turkish oilseeds &vegoils outlook september 09, 2014, hilton kiev, ukraine black sea oil...

TURKISH OILSEEDS &VEGOILS

OUTLOOK

 September 09, 2014, HILTON KIEV, UKRAINE

BLACK SEA OIL TRADE-2014

Sunseedman

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION

1-Turkish AgriFacts

2 – Turkish Oilseeds Outlook

3- Turkish Vegoils Outlook

4 – 2014/15 Season Projections

5- Presentation Summary

Sunseedman

Turkish AgriFacts

Source: www.fanack.com

Sunseedman

POPULATION : 76.667.864 ( 2013 update )

TOTAL AREA : 783.562 km2

AGRICULTURAL AREA : 238.110 km2 ( 30% )

( 23.811 Thd Ha )

AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT RATE : 25%

MAIN CROPS: Wheat ( 15-20 Mln T ), Sugar Beet ( 15-17 Mln T ), Barley ( 4–7 Mln T ), Corn ( 4-5 Mln T ), Cotton ( 2-3 Mln T ), Sunflower ( 1-1.5 Mln T ) and Paddy Rice ( 750 – 1.000 kmt ) etc.

Sunseedman

TURKISH OILSEEDS OUTLOOK

Sunseedman

TURKISH OILSEEDS PRODUCTION( 1000 TONS ) 2013/14 Season Crop Sizes

Sunseed 1500

Cottonseed 950

Soybean 130

Rapeseed 70 Safflowerseed 45

SunseedCottonseedSoybeanRapeseedSafflowerseed

Sunseedman

IN 2013/14 SEASON;

TURKEY RAISED

APPROX. 2.7 MLN T OF OILSEEDS.

SUNFLOWERSEED WAS THE BIGGEST RAISED OILSEED

WITH 55% SHARE.Sunseedma

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TURKISH OILSEEDS CRUSHINGS ( 1000 TONS )

2013/14 Season Crushings

Sunseed 2100

Cottonseed 950

Soy-bean 450

Rapeseed 200

Safflowerseed 45 Linseed/Camelina 100

2013/14 Season Crushings

Sunseed

Cottonseed

Soybean

Rapeseed

Safflowerseed

Linseed/Camelina

Sunseedman

IN 2013/14 SEASON;

TURKEY CRUSHED

APPROX. 3.85 MLN T OF OILSEEDS.

SUNFLOWERSEED WAS THE BIGGEST CRUSHED OILSEED

WITH 55% SHARE.

Sunseedman

TURKEY HAS AROUND

8.0 MLN TOF CRUSHING CAPACITY

BUT ONLY

HALF-CAPACITY USAGESunseedma

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TURKISH OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( 1000 TONS )

Sunseed 710

Cottonseed 20

Soybean 1074

Rapeseed 137

Linseed/Camelina 100

Others 212013 Calendar Year

Sunseed

Cottonseed

Soybean

Rapeseed

Linseed/Camelina

Others

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

TURKEY IMPORTED

APPROX. 2.07 MLN T OF OILSEEDS.

AND PAID AROUND

1.27 MILLIARD USD

SOYBEANS WAS THE BIGGEST OILSEED WITH 52% SHARE.

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

MAJOR 3 ORIGINS AS PER OILSEEDS ;

SOYBEAN; USA, Paraguay, Ukraine

SUNSEED; Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania

RAPESEED; Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine

COTTONSEED; Greece

LINSEED/CAMELINA; Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

TURKEY EXPORTED

ALMOST NIL OF OILSEEDS

EXCEPT SOME HYBRID SALES AND

INSIGNIFICANT NEIGHBOOR PARTIES.

Sunseedman

TURKISH VEGOILS

OUTLOOK

Sunseedman

TURKISH VEGOILS PRODUCTION( 1000 TONS )

SunOil 875

CottonOil 130

SoyOil 80

RapeOil 80

LinOil 35SafflowerOil 15

CornOil 60

OliveOil 200 Hazelnut Oil 15

2013/14 Season Productions

SunOil

CottonOil

SoyOil

RapeOil

LinOil

SafflowerOil

CornOil

OliveOil

Hazelnut Oil

Sunseedman

IN 2013/14 SEASON;

TURKEY PRODUCED

APPROX. 1.49 MLN T OF VEGOILS.

SUNOIL WAS THE MOST PRODUCED VEGOIL

WITH 60% SHARE.Sunseedma

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TURKISH LIQUID VEGOILS CONSUMPTION( 1000 TONS )

SunOil 950

CottonOil 45SoyOil 10

RapeOil 20

Hazelnut Oil 10

CornOil 60 OliveOil 125

2013/14 Season Consumptions

SunOil

CottonOil

SoyOil

RapeOil

Hazelnut Oil

CornOil

OliveOil

Sunseedman

IN 2013/14 SEASON;

TURKEY CONSUMED

APPROX. 1.22 MLN T OF LIQUID VEGOILS.

SUNFLOWER OIL WAS THE MOST CONSUMED VEGOIL

WITH OVER 75% SHARE.Sunseedma

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TURKISH VEGOILS IMPORTS ( 1000 TONS )

SunOil 632

PalmOil 592

PalmKernelOil 93

CornOil 40 Soyoil 6 Others 28 2013 Calendar Year Imports

SunOilPalmOilPalmKernelOilCornOilSoyoilOthers

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

TURKEY IMPORTED

APPROX. 1.39 MLN T OF VEGOILS.

AND PAID AROUND

1.6 MILLIARD USD

SUNOIL WAS THE BIGGEST IMPORTED VEGOIL WITH 45% SHARE.

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

MAJOR 3 ORIGINS AS PER VEGOILS ;

SUNOIL; Russia, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herseq

PALMOIL; Indonesia, Malaysia

PALMKERNEL OIL; Indonesia, Malaysia

CORNOIL; USA, Spain, France

SOYOIL; Ukraine, Romania, USA

Sunseedman

TURKISH VEGOILS EXPORTS ( 1000 TONS )

SunOil 569

CornOil 30

SoyOil 10

Others 9

OliveOil 922013 Calendar Year Exports

SunOilCornOilSoyOilOthersOliveOil

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

TURKEY EXPORTED

APPROX. 710 KMT OF VEGOILS.

AND GOT AROUND

1.18 MILLIARD USD

SUNOIL WAS THE BIGGEST EXPORTED VEGOIL WITH 80% SHARE.

Sunseedman

IN 2013 CALENDAR YEAR;

MAJOR 3 DESTINATIONS AS PER VEGOILS ;

SUNOIL; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon

CORNOIL; Libya, Israel, Iran

SOYOIL; Turkish Cyprus, Iraq, Sudan

OLIVEOIL; USA, Spain, ItalySunseedma

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MARGARINEIN 2013;

• TURKEY PRODUCED AROUND 725 KMT,

• TURKEY CONSUMED AROUND 570 KMT ( 415 KMT INDUSTRIAL, 115 KMT BREAKFAST, 40 KMT GHEE-TYPE )

• TURKEY EXPORTED AROUND 155 KMT

Source: MUMSAD

Sunseedman

TURKEY HAS AROUND

4.0 MLN TOF REFINING CAPACITY

AND

1.0 MLN TOF MARGARINE CAPACITY

Sunseedman

IMPORT DUTY RATESFOR MAJOR OILSEEDS/VEGOILS;

Sunseed, 27%, but not less than 216 $/mt ( 800 $/mt reference

price x 0.27 )

Soybean, 0%,Rapeseed, 10%,

Crude Sunoil, 36%,but not less than 540 $/mt ( 1.500 $/mt reference price x

0.36 )

Refined Sunoil, 50%, but not less than 1.000 $/mt ( 2.000 $/mt reference

price x 0.36 )

Other Vegoils, 31.2%

Sunseedman

2014/15 SEASON PROJECTIONS

FOR

SUNSEED AND SUNOIL

Sunseedman

TURKEY WILL RAISE 1.250 KMT OF SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE VS RECORD 1.500 KMT OF 2013/14

IN SPITE OF QUITE IDEAL SUMMER WEATHER

CONDITIONS. MAIN REASON OF CROP REDUCTION WAS BEING

LESS LUCRATIVE VS GRAINS, SO ACREAGE LOWERED TO 530 KHA

VS 690 KHA IN 2013/14 SEASON.

Sunseedman

TURKISH LOCAL SUNOIL CONSUMPTION WILL

INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.000 KMT VS 975 KMT ( 950 EDIBLE + 25 TECHNICAL ) OF 2013/14

WITH INCREASING POPULATION, MORE TOURISTS

( AROUND 35 MLN IN 2013 ) AND SOME SHIFTS FROM

OTHER VEGOILS. Sunseedma

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TURKISH SUNOIL EXPORTS WILL GET LOWER TO

AROUND 600 KMT VS 685 KMT ( 460 IRAQ + 225 OTHERS ) OF 2013/14WITH GEOPOLITICAL

CONFLICTS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AND SO LESS

INTERNATIONAL TENDERS BY IRAQ GOVERNMENT.

Sunseedman

FINAL BALANCETurkish Local Sunoil Consumption 1.000 kmt

Turkish Sunoil Exports 600 kmt

Total Sunoil Demand 1.600 kmt

Local Sunoil Production ( 1.250 kmt x 0.42 ) 525 kmtShortage 1.075 kmt

Such shortage will be met by Sunseed and Sunoil imports.

Sunseedman

TURKISH SUNSEED IMPORTS WILL BE

AROUND 900 KMT VS 600 KMT OF 2013/14,

MAINLY FROM MOLDOVA AND PARTLY FROM

BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA.

Sunseedman

TURKISH SUNOIL IMPORTS WILL BE

AROUND 700 KMT VS 795 KMT OF 2013/14,MAINLY FROM RUSSIA

AND PARTLY FROM UKRAINE AND BOSNIA ( 0% IMPORT-DUTY )

Sunseedman

PRESENTATION

SUMMARY

Sunseedman

• Turkish Agricultural Employment Rate is around 25%.

• Sunflower is the most important oilseed of Turkey.

• Turkey is net importer for oilseeds and vegoils, so paid 2.87 Milliard USD totally ( even 3.68 Milliard USD including Oilmeals ) in 2013 calendar year.

• Turkey will raise 1.25 Mln T ( vs record 1.5 Mln T in 2013/14 ) of Sunseed new-crop size in 2014/15 season.

• Turkey will import 900 kmt ( vs 600 kmt in 2013/14 ) of Sunseed in 2014/15 season.

• Turkey will import 700 kmt ( vs record 795 kmt in 2013/14 ) of SunOil in 2014/15 season.

• Turkey will export 600 kmt ( vs record 685 kmt in 2013/14 ) of SunOil in 2014/15 season.

Sunseedman

Great thanks

Sunseedman