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Updating Climate Metrics to Help Avoid Irreversible Impacts from CO2 and Other Climate Forcers

Presentation at meeting of Coalition of Agricultural Greenhouse GasesNovember 5, 2014Washington, D.C.

Tobias C. L. Schultz, Life Cycle Assessment PractitionerSCS Global Services

© Scientific Certification Systems | 2© SCS Global Services | 2

Today’s Discussion

Quick Background

The critical need to update climate metrics

Key Features of updated climate metrics

Potential applications

Next Steps


Quick Background

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Since 1700, concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased, affecting the climate.

These are climate forcers. Two types:

Positive forcers: Trap radiative heat from the Sun and Earth, preventing it from venting to space.

Negative forcers: Reflect heat from the Sun back into space.

On balance, there is more positive forcing than negative: this has warmed the Earth.

Climate Metrics are Based on Radiative Forcing


Since 1700, concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased, affecting the climate.

These are climate forcers. Two types:

Positive forcers: Trap radiative heat from the Sun and Earth, preventing it from venting to space.

Negative forcers: Reflect heat from the Sun back into space.

On balance, there is more positive forcing than negative: this has warmed the Earth.

Climate Metrics are Based on Radiative Forcing

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a measure of the radiative forcing potential of a pollutant compared to CO2.

Radiative forcing (in W/m2) is a measure of a climate forcer’s

affect on Earth’s heat balance.


We Are Heading Towards Irreversible Climate Change

+2°

C

+1.5

°C

+4°

C

Thresholds of increasing irreversibility

Today: +0.8°C


+1.5°C Threshold (2035) Arctic climate destabilizes; inundation of island states.

+2.0°C Threshold (2050) “Dangerous climate interference”, according to 2009 Copenhagen Accord.

+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank). 2000 205019501900

Significance of GlobalTemperature Thresholds

Source: UNEP and WMO report, 2011.

Even with aggressive mitigation focused on GHGs and short-lived forcers globally, +1.5°C will be exceeded.

1.5°C




+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank).

Up to 2 feet of sea level rise (IPCC)

Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +2.0°C.Significance of Global

Temperature Thresholds

Coral reefs decimated by bleaching.

Effects to water supplies include a 40% reduction in surface water in

Mississippi River Basin.




+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank).

Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +2.0°C.



Significant declines in food production in all

world regions.Effects to water supplies include a 40% reduction in surface water in


As much as an 80% reduction in surface water in the Mississippi River Basin.

Unprecedented heat extremes.




+4.0°C Threshold (2100) Considered by many scientists to be “potentially catastrophic” (World Bank). 2000 205019501900

Up to 2 feet of sea level rise (IPCC)

Projected impacts when GMT anomaly reaches +2.0°C.



Source: UNEP and WMO report, 2011.

Even with aggressive mitigation focused on GHGs and short-lived forcers globally, +1.5°C will be exceeded.

Coral reefs decimated by bleaching.

Significant declines in food production in all

world regions.Effects to water supplies include a 40% reduction in surface water in


As much as an 80% reduction in surface water in the Mississippi River Basin.

1.5°CUnprecedented heat extremes.

+4°C was least reached 25 million years ago.

At this temperature, the Antarctic Ice Sheet

melted.

The world stayed this warm for 10 million years.


Climate Change is Most Severe in the Arctic

The Arctic has warmed 3x as fast as the rest of the world.

Global implications:

Loss of Arctic summer sea ice increases forcing, accelerating climate change.

Methane releases from Arctic could reach catastrophic levels.

Some scientists think this methane could push the world past +2°C by 2035, accelerating irreversible climate change by 20 years.

Increase in temperatures since 1900

Source: NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis


The Other CO2 Problem – Ocean Acidification

CO2

Incr

ease

s

pH Decreases

Graphic and title source: NOAAhttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification


The Other CO2 Problem – Ocean Acidification

CO2

Incr

ease

s

pH Decreases

Graphic and title source: NOAAhttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification

The oceans absorb about 25% of added atmospheric CO2 each year. This has led to a roughly 30% increase in acidity since the 1700s.


Irreversible Impacts from Ocean AcidificationToday, the oceans are acidifying faster than any time in 300 million years.

By 2050, there will be no parts of the ocean which are optimal for coral reef growth.

By 2100, the oceans will be 3x as acidic as in 1700, becoming corrosive to coral reefs.

Living corals could be eliminated, possibly taking millions of years to recover.

Today 2050 2100


The Critical Need for Updated Climate Metrics


Current Climate Metrics Need to be UpdatedThe most commonly use climate metric, the GWP-100, is used universally in carbon trading programs, government policies, and international agreements.

The GWP-100 is based on the framework of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, based on the best consensus climate science of the time.

Since that time, climate science has progressed significantly, with improved understanding of:

The importance of short-lived climate forcers

Projections of global temperature changes

Pace and global ramifications of Arctic warming and Ocean Acidification

There is a need to update the GWP-100 with current science.


GWP-100 Does Not Account for Other Impacts

Ocean Acidification

Arctic Climate Change


-2.1 W/m2

(30%)

1.8 W/m2

(30%)

2.8 W/m2

(40%)

GHGs covered by GWP-100

Radiative Forcing (2011)

Carbon dioxide 1.8 W/m2

Methane 0.5 W/m2

Nitrous oxide 0.2 W/m2

Other GHGs 0.3 W/m2

Total 2.8 W/m2

GWP-100 Covers Only 40% of Contributors to Radiative Forcing

Short-Lived Climate Forcers

RadiativeForcing (2011)

Black carbon 1.1 W/m2

Brown carbon 0.3 W/m2

Tropospheric Ozone 0.4 W/m2

Total 1.8 W/m2

Cooling Climate Forcers


Cooling aerosols (sulfate, nitrate, and organics)

-2.1 W/m2

© Scientific Certification Systems | 19© SCS Global Services | 19© SCS Global Services | 19(photo by Torre Jorgenson, downloaded September 22, 2014) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtm

GWP-100 is Calculated Using a 100-Year Time Horizon

Tanana Flats in Alaska, over last 20 years

This assumes that impacts from climate change are 100 years in the future.

Climate impacts are occurring today, and are rapidly intensifying.

Changes within 20 years could become irreversible.


IPCC Warnings on Use of Longer Time Horizons in GWPs

In the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), IPCC has warned that:

“The uncertainty in the GWP increases with time horizon”

“for the 100-year GWP of WMGHGs the uncertainty can be as large as 40%.”

“this metric is not well suited for policies with a maximum temperature target.” (IPCC AR5, TS3.8)


Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect forcing effects.

Direct: +0.5 W/m2

Indirect: +0.4 W/m2

GWP-100 of Methane Must Be Corrected

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

mW

m-2

per

mill

ion

tons

Years After Emission

Radiative Forcing of Methane (per million tons)

Direct + Indirect Effects Direct Effects

GWP-100 = 21-25

Commonly used GWP-100 amortizes the direct effect over 100 years.



Direct: +0.5 W/m2

Indirect: +0.4 W/m2


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

mW

m-2

per

mill

ion

tons




GWP-100 = 21-25

IPCC has provided updated GWP values with some indirect effects.

GWP-100 = 34

GWP-20 = 86



Direct: +0.5 W/m2

Indirect: +0.4 W/m2


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

mW

m-2

per

mill

ion

tons




GWP-100 = 21-25

NASA scientists have calculated GWP values with all indirect effects.

GWP-100 = 32

GWP-20 = 104



Direct: +0.5 W/m2

Indirect: +0.4 W/m2


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

mW

m-2

per

mill

ion

tons




GWP-100 = 21-25

NASA scientists have calculated GWP values with all indirect effects.

IPCC has provided updated GWP values with some indirect effects.

Commonly used GWP-100 amortizes the direct effect over 100 years.GWP-100 = 34

GWP-20 = 86

GWP-100 = 32

GWP-20 = 104

The GWP-100 underestimates the short-term impacts of methane by 80%.


Key Features of the Updated Climate Metrics


Updated Metrics are Part of Draft ANSI StandardDraft LEO-SCS-002 life cycle assessment standard, developed under the American National Standards Institute Process.

Standards committee includes 25 members from government, academia, industry, ENGO, and general interest.

Includes detailed guidelines for climate metrics, including:

Global Climate Change

Arctic Climate Change

Ocean Acidification

Accounted for separately.


Based on Global Warming Potential EquationThe Earth is continually bathed in radiative heat from the sun.

Upon entering the Earth’s atmosphere: Some sunlight is reflected (scattered) Some is absorbed in the atmosphere Some is absorbed by the Earth’s surface Some is reflected by the Earth’s surface

The Earth’s surface emits infra-red radiation: Some escapes into space Some is absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere

on its way out (the greenhouse effect)

Radiative forcing is a measure of net heat absorption, by pollutant.

Pollutants causing forcing are climate forcers.

Updated metrics are based on the same GWP equation from IPCC reports.

Technical updates incorporate current consensus climate science.


-2.1 W/m2

(30%)

1.8 W/m2

(30%)

2.8 W/m2

(40%)

GHGs covered by GWP-100


Carbon dioxide 1.8 W/m2

Methane 0.5 W/m2

Nitrous oxide 0.2 W/m2

Other GHGs 0.3 W/m2

Total 2.8 W/m2

Accounting for All Climate Forcers

Short-Lived Climate Forcers

RadiativeForcing (2011)

Black carbon 1.1 W/m2

Brown carbon 0.3 W/m2

Tropospheric Ozone 0.4 W/m2

Total 1.8 W/m2

Cooling Climate Forcers


Cooling aerosols (sulfate, nitrate, and organics)

-2.1 W/m2

Short-lived climate forcers and coolants are included with GHGs.

The term “Global Forcing Potential” (GFP) is used, including negative forcers.

© Scientific Certification Systems | 29© SCS Global Services | 29© SCS Global Services | 29(photo by Torre Jorgenson, downloaded September 22, 2014) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtm

Using a Time Horizon Linked to Temperature Thresholds

Tanana Flats in Alaska, over last 20 years

This assumes that impacts from climate change are 100 years in the future.

Climate impacts are occurring today, and are rapidly intensifying.

Changes within 20 years could become irreversible.

Time horizon used in GFPs is tied to the projected year when +1.5°C, +2°C, or +4°C is passed.


Ensuring Accurate GFP Values

Methane remains in the atmosphere for several decades, causing direct and indirect effects.

Direct: +0.5 W/m2

Indirect: +0.4 W/m2

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

mW

m-2



GWP-100 = 21

GWP-100 = 32

GWP-20 = 104

Account includes indirect forcing effects, using current data.

Impacts from methane and other forcers with indirect effects are correctly assessed.

© Scientific Certification Systems | 31© SCS Global Services | 31© Scientific Certification Systems | 31© SCS Global Services 31

Potential Applications of the Updated Climate Metrics


Using the Corrected GFP for MethaneExample: Three VCS projects, reducing fugitive methane emissions.

Annual emissions reductions, GWP-100: 150,000 tons CO2e.

Market value = $1M.

The GWP-100 undervalues the climate benefits of methane mitigation by 80%.

Corrected value, using GFP over 20 years: 750,000 tons CO2e.

Market value = $5M.

The corrected methane GFP recognizes the real climate benefit from reduced methane emissions.


Climate Forcing Profiles and Footprints

Climate Forcing Profiles

Evaluates net forcing over time.

Measured in W/m2, each year.

Used to understand changes in radiative forcing over time.

Required when sources and sinks change over time.

Climate Footprints

Evaluates net integrated forcing before of a temperature threshold, relative to CO2.

Measured in tons CO2e.


Example: Profile and Footprints for a Refrigerator

• 14 years of use in Georgia, US

• Made in China


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

mW

m-2

(x10

-9)

Years After Manufacture

Refrigerator Climate Profile and Footprint

Emissions of short-lived forcers during manufacture

Emissions of CO2 from use accumulate over 14 years

Long-lived gases remain in atmosphere for 100+ years

100+ years


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

mW

m-2

(x10

-9)



2035 Climate Footprint = 9.9 tons CO2e




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

mW

m-2

(x10

-9)






Climate Forcing Profiles and Footprints are an excellent tool to assess emissions related to land use (e.g., agriculture, forestry).


Using Forcing-Based Metrics to Aid in PrioritizationTo date, projects through VCS have offset nearly 160 million tons of CO2e emissions.

This is <1% of global annual emissions, and has reduced forcing by <0.001%.

California’s goals under AB 32 are similar in scale to what VCS has achieved.

Metrics focused on forcing provide a way to prioritize projects which could have measurable effect on global radiative forcing levels.

For example:

20-30% of all CO2 emitted since 1700 has been a result of land use changes.

IPCC estimates that up to 280 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans could be re-absorbed into degraded agricultural lands.

Brought to a large scale, these projects could have a decisive effect on radiative forcing and ocean acidification.

Image from SF Chronicle, Oct. 2014.


Using Forcing-Based Metrics to Aid in PrioritizationTo date, projects through VCS have offset nearly 160 million tons of CO2e emissions.

This is <1% of global annual emissions, and has reduced forcing by <0.001%.

California’s goals under AB 32 are similar in scale to what VCS has achieved.

Metrics focused on forcing provide a way to prioritize projects which could have measurable effect on global radiative forcing levels.

For example:

20-30% of all CO2 emitted since 1700 has been a result of land use changes.

IPCC estimates that up to 280 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans could be re-absorbed into degraded agricultural lands.

Brought to a large scale, these projects could have a decisive effect on radiative forcing and ocean acidification.

Image from SF Chronicle, Oct. 2014.

IPCC 2014: To stay below +2°C, both emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal are required.

“Carbon farming” is one of the best options for carbon dioxide removal (few trade-offs, large scale).


Next Steps


Incorporation into ISO Standards

US Technical Advisory Group to ISO TC 207 is meeting next month to discuss incorporating updated climate metrics into ISO 14044.

International working group is meeting to revise ISO 14064.

US delegation is advocating that the updated climate metrics be allowed in this Standard.


Next Steps

Immediate Need: Support at the US TAG and ISO level to ensure that metrics are incorporated into ISO standards.

Pilot projects using the metrics are also needed. Some possibilities:

Carbon registries could create pilot programs allowing projects based on the updated metrics.

Additional efforts should be devoted towards mitigation of Arctic Climate Change and Ocean Acidification.

There is a clear need for policy choices to be examined with updated metrics.

There are many other applications of the updated metrics.


Conclusion: The Critical Need for Corrected Accounting

A UNEP-WMO report summarizes the outcome of several mitigation scenarios:

Purple Line: CO2 mitigation does not affect climate change before 2050.

Blue Line: BC & CH4 measures immediately slow climate change.

Pink Line: Only a complete strategy keeps the world below +2°C.

The GWP-100 focuses almost exclusively on CO2 mitigation. Continued reliance on this metric commits us to a +2°C world.

Updated metrics provide a comprehensive perspective, considering all forcers.

This is necessary to stay below +2°C.

2000 205019501900

2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone.

CO2 Measures: No effect before 2050

BC and methane measures: Immediate benefits

To stay below +2°C, mitigation must include all climate

forcers.


Questions? Please Contact:Tobias Schultz, LCA Practitioner

SCS Global Services

[email protected]

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