wired comp ov 5-14-08
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Overview of Composite MaterialTrends in Aviation Manufacturing
John TomblinTel: 316-978-5234
Email:john.tomblin@wichita.edu
National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR)National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR)
WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
The aviation industry is a major contributor to the
economic vitality of Kansas and has the potential forsignificant growth as a national center for aerospaceinnovation.
Hawker BeechcraftHawker Beechcraft SpiritSpirit
CessnaCessna BombardierBombardier
BoeingBoeing
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Kansas Products
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
1.3 1.3
2.3 2.2
3.5
5.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Direct Payroll
in Billions $$
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Aviation Economic Impact in Kansas
36,500 direct jobs with a payroll of approx. $2.4 billion36,500 direct jobs with a payroll of approx. $2.4 billion
Each aviation job generates an additional 2.9 jobsEach aviation job generates an additional 2.9 jobs
Kansas delivers more than 50% of all U.S. general aviation aircrKansas delivers more than 50% of all U.S. general aviation aircraftaft(1,263 aircraft valued at $3.7 Billion in 2002)(1,263 aircraft valued at $3.7 Billion in 2002)
Total Economic ImpactTotal Economic Impact
Historical Projected
Kansas Aerospace Industry Forecast, for Kansas, Inc. May 2006
2016 State tax revenues2016 State tax revenuesforecast:forecast:
16% of total state payroll16% of total state payroll
$1.3B in state tax revenue$1.3B in state tax revenue
Wages expected to skyrocket inWages expected to skyrocket in10 years10 years$5.5 Billion/Year$5.5 Billion/Year
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Composite Material Definition Macroscopic combination of two or more distinct
materials having a recognizable interface between
them
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Fiber Reinforced
Composite Types
(polymer matrix based)
Aerospace CompositesAerospace Composites
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
A Long History in Military & SpaceApplications
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Barriers to Expanded Application
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Boeing 787 Composite UsageNearly all of the exterior surfaces are composites, except the leading edges of thewings, the stabilizers, and the engine pylons
Carbon laminateCarbon sandwich
Fiberglass
Aluminum
Aluminum/steel/t it anium
Composites
50%
Titanium
15%
Other
5%Steel
10%
Aluminum
20%
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Boeing's Plastic Dream MachineExcerpts from BusinessWeek, JUNE 20, 2005 and Boeing News Releases
Boeing thinks its new 787 jet, built mostly of plastic composites, could remoldthe airline industry.
Jets made of composites require far fewer parts, so there's less to bolttogether.
since these plastics weigh less than aluminum, the planes should burn lessfuel. together with improved engines, 20% drop in fuel costs.
improve passenger comfort. The superior strength of the compositefuselage will allow the passenger cabin to withstand higher pressurization --equal to the air pressure at an altitude of 6,000 feet instead of the usual 8,000feet.
it's easier to control cabin temperature, humidity, and ventilation.
engineers are discovering that their composites are even tougher than theyinitially imagined. maintenance costs will be 30% lower than for aluminumplanes. corrosion and fatigue benefits are going to be astounding.
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Raytheons Premier I All Composite Fuselage
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Cirrus Design Corporation, Duluth, MN
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Adam Aircraft
Cirrus Lancair Starship
Citation X
Premier I
Scaled Composites
Bell Helicopter
Boeing 777 Boeing 737
Dreamliner
Boeing 747
Toyota Aircraft
The Institutes Composite Family
SpaceshipOne
Javelin
Horizon
Global Hawk
X45 UCAS
Boeing 767
Predator
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Informational Brief
www.AeroStrategy.com
AeroStrategy is a consulting firm devoted to aviation andaerospace sectors with offices in Ann Arbor and
Amersham, U.K.
A white paper highlighting trends in the aerospace supplychain can be downloaded athttp://www.aerostrategy.com/commentary.cgi
To learn more about AeroStrategy please contact:
Kevin Michaels, Principal
Ph: (734) 821-0220
kmichaels@aerostrategy.com
Hal Chrisman, Principal
Ph: (734) 821-0227
hchrisman@aerostrategy.com
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Aerospace Comprises Approximately 15% Of The $50BGlobal Composites Industry
Sources: JEC composites, European composite directory and report 2002 2003; aerospace figures from AeroStrategy
Aerospace excludes launch vehicles and satellites
Values are for end-use products
The global composites industry, notoriously
difficult to estimate, is worth $50B in 2004according to JEC composites
The automotive industry is the largestsegment and is worth in excess of $12B
Building and construction is a fast-growingsegment and is now worth $10B annually
Aerospace is the third largest segmentanda major consumer of carbon fiber given itsfocus on performance
Wind power is emerging as a significantmarket and is now worth nearly $1B
2004 Global Composites Market ($50 B)
Automotive23%
Building &Construction
21%
Aerospace
15%
Sports
11%
Wind Power
2%
Other
28%Appliances
Consumer
Electrical
Medical
Marine
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
The Use Of Composites In Modern Aircraft Designs Is
Accelerating
Sources: Teal Group, Boeing, Airbus,Composite Market Reports
Military aircraft designswere early adopters of
compositesPerformance oriented
Less cost sensitive
Unique requirements (e.g.radar signature suppression)
The latest commercialdesigns, led by the B787,A380, and A350 XWB,feature significantlygreater composite content
Airbus recentlyannounced that it hasadded a hybridcomposite/metal fuselageto the A350XWB design
Ai rcraft Composi te Content For Select Air frames% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A340
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/D
A310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB(latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350(mid 2006)
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
And Will Underpin A Quadrupling Of The Aerospace CompositesMarket Over The Next 20 Years
Source: AeroStrategyNotes: excludes UAVs, figures in 2006 dollars
Aerospace Composite Market Forecast ($B)2006 - 2026
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2011 2016 2026
MRO Services (all markets)
Business Aviation Production
Military Aircraft Production
Air Transport Production
Next generation narrow bodydesigns expected to be major catalysts
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Why The Shift?
Air craf t Com pos ite Co nten t For Select Air frames% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A3 40
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/D
A310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB(latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350(mid 2006)
Air craf t Com pos ite Co nten t For Select Air frames% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A3 40
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/D
A310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB(latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350(mid 2006)
Air craf t Com pos ite Co nten t For Select Air frames% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A3 40
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/D
A310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB(latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350(mid 2006)
Fuel & Emission
Reduction
Falling Production
Cost
Push To Reduce
Maintenance Cost
Improved Knowledge
Base (I.e. Better Design)
Emergence Of Sophist icated
Supply-Base (E.g. Spiri t, GKN)
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Aircraft And Engine OEMs Are Increasingly Focused OnSystem Integration
Source: AeroStrategy analysis
Aircraft Product ion Supply Chain
Ai rcraf t AndEngine
OEM FinalAssembly
Aircraf t AndEngine
OEM FinalAssembly
Aircraft /Engine OEM
InternalProduction
Aircraft /Engine OEM
InternalProduction
Tier 1 SuppliersTier 1 Suppliers
Tier 2 Suppliers
Tier 3 Suppliers
Tier 2 Suppliers
Tier 3 Suppliers
Raw Material
Suppliers
Raw Material
Suppliers
More focused on systems integration
Less internal product ion capability
Desire to work wi th a smaller number of Tier 1 primes
Significantly reduce direct dealings with Tier 2 and Tier 3suppliers
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Tier 1 Suppliers Have Significant Growth Opportunities
Source: AeroStrategy analysis
Aircraft Product ion Supply Chain
Aircraft AndEngine OEM
FinalAssembly
Aircraft AndEngine OEM
FinalAssembly
Aircraft / EngineOEM Internal
Production
Aircraft / EngineOEM Internal
Production
Tier 1Suppliers
Tier 1Suppliers
Tier 2 SuppliersTier 3 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 Suppliers
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Taking on more integration and supply chain management activi ties formerlyperformed by OEMs
Leveraging aircraft OEM aerostructures outsourcing available market growingfaster than overall market growth
Entering more risk sharing partnerships
Facing consolidation (e.g. Spirit BAE Aerostructures, GKN Teleflex AerospaceManufacturing Group)
Struggling with surging demand, rising raw material costs, and shi fting material
content
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Tier 2 And 3 Suppliers Face Significant Challenges
Source: AeroStrategy analysis
Aircraft Production Supply Chain
Aircraft AndEngine OEM
Final
Assembly
Aircraft AndEngine OEM
Final
Assembly
Aircraft / EngineOEM InternalProduction
Aircraft / EngineOEM InternalProduction
Tier 1 SuppliersTier 1 SuppliersTier 2 & Tier 3
SuppliersTier 2 & Tier 3
Suppliers
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Shifting distribut ion channels: less direct dealings with OEMs; more withTier 1 suppliers
Vigorous competition from low labor cost suppliers
Struggling with surging demand and rising raw material costs
May face consol idated demand as Tier 1s consolidate
In the long run, must address shifting material content
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
North America
Wichita Tulsa
Salt Lake City
South Carolina
Asia Pacif ic
Japan
Wichita Is One Of Several AerospaceComposite Clusters
Europe
Spain
Italy
U.K.
ansseC
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NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
The Shift To Composites Highlights Several Key Issues
For Wichita To what extent will other
aircraft OEMs includingbusiness aviation followBoeings lead?
What are the implications ofthe shift to composites forsuppliers focused on metallicwork?
Are there enabling
technologies or processes thatcan improve thecompetitiveness of metalstructure suppliers?
How significant is theopportunity in compositeMRO services?
What is required to strengthenthe competitiveness ofWichitas aerostructures/composites cluster?
Porters Sources of Locational Competitive Advantage
Source: Michael Porter, AeroStrategy analysis
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