water sustainability in nw costa rica: the challenge of ... · yamileth astorga, rafael celis, et...

Water sustainability in NW Costa Rica: the challenge of balancing the needs of

natural and human systems under climate change

Carolina Murcia, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Matteo Convertino, Andrea Albertin, Mahmood Sasa, Miguel A. Campo-Bescos, Greg A. Kiker, Jane Southworth, Wendy Graham, Peter Fredrick, Mark Brown, Peter Waylen, Julio Calvo, Yamileth Astorga, Rafael Celis, et al.

ATBC meeting, 26 Jun 2013

Structure of talk

1. Describe the general issues of water use and sustainability in the Tempisque –Bebedero watershed

2. Describe the firs steps in setting up a large interdisciplinary program to address these issues

3. Present a semantic analysis to elicit a mental model of stakeholders – how are stakeholders approaching the issues?

Project location

19th - mid 20th centuries

Arenal lake

1979

• 87.8 Km2 ( 33 Sq miles),

• 60 m deep (200 feet)

• 2,416 x109 m3 capacity, output 30-65 m3/sec •500 yrs useful life

• 12% of country’s electric power

Tempisque-Bebedero watersheds

28,000 ha

Rice crops, 10,000 Ha, 50% ag land

Sugar cane, 8,000 Ha, 40% ag land

Cattail

Other changes

• Urban & suburban settlements

• Tourism

Large-scale tilapia farming

Increased demand •More channels •Deep wells

Wel

ls a

nd

irri

gati

on

can

als

WATER BALANCE: water deficit at least 5 months of the year

Climate predictions

By end of this century

• Temperature

+ 2.6 - +3.6 Degrees

• Precipitation

- 5% - -16%

Long-term Goals

• understand the causes and consequences of current water availability and use in NW Costa Rica

• forecast how water allocations will change as climate and land use change

• Propose adaptive governance measures that may be taken to ensure regional sustainability (conservation of PV wetland)

Interdisciplinary team

U Florida

• Biological and Agricultural Engineering,

• Water Institute

• Climate Institute

• Geography

• Wildlife

• Center for Wetlands

• Law School

Organization for Tropical Studies

• Ecology

Rice University • Anthropology Rutgers University • Climatology Universidad de Costa Rica • Resource management-

community involvement • Biology Instituto Tecnologico de Costa Rica • Hidrology MARVIVA • Marine fisheries

Institutional context

• COSTA RICAN GOVERNMENT

– Environmental Agencies: MINAET, ACAT,

– Protected areas: National Parks (SINAC), PNPV,

– Institutions with jurisdiction over water: ICE, SENARA

– Other relevant institutions: IMN

Bringing together scientists and stakeholders

• April 2012 – 30 scientists,

– 15 stakeholders

• Formulated relevant research questions based on their appraisal of: – Research needs for management

– Issues they most critically need to understand in order to make management recommendations

• 17 topics, 86 questions.

how are stakeholders approaching the issues?

Class Time frame 1 Historic trends

2 Current status

3 Expected behavior

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1 2 3

P (

Tim

e f

ram

e)

Time frame class

Acad NGO

III. Semantic analyses

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Thematic areas

Acad NGO

Topic # Topic

1 Climate behavior

2 Impacts of climate on vegetation

3 Impacts of natural ecosystems on climate/production

4 Natural ecosystems behavior

5 Impacts of human activities on natural systems

6 Water system behavior

7 Impacts on water system behavior

8 Use/decision process

9 Governance

10 Nat System sustainability

11 Water Sustainability

12 Water use

13 Stakeholders

14 Institutions

15 Governance structure

16 Incentive mechanisms

17 Law and policy

Semantic network of all the workshop’s questions ``clustering and mapping’’ model

Semantic network of all the workshop’s questions ``clustering and mapping’’ model

Current actions and next steps

• Consolidating all available information and identifying knowledge gaps

• Identifying the theoretical conceptual frameworks (for research grant proposals)

• Nurturing collaboration with implementing CR institutions

• Align the metal models of stakeholders so that there is consensus on what are the most relevant components.