ws talk anthropocene_project
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Will Steffen
The Anthropocene:Where on Earth are We
Going?
Photos: Tas van Ommen, Australian Antarctic Division
Human Development andEarth System Dynamics
Evolution of fully modern humans in Africa
Hunter-gatherer societies only
Beginning of
agriculture
Adapted from Steffen et al. 2004; ice core data from Petit et al. 1999
Aborigines arrive inAustralia
Beginningof
agriculture
Great Asian,European, African,
Americancivilisations
Human Development andEarth System Dynamics
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
First migration of fully modern humans
out of Africa
Migrations from South
Asia to Europe
Holocene
Fires, Floods and Cyclones: A window into the future in the Anthropocene?
Human Imprint on Marine Ecosystems
Globally 74-78% of allfish stocks are fullyexploited, over-exploited,depleted or are recoveringfrom depletion
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005,Steffen et al. 2004
Atlantic cod fishery
Human Imprint on the Terrestrial Biosphere
From landscapes togenes…
Global Change and the Anthropocene
Steffen et al. 2004
Anthropocene graphs
!!!!
Vertical axis is ahuman activity or animpact on the EarthSystem. All variablesshown in a linearscale.
From Steffen et al. 2004
The Human Enterprise
• Population• Economic Growth• Freshwater use• Resource consumption-
fertilizer, paper• Urbanization• Globalization• Transport• Communication
Note ”The Great Acceleration” from 1950 to
2000
From: Steffen et al. 2004
The Global Impact
• Greenhouse gases• Ozone depletion• Climate• Marine ecosystems• Coastal zone• Nitrogen cycle• Tropical forests• Land systems• Biodiversity
National Geographic, March 2011
I = P x A x TVisualising the Great Acceleration
I - impact
P - population
A - affluence
T - technology
Holdren and Ehrlich 1974; National Geographic 2012
Source: Moran et al., Ecological Economics, 64, 470-474, 2008
The dilemma of the Anthropocene
Human well-being
Glo
bal I
mpa
ct
The 21st Century:A bright future of continued growth? Or…
…saililng towards a global collapse?
Lessons from the Past
The Greenland Norse
Year AD
Jette Arneborg
Lower Rhone Valley1000 BC - 1000 AD
The Roman Empire:Resilience and Constraints
Roman SettlementPatterns
Sander van der Leeuw
Reorganization from large villages to dispersed hamlets
Re-aggregation
Regional depopulation
Michelle Hegmon
North American Societies:Resilience, Transformation
and Collapse
Dennis Holloway
Possible Explanations for the Collapse of Early Civilisations
• Tainter - increasing complexity & decreasing resilience
• Friedman - waves of ’globalisation’ to an upper limit of system compatibility
• Diamond - inflexibility of core societal values
“…if we focus on other features of the past than humanity’s progress, we might find a human history marked by crises, regime shifts, disasters, and constantly changing patterns of adjustment to limits and confines. Indeed, this now emerges as a new historical meta-narrative, linking humanity’s creative past with its destructive consequences and nature-culture interplay…”Sverker Sörlin & Paul Warde 2007
On the techno-scientific approach to progress
The Anthropocene in the 21st century:The 2000-2010 Decade
• China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and others
are beginning their Great Acceleration.
• The world is reaching hyper-connectivity - the global financial crisis
• We are reaching several “peaks” – oil, phosphorus, health?
• Humans have constructed an artificial chromosome and
inserted it into DNA; towards synthesis of life itself
Steffen et al. 2011
Biodiversity in the 21st century
• Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history.
• 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Exti
ncti
on
Rate
Distant Recent Future Past Past
Peak Oil
Sorrell et al. 2009
Oil and food price trends, 1999 - 2011
World Bank Commodity Price Data
FAO Food Price Index
Analysis of the Global Food Crisis:A Systems Perspective
Biggs et al. 2010
Global-scale linkage of processes producing shocksthat emerge simultaneously, spread rapidly and interact.
The ingredients for a cascading crisis?
• Powerful global scale drivers (oil price spike)• Propagation of shocks through increased global connectivity• Knock-on effects of management responses elsewhere
The Anthropocene
A Systems Perspective
Sources: Petit et al. 1999; Scheffer 2009
The Earth as a Complex SystemGlacial state Interglacial (warm) state
Sources: Petit et al. 1999; Scheffer 2009
The Earth as a Complex System
Limit Cycles
CO2
Temperature
CH4
Northern hemisphere surface temperature
Mann et al. 2003 (EOS)
Post-industrial temperature rise
Temperature rise: Beyond the envelope of natural variability?
Implications of accelerating climate changeIPCC temperature projections
IPCC 2007
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glo
bal
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
IPCC Projections2100 AD
N.H
. Te
mpera
ture
(°
C)
0
0.5
1
-0.51000 1400 1800 2000
Now
Earth System moves to a new state? Severe challenge tocontemporary civilisation. Possible collapse?
IGBP PAGES200 60
0
Return towards aHolocene-like state?
Tipping Point?
Transition to a new, muchhotter state of the
Earth System?
Implications of the Anthropocene
Planetary Boundaries
Rockström et al. 2009
Climate Change
Ocean acidification
Ozone depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversit
y Loss
Biogeochemistry: Global N & P
Cycles Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Land System Change
Chemical Pollution Planetary
Boundaries
Rockström et al. 2009
Defining the safe operating space
Rockström et al. 2009
constant rate 3.2 mm/year
Evolution and the Anthropocene
Source: Katherine Richardson, Copenhagen University
Darwin’s insights about the origin ofhumans - that we are apes, a part of nature (not above it) - challenged deeply held beliefs about the human-environment relationship.
Will the Anthropocene evoke a similar level of deep emotion in the public? Can humanity really affect the functioning of its ownlife support system at the planetary scale? What are theimplications of this for our definition of “progress”, our way of life and our future?
Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees.
Revelation 7:3, the Holy Bible
Perspectives on the Human-
Environment Relationship
Most Gracious is Allah, Who reveals HimselfIn the Qur'an, in man's IntelligenceAnd in the nature around man.Balance and Justice, Goodness and Care,Are the Laws of His Worlds....
Summary from Surah 55, the Holy Qur'an
Without the willow, how to know the beauty of the wind.
Lao She, Buddhist monk
We're only here for a short amount of time to do what we've been put here to do, which is to look after the country. We're only a tool in the cycle of things. …(we) go out into the world and help keep the balance of nature. It's a big cycle of living with the land, and then eventually going back to it....
Vilma Webb, Noongar People, Australian Aborigines, from: 'Elders: Wisdom from Australia's Indigenous Leaders’
© S
ebas
tião
Sal
gado
…where on Earth are we going?
The Anthropocene…
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