AMY: (WHERE ARE WE GOING AND HOWWILL WE KNOW WHEN WE ARE THERE?)

Rick Lawford

AMY IS:

1)AN EXCITING OPPORTUNITY FOR BRINGING TOGETHER ALL OF THE EXPERTISE IN SE ASIA FOR ADDRESSING AN ISSUE WITH MAJOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS.

2) A CHALLENGE THAT REQUIRES A GREAT SENSE OF SCIENTIFIC AND GLOBAL COMMUNITY TO BE SUCCESSFUL GIVEN THE VERY SHORT LEAD TIME THAT AMY HAS GIVEN ITSELF.

WHAT IS AMY?

AMY IS A FEDERATION OF PROJECTS THAT SEEKS TOADVANCE THE SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING OF THEAA MONSOON.

TO BE AN EFFECTIVE FEDERATION IT MUST ENSURE:1. THE COMPONENTS ALL BENEFIT FROM BEING IN THE FEDERATION.2. THE COMPONENTS ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ISSUE THAT IS GREATER THAN ANY OF THEM COULD ADDRESS INDIVIDUALLY.3. THE COMPONENTS EFFECTIVELY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER (E.G. INTEROPERABILITY IN “GEOSPEAK”)

ISSUES:IS AMY JUST A COLLECTION OF OBSERVATIONS,REANALYSIS AND MODEL SIMULATIONS LOOKING FORSOME SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS?

HOW COMMITTED ARE THE NATIONAL PROJECTS TOBECOMING MAJOR PLAYERS IN A REGIONALTRANSBOUNDARY EXPERIMENT THAT WILL INVOLVECHANGES IN DATA POLICIES?

IS THERE REALLY ENOUGH TIME TO FINISH PLANNINGAND GAIN APPROVALS SO WE CAN START AMY IN THESPRING OF 2008? WHAT WILL BE DONE TO HELP COUNTRIES AND GROUPSWHO MAY NOT HAVE RESOURCES TO DELIVER ONCRITICAL OBSERVATIONS/ SUPPORT?

MEASURES OF STATUS OF THE AMY ACTIVITYUSE THE “BALIDEX”

FIVE STAR *****

ONE STAR *

WHAT COULD AMY BE AND HOW WELL DOES IT RATE ON THE “BALIDEX”?RATIONALE 1:AMY IS A FEDERATION OF PROJECTS IN THE AA REGION DESIGNED TO GIVEVISIBILITY AND SUPPORT TO THESE PROJECTS (I.E. MUTUAL BENEFIT).

****-AMAZING NUMBER OF PROJECTS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TOGETHER AND ARE DISCUSSING JOINT ACTIVITIES.- SCALE OF TOTAL ACTIVITIES SO LARGE IT CANNOT BE IGNORED BY INTL PROGRAMS.- CONTRIBUTIONS TO SOCIETAL BENEFITS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED.

RATIONALE #2:AMY MAY BE A WAY OF GETTING FUNDS FOR MORE MONSOON RESEARCH

**- THE DOCUMENT DOES NOT FULLY SELL AN EXCITINGPROJECT IN A WAY THAT EMPHASIZES THE VALUEADDED FROM THE FEDERATION OR JOINT PROJECT.-THERE IS A TIME MISMATCH BETWEEN THE NAME“ASIAN MONSOON YEAR” AND SOME OF THE GOALSTHAT RELATE TO INTERANNUAL OR DECADAL VARIABILITY(IT MAY CONFUSE SOME PEOPLE – MAP THE SCIENCEQUESTIONS TO WHAT CAN BE DONE IN THE TIME OFTHE PROJECT.)-THE PROJECT NEEDS SOME DELIVERABLES TO SHOW WHAT WILL BE PRODUCED.- POTENTIAL TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPACITY BUILDING SHOULD BE DEVELOPED.

RATIONALE #3:AMY IS A WAY OF COORDINATING MANY ACTIVITIESTHAT ARE TAKING PLACE SIMULTANEOUSLY.

***- AMY HAS BROUGHT TOGETHER CRITICAL PROJECTS ONTHE AA MONSOON. ECONOMIES OF SCALE CAN BEACHIEVED BY SHARING DATA AND INFRASTRUCTURE.-SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE ALREADY EXISTS IN THE AREA TO PROVIDE DATA COORDINATION (E.G. CEOP) AND COULD BE STENGTHENED AS THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY OF DATA COORDINATION.-WHAT BENEFITS WILL AMY DATA MANAGEMENT PROVIDE TO THOSE PROJECTS THAT SUBMIT DATA?- HOW WILL THE DATA MANAGEMENT POLICY BE ENFORCED?- IS THERE A DATA STRUCTURE TO INTEGRATE FIELD DATA WITH SPECIAL FEATURES?

RATIONALE #4:AMY IS A FEDERATION OF PROJECTS DESIGNED TOIMPROVE MONSOON PREDICTION AND ADDRESSCRITICAL SCIENCE QUESTIONS.

*** -THE CASE FOR SAYING THAT ANSWERING THESE SCIENCE QUESTIONS WILL IMPROVE THE PREDICTION OF THE AA MONSOON HAS NOT BEEN MADE AS CONVINCINGLY AS IT COULD.-THE PATH FROM OBSERVATIONS IN AMY TO SCIENTIFIC FINDINGS TO IMPROVEMENTS IN MODELS TO DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS COULD BE CLEARER.-THE POTENTIAL OF THE AMY POOL OF EXPERTISE TO PROVIDE INSIGHTS ON THE ROLE OF THE AA MONSOON TO THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN FULLY TAPED IN THIS PLAN.

PROPOSED WAY FORWARD:

1. REVIEW THE SCIENCE PLAN AND AGREE ON A FEW PRIOIRTY SCIENCE QUESTIONS THAT ARE >>> THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL PROJECTS.2. BASED ON THESE PRIORITIES DEVELOP A PLAN FOR IMPLEMENTING THE OBSERVATIONAL, ANALYSIS AND MODELING ACTIVITIES FOR ADDRESSING EACH OF THESE SCIENCE QUESTIONS.3. ESTABLISH AN AD HOC CORE GROUP WITH BROAD REGIONAL REPRESENTATION THAT MOVES THE PLANNING FORWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 MONTHS.4. MAP OUT A PLAN TO SHOW HOW THE RESEARCH WILL BE USED IN IMPROVING PREDICTIONS AND IN TURN THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE FOR IMPROVED RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING.