vermont labor market information: nursing mathew barewicz vermont department of labor economic &...

Vermont Labor Market

Information:Nursing

Mathew Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor

Economic & Labor Market Information Chief

Presentation OutlinePART I•Discussion about Occupational Coding and Upcoming Changes

PART II•Historical Trends•Taking a Look Forward

•‘Real-Time’ Indicators

Part I: Occupational

Coding

Occupational Coding and the U.S. Bureau of

Labor Statistics- The BLS uses a ‘job’ coding system called the Standard

Occupation Classification Manual --- or SOC manual

- The SOC manual is used predominately in the BLS’ Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program

SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)

-The OES Program collects/codes occupational data producing estimates of:

1. Prevalence (or count) of a particular occupation in a region

- Region defined as nation, state, metropolitan areas and other sub-state regions like ‘northern balance of state’

2. Wage data by occupation

- Mean, median, ‘entry-level’, ‘experienced’, etc.

3. Staffing pattern information or occupational distribution by industry

- Very interesting data; but less material to this discussion

SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)- In Vermont, VDOL LMI publishes estimates on over

500+ occupations

- 45 occupations within the occupational family “Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations” (29-xxxx)

- 12 occupations within the occupational family “Healthcare Support Occupations” (31-xxxx)

- Two samples of Vermont employers (or ‘panels’) are conducted each year

- Aside from all other limitations related to BLS confidentiality standards, it takes six panels of data to produce OES estimates

- Therefore, it takes 3 years before any changes made to the SOC manual are reflected in published OES data

SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)- The 2000 SOC manual (and earlier) did not have

significant detail on APRNs

- Updates* related to nursing in the 2010 SOC manual:

2000 SOC 2010 SOC

29-1141 Registered Nurses29-1111 Registered Nurses 29-1150 Nurse Anesthetists

29-1160 Nurse Midwives29-1170 Nurse Practitioners

29-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses No Change

31-1012 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, 31-1014 Nursing Assistants) & Attendants 31-1015 Orderlies

* will be reflected in the May 2013 OES estimates

SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)

- VDOL LMI has collected 3 panels (50% of necessary 6 panels) worth of data using the new 2010 SOC code

- Estimated employment of 2,800

- Here is a preliminary breakdown of the new Registered Nurse occupational code and the three breakout codes:

Occupational Title Percent of Total- Registered Nurses 95.7% - Nurse Anesthetists 1.0%- Nurse Midwives 0.4%- Nurse Practitioner 2.8%

Part II: Historical &

Future Trending &

Current Indicators

VT Employment Trend: Nursing

-Above average growth rates in all three major nursing occupations- CNAs = 2.7%; LPNs = 1.3%; CNAs = 1.9% - versus 0.2% all covered employment between 1999 and 2010

2008-2018 Long Term Occupational Projections

2008 2018

Total, All Occupations 366,236 398,373 0.8% 3,551 8,128 11,679

HEALTHCARE PRACTITIONERS AND TECHNICAL OCCUPATIONS 0 0 054 Registered Nurses 5,686 6,842 1.9% 116 99 21573 Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 1,547 1,834 1.7% 29 48 77

HEALTHCARE SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS 0 0 0.0% 0 0 066 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, & Attendants 2,893 3,452 1.8% 56 29 85

due to

Growth

due to

Net Replace

ment Total

Rank (based

on annual growth rate) Job Title

Employment

Annual Growth

Rate (compound

avg)

Annual Job Openings

Online Job Postings Aggregate New England Data ~ Feb 2010 – Oct 2011

Online Job Postings: Nursing

Conclusions: Nursing- SOC changes will produce more data on nursing

- Nursing occupations have experienced stronger than average growth over the last decade

- Current long term projections expect that to continue

- However, online job posting data does indicate a slow down in demand for healthcare occupations and specifically nursing over the last 18 months

-Please note: Analysis on ‘real-time’ data has been problematic and should be consulted in the context of other data sources

Questions?

Thank you

Contact Information:Mathew J. BarewiczVermont Department of Labor5 Green Mountain Dr.Montpelier, VT 05601-0488Phone- (802)-828-4153Mathew.Barewicz@state.vt.usWebsite: www.vtlmi.info