u.s. manufacturing job gains and imports, 2001-2011: an analysis

An AnalysisAaron S. Robertson

Manufacturing jobs tend to be good-paying, sustainable jobs

That said, is the level of imports coming into the U.S. dependent on the number of manufacturing job gains?

After all, with an increase in these jobs, and hence, more disposable income readily available, money spent on imported goods and services would theoretically increase, as well

Because we’re exporting more goods as a result of these manufacturing job gains, in theory, the favor is reciprocated by governments and foreign corporations friendly to the U.S.

In short, because we’re exporting more, we’re also importing more, through trade agreements, talks, etc.

H0: There is not a correlation between manufacturing job gains and imports between 2001-2011

H1: There is a correlation between manufacturing job gains and imports, 2001-2011

Year Mfg. Job Gains (in thousands)

Imports (goods and services, in millions of dollars)

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

25032427223723832270212720021759154517881770

13694961398311151450317685021996065221311123512892541020195809923372222663247

count: 11 mean: 2,073.73 sample variance: 103,038.62 sample standard deviation: 321.00 minimum: 1545 maximum: 2503 range: 958 population variance: 93,671.47 population standard deviation: 306.06

count: 11 mean: 2,010,078.64 sample variance: 206,465,557,829.06 sample standard deviation: 454,384.81 minimum: 1369496 maximum: 2663247 range: 1293751population variance: 187,695,961,662.78 population standard deviation: 433,238.92

Regression Analysis

r² 0.563 n 11 r -0.750 k 1

Std. Error 316543.938 Dep. Var. Imports (total, in millions of dollars)

ANOVA tableSource SS df MS F p-value

Regression 1,162,854,994,374.2000 1 1,162,854,994,374.2000 11.61 .0078

Residual 901,800,583,916.3470 9 100,200,064,879.5940

Total 2,064,655,578,290.5500 10      

Regression output confidence intervalvariables coefficients std. error t (df=9) p-value 95% lower 95% upper

Intercept 4,213,078.1824 653,679.4302 6.445 .0001 2,734,352.5803 5,691,803.7845

Manufacturing Job Gains (in

thousands) -1,062.3381 311.8416 -3.407 .0078 -1,767.7727 -356.9035

The p-value is extremely low at .0078, so we reject H0

Accept H1

There is a correlation between manufacturing job gains and imports between 2001-2011

However, there appears to be a fairly strong negative correlation, with r= -0.750

U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/bdm/