winning with analytics - timothy prescott · title slide analytics everywhere how the obama...

Title SLIDE

ANALYTICS EVERYWHEREHow the Obama campaign used data scienceto win support and rally voters.

by Timothy Prescott

Source: Pete Souza, Chief White House Photographer

“I’m working harder than ever before but falling 

further and further behind”

Source: istockphoto, licensed

No President re‐elected since FDR with unemployment over 7.2%

Source: tradingeconomics.com, bureau of labor statistics

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

mei‐11 jul‐11 sep‐11 nov‐11 jan‐12 mrt‐12 mei‐12 jul‐12 sep‐12 nov‐12

7.2%

U.S. unemployment rate

We won nine out of ten “swing states”

Source: the New York Times

1   ‐ Expand the electorate

2   ‐ Persuade the electorate

3   ‐ Get out the vote (GOTV)

Strategy for victory

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation

Likely strong supporter but not registered to vote

REGISTER

Likely strong Romney supporter

SKIP

Likely voter but likely undecided 

PERSUADE

Very unlikely to voteSKIP

Likely supporter but sporadic voter

GOTV

Welcome to Columbus, Ohio

Source: Google streetview

Pred

icted Likelihoo

d to Vote

Predicted Likelihood to Support Obama

0% 100%

= Registered Voter

Scientifically understanding voters

Voters, by support and vote likelihood

PERSUADE

ACTIVATE

GET OUT THE VOTE

50%

48%

52%

54%

46%

JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT

PAUL RYANANNOUNCED

SCANDAL47%

POLLSGALLUP

FIRST DEBATE

Scientifically understanding voters

Source: graphics: bloomberg business week; data: obama for america, gallup.

Polling, over time

50%

48%

52%

54%

46%

JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT

ANALYTICSOBAMA CAMPAIGN

PAUL RYANANNOUNCED

SCANDAL47%

FIRST DEBATE

Scientifically understanding voters

Source: graphics: bloomberg business week; data: obama for america, gallup.

Polling, over time

50%

48%

52%

54%

46%

JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT

POLLSGALLUP

ANALYTICSOBAMA CAMPAIGN

PAUL RYANANNOUNCED

SCANDAL47%

FIRST DEBATE

ENDRESULT

Scientifically understanding voters

Source: graphics: bloomberg business week; data: obama for america, gallup.

Polling, over time

Scientifically understanding voters

Source: graphics: obama for america;; data: obama for america.

Win Probability, October 2012

Data science isn’t really about data, nor science…

Assumptions? Rarely left in place without numbers to back them up...

You are either getting supporters to the polls, persuading voters, or raising money to finance the first two. 

If your data is not actionable it’s not data science, it’s just theory, fun facts. 

The story of fired up, ready to go

Are you fired up, ready to go?

Source: Google streetview