Elements of Critical Thinking
1. Think outside the box
2. Pay attention to the Smallest Detail
3. Consider all variables in forming conclusions
4. Take prior information into account.
Critical Thinking Exercises
#1 - Think outside the BoxExample - cover all nine circles with four straight lines without lifting your pencil!
#2 - Attend to the Smallest Elements Example: The Bridge Crossing Problem
A = 1 Minute
B = 2 Minute
C = 5 Minute
D =10 Minute
Problem: Cross the bridge two at time with one always coming back until all are across. How do they all cross in 17 minutes
Answer:
A crosses with B = 2 minutes
B comes back = 2 minutes
C crosses with D = 10 minutesA comes back = 1 minuteA crosses with B = 2 minutes
Total crossing time = 17 minutes
Conclusion: The more complex the problem, the greater the role of the smallest elements
Income by Education
1
2
3
4
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
1 2 3 4
Highest Degree Earned
Lif
etim
e S
alar
y
Education Yearly Earnings Life Earnings Difference
1 High School Dropout $19000 $1200000
2 College Grad $50000 $2400000 $1200000
3 Doctorate $75000 $3600000 $1200000
4 Professional Degree $100000 $4400000 $800000
#3 - Consider all Variables Example - Is College Worth The Money?
College Grad vs. HS Dropouts Lifetime Earnings$2,400,000 - 1,200,000= $1,200,000 Net Gain
PV Rate Nper FV (Loss)HS vs College GradDirect Costs 6 Years @ 8000 / Yr 48,000$ 5% 50 ($550,435)Opportunity Costs 6 Years @ 19000 / Yr 114,000$ 5% 50 ($1,307,284)Total Loss ($1,857,719)Total Gain $1,200,000Net Cost of a College Degree ($657,719)
College Grad vs PhDDirect Costs 6 years @ 10000 / Yr 60,000$ 5% 45 ($539,100)Opportunity Costs 6 years @ 50000 / Yr 300,000$ 5% 45 ($2,695,502)Total Loss ($3,234,603)Total Gain $1,200,000Net Cost of a Doctorate ($2,034,603)
College Grad vs. Doctorate Lifetime Earnings
$3,600,000 - 2,400,000= $1,200,000 Net Gain
College Grad vs. Professional Degree Lifetime Earnings$4,400,000 – 2,400,000= $2,000,000 Net Gain
Conclusion
Never take at face value what you read or hear, no matter how “right” it sounds. The degree of “rightness” is simply a measure of how closely it corresponds to our values. Critical thinkers step back from their own values to assess the validity of assertions by examining all of possible variables’ effects.
Direct Costs 5 years @ 12000 / Yr 60,000$ 5% 46 ($566,055)Opportunity Costs 5 years @ 50000 / Yr 250,000$ 5% 46 ($2,358,565)Total Loss ($2,924,620)Total Gain $2,000,000Net Cost of a Professional Degree ($924,620)
#4 - Use Prior Information to Make New Decisions Example: choose the card with the circle
What is the probability of choosing the circle?
Of course, it is 1/3 or .33 (i.e. one of three objects)
Use Prior Information to Make New Decisions
But suppose you found out that the middle card was the Triangle and, therefore, eliminated it. Now what is the probability of choosing the Circle?You would be tempted to say ½ or .5 since there are two cards left and one is the circle. But the correct answer is 2/3 or .66. Understanding why this is true is the key to recognizing the role of prior knowledge in decision making.
Use Prior Information to Make New DecisionsThink of the decision as having two trials. The probably of getting it wrong on the first trial is 2/3 or .66 (i.e. 1 - the probability of getting it right). The probability of getting it wrong on the second trial is ½ or .5 (again 1 – the probability of getting it right). Therefore, the probability of getting it right by the second trial is 1 – the probability of getting it wrong on both trials. Getting it wrong on the first trial is 2/3. Getting it wrong on the second trial is 1/2. Their product is the probability of getting it wrong on both trials (i.e. 2/3 x ½ = 1/3). Therefore the probability of getting in right by the second trial is 1 – 1/3, which is 2/3, not ½. Think about it.
Moral to the story: Success is greater if you continue your efforts, taking into account your failure, than disregarding your failures and trying anew.
Go to Quiz
Taking Stock of the DayA Short Quiz
Polling Website
Not Connected
Please go to rwpoll.com and type in the number given to you in the box below.
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Session I – Logistics - 12:15-1:30 pm
1. Class Format and FAQs2. General and Specific SLOs
Session II – Support - 1:45–3:00 pm
3. Technology Support4. Social/Interpersonal Support
Session III – Information – 3:45–5:00 pm
5. Fact Finding6. Critical Thinking
Topics for the Day