u.s. housing outlook presented by: stanley f. duobinis, ph.d. president crystal ball economics, inc
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U.S. Housing Outlook
Presented By:
Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D.President
Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.
Real GDP
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Percent Change
U.S. Unemployment Rate
3
4
5
6
7
8
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Percent
Total Payroll Employment
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Percent Change
Payroll Employment
-12-10-8-6-4-202468
10
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Percent Change
Total
Manufacturing
U.S. Manufacturing Employment
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Millions
3.0 Million jobs lost
2.6 Million jobs lost
U.S. Industrial Output
14
15
16
17
18
19
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140Index: 1996 = 100
Employment (L)
Output (R)
Millions of Jobs
Manufacturing Output vs. Employment
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Employment Output
Percent Change – Annual Rate
Manufacturing’s Share of Employment
Percent
17.1 to 22.0 (10)13.4 to 17.0 (14)7.4 to 13.3 (17)0.6 to 7.3 (10)
Total Employment GrowthNovember 2003 to November 2004
Percent Change
2.0 to 4.8 (12)1.2 to 1.9 (15)0.7 to 1.1 (14)-0.9 to 0.6 (10)
Total Employment Growth
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Pct Chg. Year Ago
Consumer Confidence Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1985 = 100
Stock Market Tumbles
September 11th
The War in Iraq
Consumer Confidence Index
020406080
100
120140160180200
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1985 = 100
Current Situation
Expectations
GDP Inflation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Percent Change
Federal Funds Rate Target
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Percent
Mortgage Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Percent
Fixed
Adjustable
Single-family Housing Starts
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Thousands
Homeownership Rate
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Percent
Total Employment vs. Total Housing Starts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Thousands Pct Chg. Year Ago
Employment - R
Housing Starts - L
Total Employment GrowthNovember 2003 to November 2004
Percent Change
2.0 to 4.8 (12)1.2 to 1.9 (15)0.7 to 1.1 (14)-0.9 to 0.6 (10)
Single-family Starts Pct Chg 2003-2004
U.S. = 6.4
Percent Change
11.8 to 20.6 (10)6.4 to 11.7 (20)0 to 6.3 (13)-5.8 to -0.1 (8)
Single-family Starts Pct Chg 2004-2005
U.S. =-2.8
Percent Change
0.0 to 12.6 (10)-2.8 to -0.1 (18)-4.6 to -2.9 (13)-8.5 to -4.7 (10)
Rental Vacancy Rates
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Percent
Buildings with 5 or More Units
Multifamily Housing Starts
050
100150200250
300350400450500
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Thousands
Condo Share Of Multifamily Starts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Percent
40.7
Multifamily Housing Starts Pct Chg 2003-2004
U.S. =-0.5
Percent Change
10.3 to 94.5 (11)-0.5 to 10.2 (17)-8.6 to -0.6 (13)-29.2 to -8.7 (10)
Multifamily Housing Starts Pct Chg 2004-2005
U.S. =-5.7
Percent Change
1.8 to 13.6 (10)-5.7 to 1.7 (23)-9.9 to -5.8 (8)-31.0 to -10.0 (10)
Total Housing Starts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Thousands
Starts Per Capita 2005
U.S. = 6.6
Starts per 1,000 Pop
9.0 to 23.2 (10)6.6 to 8.9 (10)4.2 to 6.5 (21)2.2 to 4.1 (10)
Manufactured Home Shipments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Thousands
Existing Home Sales
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Thousands
Residential Remodeling
020
4060
80100
120140
160180
200
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
ADDS/ALTS MAJOR REPL MAIN/REPAIRS
Billions of 2000 Dollars
Median New Home Size
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Square Feet
Multifamily
Single-family
1375
887
2137
1077
2218
1100
Residential Fixed Investment
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Billions of 2000 Dollars
Nonresidential Construction
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Billions of 2000 Dollars
Nonresidential Construction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Billions of 2000 Dollars
Lodging
Manufacturing
Office
Other Commercial
Other
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