webcongress panama 2014 - war is over - what's next after the smartphone wars?

WEBCONGRESS PANAMA edfernandez @efernandez

What´s Next after The Smartphones War ?

Really?

Not so fast…

8 Billion still to go?

You just said

the smartphone

war was over

Diffusion of innovations: Everett Rogers. 1962

World is here

US is there

Smartphone Penetration

Source: KPCB internet trends 2014 report. Morgan Stanley Internet report 2009.

ap·par·el /əˈperəl/

Noun US formal

1. Clothing. synonyms:

clothes, clothing, garments, dress, attire,

wear, garb, getup

wear·a·ble /werəb(ə)l/

Noun US formal

1. An item that can be worn.

OMsignal: bio-sensing apparel Heart Rate, Breathing, Steps

We, humans, become the

interface

Rise of the Natural

User Interfaces (NUI)

Things get “smartified”

All of Them Smart contact lens for diabetics Blood sugar reading in tears 1/sec

Mind Reading Facial expressions:

Blink Left wink

Right wink Furrow (frown)

Raise brow (surprise) Smile

Clench teeth (grimace) Glance left

Glance right Laugh

Smirk (left side) Smirk (right side)

Mental commands: Neutral Any of up to 4 pretrained items from a list of 13 labels:

Push Pull Lift Drop Left Right Rotate clockwise Rotate anticlockwise Rotate forwards Rotate backwards Rotate left Rotate right Disappear

Emotional States: Instantaneous excitement

Long term excitement Frustration

Engagement Meditation

Interest/ Affinity

What’s making this possible?

1. Technology Evolution Laws

2. Tech economy driven by Asymmetric Business models

Computing capacity Moore’s Law Computing power doubles every 18-24 months. Costs cut by a half. Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Doubles every 2 years - wired Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law) Digital storage capacity Kryder’s Law Doubles every 2 years.

Technology Evolution Laws

2yrs 2x /

Asymmetric Business Models Android OS is free to foster Google’s mobile services/ads Apple invests in iTunes & developer ecosystem to foster HW sales We sign up for web services/apps for free in exchange for personal data If you’re not paying for it, you are the product

‘Truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away

New definitions of ‘success’-

money may not be

Access to luxury vs owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy & EaaS

(Everything as a Service)

Self-realization and self-actualization happens now also online

(Win)^3:

You help me, I help you, we help others

Klout score in your resume from now onwards

Global thinking, global objectives -

collective intelligence arising (Singularity)

People

Entrepreneur generation • Reduced sense of security since terrorist attacks 2001 • Destabilized economy Financial crisis since 2008 • High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations • Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or

live out of the system • Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere • Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg,

Larry, Sergey • All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself

(kickstarter, onevest) • No loss aversion fostering self driven entrepreneurship

edfernandez @efernandez

www.about.me/ed.world

gratefully KPCB: MaryMeeker, 2014 Internetreport VisionMobile: MobileMegatrendsreport Fjord: AnnualTrendsReport2014 JWT: 100ThingsToWatch2014 Horace Dediu Asymco

REFERENCES