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Updating Climate Metrics to Help Avoid Irreversible Impacts from CO2 and Other Climate Forcers
Presentation at meeting of Coalition of Agricultural Greenhouse GasesNovember 5, 2014Washington, D.C.
Tobias C. L. Schultz, Life Cycle Assessment PractitionerSCS Global Services
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Today’s Discussion
Quick Background
The critical need to update climate metrics
Key Features of updated climate metrics
Potential applications
Next Steps
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Quick Background
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Since 1700, concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased, affecting the climate.
These are climate forcers. Two types:
Positive forcers: Trap radiative heat from the Sun and Earth, preventing it from venting to space.
Negative forcers: Reflect heat from the Sun back into space.
On balance, there is more positive forcing than negative: this has warmed the Earth.
Climate Metrics are Based on Radiative Forcing
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Since 1700, concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased, affecting the climate.
These are climate forcers. Two types:
Positive forcers: Trap radiative heat from the Sun and Earth, preventing it from venting to space.
Negative forcers: Reflect heat from the Sun back into space.
On balance, there is more positive forcing than negative: this has warmed the Earth.
Climate Metrics are Based on Radiative Forcing
The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a measure of the radiative forcing potential of a pollutant compared to CO2.
Radiative forcing (in W/m2) is a measure of a climate forcer’s
affect on Earth’s heat balance.
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We Are Heading Towards Irreversible Climate Change
+2°
C
+1.5
°C
+4°
C
Thresholds of increasing irreversibility
Today: +0.8°C
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+1.5°C Threshold (2035) Arctic climate destabilizes; inundation of island states.
+2.0°C Threshold (2050) “Dangerous climate interference”, according to 2009 Copenhagen Accord.
+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank). 2000 205019501900
Significance of GlobalTemperature Thresholds
Source: UNEP and WMO report, 2011.
Even with aggressive mitigation focused on GHGs and short-lived forcers globally, +1.5°C will be exceeded.
1.5°C
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+1.5°C Threshold (2035) Arctic climate destabilizes; inundation of island states.
+2.0°C Threshold (2050) “Dangerous climate interference”, according to 2009 Copenhagen Accord.
+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank).
Up to 2 feet of sea level rise (IPCC)
Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +2.0°C.Significance of Global
Temperature Thresholds
Coral reefs decimated by bleaching.
Effects to water supplies include a 40% reduction in surface water in
Mississippi River Basin.
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+1.5°C Threshold (2035) Arctic climate destabilizes; inundation of island states.
+2.0°C Threshold (2050) “Dangerous climate interference”, according to 2009 Copenhagen Accord.
+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank).
Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +2.0°C.
Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +4.0°C.Significance of Global
Temperature Thresholds
Significant declines in food production in all
world regions.Effects to water supplies include a 40% reduction in surface water in
Mississippi River Basin.
As much as an 80% reduction in surface water in the Mississippi River Basin.
Unprecedented heat extremes.
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+1.5°C Threshold (2035) Arctic climate destabilizes; inundation of island states.
+2.0°C Threshold (2050) “Dangerous climate interference”, according to 2009 Copenhagen Accord.
+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank). 2000 205019501900
Up to 2 feet of sea level rise (IPCC)
Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +2.0°C.
Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +4.0°C.Significance of Global
Temperature Thresholds
Source: UNEP and WMO report, 2011.
Even with aggressive mitigation focused on GHGs and short-lived forcers globally, +1.5°C will be exceeded.
Coral reefs decimated by bleaching.
Significant declines in food production in all
world regions.Effects to water supplies include a 40% reduction in surface water in
Mississippi River Basin.
As much as an 80% reduction in surface water in the Mississippi River Basin.
1.5°CUnprecedented heat extremes.
+4°C was least reached 25 million years ago.
At this temperature, the Antarctic Ice Sheet
melted.
The world stayed this warm for 10 million years.
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Climate Change is Most Severe in the Arctic
The Arctic has warmed 3x as fast as the rest of the world.
Global implications:
Loss of Arctic summer sea ice increases forcing, accelerating climate change.
Methane releases from Arctic could reach catastrophic levels.
Some scientists think this methane could push the world past +2°C by 2035, accelerating irreversible climate change by 20 years.
Increase in temperatures since 1900
Source: NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
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The Other CO2 Problem – Ocean Acidification
CO2
Incr
ease
s
pH Decreases
Graphic and title source: NOAAhttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification
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The Other CO2 Problem – Ocean Acidification
CO2
Incr
ease
s
pH Decreases
Graphic and title source: NOAAhttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification
The oceans absorb about 25% of added atmospheric CO2 each year. This has led to a roughly 30% increase in acidity since the 1700s.
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Irreversible Impacts from Ocean AcidificationToday, the oceans are acidifying faster than any time in 300 million years.
By 2050, there will be no parts of the ocean which are optimal for coral reef growth.
By 2100, the oceans will be 3x as acidic as in 1700, becoming corrosive to coral reefs.
Living corals could be eliminated, possibly taking millions of years to recover.
Today 2050 2100
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The Critical Need for Updated Climate Metrics
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Current Climate Metrics Need to be UpdatedThe most commonly use climate metric, the GWP-100, is used universally in carbon trading programs, government policies, and international agreements.
The GWP-100 is based on the framework of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, based on the best consensus climate science of the time.
Since that time, climate science has progressed significantly, with improved understanding of:
The importance of short-lived climate forcers
Projections of global temperature changes
Pace and global ramifications of Arctic warming and Ocean Acidification
There is a need to update the GWP-100 with current science.
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GWP-100 Does Not Account for Other Impacts
Ocean Acidification
Arctic Climate Change
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-2.1 W/m2
(30%)
1.8 W/m2
(30%)
2.8 W/m2
(40%)
GHGs covered by GWP-100
Radiative Forcing (2011)
Carbon dioxide 1.8 W/m2
Methane 0.5 W/m2
Nitrous oxide 0.2 W/m2
Other GHGs 0.3 W/m2
Total 2.8 W/m2
GWP-100 Covers Only 40% of Contributors to Radiative Forcing
Short-Lived Climate Forcers
RadiativeForcing (2011)
Black carbon 1.1 W/m2
Brown carbon 0.3 W/m2
Tropospheric Ozone 0.4 W/m2
Total 1.8 W/m2
Cooling Climate Forcers
Radiative Forcing (2011)
Cooling aerosols (sulfate, nitrate, and organics)
-2.1 W/m2
© Scientific Certification Systems | 19© SCS Global Services | 19© SCS Global Services | 19(photo by Torre Jorgenson, downloaded September 22, 2014) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtm
GWP-100 is Calculated Using a 100-Year Time Horizon
Tanana Flats in Alaska, over last 20 years
This assumes that impacts from climate change are 100 years in the future.
Climate impacts are occurring today, and are rapidly intensifying.
Changes within 20 years could become irreversible.
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IPCC Warnings on Use of Longer Time Horizons in GWPs
In the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), IPCC has warned that:
“The uncertainty in the GWP increases with time horizon”
“for the 100-year GWP of WMGHGs the uncertainty can be as large as 40%.”
“this metric is not well suited for policies with a maximum temperature target.” (IPCC AR5, TS3.8)
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Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect forcing effects.
Direct: +0.5 W/m2
Indirect: +0.4 W/m2
GWP-100 of Methane Must Be Corrected
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
mW
m-2
per
mill
ion
tons
Years After Emission
Radiative Forcing of Methane (per million tons)
Direct + Indirect Effects Direct Effects
GWP-100 = 21-25
Commonly used GWP-100 amortizes the direct effect over 100 years.
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Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect forcing effects.
Direct: +0.5 W/m2
Indirect: +0.4 W/m2
GWP-100 of Methane Must Be Corrected
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
mW
m-2
per
mill
ion
tons
Years After Emission
Radiative Forcing of Methane (per million tons)
Direct + Indirect Effects Direct Effects
GWP-100 = 21-25
IPCC has provided updated GWP values with some indirect effects.
GWP-100 = 34
GWP-20 = 86
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Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect forcing effects.
Direct: +0.5 W/m2
Indirect: +0.4 W/m2
GWP-100 of Methane Must Be Corrected
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
mW
m-2
per
mill
ion
tons
Years After Emission
Radiative Forcing of Methane (per million tons)
Direct + Indirect Effects Direct Effects
GWP-100 = 21-25
NASA scientists have calculated GWP values with all indirect effects.
GWP-100 = 32
GWP-20 = 104
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Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect forcing effects.
Direct: +0.5 W/m2
Indirect: +0.4 W/m2
GWP-100 of Methane Must Be Corrected
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
mW
m-2
per
mill
ion
tons
Years After Emission
Radiative Forcing of Methane (per million tons)
Direct + Indirect Effects Direct Effects
GWP-100 = 21-25
NASA scientists have calculated GWP values with all indirect effects.
IPCC has provided updated GWP values with some indirect effects.
Commonly used GWP-100 amortizes the direct effect over 100 years.GWP-100 = 34
GWP-20 = 86
GWP-100 = 32
GWP-20 = 104
The GWP-100 underestimates the short-term impacts of methane by 80%.
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Key Features of the Updated Climate Metrics
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Updated Metrics are Part of Draft ANSI StandardDraft LEO-SCS-002 life cycle assessment standard, developed under the American National Standards Institute Process.
Standards committee includes 25 members from government, academia, industry, ENGO, and general interest.
Includes detailed guidelines for climate metrics, including:
Global Climate Change
Arctic Climate Change
Ocean Acidification
Accounted for separately.
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Based on Global Warming Potential EquationThe Earth is continually bathed in radiative heat from the sun.
Upon entering the Earth’s atmosphere: Some sunlight is reflected (scattered) Some is absorbed in the atmosphere Some is absorbed by the Earth’s surface Some is reflected by the Earth’s surface
The Earth’s surface emits infra-red radiation: Some escapes into space Some is absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere
on its way out (the greenhouse effect)
Radiative forcing is a measure of net heat absorption, by pollutant.
Pollutants causing forcing are climate forcers.
Updated metrics are based on the same GWP equation from IPCC reports.
Technical updates incorporate current consensus climate science.
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-2.1 W/m2
(30%)
1.8 W/m2
(30%)
2.8 W/m2
(40%)
GHGs covered by GWP-100
Radiative Forcing (2011)
Carbon dioxide 1.8 W/m2
Methane 0.5 W/m2
Nitrous oxide 0.2 W/m2
Other GHGs 0.3 W/m2
Total 2.8 W/m2
Accounting for All Climate Forcers
Short-Lived Climate Forcers
RadiativeForcing (2011)
Black carbon 1.1 W/m2
Brown carbon 0.3 W/m2
Tropospheric Ozone 0.4 W/m2
Total 1.8 W/m2
Cooling Climate Forcers
Radiative Forcing (2011)
Cooling aerosols (sulfate, nitrate, and organics)
-2.1 W/m2
Short-lived climate forcers and coolants are included with GHGs.
The term “Global Forcing Potential” (GFP) is used, including negative forcers.
© Scientific Certification Systems | 29© SCS Global Services | 29© SCS Global Services | 29(photo by Torre Jorgenson, downloaded September 22, 2014) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtm
Using a Time Horizon Linked to Temperature Thresholds
Tanana Flats in Alaska, over last 20 years
This assumes that impacts from climate change are 100 years in the future.
Climate impacts are occurring today, and are rapidly intensifying.
Changes within 20 years could become irreversible.
Time horizon used in GFPs is tied to the projected year when +1.5°C, +2°C, or +4°C is passed.
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Ensuring Accurate GFP Values
Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect effects.
Direct: +0.5 W/m2
Indirect: +0.4 W/m2
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
mW
m-2
Radiative Forcing of Methane (per million tons)
Direct + Indirect Effects Direct Effects
GWP-100 = 21
GWP-100 = 32
GWP-20 = 104
Account includes indirect forcing effects, using current data.
Impacts from methane and other forcers with indirect effects are correctly assessed.
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Potential Applications of the Updated Climate Metrics
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Using the Corrected GFP for MethaneExample: Three VCS projects, reducing fugitive methane emissions.
Annual emissions reductions, GWP-100: 150,000 tons CO2e.
Market value = $1M.
The GWP-100 undervalues the climate benefits of methane mitigation by 80%.
Corrected value, using GFP over 20 years: 750,000 tons CO2e.
Market value = $5M.
The corrected methane GFP recognizes the real climate benefit from reduced methane emissions.
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Climate Forcing Profiles and Footprints
Climate Forcing Profiles
Evaluates net forcing over time.
Measured in W/m2, each year.
Used to understand changes in radiative forcing over time.
Required when sources and sinks change over time.
Climate Footprints
Evaluates net integrated forcing before of a temperature threshold, relative to CO2.
Measured in tons CO2e.
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Example: Profile and Footprints for a Refrigerator
• 14 years of use in Georgia, US
• Made in China
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
mW
m-2
(x10
-9)
Years After Manufacture
Refrigerator Climate Profile and Footprint
Emissions of short-lived forcers during manufacture
Emissions of CO2 from use accumulate over 14 years
Long-lived gases remain in atmosphere for 100+ years
100+ years
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
mW
m-2
(x10
-9)
Years After Manufacture
Refrigerator Climate Profile and Footprint
2035 Climate Footprint = 9.9 tons CO2e
2100 Climate Footprint = 7.7 tons CO2e
2050 Climate Footprint = 7.9 tons CO2e
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
mW
m-2
(x10
-9)
Years After Manufacture
Refrigerator Climate Profile and Footprint
2035 Climate Footprint = 9.9 tons CO2e
2100 Climate Footprint = 7.7 tons CO2e
2050 Climate Footprint = 7.9 tons CO2e
Climate Forcing Profiles and Footprints are an excellent tool to assess emissions related to land use (e.g., agriculture, forestry).
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Using Forcing-Based Metrics to Aid in PrioritizationTo date, projects through VCS have offset nearly 160 million tons of CO2e emissions.
This is <1% of global annual emissions, and has reduced forcing by <0.001%.
California’s goals under AB 32 are similar in scale to what VCS has achieved.
Metrics focused on forcing provide a way to prioritize projects which could have measurable effect on global radiative forcing levels.
For example:
20-30% of all CO2 emitted since 1700 has been a result of land use changes.
IPCC estimates that up to 280 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans could be re-absorbed into degraded agricultural lands.
Brought to a large scale, these projects could have a decisive effect on radiative forcing and ocean acidification.
Image from SF Chronicle, Oct. 2014.
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Using Forcing-Based Metrics to Aid in PrioritizationTo date, projects through VCS have offset nearly 160 million tons of CO2e emissions.
This is <1% of global annual emissions, and has reduced forcing by <0.001%.
California’s goals under AB 32 are similar in scale to what VCS has achieved.
Metrics focused on forcing provide a way to prioritize projects which could have measurable effect on global radiative forcing levels.
For example:
20-30% of all CO2 emitted since 1700 has been a result of land use changes.
IPCC estimates that up to 280 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans could be re-absorbed into degraded agricultural lands.
Brought to a large scale, these projects could have a decisive effect on radiative forcing and ocean acidification.
Image from SF Chronicle, Oct. 2014.
IPCC 2014: To stay below +2°C, both emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal are required.
“Carbon farming” is one of the best options for carbon dioxide removal (few trade-offs, large scale).
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Next Steps
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Incorporation into ISO Standards
US Technical Advisory Group to ISO TC 207 is meeting next month to discuss incorporating updated climate metrics into ISO 14044.
International working group is meeting to revise ISO 14064.
US delegation is advocating that the updated climate metrics be allowed in this Standard.
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Next Steps
Immediate Need: Support at the US TAG and ISO level to ensure that metrics are incorporated into ISO standards.
Pilot projects using the metrics are also needed. Some possibilities:
Carbon registries could create pilot programs allowing projects based on the updated metrics.
Additional efforts should be devoted towards mitigation of Arctic Climate Change and Ocean Acidification.
There is a clear need for policy choices to be examined with updated metrics.
There are many other applications of the updated metrics.
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Conclusion: The Critical Need for Corrected Accounting
A UNEP-WMO report summarizes the outcome of several mitigation scenarios:
Purple Line: CO2 mitigation does not affect climate change before 2050.
Blue Line: BC & CH4 measures immediately slow climate change.
Pink Line: Only a complete strategy keeps the world below +2°C.
The GWP-100 focuses almost exclusively on CO2 mitigation. Continued reliance on this metric commits us to a +2°C world.
Updated metrics provide a comprehensive perspective, considering all forcers.
This is necessary to stay below +2°C.
2000 205019501900
2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone.
CO2 Measures: No effect before 2050
BC and methane measures: Immediate benefits
To stay below +2°C, mitigation must include all climate
forcers.
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Questions? Please Contact:Tobias Schultz, LCA Practitioner
SCS Global Services
tschultz@scsglobalservices.com
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