u.s. manufacturing job gains and imports, 2001-2011: an analysis
DESCRIPTION
Examines the correlation between U.S. manufacturing job gains and total imports from 2001-2011.TRANSCRIPT
An AnalysisAaron S. Robertson
Manufacturing jobs tend to be good-paying, sustainable jobs
That said, is the level of imports coming into the U.S. dependent on the number of manufacturing job gains?
After all, with an increase in these jobs, and hence, more disposable income readily available, money spent on imported goods and services would theoretically increase, as well
Because we’re exporting more goods as a result of these manufacturing job gains, in theory, the favor is reciprocated by governments and foreign corporations friendly to the U.S.
In short, because we’re exporting more, we’re also importing more, through trade agreements, talks, etc.
H0: There is not a correlation between manufacturing job gains and imports between 2001-2011
H1: There is a correlation between manufacturing job gains and imports, 2001-2011
Year Mfg. Job Gains (in thousands)
Imports (goods and services, in millions of dollars)
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
25032427223723832270212720021759154517881770
13694961398311151450317685021996065221311123512892541020195809923372222663247
count: 11 mean: 2,073.73 sample variance: 103,038.62 sample standard deviation: 321.00 minimum: 1545 maximum: 2503 range: 958 population variance: 93,671.47 population standard deviation: 306.06
count: 11 mean: 2,010,078.64 sample variance: 206,465,557,829.06 sample standard deviation: 454,384.81 minimum: 1369496 maximum: 2663247 range: 1293751population variance: 187,695,961,662.78 population standard deviation: 433,238.92
Regression Analysis
r² 0.563 n 11 r -0.750 k 1
Std. Error 316543.938 Dep. Var. Imports (total, in millions of dollars)
ANOVA tableSource SS df MS F p-value
Regression 1,162,854,994,374.2000 1 1,162,854,994,374.2000 11.61 .0078
Residual 901,800,583,916.3470 9 100,200,064,879.5940
Total 2,064,655,578,290.5500 10
Regression output confidence intervalvariables coefficients std. error t (df=9) p-value 95% lower 95% upper
Intercept 4,213,078.1824 653,679.4302 6.445 .0001 2,734,352.5803 5,691,803.7845
Manufacturing Job Gains (in
thousands) -1,062.3381 311.8416 -3.407 .0078 -1,767.7727 -356.9035
The p-value is extremely low at .0078, so we reject H0
Accept H1
There is a correlation between manufacturing job gains and imports between 2001-2011
However, there appears to be a fairly strong negative correlation, with r= -0.750
U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/bdm/