contributions of drought studies to the global earth observations system of systems (geoss) sept....
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![Page 1: Contributions of Drought Studies to the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS) Sept. 27, 2010 Rick Lawford UNESCO, Paris](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56649d5e5503460f94a3db73/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Contributions of Drought Studies to the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS)
Sept. 27, 2010Rick Lawford
UNESCO, Paris
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© GEO Secretariat
• GEO is an Intergovernmental Group
– 80 Nations
– European Commission
– 58 Participating Organizations
• With a Single Objective: GEOSS
– To establish a global, coordinated, comprehensive and sustained system of Earth observation systems
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Science
Observations
Technology
Operational Systems
GEOSS Networking-Task sheets- CoPs-Workshops- Prototypes
User ServicesFor SocietalBenefit Areas
Specific Gaps Addressed by GEO:-Information inventories- data democracy- interoperability- governance
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Science
Observations
Technology
Operational Systems
GEOSS Networking-Task sheets- CoPs-Workshops
User ServicesFor SocietalBenefit Areas
Specific Gaps Addressed by GEO:-Information inventories- data democracy- interoperability- governance
![Page 5: Contributions of Drought Studies to the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS) Sept. 27, 2010 Rick Lawford UNESCO, Paris](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56649d5e5503460f94a3db73/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Task WA-06-02 addresses the use of these data for assessments and
early warning
Task WA-06-07 disseminates data products and decisions
support systems to the world
Task WA-08-01 stimulates the development
of new WC data products
Interactions between the 2009-2011 GEO Water Tasks
Feedback
Feedback
DA—09-02A
Droughts, Floods and Water Resource Management
Address decision-making challenges related to the management of hydro-meteorological extremes and the sustainable use of water.
Water Cycle Target: By 2015, produce comprehensive sets of data, and information products and services to support decision-making for efficient management of the world's water resources, based on coordinated, sustained observations of the water cycle on multiple scales.
Work on drought draws upon the integrative products of WA-08-01 and contributesto the dissemination and capacity building tasks of WA-06-07.
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Impacts from Drought
GEO Task WA-06-02b Co- Leads: Canada, USA and WCRP
Tracking and analyzing impacts from drought (including feedbacks such as soil drying) will provide a tangible and practical demonstration of the value of integrated water cycle observations by developing a full and operational data cycle of environmental information from “producer-to-consumer” / “source to sink,” and exploring the application of data products in the Water and Agriculture societal benefit areas.
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Drought Impacts are tracked nationally and regionally because:
• They establish an impacts baseline for monitoring – Climate change, policy change effects, landscape modification, etc
• They direct relief in effective ways through national governments• They allow directed preparotory actions to be undertaken to reduce
vulnerability in advance of the next drought• They are a basis for “ground truthing” indices• They provide a basis for quantifying drought losses• They provide information for estimating environmental consequences
of drought.
• (Could they provide the same benefits if tracked globally?)
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Lessons learned about impact studies and drought monitoring
1) Both impacts and monitoringaspects of drought must be looked atsimultaneously to understand the scopeof drought.
2) In order to provide more comprehensive drought monitoring a broad categorization is needed.
3) To meet the needs of governments special overlays are often needed (portray information by constituency).
4) Drought reporting creates opportunities for “citizen science”.
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Drought in Europe: The Portuguese Condition
GEO-DRI Drought Monitoring WorkshopMay 10-11, 2010, Winnipeg, Manitoba (Canada)
Organic C in european soils (0-30 cm), in relation with soil erosion (Source: European Commission, 2004. Reports of the Technical Working Groups, II)
Water erosion in EU
115 million ha
(12% total area)
Wind erosion in EU
42 million ha
(4% total area)
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DRI 2008Calgary
Wheat Quality: Statistically Significant Drought Index Correlations by Category
AC Barrie SuperbWater Supply Indices 0 3Water Demand Indices 19 24Water Balance Indices 14 18Water Use Indices 7 7
Evapotranspiration provides a more accurate estimate of wheat yield and quality than precipitation and should be utilized for assessment of agricultural drought.
(from Paul Bullock)
Drought studies indicate that we need to consider a wider range of basic water cycle variables within GEO.
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By 2007, water-level dropped to 30 meter mark due to intensive water consumption, the sea practically split into three parts and the volume of water decreased by 10 times.
1987 y. 2005 y. 2009 y.
Uzbekistan is the main water resources consumer in Central Asian region
Surface water use
Even at present time there is significant deficiency of water resources in the region, and the most important problem is Aral Sea crisis.
Techniques needed to monitor hydrological drought especially wherethe conditions are affected by both management practices and climate.
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Towards a Hydrologic Drought Monitor• Employed the threshold technique to characterise hydrologic
drought– Based upon work by Yevjevich (1967)
• Threshold level employed was the 10th percentile of monthly stream flow
Variables:
•Qz= threshold level
•ti= start of drought
•di= drought duration
•vi= deficit volume of drought (severity)
•vi/di= average deficit flow (intensity)
Figure modified from Flieg et al (2006)
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ResultsActual and Apportionment Streamflow Drought Occurrence at Provincial Boundaries
a)
b)
c)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
j)
k)
l)
d)
Jan
/19
99
Ma
r/19
99
Ma
y/19
99
Jul/1
99
9S
ep
/19
99
No
v/19
99
De
c/19
99
Ma
r/20
00
Ma
y/20
00
Jul/2
00
0A
ug
/20
00
Oct/2
00
0D
ec/2
00
0M
ar/2
00
1M
ay/2
00
1Ju
l/20
01
Au
g/2
00
1O
ct/20
01
De
c/20
01
Ma
r/20
02
Ma
y/20
02
Jun
/20
02
Au
g/2
00
2O
ct/20
02
De
c/20
02
Ma
r/20
03
Ap
r/20
03
Jun
/20
03
Au
g/2
00
3O
ct/20
03
De
c/20
03
Fe
b/2
00
4A
pr/2
00
4Ju
n/2
00
4A
ug
/20
04
Oct/2
00
4D
ec/2
00
4
Year
Gau
gin
g S
tati
on
AB
-SK
Bo
rder S
K-M
B B
ord
er
Apportionment Actual
Gauging Stations: a) North Saskatchewan at Border, b) Red Deer at Bindloss, c) South Saskatchewan below Red Deer, d) South Saskatchewan at Medicine Hat, e) Battle Creek at Border, f) Lodge Creek at Border, g) Middle Creek at Border, h) Churchill River at the Border, i) Saskatchewan at The Pas, j) Red Deer near Erwood, k) Assiniboine at Kamsack and l) Pipestone Creek.
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DRI has provided a prototype for GEOSS of ways in whichresults from research projects with finite duration can be integrated into GEOSS
DRI data legacy system is bringing data sets together to produce ananalysis systems that would allow users to identify the characteristics of the drought over the region during the 1999-2005 time period.
(Courtesy ofPhil Harder)
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Pioneering User InteractionsPartner Assessments of DRI Research Products
J uly 2002: E vapotranspiration C onditions(from B rimelow and Hanes iak)
User workshops and Table Top Drought Preparedness simulations have been held with uses groups. In these workshops based on historicalevents users were asked:1. What did you respond to the drought and what information did you use?2. What could you do with the information that what is currently available?3. How would your decisions potentially change if you had access to information on new experimental products (e.g. Evapotranspiration)?
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Some typical Mitigation and Response Actions
Non-structural approaches• Water availability and water supply report • Crop insurance, DFA (disaster financial assistance)• Water Conservation• Education and awareness
DroughtA number of states and provinces have formal drought response plans and strategies in place while others resist the concept. Plans commonly include:
Structural approaches• Reservoir construction and operation• Dugouts, hauling water, GW wells• Regional water supply systems
Is this range of responses sufficient for a changing climate?
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START OF THEGROWING
SEASON6-month9-month12- month PRODUCERS:
- Crop Selection
- Fertilizer/pesticide decisions
- Cropping and Insurance Strategies
AGRI-BUSINESS
3-month
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
GOVERNMENT CROPINSURANCE
LEAD TIME IN MONTHS
Perspectives on the forecast lead times for a forecasts ofthe coming growing season. (Expectations far exceed ourcurrent capabilities.)
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Prototype Regional Drought Early Warning Test Beds GEO Task WA-06-02d Co- Leads: USA, WMO, and CanadaChad McNutt, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Brewer
Explore expanding the concepts of the North American Drought Monitor and the drought portal through prototyping drought early warning test bed activities in specific international river basins, such as on the US-Canada border, basins in Central America and the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, and other drought-sensitive regions.
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Pathways to a Global Drought Monitoring Product
The mosaic approach
Guidance is needed on thenature of drought impactsin all parts of the worldand whether a small set of global indicators can actuallyprovide the diversity neededto fully represent drought
The single productcoverage
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Drought Monitoring Activities Globally
Regional Drought Monitors
National Drought Monitoring
Drought Monitoring Centers (Government/University)
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NIDIS ObjectivesNIDIS Objectives
Creating a drought early warning Creating a drought early warning informationinformation systemsystem
o CoordinatingCoordinating national drought national drought monitoring and forecasting systems monitoring and forecasting systems
o Providing an Providing an interactive drought interactive drought information clearinghouseinformation clearinghouse and and delivery system for products and servicesdelivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and —including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
o Designing mechanisms for Designing mechanisms for improving improving and incorporatingand incorporating information to information to support coordinated preparedness and support coordinated preparedness and planningplanning
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From Pilots to a National DEWS
Southeast
Colorado River Basin
California Prototyping
approaches/methods
Regional DEWS:Chesapeake Bay; Great Plains; Tennessee Valley; Montana; Columbia River Basin etc.
National DEWS Transferability
Discussions are on-going with NIDIS about establishing testbeds outside the USA in developing countries.
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EuroGEOSS search semantic augmentation
www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP
EuroGEOSS Query Expansion (C. Fugazza)
AIP3: Work on Drought Ontologies is being carried out to introduceInteroperability between drought information systems
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FutureForecasting for Droughts and FloodsImpacts from DroughtPrototype Regional Drought Early warning Test Beds
Mountain Water Resources (C) +Vulnerability of Mtn Regions (EC-09-02)
WA-06-02: Droughts, Floods and Water Resource Management
GFAS/GFFS/GFMP/GDMS/GDEWS
NIDISWMODRIJRC
CL-09-01?
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SUMMARY
GEO has generated a substantial amount of interest in monitoring and responding to extreme events, especially drought. Droughtinterests are found in the Water SBA and the Agriculture SBA.In some cases the GEO discussions would be more effective ifthey were underpinned by a better understanding of the physicalprocesses governing the extreme events and of the strengths andlimitations of the tools used to monitor the phenomena. In the next work plan (2012-2015) efforts will be made to streamline the tasks dealing with droughts.