vote fraud, vote suppression

Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

PS 450

Election fraud

• What treats are there to the integrity of US elections?– Trying to “steel elections”– Illegal cheating

– Who?– How?

Public Perceptions

• How common Voter Fraud Vote TheftVery 26% 23%Occasionally 36% 37%Infrequently 20% 21%Almost Never 8% 8%

2007 CCES

Public Perceptions

• How common voter fraud (vote more than once or if not citizen) Dem RepVery 15% 35%Occasionally 36% 37%Infrequently 23% 21%Almost Never 13% 8%

2007 CCES

Public Perceptions

• How common vote theft (votes stolen or tampered with) Dem RepVery 23% 20%Occasionally 38% 36%Infrequently 19% 25%Almost Never 9% 11%

2007 CCES

Public Perceptions

• How common vote impersonation (claiming to be someone else) Dem RepVery Often 6% 11%Often 25% 42%Rarely30% 23%Very Rare 21% 5%

2008

Which are a ‘threat’?

• Partisan Secretaries of State• Forged petition signatures (initiatives)• False voter registrations• Buying votes, bribing• Ineligible people casting votes• Intimidation of voters• Rigged voting equipment

Forged petitions

• Paid signature collection to qualify ballot initiatives

• Some evidence of fraud (MT, DC)– Very little (if any) in WA

• For-pay system has safeguards• Who more likely to cheat, paid workers or

volunteers?

Forged petitions

• Creates demand for restrictions on petitioning• Is motive to kill initiatives?– Ban paying per-signature– ‘Scarlett Letter’ laws– Require petitioners register w/ state agency– Petitioners wear photo-ID– Petitioners swear affidavit on sig sheet• All sigs invalid if not signed?

Partisan Secretaries of State

• Scheduling initiative votes• Ruling on petitions• Overseeing recounts• Purging voter rolls• Challenging eligibility of voters• Locating polling places, staffing

Partisan Secretaries of State

• Examples• Katherine Harris, FL, 2000– Purging FL voter rolls

• Ken Blackwell, OH 2004– Refusing to count provisional ballots, restrict

distribution of ballots• Missouri, Matt Blunt 2004– Anti-gay initiative

Secretaries of State

• Proposal – Have office listed as non-partisan

– Public campaign funds for the office

False Voter Registration

• Made famous by ACORN• Workers paid per-registration– Does this create incentives to “register” Mickey

Mouse, Homer Simpson?

• What evidence that falsely registered people cast votes?

False Voter Registration

• Creates GOP demand for voter ID at polls– Photo ID• What % of voters lack photo ID

– Utility bill• Huge partisan split in perceptions• DOJ challenging some ID laws in states

covered by Voting Rights Act

Ineligible people voting

• Falsely registered

– Ex-felons– Non-citizen immigrants– People voting in multiple jurisdictions– Voting other person’s mail-in ballots

Ineligible people voting

• GW Bush DOJ study found no systematic voter fraud (study killed)

Partisan Split, Photo ID

Texas, 2011 House Vote Senate Vote

Republicans Yes 101 19Democrats Yes 0 0

Republicans No 0 0Democrats No 48 11

Floor vote on SJR 14

Partisan Split, Photo ID

Montana, 2011House Vote Senate Vote

Republicans Yes 65 27Democrats Yes 0 0

Republicans No 2 1Democrats No 32 22

Floor vote on HB 152

Partisan Split, Photo IDMaine, 2011

House Vote Senate VoteRepublicans Yes 74 18Democrats Yes 0 0Others Yes 0 0

Republicans No 0 2Democrats No 69 14Others No 1 1

Floor vote on LD 1376

Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana

Drivers Lic DL or ID cardWhite 81% 86%

Black 55% 73%

Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana

White Black

Photo ID Laws

Income LT $40K $40k-$80K Over $80K

Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana

18-34 35-54 55-69 70+

Photo ID laws

Republican Democrat Ind.

Photo ID laws

• Uneven effects

• Modern Day poll tax?

Voter Intimidation

• At polling place• Anecdotes

– Orange Co, CA • Scare off Latino voters

– New Orleans 2002• Spread false info about voting dates

Vote Buying

• Paying people to vote for a candidate

• Isolated examples in small southern communities– DOJ prosecutes, convicts

• Difficult to orchestrate in election with large # of voters

Rigged Voting Equipment

• Vote Theft• Diebold conspiracy– OH 2004• Exit poll results vs. phone surveys vs.. reported vote

• Can electronic systems be hacked

• Ballots w/o “paper trail”

Rigged Equipment

• Difficulties– Decentralized administration (OH)

– Rigorous audits

Fraud, or suppression

• Instances of systematic fraud affecting elections rare, if not existent

• Anecdotes used by partisans to shape composition of the electorate in their favor