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WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2020
and
Global Electricity InvestmentChallenges
World Energy Outlook SeriesWorld Energy Outlook SeriesWorld Energy Outlook 1998
World Energy Outlook 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right
World Energy Outlook 2000
World Energy Outlook 2001 Insights: AssessingToday’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
World Energy Outlook 2002 (2nd edition issued)
World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook
WEO 2002: Key StrategicWEO 2002: Key StrategicChallengesChallenges
security of energy supplies
investment in energy infrastructure
threat of environmental damage caused byenergy use
uneven access of the world’s population tomodern energy.
Global TrendsGlobal Trends
World Electricity Consumption World Electricity Consumption vsvs. GDP. GDP1971-2000 1971-2000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
GDP (billion $(1995) using PPPs)
Elec
tricit
y con
sum
ptio
n (T
Wh)
1971
2001
World electricity demand is set to increase rapidly
Electricity Demand 2000 to 2030:
OECD: 1.5%Transition Economies: 2.0%Developing Countries: 4.1%
WORLD: 2.4%
World Power-GenerationWorld Power-GenerationCapacity Additions, 2000-2030Capacity Additions, 2000-2030
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
GW
Gas Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil Nuclear Fuel cells
More than 40% of new capacity worldwide is gas-fired
World Installed Power-World Installed Power-Generation CapacityGeneration Capacity
Nearly 5,000 GW of capacity is built in 2000-2030, almost half in developing countries
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
GW
Existing capacity New capacity
World Power-GenerationWorld Power-GenerationInvestment, 2000-2030Investment, 2000-2030
Cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants amounts to $ 4.2 trillion, more than half in developing countries
AfricaE. AsiaChinaPacificEuropeNorth America
Middle East
Transition economies
South Asia
Latin America
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$ bi
llion
(200
0 do
llars
)
World Power Generation CapacityWorld Power Generation CapacityInvestments 2000-2030Investments 2000-2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro OtherRenewables
Fuel Cells
$bill
ion
(200
0 do
llars
)
OECDOECD
Ordered Power-GenerationCapacity Additions to 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
US and Canada Japan EU15
GW
Coal Oil Gas Other
EU Capacity Additions and Investment
EU investment needs will increase over time in both GW and $ terms
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000/2010 2010/2020 2020/2030
GW
Investment ($ billion)
Installed Capacity in EU-15Installed Capacity in EU-15
Capacity additions over the next 30 years will be largerthan today's installed capacity
901 GWInstalled Capacity - 2030
584 GW 290 GW 618 GWInstalled Capacity
2000Retirements 2000-2030
New Capacity2000 - 2030
====
Age of Installed CapacityAge of Installed Capacityin EU-15in EU-15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
GW
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
< 10 years 10 - 20 years 20 - 30 years > 30 years
Europe's power plants are ageing: half currentcapacity - mostly coal-fired - could be retired by 2030
Share of Renewables inShare of Renewables inElectricity GenerationElectricity Generation
The role of non-hydro renewables is much greater in all OECD regions, especially Europe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2030Alternative
2000 2030Alternative
2000 2030Alternative
per c
ent
Non-hydro Hydro
US & Canada Europe Japan, Australia& New Zealand
Capacity in EUCapacity in EU7 Major Utilities (2002)7 Major Utilities (2002)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
EdF
E.ON
RWE
ENEL
Vatten
fall
Endesa
Electra
bel
GW
Rest of EuropeHome Country
Capacity in EU15Capacity in EU15 7 Major Utilities (2002) 7 Major Utilities (2002)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
EdF
E.ON
RWE
ENEL
Vatten
fall
Endesa
Electra
bel
GW
Rest of EU
Sweden
Italy
UK
Germany
Home Country
Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries
Investment Investment vsvs.Saving Balance.Saving Balanceby Regionby Region
Foreign capital flow needs to meet the gap between domesticfinancial resources and investment in most of non-OECD regions.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OECD TransitionEconomies
India Brazil Africa
% (R
atio
to G
DP)
Gross domestic savings Gross capital investment
Size and Activity of FinancialSize and Activity of FinancialMarkets by RegionMarkets by Region
Financial markets in non-OECD regions aresmaller, less active,and less efficient.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OECD Russia India Indonesia Brazil Africa
% (R
atio
to G
DP)
Liquid liabilities (size of banking sector)Stock market capitalization (size of stock market)Stock market value traded (activity of stock market)
Investment Flows into Energy ProjectsInvestment Flows into Energy Projectswith Foreign Private Participationwith Foreign Private Participation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2001
US$
Bill
ion
Electricity Natural gas transmission and distribution
Sound macroeconomic management and legal/regulatory framework are needed to secure the availability of
foreign capital to energy projects.
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
SummarySummary
World electricity demand is set to growrapidly
Gas is likely to be the preferred fuel
Ageing: a key issue in OECD countries
Developing Countries: higher demandgrowth - scarce resources
Surrounding IssuesSurrounding Issues
What are obstacles to investment?
Is investment climate changing?
What are the (new) risks introduced byliberalisation of electricity markets?
How do challenges vary across energymix / technology?
How will the capital markets beconvinced to invest in DevelopingCountries?
What role for governments?
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