an analysis of the contribution c40 cities can of limiting ... · an analysis of the contribution...

An analysis of the contribution C40 cities can make to delivering the Paris Agreement objective of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.

How cities will get the job done

DONORS

This report has been delivered through a collaborative partnership between C40 and Arup, the global consultancy firm. Arup has worked with C40 since 2009 to develop strategic analysis and research that is central to progressing our understanding of how cities contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This is why in June 2015, Arup announced a major partnership with C40, committing $1 million of professional support over three years to help cities take meaningful action against climate change.

This partnership is founded on Arup’s independent and evidence-based approach, alongside C40’s longstanding belief in “measurement for management”. The partnership supports a strong analytical research agenda while helping city actors to identify opportunities, collaborate and develop practical solutions to accelerate and expand action on climate change.

C40 offers special thanks to CIFF as the part funder for this critical piece of research.

CORE FUNDERS

The Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) is an independent, philanthropic organisation. Our staff and Trustees combine the best of business and the best of development, bringing a wealth of experience from both sectors to CIFF’s work. We aim to demonstrably improve the lives of children in developing countries by achieving large-scale, sustainable impact. We believe that every child deserves to survive, thrive and mature into adulthood in a supportive and safe environment. However, climate change disproportionately affects children living in poverty in developing countries. A key focus for CIFF is climate-smart urbanisation.

Bloomberg Philanthropies’ mission is to ensure better, longer lives for the greatest number of people. The organization focuses on five key areas for creating lasting change: Public Health, Environment, Education, Government Innovation and the Arts. Bloomberg Philanthropies encompasses all of Michael R. Bloomberg’s charitable activities, including his foundation and his personal giving. In 2014, Bloomberg Philanthropies distributed 462 million USD.

Realdania is a modern philanthropic association that works to create quality of life and benefit the common good by improving the built environment: cities, buildings and the built heritage. Realdania grew out of a 150 year old mortgage credit association whose credit activities were sold off in 2000. Over the past 13 years Realdania has engaged in a total project value of approximately EUR 3.7 billion. Realdania’s grants accounted for EUR 1.9 billion.

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CONTENTS

FOREWORDS 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

I INTRODUCTION I21.1 C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group 14

1.2 A C40 Action Pathway For Delivering Against The Paris Agreement 14

1.3 This Project: Not A Static Blueprint But The Start Of A Collective Journey 14

2 ONE YEAR ON FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT I62.1 We Have The Commitment, Now Implementation At Scale Is Urgently Needed 18

2.2 The Window For Action Is Fast Disappearing 18

2.3 Cities Will Bear The Brunt Of Inaction 18

3 HOW C40 CITIES CAN DELIVER ON THE AMBITION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT 223.1 Emissions Of C40 Cities Today 24

3.2 How Emissions Will Increase If We Don’t Take Action 25

3.3 C40 Cities’ Remaining Carbon Budget 29

3.4 Sharing The Remaining Budget 29

3.5 The C40 Carbon Trajectory 31

3.6 The Scale Of C40’S Challenge: The Savings Needed To Deliver This Trajectory 33

4 DEADLINE 2020: A PATHWAY TO A CLIMATE SAFE WORLD 364.1 C40 Cities Have Made Tremendous Progress So Far 39

4.2 Determining Future Action Pathways 40

4.3 Global View Of The C40 Climate Action Pathway 42

4.4 City Governments Will Have A Pivotal Role As Actor And Convenor 44

4.5 Bending The Curve: 2016-2020 46

4.6 Accelerating And Universalising Reductions: 2020-2030 49

4.7 Embedding A Climate Safe Future: Beyond 2030 50

5 THE PATHWAY SECTOR BY SECTOR 525.1 The Urban Planning Pathway 54

5.2 The Transit Pathway 55

5.3 The Energy Pathway 60

5.4 The Buildings Pathway 66

5.5 The Waste Pathway 70

6 ACCESSING C40 CITIES’ CONTRIBUTION TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT 766.1 How C40 Will Unlock Action In Cities 78

6.2 Urban Partners: Action In Cities, But Not By Cities Alone 79

6.3 Funding The C40 City Contribution To Delivering On The Paris Agreement 81

7 PLUGGING THE GAP: WHERE CITIES MUST RELY ON OTHERS 827.1 Electrifying Our Cities 84

7.2 Decarbonisation Of Our Energy Supply 86

7.3 Achieving Negative Emissions 88

7.4 Putting It All Together: Cumulative Savings Mean C40 Cities Can Meet COP21 Paris Ambition 89

8 DEADLINE 2020 AS BLUEPRINT FOR WORLDWIDE DELIVERY OF PARIS AGREEMENT 90

9 CONCLUSIONS 94

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY 98A.1 Introduction 100

A.2 Baselining C40 Cities 100

A.3 C40 Cities’ Carbon Budget 101

A.4 C40 Cities Emissions Trajectories 103

A.5 2CAP 106

A.6 Key Common Data Inputs 109

A.7 References 110

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FOREWORDS

C40

The Paris Agreement was rightly heralded as a major diplomatic breakthrough, as for the first time every nation on Earth recognized the need to tackle climate change and agreed upon a target to limit global warming. Cities from all around the world, gathered for the first time at the City Hall Summit, played a decisive role in this collective endeavor. We salute the leaders of national governments for reaching this agreement and ratifying it so quickly.

Now the challenge is to turn aspiration into action.

C40 mayors, representing 25 per cent of global GDP and more than 650 million citizens, are committed to urgent and impactful action on climate change. Mayors understand that cities are where the impacts of climate change will hit hardest, but also that climate action can drive economic growth and prosperity.

But, what does delivering on the Paris Agreement look like on the ground in cities? C40 is proud to publish Deadline 2020: How cities will get the job done, to answer this very question.

The results are eye-opening. C40 cities must undertake an unprecedented increase in the pace and scale of climate action, doing 125% more than they have in the last decade by 2020. To help cities achieve this ambitious goal, over the next four years, C40 will redouble its efforts to leverage our networks and overcome barriers, such lack of finance.

A decade of action by C40 members, now representing 90 of the world’s leading megacities, demonstrates that mayors have the experience and capacity to tackle climate change. We have collaborated for years across geographical and cultural boundaries to work towards this common purpose of a climate safe future for all urban citizens.

The Paris Agreement and the action it aims to unlock, remain fragile however, and as 2016 draws to a close the political landscape remains uncertain, particularly at the national level. Now more than ever cities’ leadership, vision and above all decisive action is required.

We hope this research can galvanize discussion and focus minds – in city halls across the world and for all those who work with cities – to accelerate the pace and scale of action.

A climate safe future is possible, but only if we act now.

Arup: Gregory Hodkinson, Arup Chairman

As a signatory to the 2015 Paris Pledge for Action, Arup joined the C40 cities and other non-state actors in a shared commitment to limit global temperature rises to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

It is to the credit of the signatory states and ratifying parties to the Paris Agreement that the agreement has come into force in less than a year. However, once again, it is cities that have demonstrated their agility and the speed by which they can act, committing to the most ambitious element of the Paris Agreement, and setting out the exact means by which they will get there.

I have said before that we have only one generation to save our cities, but actually, as our Deadline 2020 research shows us, the timeline for necessary action is far shorter than this. The decisions we all make now, and the plans we set in motion within the next four years will determine the futures of our children and grandchildren.

Collaboration is without doubt the key to achieving these ambitions, and we stand ready to work with cities, governments, and civil society to turn ambition into action.

This report shows us exactly what this kind of ambition looks like at a city-scale, and sets the tone for the years to come. The pace and scale of climate action must more than triple, such that by mid-century, C40 cities are carbon-neutral, and on the pathway to negative net emissions. This will require a wholesale reconfiguration of how we produce, store and use energy, interact with our urban environments, and use our infrastructure.

I am proud that Arup is working at the forefront of these efforts, providing the C40 and its group of climate-leading cities with access to the necessary technical assistance and guidance to enable them to drive change at a truly global scale.

GREGORY HODKINSON

Arup Chairman

EDUARDO PAES

Mayor of Rio de Janeiro

C40 Chair

ANNE HIDALGO

Mayor of Paris

C40 Chair-elect

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A routemap to turn the aspirations of the Paris Agreement into reality

The Paris Agreement commits signatories to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.” So what does limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees really mean? While nations consider their options, this report, Deadline 2020, presents a detailed pathway of what C40 cities’ need to do to play their part in converting the COP21 Paris Agreement from aspiration into reality.

Research and analysis for this report has identified C40 cities’ share of the remaining global carbon budgets to 2100, for 1.5 and 2 degreeI temperature rise scenarios. Target emissions trajectories have been established for 84II individual member cities that enable these budgets to be met. The work outlines some of the city-specific action pathways necessary to meet the target trajectories, laying out clearly the pace, scale and prioritisation of action needed between now and the end of the century.

The analysis will be provided to C40 members and will be the basis for discussion about future C40 action.

Deadline 2020: four years to get on track

The overriding and deeply significant finding of the work is that the next 4 years will determine whether or not the world’s megacities can deliver their part of the ambition of the Paris Agreement. Without action by cities the Paris Agreement can not realistically be delivered. The business-as-usual path of C40 cities’ emissions needs to ‘bend’ from an increase of 35% by 2020, to peak at only a further 5% higher than current emissions. This “bending of the curve” is required now to ensure that in the coming decades the necessary reductions remain feasible, given that actions can take many years to mature and reach full scale.

Contraction and convergence

To remain within a 1.5 degree temperature rise, average per capita emissions across C40 cities need to drop from over 5 tCO

2e per capita today to around 2.9 tCO

2e per capita by 2030. For wealthier, high-

emitting cities that means an immediate and steep decline. Many fast developing cities can maintain their current levels for up to a decade, and in a small number of cases there is some scope for emissions per person to rise slightly before they eventually fall to zero. But every city needs to diverge considerably from its current business as usual pathway.

Cities are critical to delivering a climate safe future

Over half the emissions savings identified in this routemap can be delivered directly or through collaboration by C40 city governments. If the action pathway outlined in this document is pioneered by C40 cities, and then adopted by cities globally, action within urban areas would deliver around 40% of the savings needed to achieve the ambition of the Paris Agreement. Cities are therefore critical to delivering a climate safe future.

I This report uses “1.5 degrees” and “2 degrees” as shorthand for scenarios that limit global warming to less than 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels respectivelyII The number of C40 member cities at the time of analysis, which is lower than the number of members at the time of publication. See methodological report for full list of included cities www.arup.com/deadline

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WE HAVE FOUR YEARS TO CHANGE THE WORLD

CITIES HAVEA PLAN

$375

BILLION

70%ACTIONS

SCALE

UP

BY 2100, THEY COULD HAVE SAVED UP TO THE EQUIVALENT OF 40% OF THE REDUCTIONS NECESSARY FOR A I.5 DEGREE SCENARIO.

CITIES CAN DELIVER UP TO 40% OF SAVINGS NEEDED FOR I.5 DEGREE WORLD

If action involving city governments can

deliver just over half of the GHG savings

needed, then action to deliver structural changes from outside cities (i.e. electrical grid de-carbonisation), must start to have a significant impact from 2023 at

the latest. This will take over as the

dominant driver of urban GHG reductions

after 2030.

HEADLINE FINDING 7 HEADLINE FINDING 8

Action by C40 cities can have huge magnification:

If all cities with a population greater than 100,000

adopted the ambition for C40 cities set out in

this report, they could save 863 GtCO2e

globally by 2050.

HEADLINE FINDING 9

OT/CAPITA NEGATIVE EMISSIONS

Even with all required actions taken as

per city trajectories, substantial carbonsequestration will also be required bynational governments if cities are to

stay on a 1.5 degree trajectory post 2050.

CAN AND WILL ACT

C40 MAYORS

2020I4,000 MORE CLIMATE ACTIONS

To remain within a 1.5 degree temperature rise,

average per capita emissions across C40 cities would need to drop from over 5 tCO2e per capita today to around 2.9 tCO2e per capita by 2030.

Doing so would keep cities on a trajectory

consistent with either 1.5 or 2 degrees of

warming, it is only after 2030 that these

trajectories diverge.

HEADLINE FINDING 2

As C40 cities age and grow they will need to

invest in renewing and expanding infrastructure, and

working to enhance the quality of life of citizens.

From 2016 to 2050, over $1 trillion investment

is required across all C40 cities to meet the

ambition of the Paris Agreement through new

climate action.

$375 billion of this investment is needed over the

next four years alone.

HEADLINE FINDING 3

HIGHEST EMITTERS MUST DO MOST BY 2020

DEADLINE 2020: ACTION TAKEN IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS WILL DETERMINE IF IT IS POSSIBLE FOR CITIES TO GET ON THE TRAJECTORY REQUIRED TO MEET THE AMBITION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT.If sufficient action is not taken over this period, limiting temperature

increases to below 1.5 degrees will be impossible. C40 cities collectively

delivered nearly 11,000 climate actions between 2005 and 2016. In the

four years to 2020, an additional 14,000 actions are required. This

represents an additional 125% in less than half the time.

HEADLINE FINDING 4

Mayors can deliver or influence just over half of the savings needed to put C40 cities on a 1.5 degree trajectory.

That includes a total of 525 GtCO2e by

2100, either through direct action or via

collaboration with partners such as the

private sector.

HEADLINE FINDING 6

Wealthier, high carbon cities must deliver the largest savings between 2017-2020.

As of 2017, cities with GDP over $15,000

per capita must begin to reduce their per

capita emissions immediately.

Of the 14,000 new actions that are

required from 2016-2020, 71% should be

taken by cities that need to immediately

decrease per capita emissions.

HEADLINE FINDING 5

PARISCOP2I

NATIONS AGREE TO LIMIT GLOBAL WARMING TO I.5 C

86 CITIESDeadline 2020 presents the first significant pathway for relating the ambition of the Paris Agreement to action on the ground.

This would allow C40 cities, representing 650

million people and 25% of the world’s GDP, to

deliver individual emissions trajectories

consistent with limiting global temperature

rise to 1.5 degrees.

HEADLINE FINDING I

5.I TCO2 / PERSON TODAY, 2.9 TCO2 / PERSON BY 2030 O TCO2e/

YEARPER PERSON

C40 BY 2050

DO WEBUT HOW

DELIVER IT?

TO ACT4 YEARSWE HAVE

DEADLINE 2020: HEADLINE FINDINGS

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I GLOBAL BUDGET 1870-2100Emissions today:

C40 Cities: 2.4 GtCO2eGlobal: 47 GtCO

2e

Remaining global emissions budget to 2100:

387 GtCO2e for 1.5 degrees

How much of this remaining budget should be allocated to C40 cities? GtCO2e

387GtCO2e2.4

GtCO2e47

EQUALITYRESPONSIBILITYCAPACITY

CO2e per

capita

Highemitting

city

Lowemitting

city

Common decline rateremaining share

to budget

Future 2030 Today

Convergence value: Half of global average C40 per capita emissions

2 ESTIMATING THE C40 CITY SHARE OF THE BUDGET

Our chosen method for developing a "fair share" budget

for the C40 cities. This takes into account the issues of:

Equality Responsibility Capacity

This budget is calculated by assuming cities' per capita

emissions (and those of the rest of the world) converge

linearly to a common value, then everyone declines to zero

at a common rate depending on the remaining budget.

CONVERGENCE AND CONTRACTION

C40 average

by 2030

HOW DOC40 CITIESCOLLABORATE?

C40 Share=6% of Global Budget by 2100

22GtCO2e

3 C40 BUDGET

This method gives us a budget of

22 GtCO2e, 6% of the global budget

to 2100.

Now, how do C40 cities collaborateto ensure this collective budget is not exceeded?

percapita

(tCO2e)

2050 2100

Flex to achieve 2100 carbon budgets

5 CLIMATE ACTIONS TO DELIVER TRAJECTORY

The 2CAP model is used to investigate the

actions required by cities, and the external

factors (such as electrical grid

decarbonisation)necessary to achieve

each city's target trajectory.

What actions give a Target Trajectory?

C40 – ARUP PARTNERSHIP CLIMATE ACTION PATHWAYS MODEL (2CAP)

We need negative emissions:

57 GtCO2e cumulative

emissions by 2050 mean we

must remove 35 GtCO2e from

the air and store it by 2100.

Example

city carbon

trajectories

Assign to C40 Cities

SteepDecline High

Emissions

LowEmissions

SteadyDecline

EarlyPeak

LatePeak

HIGH G

DPLO

W GD

P

34

25

8

I7

NUMB

ER OF

CITIE

S

4 TARGET TRJECTORY

Each city is assigned one of four per

capita emissions reduction trajectory

typologies based on their current

emissions per capita and GDP per

capita. The characteristics of these

four trajectories are flexed to share

the burden between cities and achieve

rapid emissions reductions across cities.

-35GtCO2eNEGATIVE EMISSIONS REQUIRED BETWEEN 2050 AND 2I00

ACTIONS34,000IN PLACE BY 2030

ACTIONSI4,000INITIATED BY 2020ENERGY BY 2050

ZEROCARBON

See Appendix A for more detail, and associated Technical Report for full detailed methodology

DEADLINE 2020: PROCESS TO PATHWAYS

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION1.1 C40CitiesClimateLeadershipGroup 14

1.2 AC40ActionPathwayForDeliveringAgainstTheParisAgreement 14

1.3 ThisProject:NotAStaticBlueprintButTheStartOfACollectiveJourney 14

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I . I C40CITIESCLIMATELEADERSHIPGROUP

TheC40CitiesClimateLeadershipGroup(C40),nowinits11thyear,connectsmorethan86IIIoftheworld’sgreatestcities,representingover650millionpeopleandonequarteroftheglobaleconomy.Createdandledbycities,C40isfocusedontacklingclimatechangeanddrivingurbanactionthatreducesgreenhousegasemissionsandclimaterisks,whileincreasingthehealth,wellbeingandeconomicopportunitiesofurbancitizens.

I .2 A C40ACTIONPATHWAYFORDELIVERINGAGAINST THEPARISAGREEMENT

ThisreportpresentsaroutemapthatwouldallowC40citiestomeettheaimsandambitionsoftheParisAgreement.Thatagreementcommitssignatoriesto“holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2degreesabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5degreesabovepre-industriallevels.”

Researchandanalysis,carriedoutaspartofC40andArup’s$2millionresearchpartnership,hasidentifiedC40cities’shareoftheremainingglobalcarbonbudgetsto2100,for1.5and2degreeIVtemperaturerisescenarios.Targetemissionstrajectorieshavebeenestablishedfor84Vindividualmembercitiesthatenablethesebudgetstobemet.Theworkoutlinessomeofthecity-specificactionpathwaystomeetthetargettrajectories,layingoutclearlythepace,scaleandprioritisationofactionneededoverthenext5yearsandbeyond.

ThefindingswillinformC40’ssupporttocitiesoverthecomingyearsandhelptofocuscitydecision-makingontheactionthatmattersmost.Furthermore,thisprovidesaprecedentfornationsandotheractorstofollow,tocharttheirownpathwaytowardsworldcompliancewiththeParisAgreement.

I .3 THISPROJECT: NOTASTATICBLUEPRINTBUTTHESTART OFACOLLECTIVEJOURNEY

Deadline 2020isanevolvingblueprint,notastaticorperfectprescription,towhichallpartnersareinvitedtocontribute.Deadline 2020isbasedonthebestcurrentlyavailableevidence,howevermoreandbetterdatawillcontinuetobecomeavailable,allowingrefinementofthegoalsandapproaches.ThisplanisthefirststageinanongoingprocessofmeasurementandprioritisationthatC40willleadoverthecomingdecadetorefineitsactionpathway.Wehavepublishedalltheevidence,methods,assumptionsandanalysis,andwelcomesuggestionsforimprovement.

C40,Arupandourpartnershaveanumberofworkstreamsunderwaythataimtoclosesomeofthesekeyknowledgegapsinthecomingyears.ThisworkisinpartdeliveredasacallforevidencethatseekstogatherfurtherdataandinsightontheelementsthatmakeupDeadline 2020thinking.

Call for Evidence: A work in progress seeking your review and input

V2020Homepage:www.C40.org/research

Alltheassumptions,methodsandoutputsoftheDeadline 2020projectarepublishedindetailonline.Bothasatechnicalpaperandasfulldatasheetscoveringallnon-confidentialinputs.Weinviteallpartnerstoreadandreviewthese,andprovidecommentsandrecommendationsforimprovement,aswellaslinkstootherrelevantworkanddata.Thedatasheetsprovide,foreveryassumption,asectionforcommentsandsuggestions,whichcanbeuploadedattheonlinepage.

Allstakeholders,betheycityadministrations,Non-GovernmentalOrganisations,civilsociety,businessorprivatecitizensareinvitedtovisittheDeadline 2020homepageVI.

III Atthetimeofpublication,withmembernumbersincreasingsteadilyIV Thisreportuses“1.5degrees”and“2degrees”asshorthandforscenariosthatlimitglobalwarmingtolessthan1.5°Cand2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsrespectivelyV ThenumberofC40membercitiesatthetimeofanalysis,whichislowerthanthenumberofmembersatthetimeofpublication.Seemethodologicalreportforfulllistofincludedcitieswww.arup.com/deadlineVI www.C40.org/research

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ONE YEAR ON FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT2.1 WeHaveTheCommitment,NowImplementationAtScaleIsUrgentlyNeeded 18

2.2 TheWindowForActionIsFastDisappearing 18

2.3 CitiesWillBearTheBruntOfInaction 18

CHAPTER 2

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2.1 WE HAVE THE COMMITMENT, NOW IMPLEMENTATION AT SCALE IS URGENTLY NEEDED

TheCOP21ParisAgreementwasahistoric,globalachievementandaturningpointforhumankind.

Inrecognitionofthis,andinaccordancewiththeParisAgreementandtheParisPledge1fornon-stateactors,C40believesfirmlythatcompliancewithalltheelementsoftheParisAgreementshouldbetheprimaryaimofourmembercitiesgoingforward.

Whatdoeslimitingtemperaturerisesto1.5degreesreallymean?Howfastmustwedecarboniseourenergysupplies?Isthispossibleinthefaceofexpectedeconomicgrowth?Whattypesofactionsareneededandhowfast?Howmuchwillitcost?Whomustdriveanddelivertheseactions?Whatdoesthisraisedambitiononmitigationmeanforourplanstoadapt?WeareleftwithmanyunansweredquestionsabouthowtodeliveronthebreathtakingambitionoftheParisAgreement.

TheAgreemententeredintoforceonNovember4,2016,shiftingthefocustothehardworkofimplementingtheambitious,collectiveactionrequiredtorealiseitsaspirations.Whilenationscontinueconsideringwhatthisallmeans,theworld’smegacitiesareplanningtheirresponse.ThisisC40’sproposalwithDeadline 2020.Itisaglobalpathwayofcity-level,inclusiveclimateaction,thatwouldputcitiesonatrajectoryconsistentwiththeambitionsoftheParisAgreementfromnowuntiltheendofthecentury.

2.2 THE WINDOW FOR ACTION IS FAST DISAPPEARING

Itisvitaltorememberthatirreversibleclimatechangeisalreadyunderway,andtheimpactsarealreadybeingfeltaroundtheworld.Globaltemperatureshavealreadyincreasedby1degreeCelsiusfrompre-industriallevels.2AtmosphericCO

2levelsarealreadyabove400partspermillion(ppm),3far

exceedingthe350ppmdeemedtobe“safe”.4ThesefactsemphasisetheincredibleurgencywithwhichweneedtoactiftheambitionsagreedinParisaretobemet.

RecentC40researchshowsthat,basedoncurrenttrendsofconsumptionandinfrastructuredevelopment,withinfiveyearstheworldwillhave“locked-in”sufficientfutureemissionstoexceed2degrees.Athirdoftheseemissionswillbedeterminedbycities,makingthempivotalactorsinanysolution.

2.3 CITIES WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF INACTION

‘The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle. They are playing out before us, in real time.’5

Inadditiontoeffortstoreducecarbonemissions,preparationsmustbemadetodealwiththeimpactsofclimatechange.

TheIPCCfifthassessment(AR5)reportedthaturbanclimatechangerisksareincreasing,andidentifiedthat“muchofthekeyandemergingglobalclimaterisksareconcentratedinurbancentres”.InC40andArup’s2015ClimateActioninMegacitiesreport,98%ofcitiesreportedthatclimatechangeposesacurrentand/orfuturerisktotheircity.Asshownonpage20-C40CitiesRegionalClimateRisks,C40citiesreportthattheyarecurrentlyexperiencingarangeofveryserioushazardsasaresultofclimatechange.Allcitiesreportthatsomeofhazardstheyfacewillbecomemoreseriousandmorefrequentastheclimatechanges.Thepotentialimpactsonpeople,infrastructure,environments,andlocalandnationaleconomieswouldbeevenmoreprofound.

TheambitionoftheParisAgreementandof Deadline 2020istolimitwarmingto1.5degrees,buttheriskoffurtherincreasesintemperatureremainssignificant.Unlesspreventativeactionistaken,climatechange-relatednaturaldisastershavebeenestimatedtoputatrisk1.3billionpeopleby2050andassetsworth$158trillion–doublethetotalannualoutputoftheglobaleconomy.6

Inadditiontoeffortstoreducecarbonemissions,preparationsmustbemadetodealwiththeimpactsofclimatechange.InrecognitionofthistheParisAgreementcommitssignatorynationstoacommoneffortof“enhancingadaptivecapacity,strengtheningresilienceandreducingvulnerabilitytoclimatechange”.Urbancentresarevitalsourcesofadaptationsolutions,essentialtosuccessfulglobalclimatechangeadaptation.C40isbuildingonadecadeofprovenleadershipandsuccesstosupportourmembercitiesintheirtransformativeadaptationefforts.

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COPENHAGENFocus: Costs of climate change

In the summer of 2011, in 2014 and again in 2015, there have been torrential downpours in Copenhagen. If UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections prove accurate, the costs of damage over the next 100 years could reach DKK 16 billion. This is considered a conservative estimate. Before the downpour in the summer of 2014, the cost of damage from extreme rainfall events already totalled DKK 6 – 9 billion over the past 6 years.

CAPE TOWNFocus: Food

The impacts of water scarcity on agricultural productivity will affect food production and supplies. This could increase the price of food and result in food scarcity, particularly for Cape Town’s most vulnerable communities. The potential collapse of the agricultural sector and ecosystem services in the Western Cape could also lead to an increase in in-migration from rural areas to the city. This could test the city’s already stretched service delivery capacity and resources, placing further pressures on employment opportunities and resource pricing.

HE AT WAVE (HIGH)FL ASH/SURFACE FLOOD (HIGH)L ANDSLIDE (HIGH)

KOLKATAFocus: Informal settlement

Kolkata Municipal Corporation, the most important ULB in Kolkata Metropolitan Area, is currently ranked as the third most vulnerable city in the world from coastal flooding. Kolkata Metropolitan Area’s slums are highly vulnerable to floods and cyclones because of poor construction materials, weak social structures and their vulnerable locations. For example, some are located in zones that were previously low-lying wetlands surrounded by vast water bodies into which sewage flows from the city.

TORONTOFocus: Extreme winters

While the overall climate is warming the potential for extreme winter conditions is also increasing in frequency. Extreme winter conditions can increase demand on the energy sector resulting in brownouts and blackouts. Various health effects arise from periods of cold weather exposure, including frostnip, frostbite and hypothermia, with vulnerable populations particularly at risk. Extreme weather also puts stress on public infrastructure including roads and other transportation services.

BANGKOKFocus: Flood and sea level rise

The most significant hazard Bangkok is facing is flooding. Bangkok is located in the Chao Phraya River Basin, which has an average elevation of only 1-2 meters above the mean sea level and includes some areas that are under sea level due to land subsidence.

Bangkok has experienced severe flooding almost once every 3 – 5 years. This is likely to become more severe as the climate changes and sea level rises. Flooding affects the functioning of the city causing power failure, water supply shortage, transportation disruption, choked sanitation function, diseases and stress, and solid waste and wastewater pollution.

CHANGWONFocus: Typhoon

Between 2000 and 2013, Changwon experienced fifteen typhoons. Combined with rainstorms, these caused inundation of buildings, roads and farmlands, as well as blackouts. More than 11,000 buildings were damaged. Anticipating the affect of climate change on extreme events such as typhoons is very challenging, as they are complex climate events and occur sporadically. Changwon has therefore not been able to anticipate the future impact of severe wind in its vulnerability assessments, despite its significance.

RIO DE JANEIROFocus: Landslide

Severe storms, leading to landslides and flooding episodes represent a serious risk to Rio’s population, due to the city’s steep topography and informal settlements. The increased frequency of rainfall especially in summer is likely to lead to more frequent landslides in the future. Rio has a tragic history of life and property landslides losses due to landslide. These also have severe social and public health consequences. To address these risks, the city created the Centro de Operações Rio to anticipate risks and alert the responsible sectors to take the required measures to avoid serious impacts.

C40 CITIES REGIONAL CLIMATE RISKS

NORTH AMERICA82 MILLION BY 2020

LATIN AMERICAII4 MILLION BY 2020

EUROPE84 MILLION BY 2020

EAST ASIAI65 MILLION BY 2020

SOUTH & WEST ASIAI39 MILLION BY 2020

SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA65 MILLION BY 2020

AFRICA74 MILLION BY 2020

VERY HIGH

MODER ATE

E X TREME

HIGH

FL ASH/SURFACE FLOOD (HIGH)HE AT WAVE (HIGH)R AIN STORM (MODER ATE)

FL ASH/SURFACE FLOOD (HIGH)E X TREME HOT DAYS (HIGH)DROUGHT (VERY HIGH)

FL ASH/SURFACE FLOOD (HIGH)HE AT WAVE (MODER ATE)DROUGHT (E X TREME)

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R AIN STORM (MODER ATE)DROUGHT (MODER ATE)E X TREME HOT DAYS (E X TREME)

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HOW C40 CITIES CAN DELIVER ON THE AMBITION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT 3.1 EmissionsOfC40CitiesToday 24

3.2 HowEmissionsWillIncreaseIfWeDon’tTakeAction 25

3.3 C40Cities’RemainingCarbonBudget 29

3.4 SharingTheRemainingBudget 29

3.5 TheC40CarbonTrajectory 31

3.6 TheScaleOfC40’SChallenge:TheSavingsNeededToDeliverThisTrajectory 33

CHAPTER3

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Tomeettheglobalcarbonbudgetthatwouldkeepglobaltemperatureriseto1.5°degrees,wemustachieverapidanddramaticcutsingreenhousegasemissions.Thiswillrequirewholesaletransformationoflong-entrenchedindustrialprocesses,transportationmodes,energygenerationtechniques,landuseplanning,andeconomicmodels,enablingustoshiftawayfromthehigh-emissionsactivitieswehaveadopted.

3.I EMISSIONS OF C40 CITIES TODAY

In2015,the84C40citiescoveredbythisresearchemitted2.4GtCO2eofgreenhousegases.AsFigure1andFigure2illustrate,theseemissionsaredominatedbystationaryandtransportemissionssources.VIIWhilemagnitudesmayvaryfromcitytocityandregiontoregion,averageemissionsbreakdownsareremarkablysimilaratthehighlevel.

Figure 1. C40 cities’ GHG emissions sources.BasedontheGPCinventoriesof30cities,withremainingcitiesmappedonapercapitaemissionsbasis.CategoriesfortheinnerringaretheGPCmainsectors,fortheouterringarethefulllistofGPCsub-sectors.Wheretheseareshownaszero,thismaybeduetoacurrentlackofavailabledataatcity-level.

3.2 HOW EMISSIONS WILL INCREASE IF WE DON’T TAKE ACTION

C40cities,hometooverhalfabillionpeopletoday,aresettoseetheirpopulationboomtonearly800millionby2100.VIIIThesecitiesrepresent650millionpeopleandaquarteroftoday’sglobalGDP.

Figure 3. Projected population growth in current C40 cities.

VII AccordingtoGlobalProtocolforCommunity-ScaleGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventories(GPC)categories. VIII Thecitydatausedinthisanalysisisbasedonthemayor’sjurisdictionalarea.

File: GPC_baseline_insights_2016-10-31.xlsx (Tab: City splits)

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transportation of coal

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Biological treatment of wasteIncineration and open burning

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*Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Industrial Processes and Product Use

GPC EMISSIONS SUB-SECTORS

GPC EMISSIONS SECTORS

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Figure 2. Comparison of two C40 cities’ emissions sources.

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Intheabsenceofmeasurestolimitgrowth,anticipatedeconomicandpopulationboomswilldriveupemissionslevelssignificantlyoverthecomingdecades.Figure5showsthemodelledresultsforaBusinessasUsual(BAU)emissionstrajectoryofC40cities,brokendownbyregion.Asthegraphshows,ifnofurtherclimateactionistaken,andexpectedtrendscontinueforpopulationandGDPgrowth,withsimilarimprovementstoenergyefficiency,wecanexpectannualemissionstoincreasebymorethanseventimesby2100.ImportantlyinthecontextofC40cities,thoseEastAsiaandSouthandWestAsia,withtheirparticularlylargepopulations,areexpectedtocontributethegreatesttoBAUemissionsoutto2100.Thisdemonstratesaneedtofocuseffortsandsupportontheseregions,whilerecognisingthatsomeofthesecitiesmaybetheleastwell-equippedtodeliverthescaleofactionrequired.

Defining the Business as Usual (BAU) trajectory

ThisstudydefinestheBAUscenarioasthecasewhereC40cities’populationandGDPgrowthto2100continueasprojected,withsimilarimprovementstoenergyefficiencyashavebeenobservedhistorically.Atthesametime,thecarbonintensityofconsumedenergyisnotassumedtoimprovebeyondexistinglevels.Assuch,theBAUscenariocanbethoughtofasa“nofurtherclimateaction”scenario;thatis,aworst-caseview.ConsistentwithconceptsusedintheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange’s(IPCC)FifthAssessmentReport(AR5),thismethodisdiscussedfurtherinAppendixAandtheaccompanyingmethodologicalpaperforthisresearch.

Figure 4. Projected economic growth in current C40 cities.

Source:ArupanalysisofEconomistIntelligenceUnitdata8

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Figure 5. Projected business as usual GHG growth in current C40 cities.

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Consumption-based city emissions

Forthepurposesofthisstudy,wherecitycarbonbudgetshavebeendevelopedbasedontotalglobalemissionslevels,itcanbejustifiedthatthesecitycarbonbudgetsarebasedonemissionsinventoriesofScope1and2emissionsonly.Thatis,thedirectemissionsfromcombustionoffuelsforheating,transportationetc.(Scope1);andindirectemissionsfromconsumptionofpurchasedelectricity,heatorsteam(Scope2).

ThisapproachisconsistentwiththewaydataisreportedbyC40citiesaspertheGlobalProtocolforCommunity-ScaleGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventories(GPC).ItalsoplacesfocusonactionsandinitiativesthatcanbemadeatcitylevelScope1and2categories,whichcanbethoughtofas“production-based”IXemissionsthatareunderthescopeofinfluenceofcitygovernmentsandtheirinhabitants.

Anotherusefulandimportantconceptwithregardtoglobalgreenhousegasmitigationis“consumption-based”emissionsaccounting.Thisrecognisesthedirectandlifecycleemissionsassociatedwiththegoodsandservicesconsumedbycityresidents.Theapproachisboundaryfree,meaningthattheemissionsassociatedwithgoodsandservicesareaccountedforandattributedtotheconsumingcity(asopposedtotheproducingentity)whereverintheworldtheyarise.

Perspectiveonconsumption-basedemissionsinventoriesisillustratedbyFigure6.TheycanbesizeableandofascaleequaltoorlargerthantheScope1and2inventories,particularlywherecitiesrelyongoods(suchasfood/drink,clothes,electronicitems,buildingmaterials,vehicles,etc.)producedoutsidetheirboundaries.

Somecities,however,whicharenetexportersofgoodsorservices,orwhichhaveaparticulardevelopmentalprofile,mayhavesmallerconsumption-basedinventoriescomparedwiththeirScope1and2emissions.Ineithercase,consideringconsumption-basedemissionsprovidescitieswithawiderlenstounderstandtheirburdenontheglobalclimate,andenablesthemtoframefurtheractiontominimisetheirimpacts.

Scope3emissionsisoftenusedtodescribeacity’sindirectemissionsassociatedwithactivitiesoutsideitsgovernmentalboundary.Theywillincludeacomponentthatcanbedescribedasconsumptionbased(e.g.bananasdeliveredintothecityforfoodconsumption),butarealsoassociatedwithemissionsthatoccurduetoacity’sactivitiesthatarenotconsumptiondriven(e.g.textilematerialsuppliedtoaclothingfirminacitywhichismanufacturingshirtsforexporttoamarketbeyonditsboundary).Thisdistinctionisimportantbecauseitshowsthatconsumptionandscope3emissionscategoriesaredifferentbutshareacommonelement.

Figure 6. Examples of consumption-based inventories for cities.9

C40,Arup,TheUniversityofLeeds,andTheUniversityofNewSouthWalesarecurrentlydevelopingcomprehensiveconsumption-basedemissionsinventoriesof80C40cities,withtheresultsofthisstudyduebeforetheendof2017.

IX Notingthatindirectemissionsfromelectricityareoftennotactuallyproducedin/bycitiesthemselves

3.3 C40 CITIES’ REMAINING CARBON BUDGET

Usinga“contractionandconvergence”carbonbudgetingapproach,wehaveestablishedC40cities’sharesofoverallglobalcarbonbudgets.XTheglobalcarbonbudgetsusedrepresenta66%chanceoflimitingglobaltemperaturerisesto1.5degreesand2degrees.XIAsummaryofthismethodologycanbefoundinAppendixA,withfulldetailinthemethodologicalpaperaccompanyingthisreport.

AsshowninFigure7,thecarbonbudgetsforC40citiesare22and67GtCO2efor1.5and2degreescenarios,

respectively.Achievingthesebudgetswillbenomeanfeat;the1.5degreescenarioimpliesthatatcurrentrates(2.4GtCO

2eperyear)theC40emissionsbudgetwouldbeconsumedinlessthantenyears.XII

Figure 7. C40 cities’ share of the global carbon budget for 1.5 (left) and 2 degree (right) temperature rise scenarios. “All Cities” refers to existing cities with populations of 100,000 or more. The carbon budgets provided are for 2016 to 2100.

3.4 SHARING THE REMAINING BUDGET

WithanoverallbudgetestablishedforC40,eachmembercitywasassignedtooneoffourtrajectorygroupsdefinedbyspecificcitycharacteristics,asillustratedinFigure8.

AthresholdGDPpercapitavalueof$15,000XIIIwasusedtocategorisethecitiesintoeither“Peaking”or“Declining”percapitaemissionsgroups.

Cities’currentemissionspercapitawerethenusedtofurthersubdividecitiesintooneoffourcategories:

• “SteepDecline”–CitieswithaGDPpercapitaover$15,000andemissionsabovetheaverageforC40(emissionsneedtobeimmediatelyandrapidlyreducedandthecityissufficientlydevelopedtodoso).

• “SteadyDecline”–CitieswithaGDPpercapitaover$15,000butemissionslowerthantheaverageforC40,(thecityissufficientlydevelopedtoimmediatelyreduceemissions,butalessrapidrateofreductionisrequiredthanfortheSteepDeclinegroup).

X NotethecarbonbudgetisinclusiveofallgreenhousegasemissionsreportedwithintheIPCCAR5report.Throughoutthisreporttheterm“carbonbudget”isusedtorefertoaGHGbudgetinunitsofcarbondioxideequivalent.XI WenotethatthissameconfidencethresholdcannotapplytoC40’sownbudgetsXII www.arup.com/deadlineXIII ThisalignswithUnitedNations(UN)developmentclassificationforcountriesmovingfromlowincometomiddleincome.TheUNofficiallyusesGrossNationalProduct(GNP)asameasuretoclassifydevelopmentstatusbutthisdataisnotcurrentlyavailableconsistentlyatacityscale.

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Global Carbon Budget (GtCO2e)

All Cities Carbon Budget (GtCO2e)

C40 Citie Carbon Budget (GtCO2e)s

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• “EarlyPeak”–CitieswithGDPpercapitabelow$15,000andhigherthanaverageemissionspercapita,(anearlyemissionspeakisrequired,althoughthecity’sdevelopmentstatusmeansthatdeclinecannotbeimmediate).

• “LatePeak”–CitieswithaGDPpercapitabelow$15,000andlowerthanaverageemissionspercapita(aslightlylateremissionspeakispossible).

Combinedwitheachcity’sprojectedpopulationgrowthoutto2100,thesetrajectoriescreateanoverallC40carbontrajectorythatmembercitiesneedtofollowtosecuretheircontributiontolimitingglobaltemperaturerisesto1.5degrees.

Table 1. Assigned emissions per capita reduction typologies for select C40 cities. Based on self-reported data via GPC. Cities marked with * reported via CDP.

AscanbeseenfromFigure8,onaverageEarlyandLatePeakcitiesdonotincreasetheiremissionslevelspercapitafrom2016onwards.Howeveroncepopulationgrowthisfactoredin,onaveragethesecitiescontinuegrowingtheiroverallemissionsuntilbetween2030and2035.Whilewealthierhighcarbonemittingcitiesaccountformuchhigheremissionlevelstodayandtowards2020,by2035thesecitiesmustbeproducingnegligibleemissions.

AsindicatedinFigure8,thevastmajorityofC40citiesmustensurethatfrom2016,percapitaemissionseitherdroporatleastdonotincreaseanyfurther.Whilethisistrueonaverage,therewillbesomeexceptions.WithintheLatePeakgrouptherewillbeasmallnumberofcitieswithverylowpercapitaemissionstoday,andthesewouldbeexpectedtoincreasetheirpercapitaemissionsbrieflysincetheyarestartingatsuchalowlevel.

3.5 THE C40 CARBON TRAJECTORY FOR I .5 IS CONSISTENT WITH 2.0 UNTIL 2030

The 1.5 degree trajectory is consistent with the 2.0 degree trajectory until 2030

AscanbeseeninFigure9,the1.5degreewithnegativeemissionsand2degreescenariosarelargelythesameuntil2030,divergingsomewhatthereafter,withthe1.5degreescenariorequiringcontinuedsteepemissionsreductions.

Importantly,the1.5degreetargettrajectoryhitszeroemissionsby2050andmustcontinueto2100withnegativeemissions.Negativeemissionstechnologies(suchasbio-energycarboncaptureandstorage)arelikelytoberequiredtoensurethatthe53GtCO

2eemittedby2050inthe1.5degreescenarioisreduced

inlinewiththe22GtCO2ebudgetby2100.Atotalof31GtCO

2emustberemovedfromtheatmosphere

duringthistimeperiod.Sincecarboncaptureandstorageisnotyetwidelyemployed,thereisanenormousamountofworktobedonetomakethistrajectoryareality.Withoutnegativeemissions,ourcalculationssuggestthatzeronetemissionswouldneedtobereachedinC40citiesasearlyas2030.Theconceptofnegativeemissionsisdiscussedinlatersectionsandinthemethodologicalpaper.

GHG/Capita GDP/capita Assigned typology Example cities

High

High SteepDeclineTorontoMelbourneNewYorkCity

Low EarlyPeakCapeTownDurban*

Low

High SteadyDeclineStockholmSeoul*London

Low LatePeakQuitoCaracas*Amman

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Figure 9. Total C40 trajectories to 2100 to remain within 1.5 and 2 degree emissions budgets.

Figure 8. Projected average emissions per capita (left) and total annual emissions (right) for the four typologies under the 1.5 degree scenario.

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Whilethereisuncertaintyinthemeansbywhichwewillmaintainanegativeemissionstrajectory,wecanobservethatthe1.5and2degreescenariosareessentiallyidenticalupto2030,andthereforeactionsputinplacetodayfora1.5degreescenariocanalsobeconsistentwitha2degreescenario.

Table 2. Average per capita emissions figures for C40 cities in 1.5 and 2 degree target trajectories.

Figure 10. C40 cities’ emissions per capita trajectories to 2100 to remain within 1.5 and 2 degree budgets.



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Estimating Carbon Trajectories and Targets

ThetargetsandbudgetspresentedareviewedasappropriatefortheC40groupofcitiestoday,basedontheavailableevidence.Duetotheconstituentelementsoftheanalysis,theywillnotbedirectlytransferabletoothersectorsorevengroupsofcities,andsoshouldonlybeusedasguidingtargets.Asoutturnemissionsevolveinthefuture,itmaybenecessarytore-evaluatethesetargettrajectories.

3.6 THE SCALE OF C40’S CHALLENGE: THE SAVINGS NEEDED TO DELIVER THIS TRAJECTORY

ThenextstageinouranalysisistodeterminethesavingsneededacrosstheC40networkofcities,andwithineveryindividualcity,comparedwithabusinessasusual(BAU)scenario.

WehavedevelopeddetailedtrajectoriesforeachC40city,howeverthesearepresentedonlyinaggregateinthisreport.

3.6.I VOLUME OF SAVINGS

Table3presentstwoperspectivesonthevolumeofemissionssavingsnecessaryunderthe1.5and2degreemodelledscenarios.Emissionsreductionsatthebeginningofeachdecadeto2050areshownagainstboththe2015baseline(whichisstatic),butalsoagainsttheBAUinthatyear.

Aspartofthetargettrajectory,itisexpectedthataggregateC40emissionswillcontinuetoincreaseyear-on-yeartoapeakof2.5GtCO

2ein2020.Thereafter,atargetofa24-26%reductionon2015

emissionslevelsby2030isassumedforbothtemperaturerisescenarios(Table3).The1.5degreescenariomustcontinuewiththispaceofdeclinefrom2030to2050,withC40citiesaveragingnet-zeroemissionsbymid-century.WhencomparedtotheBAUprojectionineachyear,itisevidentthatthevolumeofsavingsisevenhigher.

Table 3. C40 cities’ projected emissions savings per capita versus 2015 baseline year for 1.5 and 2 degree scenarios.

Savings against 2015 emissions Savings against BAU emissions per year

1.5degreescenario 2degreescenario 1.5degreescenario 2degreescenario

2020saving -5% -5% 22% 22%

2030saving 26% 24% 69% 68%

2040saving 68% 51% 91% 87%

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Emissions per capita in 2050 (tCO

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1.5 degrees 4.9 2.9 0.0

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The intensity of savings

Thepercapitaemissionssavingsarealsoimportanttoconsider,astheyprovideafurtherindicationoftheintensityofactionneeded.Theyindicatetheamountof“effort”requiredpercitizen(directlyorontheirbehalf)toshifttheircity’strajectorydownwards.

Figure 12: Projected emissions savings per capita against BAU for all typologies.

Thetargettrajectoriesaimtosplittheresponsibilityofabsoluteemissionsreductionbetweenthecityclassifications.However,itisalsoclearthat,whenaimingforzero,significantreductionsmustbemadeacrosseverytypology.Althoughthereisalreadydivergence,intheyearsupto2020alltypologiessharesimilarreductionsovertheBAUinpercapitaterms.

The challenge will not be easy for most cities

Thetrajectoriesenvisiondevelopedcitiestakingthebulkoftheburdeninthefirst15years,inbothpercapitaandabsoluteterms.SteepDeclinecities,inparticular,deliverthegreatestper-capitasavingsupto2045,anddeliveraroundtwiceasgreatareductionversustheBAUastheothertypologiesby2030.InyearsofpeakreductionsomeSteepDeclinecitieswillneedtoachieveyear-on-yearreductionsofupto25%.

WhilePeakingcitiesmustalreadyslowtheirpercapitaemissionsgrowthinearlyyears,afterareprievetheytoomuststarttoreduceinpercapitaterms,withbothEarlyandLatePeakcitiesneedingabsolutepercapitasavingssimilartotheSteepDeclinecitiesby2050.Itisimportanttonote,therefore,thatit is in all cities’ interests to begin reducing per capita emissions as soon as possible.Thelaterthereductionscommence,thesteepertheratesofreductionthatarerequiredinlateryears,inbothpercapitaandabsoluteemissionsterms.ThiscanbeobservedinFigure8,wherethedeclineratesofPeakingcitiesinlateryearsmustbealmostassteepasthosefromSteepDeclinecitiesintheirearlyyearstoachievezeroemissionsby2050.

Withalimitedcarbonbudget,andanarrowtimescaletodeliverit,itisclearthatrobust,ambitiousactionisrequired.ThenextsectionsetsouttherolethatC40citieswillplayindeliveringthisaction.

Table4illustratesthatcitiesgroupedineithertheSteepDeclineorLatePeaktypologiesneedtomakethelargestoverallsavingsfromtheirBAUtrajectories(asaproportionofallC40citiestotal).

ByreadingacrosstherowsinTable4,onecancomparetheoverallvolumeofsavingsbycitygroup,andhencethelevelofeffortoractionrequired.CitieswithaSteepDeclinetrajectoryarerequiredtomakeconsiderablylargersavingsintheearlyyears.By2020,thesecitiesneedtosavebetweentwoandfivetimesasmuchasanyothertypologygroup.By2050,however,thePeakingcitiesneedtotakeastepchangethroughtransformativeaction.TheywillbenefitfromthelessonslearnedbytheDecliningcities,reducingper-capitaemissionsinthelaterdecadesatsimilarpacestoDecliningcitiesintheearlydecades.

In2020,C40cities’annualemissionstargetis0.7GtCO2eperyearbelowtheBAUemissions,requiringa

cumulativesavingfrom2015of1.9GtCO2e(Figure11).

Thetargetgapwidensovertheyears,stretchingfromadifferenceinannualemissionsbetweentheBAUandthetargettrajectoryof0.7GtCO

2ein2020,to12GtCO

2ein2050.Cumulativesavingscorrespondingly

increasefrom2GtCO2eby2020to196GtCO

2eby2050.FurthermilestonesarehighlightedinFigure11.

Figure 11: C40 cities’ emissions per capita target trajectories vs BAU.

Table 4. Cumulative savings against BAU trajectory by typology, 1.5 degree scenario.

Typology Early peak Late peak Steady decline Steep decline

Cities per Typology 8 17 25 34

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2e) (GtCO

2e) (GtCO

2e)

2020 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.0

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2050 34.5 58.7 20.3 81.6

2100 250.9 336.3 86.4 316.5

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By 2020, C40 cities have saved a total of 2 GtCO2e

By 2030, total savings are 25 GtCO2e

By 2040, total savings are 88 GtCO2e

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DEADLINE 2020: A PATHWAY TO A CLIMATE SAFE WORLD 4.1 C40CitiesHaveMadeTremendousProgressSoFar 39

4.2 DeterminingFutureActionPathways 40

4.3 GlobalViewOfTheC40ClimateActionPathway 42

4.4 CityGovernmentsWillHaveAPivotalRoleAsActorAndConvenor 44

4.5 BendingTheCurve:2016-2020 46

4.6 AcceleratingAndUniversalisingReductions:2020-2030 49

4.7 EmbeddingAClimateSafeFuture:Beyond2030 50

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CHAPTER4

Deadline 2020presentsapathwayforhowC40citiescouldsetthemselvesonatrajectorytodeliverontheambitionoftheParisAgreement.Theemissionsreductionpotentialof62programmesweremodelled,comprisingover400climateactions.Citybycity,trajectoriesweredevelopedtoidentifywhatactionmustbetakenandinwhatorder,toenableallcitiestocontributetothe1.5degreeambition.ThisprovideseachC40citywithapathwaytoprioritisethenextstepsofprogressionalongtheC40targettrajectory(Section3.5)

Thestepscitiescantaketoreducecarbonemissionshavebeensplitintosectors,programmes,andthenspecificactions.The62programmes(asdefinedbyC40),coverfiveSectors–Energy;Buildings;Transport;Waste;andUrbanPlanning,XIVencompassingarangeofemissionssourcesasoutlinedinFigure13below.Actionswithintheprogrammesaredividedinto“vital”(crucialforthesuccessoftheProgramme)and“non-vital”(non-essentialbutsupporting),andthesameactionmayfeatureinmorethanoneprogramme.410possibleactionsaregroupedinto62programmescoveringfivesectors.Thesefivesectorsencompassallcityemissionssources.12datapointsarerecordedpercityaction,includingscale,lever,cost,emissionssavings,andnetworkingmechanism.RefertoCAM3.052forfurtherdetailonC40’sclimateactionframework.

Figure 13. Mapping GPC emissions classification to the C40 climate action sectors and programme areas.

Figure 15

Commercial building retrofit financial support

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C40 PROGRAMMES

4.I C40 CITIES HAVE MADE TREMENDOUS PROGRESS SO FAR

Beforeexploringwherecityactionmightdevelopgoingforward,itishelpfultoconsiderthesuccessfulandexpandingactionsthatarealreadyunderwayinC40cities.C40collectsdataontheclimateactionsthatcitiesaretaking.AtCOP21inParis,C40launchedthe3rdissueofClimate Action in Megacities 3.0 (CAM 3.0).Thereportpresentsadefinitiveassessmentofhowmayorsoftheworld’sleadingcitieshavetakenactiononclimatechangesincetheCOP15Copenhagenclimatetalksin2009.Sincethen,citieshavereportedthat11,000actionsarealreadyunderwayinC40cities.

Figure 14. Increase in reported action in C40 cities since 2011.

In2011,nearly40%ofactionswereonlyattheproposalorpilotstageandonly15%werefullyrolled-outatacity-widescale.In2016,halfoftheseactionsarebeingdeliveredatacity-widescale–anincreaseof260%–andafurther20%arebeingdeliveredatasignificantscale.Asthisevidenceshows,citieshaveexperimented,shared,piloted,learned,collaborated,invested,andarenowmovingforwardwithdeliveringanunprecedented,trulyglobalwaveofeffectiveactiononclimatechange.

Furthermore,80%ofactionsreportedin2016areplannedforfurtherexpansionbycities,upfromaround40%in2011,indicatingrisingconfidenceamongcityleadersthattheircurrentclimateactionswillbeeffective.

XIV Note,thesedifferfromtheGPCsectorsoutlinedinChapter2.TheGPCsectorsareusedtoestablishtheemissionsinventoriesfortheC40cities,whereastheC40SectorshavebeenselectedastheybestfittheC40Programmes.

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The C40-Arup Partnership Climate Action Pathways (2CAP) Model

ThescenariosdiscussedinDeadline 2020aretheoutputsofC40andArup’sClimateActionPathways(2CAP)model.The2CAPmodelwasdevelopedtotakeonboardthewealthofcitydatathatC40hascollectedsinceClimateActioninMegacities1.0in2011.Itenablesaconsistent,impartialassessmentofthenecessaryprogrammesofactionthatcitiesneedtotakeinordertomeettheirassignedemissionstargets.Furtherdetailofthemodel’sstructureandassumptionsarepresentedinAppendixA,andthecompanionmethodologicalreport.

Taking action: How 2CAP prioritises action

2CAPtakesintoaccountadetailedsetofcitycharacteristicsdatatoestablisha2015baselineforeachcity,aswellasaBAUemissionstrajectory.ThisbaselineincludesdataonpopulationandGDPwithrespectivegrowthrates,emissionsinventories,reportedexistingclimateactions,cities’levelsofpoweroverassetsandfunctions,andsectorfuelmixes.Programmesandactionsaredispatchedaccordingtopre-definedcriteria(below)suchthattheresultantemissionstrajectoryfollowsthetargetascloselyaspossible.

Dispatching programmes and actions: key model steps

• PotentialScorecalculatedforeachaction(city-specific)basedoncarbonimpactonfullroll-outinfullroll-outyear,citypoweroverrelevantassets,andapplicationofactioninsimilarcities.

• ProgrammesofactionrankedaccordingtoPotentialScoreoftheirconstituentVitalandNon-Vitalactions.

• Startingfromthehighest-rankedprogramme,dispatchvitalactionstodeliversavingsoverBAUcommensuratewithtargettrajectory(savingsassessedinyearoffullactionroll-out).

• Oncenon-vitalactionsarereached,dispatchtheseuntilsavingsarenotasgreatasthepotentialinthenexthighest-rankedprogramme.

• Actions,oncedispatched,scaleupattheirfullcity-widescaleoveranaction-specificroll-outperiod.

2CAP Model Functionality

Actions Dispatch Module

Resultant Emissions Trajectory

CollateCities

External Drivers

City A

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ScenarioConditions& Controls

ActionCarbonImpacts

Baseline Dataset

84 CitiesActions takenPowers dataBAU trajectoryNational energy carbon characteristics...

New data entry

Loop through all cities

Graphical Dashboards and Outputs

AnalysisMappedcharacteristics

4.2 DETERMINING FUTURE ACTION PATHWAYS

TherestofthischapterconsidershowC40citiescanbuildonthehugemomentumcreatedtodate,toachievethecarbontrajectoriesoutlinedinSection3,whicharenecessarytoputtheParisAgreementontrackfordelivery.

TheimportantfactorsthathavebeenconsideredwhenexaminingtheappropriateactionpathwayforeachC40cityinclude:

• Actions taken to date by each city:theexistingC40baselineinventoryofactions,sourcedfromfourClimateActioninMegacitiessurveysincluding,mostimportantly,thescaleoftheactionbeingtaken.

• Modelled impact of the action: giventheshorttimeremainingtodeliverreductions,itisvitalthatthemostimpactfulactionsareprioritised.Carbonabatementpotentialforeachpossibleactionhasbeenassessed.

• Time to develop action to scale: assumedminimumroll-outtimesforactionstoprogressfromplanningandpilotstagesthroughtofulltransformative,city-widescale.

• Mayoral power:datasourcedsince2011onthelevelsofcontrolorinfluenceoverupto70cityassetsandfunctions,suchaslevyingtaxesorenergyprocurement.

• Replicability: anindexcapturingaparticularaction’sincidenceinacertainregion,providinganindicationofitseaseofapplicationinother,similarcities.

Themodellingundertakeninsupportofthisworkconsidersallthesefactors(seemethodologicalpaperfordetailXV).Theresultingpathwaysareexploredbelow.

Notably,otherthanpotentialemissionssavings,otherbenefitsorrisksassociatedwitheachactionhavenotyetbeenincludedintheanalysis.Boththefundingrequiredperactionandtheotherbenefits(suchascreationofnewjobs)havenotbeenincludedinthecurrentmodelatthisstage,butitisintendedthattheywillbeaddedatalaterdate.

XV www.arup.com/deadline

Figure 15. Increase in reported action in C40 cities since 2011.

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4.3 GLOBAL VIEW OF THE C40 CLIMATE ACTION PATHWAY

Basedondatacollectedin2016,weknowthatC40citiesarealreadytakingnearly11,000actionstomitigateandadapttoclimatechange.Butwithinjustfouryears,14,000additionalactionswillhavetobeinthepipelineacrossC40’smembership,movingfromplanningandpilotstagestofulltransformative,city-wideinitiatives.Onaverage,thisisover140actionsinitiatedpercityperyearto2020.

WithanoverarchingtargettrajectoryestablishedforC40(Section3),thequestionarises:whatdoesa1.5degreeroutemapactuallylooklikeforC40cities,includingthetimelinesforspecificprogrammes,andwhentheactionswithinthoseprogrammesmustbedelivered?

The next four years are critical

Thefindingsshowthatthenextfouryearsarecritical;thetargettrajectoryrequiresemissionstobereducedby32%comparedwithaBAUtrajectoryby2020.Thisreductionequatesto2GtCO

2eofavoided

emissions,puttingcitiesontracktodelivertheircarbonbudgets.ThehighestpercentageofactionsthatmustbetakenareintheBuildingsandTransitSectors.Takingtheseactionsandensuring54%areatcity-widescaleby2020(Figure18)isfundamentaltoreachingzeroemissionsby2050.

Figure 16. Comparison of historically reported actions with estimated future requirements for C40 cities, 1.5 degree scenario. Note, adaptation actions are not modelled because methods to quantify and measure the impact of adaptation action are still under development.

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Figures17andFigure18confirmthescaleofthechallenge.WhilecomprehensiveplansandstrategiesarestillbeingdrawnupacrossmanyoftheC40cities,thevolumeofactiontakenfrom2016-2020needstoincreasebyoverthreetimestoday’slevels(Figure18).Meanwhile,actionsalreadyunderwaytodaymustnearlyallrampuptoacity-widescaleby2020.Figure18showsthefive-yearlygrowthinactionneeded(asmultipliers),andalsodemonstratesthepacewithwhichactionsstartedintheinterveningtimeperiodsneedtoshiftfromplanningandpilotingphases(lightshades)tocity-wide(darkestshades).

Beyond2020,another50%increaseinactionwillberequiredby2025,andadriveforcity-wideactioncontinued.AnnualsavingsversustheBAUtrajectorymustmorethandoublebetween2020and2030,withurbanenergyprogrammesmakingupthevastmajorityofemissionsreductions(Figure17).

Figure 18. Breakdown of scale of actions being taken up to 2050 with growth in Action count annotated.



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Figure 17. Estimated emissions savings per year versus BAU achieved by C40 cities to 2050, 1.5 degree scenario.



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4.4 CITY GOVERNMENTS WILL HAVE A PIVOTAL ROLE AS ACTOR AND CONVENOR

ExaminingtheimpactoftheactionpathdemonstratesthatC40citiescanachieveaverysignificantproportionofthenecessaryreductionagainsttheirBAU.Accordingtothisresearch,51%oftheemissionsreductionsneededtoputC40citiesonapathconsistentwiththeParisAgreementcanbedeliveredthrough“CityAction”,thatisactionwithinthosecitiesandoverwhichcitygovernmentscouldhavesomeinfluence(seecall-outbox).Thistranslatesto525GtCO

2esavedbetween2015and2100outofatargetofjustover

1,000GtCO2e.Thoseremainingemissionsreductionswillneedtobeachievedfromregionalandnational

initiativesoutsideofcities,includingdeliveringanet-zeroemissionsenergyandelectricitysupplyand,from2050onwards,byachievingnet-negativeemissions(discussedinlatersections).

Figure 19. City Action compared against BAU and target trajectories. Excludes benefits of grid decarbonisation.



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City Action enables 5511%% of the savings against BAU

Citiescanbeginonthetargetpathwayalone,butcollaborationsoonbecomesnecessary.AsshowninFigure20,ashortfallinemissionsreductionversustheBAUdoesnotstarttill2023,meaningcitiescandriveCityActionalonetosetthemselvesontherightpath.C40citiesstilldeliverapproximately85%ofcumulativeemissionssavingsby2030,atotalof21outofthe25GtCO

2esavedoverthisperiod.

City Action

Inthisstudy“CityAction”referstothedirectactionstakenbycitygovernments,suchasinvestmentsininfrastructure.Italsoreferstointerventionsandchangesthattheycaninfluencewithintheircityboundaries(particularlywheretheydonotnecessarilyownoroperateassets,forexample).ThesearetheactionsdescribedintheClimateActioninMegacitiesframework.

ThegraphsillustratingCityActiondonotincludethebenefitsofadditionalenergydecarbonisationandelectrificationfromcitycarbontrajectories.

City action alone is not enough to deliver 1.5 or 2 degrees

Figure19showsthatCityActionaloneisunlikelytobesufficienttodeliveroneithera1.5or2degreescenario.Collaborationwithexternalpartnersandwiderstakeholderswillbecrucialtodeliverthefurthertransitionsnecessary.Beyond2023,Figure20showsthatwhiletheiractionscontinuetodeliversavingsagainsttheBAU,ontheirowncitiescannotdeliveronthesteep,aggressivetrajectoriesnecessaryforboth1.5and2degreescenarios.

Figure 20. City Action driving emissions reduction up to 2023.



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4.5 BENDING THE CURVE: 2016-2020

Theactionstakenandsetinmotionoverthenextfouryearswilldeterminewhethercities’ambitionsarerealised.AsillustratedinFigure21,effortswillberequiredtodiverttheBAUpathofC40cities’emissions,fromanincreaseof35%betweennowand2020.Thisrepresentsacumulativeavoidanceof1.9GtCO

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thisearlyperiod.

Figure 21. Bending the curve: emissions reductions necessary from the BAU by 2020, for 1.5 degree scenario. Note y-axis does not start at zero.

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ThemodestnetincreaseintotalC40emissionsto2020setsthestageforamultilateralemissionsdeclineofunprecedentedambition.Duetothelonglead-intimesforactions,12,000actions–oronaverage143actionsperC40city–mustbeinitiatedby2017alonetoenablethenecessaryemissionsreductionsinlateryears.AsdiscussedinC40’sresearchoncarbon“lock-in”,itcantakeanumberofyearsfromaclimateaction’scommencementuntilitsfullbenefitsarerealised;mostofthenewlyinitiatedactionsindicatedabovewillnotdelivercarbonsavingsinyearone.

Atthesametime,5,800actionsthatarealreadybeingtakenbyC40citiesmustbeexpandedasquicklyaspracticable,with95%tobeatacity-widescaleby2020.Expandingtheseexistingactions(69actionspercityonaverage)willbethecrucialsteptodeliveringthenearer-termsavings.

By2020,C40averagepercapitaemissionsshouldhavecontractedfrom5.1tCO2e/capitain2015to

4.86tCO2e/capita,counteractinga10%increaseintotalpopulationduringthisperiod.Meanwhile,atotal

of23,000actionsmustbeunderway(Figure16).

City typologies

Themajority(63%)oftheemissionsreductionsachievedby2020comefromcitiesassignedanimmediatelydecliningemissionstrajectory.Ofthe1.9GtCO

2eemissionssavedoverBAU,1.0GtCO

2eis

savedbySteepDeclineemissionstrajectorycitiesand0.2GtCO2eissavedbySteadyDeclinecities.

Muchoftheburdenforemissionsreductionupto2020fallsoncitiesintheSteepDeclinetypology,with53%ofthetotalsavingsinthisperiodattributedtothisgroup,or1.0GtCO

2e.However,asalreadydiscussed,

theambitionsofDeadline 2020meanthateveninthisearlytimeperiod,citiesthatareabletoslightlygrowtheiremissionspercapitalevels(Peakingtrajectories),muststillworkhardtoreduceemissions.

Sectors

Thepathwayto2020seestheexpansionofabroadmixofActionacrossSectors,withthemajorityofactionintheBuildingsSector,asseeninFigure22.Between2016and2020,actionintheTransitSectorshouldexpand,whilstthepercentageofactionintheBuildingsSectorshouldreducecomparedwiththeexistingsplit.Allsectors,however,seeagrowthinactionacrossC40cities.

Figure 22. Comparison of sector action focus for actions already underway in 2015 and continued (left), and those initiated up to 2020 (right).


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DiscussedfurtherinSection6.3,theperiodupto2020willseesomeofthegreatestinvestmentscommittedbycitiestoclimateaction.Asmuchas$375billion–nearly30%oftheinvestmentrequiredto2050–mustbecommittedacrossallcitiesby2020.Dependingonthepowerstructureincities,thiscommitmentmustcomefromcityadministrationsthemselves,orotherstakeholders,suchasutilities,theprivatesector,orindeedtaxpayers.

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Upto2020,Europeistheregionrequiringthegreatestlevelsoftotalinvestmentat$110billion,asshowninFigure23.WhilstthisissomewhatdrivenbythelargerepresentationofEuropeancitiesintheC40,itisalsoareflectionoftheearlysavingsnecessaryinanumberofcities.Onaper-citybasis,however,theEastAsiaregionrequiresthegreatestamountofcapitalcommitmentsat$6.7billiononaverage,closelyfollowedbySoutheastAsia&Oceania.So,despitetheseregionshavinganumberofcitiesonPeakingtrajectories,thisdoesnotprecludethemfromneedingtofundsignificantactiontoday.

Win-win

By2020,allC40citiesarecommittedtoproducingdetailedClimateChangeActionPlans(CCAPs)settingouttheirstrategiesforachievingthetargetsinthisreportandbeyond.Bythisstage,thepathaheadwillbeclear,supportedbythecontinuedresearchofC40,itspartners,andwiderstakeholders.

4.6 ACCELERATING AND UNIVERSALISING REDUCTIONS: 2020-2030

Theproposalforthedecadebetween2020and2030ismuchthesameasthatfortheyearsto2020:increasethenumberofactionsbeingtakenacrosscities,andincreasethescaleofthosealreadyunderway.

Actions initiation and scaling

Anadditional13,500actionsmustbeinitiatedinthedecadefrom2020to2030,representinga59%increasecomparedwiththeactionsinventoryin2020.Thismeansthatasmuchas160actionspercity,peryearmustbeinitiatedtomaintainambition,withalmost3,000kickingoffin2023alone.ShowninFigure24,thisrepresentsayear-on-yearincreaseof13%.

34%oftheactionsalreadyunderwayby2020,butnotyetatacity-widescale,mustcontinuetogrowtheirlevelsofpenetrationtofullcity-widescale.By2030,nomorethan10%ofallactionsinplaceshouldbesmallerthanacity-widescale.Duringthistimeperiod,averagenewactionspercityarelargelysimilaracrossthedifferenttypologies.

Figure 24. Tracking growth in new actions necessary to deliver 2020 – 2030 trajectory.

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4.7 EMBEDDING A CLIMATE SAFE FUTURE: BEYOND 2030

Movingbeyond2030,weseethedivergenceofthe1.5and2degreetrajectories.Achieving1.5degreesrequiresthecontinuationofambitionandeffortsacrossallsectors,maintainingtherateofabsoluteemissionsreduction.

Figure 25. Divergence of 1.5 and 2 degree target trajectories beyond 2030.

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97%ofactionsneededthroughto2050shouldhavealreadybeenstartedby2030;theinterveningyearsareprimarilyforscalingupinvestmentandroll-out.By2032,everycityintheEarlyPeak,LatePeakandSteadyDeclinetrajectorygroupsshouldhaveinitiatedallavailableaction(Figure26).Fromthisyearonwards,thesecitiessolelyrelyonthedecarbonisationofenergysupplytoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050.Acrossalltypologies,allcurrentlyavailablecityclimateactionsshouldbetakenby2037.

Figure 26. Years by which all actions are taken for each city typology.

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5.3 TheEnergyPathway 60

5.4 TheBuildingsPathway 66

5.5 TheWastePathway 70

CHAPTER5

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ThefollowingsectionspresentthepathwaycitiesshouldfollowineachofthefivesectorsandtheprofileofeachoftheC40regions.

Todemonstratethepotentialimpactsofactiondeliveredatthecitylevel,thegraphsinthissectiondonotincludethesavingsachievedonceelectricalgriddecarbonisationandelectrificationarefactoredin.DiscussedfurtherinSections7.1and7.2,thesetwoelementsarecrucialtoachievinga1.5degreetrajectory.

5.I THE URBAN PLANNING PATHWAY

Landuseplanningdecisionsmadetodayarecriticaltodeliveringalowcarbonfuture,particularlybecausetheseactivitieshaveimpactsacrossallothercitysectors.Theydeterminehowandwhereourcitiesgrow,whetherthroughnew-buildconstruction,retrofitorregeneration,whetherindense,walkableneighbourhoods,connectedtotransportationandheatingandcoolinginfrastructureorsprawling,isolatedandcardependent.Theseactionshaveastronglong-termimpactontheeffectivenessofclimateeffortsintransport,buildings,energyandwaste.

Currently,urbansprawlcoststheUnitedStatesalonenearlyUS$400billionannuallyandisexpectedtocontributeto60%oftheglobalenergyconsumptiongrowthofcities.Urbansprawlalsoexacerbatestheeffectsofsocialexclusionlinkedtotheincreaseofslumsandgatedcommunities.11Byapproachingthischallengeholisticallyandinanintegratedmanner,citiescanreduceglobalinfrastructurerequirementsbymorethanUS$3trillionoverthenext15years,deliveringanannualabatementof0.3GtCO

2eby2030and

0.5GtCO2eby2050.12Whencitieslinktheirlanduseplanningdecisionstotheirclimateactionplans,they

arebetterabletodeliverbothinastrategic,integratedmanner,oftenmuchmorecosteffectively.Whendoneseparately,theeconomiesofscaleandopportunitiespresentedattheearlystagesofplanningaremissedandonlyachievedthroughmoreexpensiveefforts.

Theopportunitiesforcitiesinthissectorfocusondeliveringthedevelopmentofcompact,connected,andcoordinatedcities.Thisenablessignificantindirectemissionssavingsandcompoundstheeffectsofthedirectoperationalemissionssavingsachievedinthemainemissionssectors.Thefactthatlanduseplanningtypicallydeliverssavingsthroughitsenablingimpactonothersectorsmakescalculatingthoseimpactsverycomplex.Forthisreason,inthisstudytheyhavenotbeenseparatedoutandestimatedindependently.Insteadtheyareconsideredpartofwhatenablestheothersectorstodelivertheirsavings.ThiswillbethesubjectoffurtherresearchatC40tounpackandpresentthesesavings.

Totakeadvantageoftheopportunitieslanduseplanningprovidesinachievinga1.5degreefuture,keyactionsaretoprioritizelanduseplansanddecisions,linkingthemwithclimateaction.

Figure 27. The breakdown of Urban Planning Programmes that cities must deliver.



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5.I . I URBAN PLANNING AND ADAPTATION

Astheclimatechanges,theappropriatelanduseswithinacityarelikelytochange.Well-designedurbandevelopmentcanreduceclimateriskbyminimisingtheconcentrationsofpeopleorassetsinareasofextremerisk.Alternately,poorlanduseplanningcanamplifyclimateimpacts,forexamplebyincreasingtheareasofimpermeablesurfaceswhichcouldworsentheimpactofaflood.

Whenimplementingeco-districtsandaimingforcompact,connecteddevelopmentplannersshouldconsider:

• Banningfutureorfurtherdevelopmentinhighriskzones

• Limitingdevelopmenttypesorspecifyingconsiderationsfordevelopmentinareaswhereclimaterisksaremoderate

• Approvingtemporarydevelopmentwhilerisksremainmoderate,andre-evaluatingtheriskovertimetochangeorremovetemporaryuses

• Applyingdevelopmentcontrolsthatcanreducetherisk,suchassetbacks,minimumfloorheights,maximumdensities,cooltechnologies,permeableareasetc.

• Strategiclocationofcriticalinfrastructuresuchashospitals,schools,evacuationroutesandshelters,policeandemergencyservicesetc.

• Buy-back,acquisitionormovingexistingdevelopmentinhighriskzones

5.2 THE TRANSIT PATHWAY

TheTransitSectorcoversemissionsarisingfrompublicandprivatetransport,whetheronroad,rail,waterorair.With73%ofC40cities’measuredtransportemissionsarisingfromthedirectcombustionoffuels,thesectorpresentspossiblythegreatestchallengeforemissionsreductions.Overallstrategiesforemissionsreductioncompriseofdemandreductionandefficiency,andswitchingtolow-carbonfuelsorelectrification.Themeansbywhichcitiescaneffectthesechangesarediverse,andC40Transitinitiativesarebrokendownintoarangeofprogrammes.

5.2. I PROGRAMMES

Figure28showsthebreakdownofactionsthatmustbetakenwithintheTransitsectorbetween2016and2050.CitiesshouldfocustheirimmediateattentiononBusRapidTransitandimprovementstobusservices,shiftingtolowemissionfleetsandestablishinglowemissionszones.Fromearly2020therewillalsobeagreaterneedtoscaleuptraveldemandmanagementsolutions.

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5.2.2 TRANSIT PROGRAMMES BY IMPACT

TheTransitprogrammesstarttodeliversignificantemissionsreductionsby2030asactionsbuildtoaTransformativescale.CitiesthatdriveprogrammesmoreaggressivelytoaCity-widescalecoulddeliversavingssooner.Thetopfiveprogrammesbyimpactare:

• BusRapidTransitServicesandBusServices

• TravelDemandManagement

• LowEmissionsPrivateVehiclesProgramme

• LowEmissionsTruckProgramme

• FreightSystemsImprovementProgramme.

In2030,emissionssavingsagainsttheBAUwouldtotal340MtCO2e,nearlydoublingby2040to640MtCO

2e.

TheBusRapidTransitandBusServicesProgrammeisshowntobethemosteffectiveprogrammeinemissionsreductionterms,deliveringjustoverathirdofallpotentialsavingsfromin-cityaction.Actionswithinthisprogrammeincludeimprovingpublictransportinfrastructure,servicestoattractusers,aswellasfuelswitchingtolowcarbonenergysources.Theemissionsreductionisparticularlyaffectedbydrivingamodalshiftfromprivatevehicleusetomorecarbonefficientpublictransport.

TravelDemandManagementisthenextmostsuccessfulinreducingemissionsacrossC40cities,withemissionsreductionsof17%.Thisprogrammeinvolvesarangeofinitiativessuchascarsharing,congestionchargingzones,parkingrestrictionsandcyclehireprogrammeswhichtogethercanreduceenergyconsumptionfortransport.

LowEmissionPrivateVehiclesandLowEmissionTruckProgrammestogethercontributetojustoveronefifthoftheemissionssavings.Thishighlightstheneedforcitiestoencouragecityresidentsandindustrytomakemoresustainablevehiclechoices.Actionswithintheseprogrammesaredominatedbyfinancialincentivesincludinglowerregistrationfeesandrebatesforswitchingtovehicleswithlowcarbonfuel.

TheFreightSystemsImprovementProgrammedeliversanother9%oftotalemissionssavings.Keyactionsinthisprogrammeincludefreightconsolidationcentresandrealtimeinformationforlogistics.Thereductionoffreightjourneyswithinthecityisimportanttoalleviatecongestion.Otherpotentialactionsincludeofferingalternativeinfrastructure,forexampleusingcargobikesforlastmiledelivery.

Otherprogrammesnotinthetopfive,suchasthoserelatedtorailandactivemobility,contributeafurther28%totheSector’scumulativesavings.

Figure 29. Emissions savings against BAU from Transport Programmes.

File: Programme Analysis 2016-11-02.2.xlsb Location: \\Global.arup.com\london\ECS\ECS-Jobs\240000\240856-00 C40 2015 Research Programme\11 Vision 2020

\02 Modelling & Analysis\2 - Outputs\Programmes

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Figure 28. The volume of Transit Sector Programmes that cities must take.



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5.2.3 CITY-SPECIFIC PROGRAMME DELIVERY TIMELINES

Thedeploymentofprogrammesdiffersbycityaccordingtotheirassignedtrajectory,startingemissionspercapitaandtheirstartingpointintermsofprogrammesalreadybeingtaken.Ascanbeseenfromthechartsbelow,theNorthAmerica,LatinAmerica,andSoutheastAsia&Oceaniaexamplecitiesarelikelytohaveinstigatedthemosthigh-impact(largestsavingsincarbonterms,asshownbytheheightofthechartrows)TransitProgrammesby2015.TheAfricanexamplecity,meanwhile,showsasteadierprogrammedelivery,notneedingtofullykick-offthehighestimpactTransitprogramme,BusRapidTransitandBusServicesProgrammeuntil2025.

Overallby2030,thesecitiesneedtohavereachedacity-widescaleonmostofthekeyprogrammesinordertodelivertheemissionssavingsdescribedabove.

Programme Delivery Timelines

Theseprogrammedeliverytimelinechartsareusedtodisplaydispatchandcompletionofprogrammesintermsofimplementationscale(planningandpiloting,significant,orcity-wide)aswellasproportionalcontributiontototalsectoremissions.Assuch,eachProgrammeisofadifferentlengthandheight.ThedurationofaProgrammeisdeterminedbythefirstyearandlastyearthatanyvitalactionswithintheProgrammearetaken.Assuch,certainactionsmaybecompletedpriortoProgrammeend.Thefourcasestudycitiesdisplayedrepresenteachoftheassignedtypologies(seeSection3.4formoredetailonthebasisoftypologyassignment)inthefollowingorderfromlefttoright:SteepDecline,SteadyDecline,EarlyPeakandLatePeak.TheexacttimingsofProgrammedeliveryshouldnotbetakenasprescriptive.Rather,theyservetohighlightthelevelofactivityrequiredbycitieswithinthosetypologiestosetthemselvesonaclimatesafepathoverthenexttenyears.Notethatprogrammescontainmanyactionsandthereforethedispatchorderofspecificactionsmaydifferacrossthecasestudycities.

Travel demandmanagement

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5.2.4 TRANSIT AND ADAPTATION

Awell-functioningandinclusivetransportsystemunderpinstheconnectivityofaclimateresilientcity–providingevacuationroutesduringextremeevents,allowingcommunitiestoconnectmoreeasily,andindividualstoaccessemployment,healthandcommunityservices.Decisionstakentoday,onthelocationanddesignoftransportinfrastructure,willaffecthowwellthesystemadaptstoclimatechangefarintothefuture.

Toensuretheactionsoutlinedinthischapterareclimateresilient,citygovernmentsneedtoconsiderfutureclimateconditions.Forexample,constructingBRTsystems:

• WithmaterialsthataremoreresilienttohighertemperaturesandCO2concentrations

• Inlocationssafefromincreasedprecipitation,floodingandlandslip

• Thatincludegreenandblueinfrastructuretoensuretheroutesarecool,welldrained,helpingfurtherreducegreenhousegasemissionsandimprovingairquality.

• Thatcanrespondtoextremeevents,throughchangestoroutes,increasedservicesorimprovedtravelinformationservices.

5.3 THE ENERGY PATHWAY

TheenergyaspectoftheDeadline 2020pathwaydealsprimarilywithemissionsassociatedwiththesupplyofenergytoourdomestic,commercialandindustrialbuildings.C40cities’carbondatashowsthat29%ofC40citybuildings’XVIemissionsareassociatedwiththesupplyofelectricity.Thesupply-sideoftheemissionsreductionpathwayfocusesonswitchingtocleaner,moreefficientenergysources,andmoreefficientindustrialprocesses.

5.3. I PROGRAMMES

Figure30showsthebreakdownofprogrammesthatmustbeimplementedwithintheEnergySectorbetween2016and2050.By2020,over4,500actionsneedtohavebeentakenintheEnergySectoracrossC40cities.Mostoftheremainingnecessaryactionsneedtobeinitiatedinthenexttenyears,reaching90%deployment.CitiesmustthereforefocusondeployingBuilding-scaleandDistrictcleanenergysolutions,andIndustrialefficiency.

5.3.2 ENERGY PROGRAMMES BY IMPACT

By2050,C40citiescandeliveremissionssavingsofupto3.5GtCO2ethroughEnergyProgrammesalone.

Thetopprogrammesbyimpactare:

• BuildingScaleCleanEnergyDeployment

• District-scaleCleanEnergyDeployment(heating/cooling/power)

• FuelSwitchingProgrammes(buildingordistrictscale)

• City-ownedUtilitySwitchingFuels

• FuelSwitchingProgramme

• IndustrialEfficiency

ApartfromIndustrialEfficiency,allareprogrammesfocusedonincreasinguptakeoflowcarbongenerationinbuildings

XVI Takenhereasthe“stationary”emissionscategoryfromcitieswithavailableGPCdata

Figure 30. The breakdown of energy programmes that cities must deliver.



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AsshowninFigure31,byfarthehighestimpactProgrammeisBuilding-ScaleCleanEnergyDeploymentwhichdeliverstwofifthsoftotalemissionssavings.Thisfindinghighlightsthesignificantopportunityforbuildingstobeequippedwithrenewableandlowcarbongenerationsuchasphotovoltaicpanels,solarthermalandheatpumps.Citiescansupportthisthroughplanningregulationsandfinancialincentivesthattargetcommercialandresidentialbuildings.

DistrictScaleCleanEnergyDeploymentisalsoeffective,contributingjustover20%ofemissionsreductionpotential.Heatnetworksandmicro-gridsdeliveringenergytomultiplebuildingsoffertheopportunityforrapidscalingoflowcarbongeneration.Districtheatingandcoolingnetworksarehoweverconstrainedbytheneedforhighdemanddensitytobeviable.Similartotheprogrammeabove,regulatorypowersandinvestmentincentivesareneededtorealisethepotentialsavings.

Figure 31. Emissions savings against BAU from energy programmes.


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5.3.3 CITY-SPECIFIC PROGRAMME DELIVERY TIMELINE

Withinthecasestudycities,thehighestimpactprogrammeisBuilding-ScaleCleanEnergyDeployment.Thisactionshouldbeinitiatedacrossallcitiesby2017andreachcity-widescaleinallcitiesby2028.

TheNorthandLatinAmericanexamplecitiesare,ineffect,alreadyrollingoutmostoftheprogrammes,certainlythosewithgreatestemissionsreductionpotential.Overalltheirprofilesareverysimilar.TheDistrict-ScaleCleanEnergyDeploymentProgrammehasalongimplementationphase,takingupto45yearstofullyscaletocity-wideinthecaseoftheAfricanexamplecity,andthereforeneedstobeinitiatedassoonaspossible.

5.3.4 ENERGY AND ADAPTATION

TheimpactsofclimatechangeontheEnergySectorareamongthemostcriticalforcityinfrastructure,economyandpopulations.Energyensuresfunctioningtransportsystems,watersupplies,wasteservices,hospitals,schoolsandpublicbuildings,heatingandcoolingforresidentialandcommercialproperties,andunderpinseconomicactivity.

Buildinganddistrictscalecleanenergysolutionscancontributesignificantlytourbanenergyresilience.Bydistributingenergyproduction,acitycanbecomemoreresilienttoextremeeventsthatoccurataneighbourhoodlevel.Localenergyproductioncanbelessexposedtosupplychainrisksasfuelislocatedon-site.However,thedesign,constructionandoperationofcleanenergysolutionsmustconsidertherealitiesofthefutureoperatingclimate.Theyshouldbedesignedtocopewithhigheraverageandextremetemperatures,higherwinds,flooding,andchangesinavailabilityofwater.Forexample,storagebatteriesandotherpowerfacilitiesshouldbelocatedabovefloodlines(notinbasements),andpowersystemsneedtoensuretheyhavesufficientcoolingcapacitytodealwithhigherfuturetemperatures.

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5.4 THE BUILDINGS PATHWAY

AsmentionedinSection5.3,emissionsreductionsaspartofthebuildingspathwayareprimarilyfocussedonthedemandsideoftheproblem;reducingdemandforelectricityuseinlighting,ventilation,cooling,andotherservices,aswellasenablingbuildingstoutilisecleanerenergysources.

5.4. I PROGRAMMES

Figure32showsthebreakdownofprogrammesthatmustbetakenwithintheBuildingsSectorbetween2016and2050.Asillustrated,citiesshouldprioritisetheretrofittingofexistingbuildingstock,aswellasestablishingbuildingenergycodesandencouragingdatareportingacrossnewandexistingestates.Itiscriticalthatmostactionsaredeployedwithinthenext4years,reaching71%oftotalactionstakenby2020.

Figure 32. The breakdown of Buildings Sector Programmes that cities must deliver.



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Establishing building energy codes for residential/commercial/munipical buildings (existing / new build)

5.4.2 BUILDINGS PROGRAMMES BY IMPACT

AsillustratedinFigure33,theBuildingsProgrammesstarttodeliversignificantemissionsreductionsby2030asactionsexpandtoacity-widescale.Thetopprogrammesbyimpactare:

• CommercialBuildingRetrofitFinancialSupportorIncentives

• ResidentialBuildingRetrofitFinancialSupportorIncentives

• BuildingDataReportingandDisclosureforResidential/Commercial/Municipal

• EstablishingBuildingEnergyCodesforResidential/Commercial/MunicipalBuildings(new&existing)

• MunicipalBuildingRetrofits

ThehighestimpactprogrammeswithintheBuildingsSectorcanbesplitintotwodistincttypes:

1. Establishingdatareportingandcodesaffectingnewandexistingbuildings

2. Drivingenergyefficiencyimprovementsforexistingbuildings

AscanbeseeninFigure33,CommercialBuildingRetrofitFinancialSupportorIncentivesandResidentialBuildingRetrofitFinancialSupportorIncentivestogetherdeliver70%ofsectoremissionssavings.Theseprogrammesareaboutenablingthemajorenergyconsumersinacitytodrasticallyreduceenergyconsumptionthroughbuildingfabricimprovements,betterHVACsystemsandoperationofthese,aswellasinstallingenergyefficientlightingandappliances.

TheBuildingDataReportingandDisclosureprogrammeachieves17%ofemissionssavingsthroughahostofactionsaffectingnewandexistingresidential,commercialandmunicipalbuildingswhichinclude:

• Buildingsbenchmarking

• Auditsandadvice

• Energyperformanceratingsandstandards

• Energyperformancecertification

Theseindirectmeasuresenabletenantsandpropertyownerstobemoreinformedabouttheenergyprofileofbuildings,andestablishenergyefficiencyasanindicatorofbuildingquality,eventuallyraisingthestandardacrossthebuildingstock.

Figure 33. Emissions savings against BAU from Buildings Sector Programmes.


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Amongstthecasestudycities,theResidentialBuildingRetrofitFinancialSupportorIncentivesshouldbetheearliestprogrammetobecompleted.TheNorthandSouthAmerica,andSoutheastAsia&Oceaniaexamplecitiesareeffectivelyalreadyrollingoutmanyactionswithinthisprogramme,althoughtheSoutheastAsia&Oceaniaexamplecityisonlyatplanningandpilotingstage.

ThedeliveryoftheCommercialBuildingRetrofitFinancialSupportorIncentivesprogrammeisnotyettakingplaceacrossanyofthecasestudycities,howeverby2017,mostofthecitiesareshouldstartandexpandthesequicklytoacity-widescale.BuildingDataReportingandDisclosureforResidential/Commercial/MunicipalBuildingsprogrammeisanothercriticalprogrammethatcitiesshouldcommencewithinthenexttwoyears.

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5.4.4 BUILDINGS AND ADAPTATION

TheresilienceoftheBuildingsSectorcangreatlyimpacttheabilityofpeopletocopewithchangesintheclimate.Effectiveheatingandcoolingsystemscanallowresidentstolivecomfortablyevenwherethereisextremeheatorcold.

Buildingretrofitsthataddressenergyefficiencycanbedesignedtobehighlycomplementaryasadaptivemeasures.Forexample,green,brownorwhiteroofscanreduceenergyconsumption,butalsoprovideimprovedabilitytodealwithhighertemperatures.Waterefficiencymeasurescanalsoreduceemissions,whileatthesametimeimprovingtheresidents’abilitytocopewithdriersconditions.Morepermeablesurfacesandwaterrecyclingcanalsoimprovecapacitytomanagestormsandflood.Additionally,thereareopportunitiestoincorporateresiliencemeasureswhileimplementingemissionreductionretrofits.

5.5 THE WASTE PATHWAY

WasteemissionsmakeuparelativelysmallproportionofC40cities’inventories,howeverthismaybeexplainedbythereportingmethodsused.Underthecurrentreportingstructure,mostoftheactionsnotrelatedtowastedisposal,suchaswastereductionandavoidance,compostutilisationandrecycling,areattributedtoothersectorslikeenergy,agriculture,orindustry.Nevertheless,toachievea1.5degreefuture,theseemissionscannotbeignored,andmustbereducedtonetzero.

SuccessinmanagingemissionsintheWasteSectorwillrequireasystemicshiftincities.Thismeanstransitioningfrommanagingresidualwaste,toasustainablematerialsmanagementvisionthatcanbringGHGreductionsfargreaterthanthecurrenttotalemissionsreported,withactionsfocusedonwastepreventionandreductionandimprovedrecycling.14

Methanemitigation(landfillgascaptureandutilisation)andavoidance(divertingfoodandgreenwastefromlandfills)canalsocontributetolimitingglobaltemperaturerise,(87timesmorepowerfulthanCO

2overa20

yearperiod).Itisestimatedthatupto25%ofthecurrentglobalwarminghasbeencausedbymethane.15

Inparallel,citieswillneedtoimplementthestructuralchangesthatwillmovethemfrommanagingwasteintomaterialsandresourcesmanagement.Ithasbeenestimatedthatacrosssectoralapproachthroughsustainablematerialsmanagementandthedevelopmentofthecirculareconomycancuttheemissionsgapinhalf,ascurrentreductionscommitmentswillnotbesufficienttolimitglobalwarmingto1.5degrees.16

5.5. I PROGRAMMES

Figure34showsthebreakdownofprogrammesthatmustbetakenwithinthewastesectorbetween2016and2050.Thefollowingprogrammesrequirethegreatesteffortintermsofactionsneeded:

• Residential/Commercial/Industrialrecyclablescollectionprogramme

• Educationandawarenessprogrammes

• Circulareconomyprogramme

• WasteManagementsystemcostmonitoringprogramme(wastefees,payasyouthrow,propertytaxes,containerlimits).

Thefirstthreeprogrammesarefocusedondemandreduction,andthelatterontacklinglandfillmanagementtocapturemethaneemissions.

Figure 34. The breakdown of Waste Programmes that cities must deliver.



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Theprogrammewiththebiggestimpactintermsofemissionsreduction,asshowninFigure35,istheResidential/Commercial/IndustrialFoodWasteCollectionProgramme,whichcomprises23%oftheemissionsreductionpotentialfortheWasteSector.Thisprogrammeincludesactionssuchasencouraginghouseholdcompostingandlandfillgasmanagementofcollectedfoodwaste.

SimilaremissionssavingsareachievedbytheCommunityApplianceReuseProgrammewhichincludesactionssuchasproactivecollectionofdryrecyclablesandcompostablewastebythecitygovernment.

5.5.2 WASTE PROGRAMMES BY IMPACT

WithinWasteProgrammes,thereisamoreevenspreadinemissionsreductionacrossdifferentprogrammes.Figure35showsthatthegreatestemissionssavingsareassociatedwithprogrammesthatreducewastesenttolandfill.Theseprogrammesincludeimprovingcitycollectionofrecyclablesandfoodwaste,alongsideincentivisingsourcesegregationinhouseholdsandbusinessesalike.

Figure 35. Emission savings against BAU from buildings programmes.


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ProgrammesintheWasteSectorhaveaslightlylessurgentdispatchprofile,withtheexamplecitiesinNorthandSouthAmericanotstartingonthehighestimpactProgrammeuntil2022.TheProgrammeResidential/Commercial/IndustrialRecyclablesCollectionisshowntobeagreaterpriorityamongstthesecities,eitherbecausetheyhavealreadystartedthisprogrammeorwillbestartinginthenexttwoyears(SoutheastAsia&Oceaniaexamplecity).TheAfricanexamplecity’sProgrammedeliveryislaterthantheothercitiesbecausewasteemissionsrepresentaverysmallpercentageofitstotalemissions.Nevertheless,actionstocaptureandavoidmethaneareurgent,giventhetremendousglobalwarmingpotentialofmethaneintheshortterm.

5.5.4 WASTE AND ADAPTATION

Asclimatechangeimpactstheoccurrenceofextremeevents,itwillbeevenmorecriticaltoensurethatcitieshaveeffectiveandrobustwastemanagementsystems.Wastemanagementisessentialtothehealthandhygieneofthecityanditsresidents.Thisisparticularlytrueduringandafterextremeevents,whenaccesstocleanwaterisvitalandimpactsonwastecollectionanddisposalcanpotentiallycausesecondaryhealthcrises.

Thedesignandoperationofwastemanagementsystemsmustbesensitivetochangesinfutureclimate.Divertingwastefromlandfillthroughrecyclinginitiativesandcirculareconomyapproachescanassistinimprovingtheresilienceofthecitytofutureclimatechange;landfillconcentratesvulnerabilitytoclimatechangebycreatingpotentialfloodandcontaminationrisks.

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ACCESSING C40 CITIES’ CONTRIBUTION TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT 6.1 HowC40WillUnlockActionInCities 78

6.2 UrbanPartners:ActionInCities,ButNotByCitiesAlone 79

6.3 FundingTheC40CityContributionToDeliveringTheParisAgreement 81

CHAPTER6

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HavingestablishedaroutemapitisnowcrucialtounderstandhowC40cityleadersandtheirstaffwilldelivertheprogrammesoutlinedabove.ThissectiondiscussestheapproachthattheC40willusetosupportcitiesdrasticallyupscaletheirclimateactions(asdescribedinSection4);thevitalroleofotherstakeholdersindeliveringthishugepotential;andthescaleoffundingrequiredtodoso.

6.I HOW C40 WILL UNLOCK ACTION IN CITIES

C40willsupportmembercitiestoachievetheirtargetsbyengagingmayoralleadership;providingtechnicalassistancetosetanddeliverrobustemissionsinventories,targetsandplans;facilitatingpeertopeerexchangeofbestpractice;removingbarrierstoaction;andachievingastrongcollectivevoice.

Engaging mayoral leadership

C40wascreatedbymayorsandderivesongoingstrengthfromthatongoingmayoralleadership.C40willworktoensurethatby2020eachmayorhaspublishedarobustclimateactionplanconsistentwithachievingtheParisAgreementtargetofamaximumglobaltemperatureriseof1.5degreesCelsius.Inaddition,C40willalsoincreaseourdirectsupporttothosemayorswhowishtotakeprominentpositionsontheinternationalstageinsupportofclimateaction,providingdedicatedcommunicationsandbriefingsupport.

Supporting cities to prepare robust climate inventories, targets and plans

TosettargetstodelivertheParisAgreement,citiesfirstneedtounderstandwhatconstrainingglobaltemperatureriseto1.5degreeswouldentail.ThisiswhatDeadline 2020aimstoprovide.Itwillnotbepossibletodelivereffectiveemissionsreduction/avoidancestrategiesifcitiesarenotsimultaneouslymademoreresilienttotheever-growingimpactsofclimatechange.Supportingclimateadaptationeffortsis,therefore,acriticalpartofC40’sapproach,includingthroughtheprovisionofourClimateRiskAdaptationFrameworkandTaxonomy(CRAFT).

Accelerating action through peer-to-peer exchange and ramping up direct support

WhatdifferentiatesC40fromotherinternationalpoliticalorganisationsisthatC40citieshavedemonstratedhowtomakecompetitionandcollaborationworkintandem.The17sector-specificnetworksarethebedrockofthiscollaboration.C40willexpandthenumberofnetworksweoffer,providingtheopportunityforpeer-to-peerexchangeintheareaswherethereisgreatestpotentialforcuttingemissionsandreducingclimaterisk.

C40willconcentrateadditionalresourcesonprovidingcomplementarydirectsupporttoindividualcities.Inparticular,C40willofferdedicatedstafftojoincityhallteamsworkingintheareaswhereourdatashowsthereisgreatestopportunityforemissionsreduction/avoidance.

Removing barriers to climate action

C40’sresearchwithAruphasidentifiedanumberofbarrierstoeffectivecityclimateaction.Inparticular,manyC40citiesareunabletoattractthefinancetheyneedtodeliverlowcarboninfrastructure.TheC40CitiesFinanceFacility(CFF)willprovide$20mofsupportby2020tohelpunlockandaccesstoupto$1bnofadditionalcapitalfunding,byprovidingtheconnections,adviceandlegal/financialsupportthatenablescitiestodevelopmorefinanceableprojects.

Manymayorsstillstruggletowinpoliticalandpopularsupportforclimateaction.C40willprovidemayorswiththeevidencebasetoshowthatlowcarbondevelopmentwillraiselivingstandardsfaster,andembedstrongereconomicdevelopment.Similarly,throughourpartnershipwithTheNewClimateEconomyCitiesProgrammewewilldeveloptheevidencebaseforwhyhighertiersofgovernmentshouldempowerclimateactionincitiesandengagenationalandregionalpoliticalleaderstohelpachievethis.C40’sCitySolutionsPlatformwillhelptoovercomethebarriersthatprocurementrulescancreatetostrongerworkingwithbusinesses,byprovidinganeutralspacewherecitygovernmentscanaccessprivatesectorstrategicintelligencebeforeformaltenderingbegins.

Recognisingthatmanyofthebarriersthatpreventcitiesfromaccessingfinanceforinfrastructureprojectsarecausedbydecisionsoftheinternationalcommunityandnationalgovernments,C40launchedaCallforActiononMunicipalInfrastructureFinance.

Delivering global thought leadership, agenda setting communications and world class events

Citiesarenow,rightly,attheleadingedgeofglobaleffortstotackleclimatechange.Greaterresponsibilitiesaccrueasaresult,andsoC40willdevotemoreresourcestoourcitydiplomacyefforts,includingfullyrepresentingitsmembersinglobalinitiativessuchastheGlobal Covenant of Mayors,GlobalClimateActionAgenda,andtheIPCC.Wewillalsoincreaseengagementwithothernon-stateactors,particularlytheClimateGroupStatesandRegions,R20andWeMeanBusiness,aswellascity-networkpartners,ICLEIandUCLG.

OneofthewaysinwhichC40mayorscanexercisetheircollectivestrengthistosendclearsignalstomarkets,astheydidwhen26mayorssignedtheCleanBusDeclaration.InthenextBusinessPlanperiodC40willseektosupportatleastonesimilarmarket-shiftingdeclarationperyear,backingupcommitmentsmadebymayorswithtargetedlobbyingcampaignsandpartnershipwithorganisationsrepresentingbusiness.

C40hasplayedaninfluentialroleinachievinggreaterglobalrecognitionformayors’climateleadership.TosupporteffortstoraisetheprofileofC40’scollectivevoiceevenfurther,C40’scommunicationsteamwillbringtogetheranetwork of communications leadersacrossmembercities,equippedwithregularbriefings,communicationstemplatesonkeyissues,andopportunitiestoprofiletheircitiesefforts.

Finally,C40willcontinuetocelebratecitysuccessesintacklingclimatechangebyensuringourbiannualMayors’Summitremainsthemostimportanteventonthecitydiplomacycalendar,deliveringaregionalsummitineachofourregionsoverthebusinessplanperiod,andembeddingourannualC40CitiesAwardsasthepremierinternationalcityawardsevent.

6.2 URBAN PARTNERS: ACTION IN CITIES, BUT NOT BY CITIES ALONE

CitygovernmentswillhavevaryingdegreesofpowerandcontroloverdifferentSectorsandspecificclimateactions.However,inordertodevelopaclearimplementationplanforcitiesitiskeytounderstandwhatpowerscitieshaveoverassetsandfunctionswithinaspecificProgrammethatcanenablethemtotakeimmediateaction.

ResearchcarriedoutbyArupandC40in2015revealedthatthecapacitytocollaboratewithotheractorsmaybeasimportanttocities’climateactionashavingdirectcontrolovercityassetsandservices.17Partnershipswithothercities,nationalgovernments,privatebusinesses,investorsandcivilsocietyarecriticaltohelpcitiesdeliverclimateaction.

Aswehavealreadyseen(Section4.4),oftheconsiderablefutureemissionsreductionsrequiredfora1.5degreefuture,citygovernmentsarepositionedtodeliveroverhalfofthese.FromFigure36weseethat18%ofthe34,000actionsthatwillneedtobeinplaceby2030arealreadyrelatedtoassetsorfunctionswherecitieshavehighpower;citiesareinapositiontoinitiatetheseactionsunilaterally,assoonaspossible.

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6.3 FUNDING THE C40 CITY CONTRIBUTION TO DELIVERING THE PARIS AGREEMENT

AsC40citiesageandgrowtheywillneedtoinvestinrenewingandexpandinginfrastructure,andworkingtoenhancethelotoftheircitizens.Whilethedataisnotyetcomplete,initialestimatessuggestthatthecity-levelactionsnecessarytodelivertheDeadline 2020visionacrosstheC40citiescouldrequireinvestmentofover$1trillionto2050.Justunderhalfofthisisrequiredby2020.XVIIAveragetotalinvestmentacrosstheC40citiesofoverUS$50billionperyearmayberequireduptoandbeyond2030tomoveontoa1.5degreetrajectory.Onaper-citybasis,Figure38showsthatUS$10-30billionwillberequiredby2050dependingontheregion,withAfricanandSouth&WestAsiancitiesneedingthemost.

Figure 38. Regional breakdown of average investment requirements to 2050 for C40 cities under 1.5 degree scenario.

27,000furtheractionstobedeliveredupto2030willrequireamixtureofcitiesleveragingtheirnetworks,stakeholders,andpartnerships,andcollaboratingtodrivechange.Thiscouldrequire,forexample,leveragingfinanceandtechnicalexpertisefromtheprivatesector,orengagingwithsub-nationalgovernmenttoroll-outaprojectonaninter-cityscale.

Intermsofemissionsimpact(seeFigure37),theHighPoweractionsthatcitieshavetheabilitytoinitiateunilaterallytranslateto10%ofthetotalimpactthatcityauthoritiescancontributetointheirowncities.Whenexcludingthebenefitsofgriddecarbonisation,thistranslatesto5%oftotalreductionsrequiredagainsttheBAU.

Figure 37. How far City Action can get us.

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Citieswillthereforeberequiredtomanagesignificantpipelinesofinvestment,leveragingfundingfromarangeofpartiesandemployinginnovativefinancingmechanismstodeliverinfrastructureandpolicy.AsFigure38shows,asignificantburdenwillbeplacedonC40citiesindevelopingnations,potentiallythosewithloweraccesstocapital.Citieswilllooktointernationalinstitutions,nationalgovernmentsandprivateinvestorstosupporttheminfulfillingtheirDeadline 2020responsibilities.Tothisend,theC40CitiesFinanceFacility(Section6.1)isalsoreadytoassist.

XVII Thesefiguresarebasedonactioncostinformationsuppliedbycitiesin2014-2016C40ClimateActioninMegacitiesdatareturns,extrapolatedforallcities’modelledactionprofiles.Furtherdatacollectionwillbenecessarytofirmuptheseestimates.

Figure 36. Power breakdown of the actions taken by all 84 cities under the 1.5 degree trajectory.

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PLUGGING THE GAP: WHERE CITIES MUST RELY ON OTHERS 7.1 ElectrifyingOurCities 84

7.2 DecarbonisationOfOurEnergySupply 86

7.3 AchievingNegativeEmissions 88

7.4 PuttingItAllTogether:CumulativeSavingsMeanC40CitiesCanMeetCOP21ParisAmbition 89

CHAPTER7

PartnershipsandcollaborationwithincitieswillbefundamentaltodeliveringtheDeadline 2020actionpathway,butthiswillnotbeenoughwithoutwiderenablinginfrastructure.Citieswillneedtocompelthosewhoworkbeyondtheiradministrativeboundaries,collaboratingwithregionalandnational-levelactorsandotherstoensurethenationalandtheinternationalinfrastructurethatsuppliesthemisalsotransformedtomeetfuturetargets.

Todelivera1.5degreetrajectory,oreven2degreesinthelongerterm,zerocarbonemissionsmustbeachievedinallC40cities(Section3.5).Thiscanonlybeachievedbyensuringallenergyuseincitiesiszerocarbon.AsnotedbyJeffreySachsandotherexperts,thereisagrowingconsensusthatthiswillonlybeachievablethroughcompleteelectrificationofourcities,followedbyensuringallthatelectricityisgeneratedfromzerocarbonsources.Finally,giventheverysmallremainingcarbonbudgetifwearetolimitglobaltemperaturerisetonomorethan1.5degrees,therewillinevitablybeaneedforcarbonsequestration,ornegativeemissionssolutions.

7.I ELECTRIFYING OUR CITIES

Azero-emissions2050isincompatiblewiththecontinuedunabatedcombustionoffossilfuels.Thispointstotheneedtophaseouttheburningofgasandoilinourhomes,officesandfactories,anddieselandgasolineinourvehicles.

Today,electricityonlysupplies15%oftotalglobalprimaryenergy.18Whileelectricityisnotcurrently“zero”carbon,itsabilitytoactasavectorforlow-carbonenergymeansthat,undertherightconditions,anelectrificationtransitionwilldeliverdecarbonisationofthoseservices.

Thestageissetforthistransitionatacity-level,withcitiesreadytorolloutelectrictaxis(e.g.London),buses(e.g.Shenzhen19),andpublicelectriccarclubs(e.g.Paris20);ride-hailingcompaniesaggressivelypursuingautonomousvehicletechnologies(e.g.Uber,Lyft);andmajorcarcompanies(e.g.GeneralMotors,Volkswagen)andchallengers(e.g.Tesla,BYD)poisedtodelivermass-marketelectricvehicles.However,atpresenttherateofelectrificationinC40countries(notcities)iswellbelow10%inthevastmajorityofcases;thechallengeinthistransitionisthereforesubstantial.

Meanwhile,electricheatingtechnologieslikeheatpumps(fordirectheatingprovision,orharvestingofwasteheat)areincreasinglygainingtractionatdomestic,commercial,anddistrictscales,21whiledomesticsolarpanelandbatterystoragecostsareseeingrapiddeclinesalongsidetheutility-scaleofferings.Coupledwithanexponentiallygrowinginternetofthings,thenecessaryingredientsareinplaceforsmart,all-electric,evenoff-gridbuildings.

Anelectrifiedfutureisnolongeradistantdream,astheanalysisindicatesthatcitiesmustactnowtogetontoa1.5degreepathway,drivingandenablingtheshiftawayfromfossilfuels.Exampleactionsandprogrammesinthisendeavourincludes:

• Low-emissionstransportzones

• City-wideroll-outofchargingstations

• Supportforzero-carbonpublictransit

• Incentivesforelectricheating(suchasheatpumps),coupledwithenergyefficiencyanddemandreductionmeasuressuchasinsulationretrofit

• Equipmentscrappageschemes.

Figure 39. Electrification rates for three GPC emissions sectors and all countries with C40 cities.22

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Currently,40%ofglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsarisefromelectricitygenerationprocesses24,

thereforeradicaldecarbonisationofthegridiscrucial.Citiescanencouragethisthemselves,especiallyviathepromotionofdecentralisedenergygeneration.Indeed,numerouscitieshavealreadysettargetstosource100%renewableenergybetween2015and2050.25

Ultimately,todeliverwholesalesystemchange,nationalgovernmentshavejustasgreataresponsibilityascities.AstheelectrificationdescribedinSection7progresses,itislikelythatelectricaldemandwillincreasesignificantly,requiringadditionalgenerationcapacitytosupportthistransition.

Formanycities,fulldecarbonisationofelectricityisstilllikelytobedependentonmorecentralisedsystemsoperatingatanationallevel.Large-scaleenergynetworkswilltransferlow-carbonpowertoourcities–forinstancefromoffshorewindornuclearplants,carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)plants,fromenergystoragefacilities,orfrominter-connectorstoothercountries.Nationalgovernmentshaveagreatresponsibilityinsettingpolicyandvision,mobilisinginvestment,andworkingwithcitiestoensurethattheirParispledgestranslatetomeaningfulemissionsreduction.

7.2 DECARBONISATION OF OUR ENERGY SUPPLY

ItiscrucialtonotethattheabilityofC40citiestoachievetheirtrajectoriesreliesentirelyononemajoractionatthenationallevel:decarbonisationofenergy,primarilyaselectricity.Without this, every C40 city will miss its target.WithoutsupportfromnationaldecarbonisationofcentralisedgenerationC40citieswillemitjustunder92GtCO

2ebetweennowand2050,despitetheirbestefforts.Tostaywithinthe

1.5degreescenario,C40citieshaveacarbonbudgetof22GtCO2eto2100.

Toensurethatthetargetofzeroemissionspercapitaisachievedby2050,nationalelectricalsystemsneedtodecarboniseatanaveragerateof1.5%everyyear.Thisrepresentsadoublingofpastratesinthelastthreeyears.23

Figure40illustratestheimportanceofnationalgovernmentsmobilisingtodecarbonisethegrid.IfC40citiesfollowtheDeadline 2020 visionbutthereislowrateofdecarbonisation,theywillsignificantlydeviatefromthe1.5degreetrajectory.

Figure 40. Total C40 Cities Emissions: All Trajectories.



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TheimportanceofdecarbonisationofenergyisillustratedinFigure42.In2050,thecontributionofCityActiontothenecessaryemissionsreductionsisalmostthesameasthecontributionfromdecarbonisationactivitiesinallsectors.

Figure 42. Breakdown of the role of City Action and decarbonisation of energy supply for key city sectors in 2050, 1.5 degree scenario.



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7.3 ACHIEVING NEGATIVE EMISSIONS

Asalreadydiscussed,toreachzeroin2050,itisalsolikelythatnegativeemissionstechnologiesmustbeinplaceandoperatingatscale,expandingintothefuture.Sohowdowemovebeyondzeroemissions?Thisresearchshowsthataclimate-safefuturemaynowrelyonCO

2removaltechnologies,sometimes

knownas“negative-emissions”technologies.Thisisthecaseforboth1.5and2degreescenarios,whereCO

2removalfromtheatmospheremustatleastcompensateforthecontinuedemissionsofother

greenhousegases(fromagricultureandfossilfuelextraction,forexample),whichmaybefarmoredifficulttoeliminate.37

Inglobal1.5degreescenarios,negativeemissionswillalsobenecessarytocompensateforemissionsarisingduringthetransitiontozeronetemissions.Upuntil2050,C40’s1.5degreetargettrajectoryemits53GtCO

2e.Therefore,bringingnetemissionswithinthe22GtCO

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requiresthenetremovalof31GtCO2efromtheatmospherebetween2050and2100.

Arangeofnegativeemissionstechnologiesiscurrentlyunderscientificresearchandevaluation.ThesecaptureCO

2fromtheairdirectlyorindirectly,andpermanentlystoreitinundergroundreservoirs

orinotherstableformsforgeologicaltimescales.26ThesetechnologiesrelyontheeffectiveglobalimplementationofCarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)technologies.CCScoupledwithbio-energy(BECCS)iscurrentlybelievedtobethemosteconomicallyefficientnegativeemissionssolutionbecauseuseableenergyisaby-productoftheprocess.

BECCSandallothernegativeemissionstechnologieswillrequirethedevelopmentofsizeablenewinfrastructures,andveryhighongoingoperationalcosts.Whilesubjecttoconsiderableuncertaintyandsensitivitytoexternalfactors,ourestimatesindicatethatC40cities(ornationalgovernmentsontheirbehalf,tomakeupforpreviousemissionsbythosecities)couldbeexpectedtospendbetweenUS$2.1and$3.9trilliononBECCSbetween2050and2100tomeettheir1.5degreebudget.27

BECCSalsopresentschallengesforland-use,withitsbio-energyfeedstockpotentiallycompetingwithfoodcrops.Alternative,non-competingtechnologiesmightresultinC40citiesspendingupto$5.4trillion.27

Questionsremainregardingthefinancingofinterventionsonsuchascale;itwouldappearlogicalforthegreatestburdentobeplacedoneconomicallystrongernations.AsseeninFigure43,netremovalsofCO

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couldbeasmuchas50%oftoday’semissions.

Figure 43. Challenges associated with negative emissions.



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7.4 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: CUMULATIVE SAVINGS MEAN C40 CITIES CAN MEET COP21 PARIS AMBITION

Combiningalloftheaboveconsiderations,thestoryoftheDeadline 2020canbesummarisedintheimage,Figure44.

Fromastartingpointof2.4GtCO2e,C40greenhousegasemissionsin2015havethepotentialtorise

almostsevenfoldby2100ifnofurtherclimateactionistaken,underthebusinessasusualcase.AcarbonbudgetconsistentwiththeaspirationsoftheParisAgreementof22GtCO

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citiestoshowtheircommitmenttoa1.5degreefuture.TheemissionstrajectorynecessarytoachievethisrequiresC40citiestobenetzerocarbonby2050,andcontributingtoglobalnegativeemissionsefforts,removing31GtCO

2efromtheatmosphereinthesecondhalfofthecentury.

CitycommitmentstoclimateactionenableC40citiestosaveatotalofjustover500GtCO2eversusthe

BAUtrajectoryby2100withCityAction.However,whilethisrepresentsanimpressive51%ofthesavingsnecessary,citieswillbereliantonexternalactorsandeventstoachievethefulltransitiontozeroandbeyond.

Ofthe51%ofreductionsachievedthroughcityAction,20%ofthenecessaryactionscanbeimplementedbycitiesunilaterally,whiletheremaining80%canbedeliveredthroughacombinationofcollaborationandpartnerships.

Zerocarbonenergyandelectricityarerequiredtohitthe2050target,whilenegativeemissionstechnologiesonindustrialscaleswillbenecessaryfornetCO

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Figure 44. The Deadline 2020 Story.

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DEADLINE 2020 AS BLUEPRINT FOR WORLDWIDE DELIVERY OF PARIS AGREEMENT

CHAPTER 8

While C40’s 86 cities influence 20% of global carbon emissions, the world’s urban areas already account for more than 70% of global carbon emissions.

C40 is a leadership group of some of the world’s largest, most empowered and most ambitious cities. C40 cities are able to introduce innovative technologies, test financing mechanisms and pioneer more ambitious actions in a way that other smaller, fast growing cities cannot. These lessons and newly developed best practices can then be shared with the rest of the world’s cities. As pioneering leaders across the world, the C40 cities can amplify the impact of breakthroughs and successes within the C40 network.

Therefore in developing the vision for this work, we must also directly consider how the investment, innovation and lessons learned in delivering our vision for 2020 and beyond can benefit the global urban community.

So what would be the implications if all cities in the world followed Deadline 2020 goals? If all cities with a population greater than 100,000 joined C40’s Deadline 2020 there would be the potential to save 800 GtCO

2e (Figure 45) by 2050. By 2100, savings equivalent to 40% of the global reductions against BAU

required for a 1.5 degree scenario could be delivered in these cities.XVIII As Figure 45 shows, while all city sizes have growing impacts in the BAU scenario, the most significant city grouping is those cities with populations of over 1 million today. These cities likewise will make the greatest contribution to emissions reductions in a 1.5 degree target scenario. The time to take action is now, and all these cities can also act by 2020 to help create a climate-safe world.

Figure 45. Global city BAU emissions projections (left) and savings achievable when following C40 1.5 degree target trajectories (right) (including energy decarbonisation) *Cities includes urban settlements with populations above 100,000.

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The above graph and statistics were developed based on a high-level city pairing exercise carried out on a dataset of over 3,000 cities with populations in 2016 of over 100,000, and include the effects of future population and GDP growth. These cities were paired with the C40 cities that best matched their core characteristics, including geography, climate, GDP and population growth rates, where available. This exercise illustrates that out of 49 mapped C40 cities, two thirds of emissions, from over 2,000 cities, are linked to just ten C40 cities.

All but one of these top ten cities are from states in the global south. This shows both the importance of these regions in overall future global emissions mitigation, but also, crucially, the important leadership role for these nine cities. By setting an example through ambitious climate action, they have the potential to influence emissions reductions by orders of magnitude beyond their own, charting a path of climate-safe development that will influence the lives of millions.

XVIII Note, no negative emissions have been assumed for non-C40 cities, although these will likely be necessary to meet a 1.5 degree scenario.

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CONCLUSIONSCHAPTER 9

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1. C40ResearchpresentsthefirstsignificantpathwayforrelatingtheambitionoftheParisAgreementtoactionontheground. One that would allow C40 cities, representing 650 million people and 25% of the world’s GDP, to deliver their own emissions trajectories consistent with limiting global to 1.5 degrees.

2. To stay within 1.5 degrees, average per capita emissions across C40 cities would need to drop from over 5 tCO

2e per capita today to around 2.9 tCO

2e per capita by 2030. Doing so would keep cities on a trajectory

consistent with either 1.5 or 2 degrees of warming, it is only after 2030 that these trajectories diverge.

3. MayorscandeliverorinfluencejustoverhalfofthesavingsneededtoputC40citiesona1.5degreetrajectory,atotalof525GtCO

2eby2100. Either through their own direct action or through collaborating

with partners such as the private sector.

4.Deadline2020:Action in the next four years will determine if it is possible for cities to get on the trajectory required to meet the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. If sufficient action is not taken over this period, limiting temperature increases to below 1.5 degrees will be impossible. C40 cities collectively delivered nearly 11,000 climate actions between 2005 and 2016. In the four years to 2020, an additional 14,000 actions are required. This represents an additional 125% in less than half the time.

5. Wealthier, high carbon cities must deliver the largest savings between 2017-2020. As of 2017, cities with GDP over $15,000 per capita must begin to reduce their per capita emissions immediately. Of the 14,000 new actions that are required from 2016-2020, 71% should be taken by cities that need to immediately decrease per capita emissions.

6.As C40 cities age and grow they will need to invest in renewing and expanding infrastructure, and working to enhance the lot of their citizens. From 2016 to 2050, over $1 trillion of this investment is required across all C40 cities to meet the ambition of the Paris Agreement through new climate action. $375billionofthisinvestmentisneededoverthenextfouryearsalone to take the climate action required.

7. If action involving city governments can deliver just over half of the GHG savings needed, then action to deliver structural changes from outside cities (i.e. electrical grid decarbonisation), must start to have a significant impact from 2023 at the latest. This will become the dominant driver of urban GHG reductions after 2030.

8. Substantial carbon sequestration will be required by national governments if cities are to stay on a 1.5 degree trajectory post 2050.

9. IfallcitiesadoptedtheroadmapsetoutinthisreportforC40cities,itwoulddeliver40%oftheemissionreductionsrequiredtokeeptemperaturerisebelow1.5degrees: Action by C40 cities can have huge magnification. If all cities with a population greater than 100,000 adopted the ambition for C40 cities set out in this report, there would be the potential to save 863 GtCO

2 globally by 2050. By 2100, they could

have saved up to the equivalent of 40% of the reductions necessary for a 1.5 degree scenario.

In summary, the concluding findings of the Deadline 2020 project are as follows:

0 9 6 0 9 7

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGYA.1 Introduction 100

A.2BaseliningC40Cities 100

A.3C40Cities’CarbonBudget 101

A.4C40CitiesEmissionsTrajectories 103

A.52CAP 106

A.6KeyCommonDataInputs 109

A.7References 110

Deadline 2020 Team 113

0 9 90 9 8

AI INTRODUCTION

ThisappendixsummarisestheoverallmethodologyfortheDeadline 2020studyaccordingtofourstagesofanalysis:

1. CompilingthebaselineemissionsofC40cities(SectionA2)

2. EstablishingtheaggregateC40Carbonbudgets(SectionA3)

3. Derivingcitytargetemissionstrajectories(SectionA4)

4. CityActionpathwaymodelling(SectionA5)

5. KeycommondatacollectedforthisStudy(SectionA6)

Amorecompleteanddetailedreportonassumptions,calculationsandanalysiscanbefoundintheDeadline 2020MethodologyReport.

A2 BASELINING C40 CITIES

BaselineC40cityemissionsarethestartingpointfortheanalysiscarriedoutwithinDeadline 2020(thisStudy),providingabaselinefromwhichprojectionscanbemade.ForthepurposesofthisStudy,baselinegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandsectoralprofilesaredefinedastotalscopeIandIIemissionsofeachofthe84C40citiesXIXin2015andtheirproportionalsplitacrosskeysectorsrespectively.

ThesectorsofinterestwerealignedwiththoseusedintheGlobalProtocolforCommunity-ScaleGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventories(GPC)XXcategories,namely:

• StationaryEnergy

• Transportation

• Waste

• Industrialprocessandproductuse

• Agriculture,forestryandotherlanduse.

ScopeIIIemissionshavenotbeenincludedwithinthebaselinedatabecauseoftheriskofdoublecountingemissionsinthecitiesbeingconsidered.AlackofavailableScopeIIIdatawasalsoadriverforthisdecision,althoughthiscouldfeatureinfutureresearch.

ThetotalterritorialemissionsdatawereeithersourcedfromGPCorCarbonDisclosureProject(CDP)XXIinventories,prioritisingGPCdataduetohigheravailablesectoralresolutions.Thereportedyearofemissionsdatarangedfrom2009to2015,sowherenecessary,datawasnormalisedtotheyear2015usinganannualcityGDPXXIIgrowthrate(seeSectionA6.2onsources).

Forcitieslackingdataontotalemissionsand/orsectoralsplit,a“mapping”processwascarriedoutwherebythesecities(referredtoasSecondarycities)were“mapped”tothemostsimilarcitywithintheC40samplewithavailabledata(thesecitiesarereferredtoasPrimarycities).Thepairingofcitieswasmadeusinganumberofdemographic,climaticandsocioeconomicindicators.

Wenotethatdetailed,GPC-compliantemissionsinventoriesarecurrentlybeingcompiledforallC40cities.TheapproachdevelopedtogenerateemissionsdataforallC40citiesisaworkingsolutiontofacilitateunderstandingofthescaleofthechallenge,priortoobtainingfullGPC-compliantemissionsinventoriesfromallC40cities,whereuponitwillbeappropriatetorefreshthisanalysis.

A3 C40 CITIES’ CARBON BUDGET

ThepurposeoftheStudyistounderstandthelevelofCityActionneededtostaywithinaclimate-safetemperaturetarget.Toachievethis,theC40citiespermissiblecumulativeGHGemissionswerederived,establishingtheoverarching“C40carbonbudget”for84cities.

A3.I GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET

TwotargetmaximumtemperatureincreaseswereconsideredtoreflectthetargetandaspirationsetoutintheParisAgreement–2and1.5degreesCelsiusofwarmingbeyondpre-industriallevels.Followingareviewofpublishedglobalcarbonbudgets,thosefromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)28wereselectedforthisstudy.ThesecarbonbudgetsrepresentcumulativeGHGemissionsconsistentwitha66%probabilityoflimitingwarmingtobelow1.5and2degrees.

Thesefigureswereadjustedtotheperiod2016to2100bysubtractinghistoricGHGemissionsforbothCO

229andnon-CO

230sources.

A3.2 CARBON BUDGETING

Keystepstoallocatea“fair”proportionoftheglobalcarbonbudgetstoC40citiesfrom2016to2100were:

1. Understandingthecontextforallocationofbudgetstosub-globalentitiesandasnapshotofexistingapproachesdevelopedbythescientificcommunity,governmentalandnon-governmentalorganisations.

2. WeevaluatedthisinformationanddevelopedadecisionmatrixtoselectasuitableapproachforthisStudy.

3. Finally,wecalculatedtheC40carbonbudgetconsistentwithboth1.5and2degreesusingthepreferredapproachforallocation.

Whileindividualcitybudgetsareimplicitinmanyofthemethodologiesdescribed,akeyconcepttonoteisthatthebudgetsdiscussedrefertoasingle,overallbudgetfortheblocofC40cities;individualcitybudgetsaredescribedinSectionA4.

XIX Atthetimeofanalysis;C40membershiphassinceincreasedXX AcomprehensiveCity-levelcarbonaccountingmethodbasedontheGreenhouseGasProtocol(GHGProtocol)http://www.ghgprotocol.org/city-accounting/XXI Asecondarysourceofself-reportedcityemissionsdatausedwhenGPCdataisunavailablehttps://www.cdp.net/en-US/Pages/HomePage.aspxXXII CityGDPisusedthroughoutthisappendixtorefertothegrossdomesticproductofthecityasopposedtonationalGDP

I 0 0 I 0 I

A3.2.I CONTRACTION AND CONVERGENCE

Accordingtoanumberofauthoritativesources31,32,33,thefollowingprinciplesdominatedebateonfairallocationofcarbonbudgets:

1. Equality,basedonanunderstandingthathumanbeingsshouldhaveequalrights

2. Responsibilityforcontributingtoclimatechange,linkedtothe‘polluterpays’principle

3. Capacitytocontributetosolvingtheproblem(alsodescribedascapacitytopay).

Followingaliteraturereview,sevenapproacheswereidentifiedandtheirsuitabilitytestedaccordingtoanumberofcriteriaincludinghowwelltheyembeddedtheprincipleslistedaboveandtheirfeasibility.TheContraction&convergence(C&C)XXIIIapproach–developedbytheGlobalCommonsInstitute(GCI)–waschosen.

Bythisapproach,C40citiesmustconvergebyacertaindatetoequalemissionspercapitawiththerestoftheworld.Duringthe“adaptation”perioduptotheyearofconvergence,theC40cityemissionspercapitacanincrease/decreaselinearlyuptoordowntotheglobalaverage.

Theconvergencedatewassetat2030inresponsetoreflectionswithintheliteraturethataconvergenceyearmuchlaterwouldnotbenefitdevelopingcountriesbecausetheyarenotgivenadditionalallowancestogrowemissionspercapita(or,inotherwords,theyhaveunconstrainedeconomicdevelopment).34

A3.2.2 FINAL C40 BUDGETS

The2030convergenceemissionspercapitavaluechosenwas3.2tCO2epercapita,equaltohalfthe

currentglobalemissionspercapita(6.4tCO2e)35,aswellasconsistentwith2030globalemissionsper

capitaunderanambitiousbelow2degreepathway(asperIPCCAR5,430-480ppmrange35).

TheC40budgetsforscenariosconsistentwithbelow1.5degreesand2degreeswereestimatedat22GtCO

2eand57GtCO

2eto2100respectively.

Oneimportantdifferenceregardingthe1.5degreescenariowasthatitwasassumedthattheonlypossiblemeanstoachievethistargetwouldrequirenegativeemissions.36ThereisnospecificdateforwhenGHGemissionsturnnegative,butlateryearswillrequirefargreaternegativeemissionssubsequentlytokeeptotalemissionswithinbudget.ThisassumptionisconsistentwithresearchpublishedinNatureClimateChange.36,showingthatemissionsshouldhitzeroby~2050.XXIVNegativeemissionstechnologies(suchasbio-energycarboncaptureandstorage)arelikelytobeneededsuchthatemissionsof53GtCO

2eto2050

inthe1.5degreescenarioarereducedtothe22GtCO2ebudgetby2100,resultinginatotalof31GtCO

2e

removedfromtheatmosphereoverthistimeperiod.

A4 C40 CITIES EMISSIONS TRAJECTORIES

Twoemissionstrajectoriesweredevelopedforeachcity,abusinessasusual(BAU)trajectoryandatargetpercapitaemissionstrajectory.

A4.I DEVELOPING BAU TRAJECTORIES

Forthepurposesofthiswork,theBAUtrajectoryisdefinedastheemissionspathwayforascenarioinwhich“nofurtherclimateaction”istaken.

The“Kayaidentity”wasusedinordertodevelopcityspecificBAUtrajectories.ThisisthemethodologyadoptedbytheIPCCtodevelopbaselinepathways.37,38TheKayaidentitystatesthatageographicalentity’semissionsaredefinedbyitspopulation,economicoutput,energyefficiencyofeconomyandcarbonintensityofenergy.

Thefirstthreevariables:population,cityGDPpercapitaandenergyperunit,wereprojectedforwardsbasedonavailableforecastsfromsourcesincludingtheUNXXV,EconomistIntelligenceUnitXXVandIPCC38.

Akeyvariableintermsofframinga“nofurtherclimateaction”BAUscenarioistheassumptionthatenergyproductionwillnottransitionfrombeingdominatedbyfossilfuelsourcestolowcarbonalternatives.Assuch,thecarbonintensityofenergywastreatedasconstantbetween2016and2100.

ItisimportanttorecognisethatthisparticulardefinitionofaBAUcaseisjustoneofmanypotentialoptions.Otherscouldinclude,forexample,forwardprojectionsbasedonexistingclimatepoliciesatlocal,regionalandnationallevels.However,thedefinitionusedhereisuseful,asitdoesnotrelyoninterpretationofthelikelyeffectivenessofpolicy,andisabletobecalculatedhighlyconsistentlyacrossthemembershipofC40.Itisnotedhowever,thatthisrepresentsaworst-casescenario,asrecentinternationalpoliticalactivityindicatesitisunlikelythatglobalcarbonintensitieswillnotimprove.

A4.2 TARGET EMISSIONS TRAJECTORIES

Thetargettrajectoriesarecity-specificpercapitaemissionstrajectories,whichinaggregate,enableC40citiestomeettheoverallC40carbonbudgetconsistentwithagiventargettemperaturerisescenario,i.e.1.5or2degrees(seeSectionA3).TheyenabledivisionoftheC40carbonbudgetbetweencitiesaccordingtodevelopmentlevelsandcapacitytoact.

Togeneratetrajectories,C40citiesweregroupedintooneoffour“typologies”basedonbaselineemissionslevelsandcityGDPpercapita,asshowninTable5.ThesecriteriaservetoreflectthediscourseonhistoricresponsibilityforemissionsandfinancialcapacitydescribedinSectionA3.2whilstrespondingtothedemandsonemissionsreductionimposedbyeachcarbonbudget.

Inthisway,C40andAruptookintoconsiderationthecapacityofcitiesineachofthetrajectorygroupstoactandtheneedforappropriate“burdensharing”betweendevelopedanddevelopingnations.

XXV MoredetailsonsourcescanbefoundinSectionA6.XXIII GCI.(2005).CGIBriefing:“Contraction&Convergence”.CGI.XXIV NotethattheIPCCdidnotmodelemissionstrajectoriesconsistentwithacarbonbudgetwith66%probabilityoflimitingwarmingtobelow1.5degrees.

I 0 2 I 0 3

Thefunctionvariablesweredevelopedthroughaniterativeprocessthatconsideredthefollowingfactors:

1. Themaximumrateofemissionsdecrease:thiswasanimportantconsiderationbecausethefinaltrajectoriesneededtohaveaplausibleyear-on-yearreductionrate.Althoughitisveryhardtopredictwhatthisvaluemightbe,themaximumvalueusedtodevelopthesetrajectorieswasa20%annualreduction.

2. Growthrateuntilemissionsareexpectedtodrop:itwasfoundthatallowingpeakingcitiestoincreasetheiremissionsonapercapitabasiseithermeanttheyhadtopeakverysoonordecliningcitieshadtoreduceemissionsataveryfastrate.Thisresultedpartlybecausedevelopingcountriesstillhaveaveryfastpopulationgrowth,meaningthataflatpercapitaemissionsstillresultsinverylargeoverallemissionsgrowth.

3. Peakyear:similartothegrowthrate,decidingonapeakyearforeachcategorywasabalancebetweenallowingdevelopingcitiessufficienttimebeforereductionsarerequiredandnotassigningunrealisticreductionratestodevelopedcities.

Theresultingkeydifferentiatingfactorsbetweenthetypologiesareshowninthetablebelow.

Table 6. Peak years assigned for city typologies.

Trajectory Peak Year Trend up to peak year Rate of emissions decrease

Steadydecline 2016 n/a Steady

Steepdecline 2016 n/a Steep

EarlyPeak 2020 Linearincrease Steadypostpeakyear

LatePeak 2025 Linearincrease Steadypostpeakyear

Absoluteemissionstrajectorieswereobtainedforeachcitybymultiplyingtheannualemissionspercapitabyprojectedpopulationinthecorrespondingyear.

VariableswithinthemathematicalfunctionswerevarieduntiltheaggregateemissionsmatchedagiventargetcarbonbudgetwhilstmaintainingthecharacteristicsdefiningthetypologiesshowninTable6.

Ch.6 (original location)



Maturity

Time or Expenditure of effort

Tech

no

log

y p

rfo

rman

ce p

ara

mete

r o

rC

um

ula

tive a

do

pti

on

of

tech

no

log

y

GrowthEmbryonic Ageing

Eachofthefourtrajectoriesrelatestoan“S-curve”,commonlyusedtomodeltechnologyadoptionandmorerecentlyproposedasavalidmeansofmodellingemissionstrajectories39.Thisfunctiongovernstheoverallshapeofthetrajectory,andisscaledaccordingtothecities’baselineemissions.AnexampleS-curveisshownbelow(Figure46).

Figure 46. Example S-curve function.40

Table 5. Methodology for assigning city typologies. Cities with * based on data reported through CDP.

GHG/Capita GDP/capita Assigned typology Example cities

High

High Steep DeclineToronto Melbourne New York City

Low Late PeakCape Town Durban*

Low

High Steady DeclineStockholmSeoul*London

Low Late PeakQuitoCaracas*Amman

I 0 4 I 0 5

A5 2CAP

TheC40-ArupPartnershipClimateActionPathways(2CAP)modelisthetooldevelopedbyAruptoprojectanActionspathwayforeachC40citywhichmeetstherespectivecity’stargettrajectory(seeSectionA4).

Citybycity,themodelfunctionsbydispatchingActionsinanorderdictatedbythe2CAPlogicandtheseActionsresultinemissionsreductionagainsttheBAUtrajectoryofthecity.

Forthepurposesofthisstudy,thelistofActionswastakenfromtheC40ClimateActiondefinitions,totalling410Actions(notincludingAdaptation).ThroughtheClimateActioninMegacitiesstudies52,dataisavailableonthedeploymentofthoseActions,thereachoftheseacrossthecities(referredtoasscale,seeSection0)andabilitytoinitiateActions(referredtoasacity’spower,seeSectionA5.2).

A5.I MODEL LOGIC

Thefunctionalityofthemodelisbestsummarisedbythefollowinglogicalsequenceitadopts:

1. Programmesarerankedbyhighestscore.EachprogrammeisthesumofActionswhicharescoredbythreecriteria:carbonsavingpotential,citypowerleveloverActionandReplicabilityscores.ThesecriteriaareexplainedinmoredetailinSectionA5.2.ThemodeldispatchesActionswithintheprogrammesinaccordancewiththeirrank.

2. Withinprogrammes,ActionsweredispatchedaccordingtoarankingdrivenbyaVital/Non-vital(explainedinSectionA5.2.4)categorisationandscoredbasedonthecriteriastatedabove.ThemodelprioritisesprogrammeswithVitalActionswhosesumhasahigherscorethaneachNon-vitalActioninahigherrankedprogramme.

3. DispatchofActionsleadstoacalculationoftheemissionsreductionagainsttheBAUfromeachAction.TheseActionsarescaledtoa“city-wide”(seeSection0)scaleovertime.Therateofthisrolloutdeterminedtheemissionsreductionovertime.

4. Decarbonisationofenergy(electricityorheat)wasanoverlayonthemodelwhichenabledgreateremissionsreductionbyassumingeachC40nationwillmakeeffortstodecarboniseenergysupplyatanationallevel.ThisinterventionwasnotcapturedinActionsbecauseitoccursoutsidethecityboundary.

A5.2 PROGRAMME AND ACTION RANKING

ThissectiondescribestheinputsforSteps1and2above.

A5.2.I CARBON SAVING POTENTIAL

Thecarbonsavingpotential(orimpactscore)wasdefinedasthegreatestpotentialsaving(inpercentversusBAUemissions)fromanActiondeployedacrossthecity(e.g.aBuildingsSectorActionaffectingallresidentialbuildings).

FormostActions,valuesforcarbonsavingpotentialweresourcedfromanalysisusingtheWorldBank’sCURBmodellingtool.41AtthetimeofcarryingoutthisStudy,valueswereavailableforasinglecity,whichwasusedasagenericexample.Thisprocessholdsscopeforfuturedevelopmentasmorecity-specificCURBinventoriesbecomeavailable.Nevertheless,asemissionssavingsareconvertedtopercentagereductions,thismethodisstillrelevanttocitieswithdifferentabsoluteemissionsbreakdownsandmagnitudes.

SomeActions’emissionssavingpotentialwasnotavailablethroughtheCURBmodel.Inthesecases,percentagesavingsweredevelopedbasedonfirstprinciplesanalysisorthroughexternalsourcesXXVI.

A5.2.2 POWERS

TheC40PowersdatabasecontainsinformationoncityPowersforover70city‘Assets’and‘Functions’.Thereisamaximumpowerscoreof12andthisisbrokendownintofourmaincategories,eachwithascorefrom0-3,where3isthehighestlevelofpower:

1. Own/operate

2. Set/EnforcePoliciesandRegulation

3. ControlBudget

4. SetVision

Thosecitieswithoutpowersinformation,weremappedusingthemethoddevelopedforbaselineemissions(seeSectionA2).

A5.2.3 REPLICABILITY

AnAction’sReplicabilityisameasureofhowregularlyaparticularActionisreportedintheCAMdatabasewithinaparticularregion.IfanActionisbeingtakenbymultipleothercities,itisassumedthatknowledgecanbesharedamongstnetworkstoenablemorecitiestotakeanAction.ThislogicgivesactionsthatarebeingtakenfrequentlyahigherReplicabilityweightingscore.

A5.2.4 VITAL / NON-VITAL ACTION

ThecategorisationofActionsasVitalandNon-VitalwascarriedoutbyC40.ThislabellingreflectstherelativeimportanceofanActioninaparticularprogramme.VitalActionsmustbetakenforaprogrammetobedelivered,whereasnon-vitalActionsarenotmandatory.

XXVI Duetothenumberofreferences,thesearenotincludedhere.ForafulllistseethefullMethodologicalReport.

I 0 6 I 0 7

A5.3 EMISSIONS REDUCTION CALCULATION

TocalculatetheemissionsreductionofanAction,itsemissionssavingpotentialwasmultipliedbythecorrespondingBAUemissionsofthesectorinthatyear.WefoundthattheActions’reductionwaseitherdependentorindependentofotheractions.Assuch,twobroadcategoriesofActionsweredefined:

1. Product Actions: TheseareActionswheretheabsoluteemissionsreductionpotentialisaffectedbytheintroductionofanotherAction.Emissionsreductionfromtheseactionsaremultipliedbyeachothertodeterminetheoverallemissionssaving.WithinProductActions,wehaveidentifiedtwotypesofactionthatcategorisehowtheemissionsreductionisachieved.DirectemissionsreductionActionsdescribethosewheretheexactemissionsreductioncanbequantifiedfromtheActionbeingtaken.EnablingActionsarethosewheretheexactemissionsreductionishardertoquantifybutitisverylikelythatthroughtheintroductionoftheseActionsemissionsarereduced,albeitindirectly.

2. Sum Actions: TheemissionsreductionpotentialofaSumactioniscompletelyindependentoftheimpactsofotherActions.ThetotalemissionsreductionpotentialofacitytakingseveralSumActionsisthesumofthem.TwoexamplesofSumActionsare‘RooftopFarming’and‘Treeplanting/afforestation’.

As2CAPdispatchesanAction,theemissionssavingpotentialisstaggeredoverafeasibleroll-outperiodtofulldeploymentacrossthecity.Theroll-outtimewasbasedonanassessmentofthebare-minimumyearstakentobringanActionfrom“Pilot&planning”stagethroughtoimplementationacrosspartsofthecity(referredtoas“Significant”)tothewholecity(referredtoas“City-wide”).Ateachofthesescales,aproportionoftheemissionssavingpotentialwasappliedtoreflectthescaleofreductionachieved.

A5.4 EXTERNAL DRIVERS OF EMISSIONS REDUCTION

AsindicatedinSectionA5.1,decarbonisationofenergysupplywasincorporatedasanadditionaldriverontopofthecityActions.Thisnational-leveldecarbonisationwasnecessarytomeetthecitytargettrajectories.

Griddecarbonisationwasincorporatedusingtwotrajectories:

1. Theelectrificationofcities:eachcity’selectricity-dependentemissionsweremodelledasincreasingovertimeusinganS-curve(seeSectionA4.2onS-curves)startingfromthenationalbaselinelevelofelectrificationinsectors.ThisdatawassourcedfromtheIEA42.

2. Griddecarbonisationrate:nationalutilityelectricitygriddecarbonisationratesforeachcityweremodelledovertimeusingadecreasingS-curve(seeSectionA4.2onS-curves).

A6 KEY COMMON DATA INPUTS

ExistingandfuturepopulationandcityGDPdatawerekeyinputsfortheanalysisinthisStudy.Assuch,thesourcesandanymanipulationofdataisdescribedbelow.

A6.I POPULATION

Amulti-sourceapproachwasadoptedtoobtainbothcurrentandfuturecitypopulationsduetonosinglesourcecoveringallcities.Populationdatawascollectedtoalignwiththeemissionsreportingboundariesofcities.Ingeneral,thiscoincidedwithadministrativeboundaries.Inanumberofcities,areasofmayoraljurisdictionareconsiderablysmallerthantheareastraditionallythoughtofwhenoneconsidersacityboundary.

Keydatasourceswereself-reportedcityGPCandCDPdata,andUN43andregionalgovernmentstatistics.44,45,46

Populationwasprojecteduntil2100usingacombinationofUNcityspecificannualgrowthrates47andnationalannualgrowthrates48.

A6.2 CITY GDP

The2015baselinecityGDPswerederivedfromthefollowingtwosourcesinorderofpreference:

• TheBrookingsInstitutiondata49–thisdataprovidedcityGDPforthemetropolitanurbanareain2014for70cities.Thesewereadjustedtotheyear2015usingannualcityGDPgrowthrates.

• TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU)50nationalGDP–thesewereconvertedintonationalpercapitafiguresusingtheUNnationalpopulationestimatesandthenmultipliedbycitypopulationtogiveacityGDP.

TheGDPsofcitieswereprojectedusingannualcityGDPpercapitaderivedfromtheEIUforeachyearupto2050.AverageannualcityGDPgrowthfrom2050to2100wasbasedonaforecastfornationalGDPgrowthbytheOECD51.

I 0 8 I 0 9

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29 C.LeQuere.(2015)GlobalCarbonBudget2015.EarthSystemScienceData.439-396.

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52 www.cam3.c40.org

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17 https://issuu.com/c40cities/docs/powering_climate_action_full_report

18 IEA.(2016)Keyworldenergystatistics.Paris,IEA.

19 http://www.chinabuses.org/news/2016/0725/article_9559.html

20 https://www.autolib.eu/en/

21 https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/buildings_roadmap.pdf

22 ArupanalysisofIEAdata

23 Arupanalysisoffiguresfromhttp://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Generation-by-Energy-Source

24 https://www.iea.org/topics/electricity/

25 http://www.go100percent.org/cms/

26 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Negative-Emissions-Technologies---Grantham-BP-8.pdf

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