truetrends by truecar january 2010
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January15th, 2009
by
Automotive intelligence covering new car prices, best car deals and more.
The Truth Will Prevail
During the last month, TrueCar acquired actual sales transaction data for more than 43% of all new vehicles sold within the United States. We continue to work to grow this number aggressively. As of December 2009, this represents more than 442,000 vehicles sold nationally and 4.8 million year-to-date.
TrueCar is insatiable about data with our goal to find 100% of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem.
We obtain our data directly from car dealers, respected dealer management system (DMS) providers, and well-known data aggregators within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration an insurance data, and much, much more.
TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.
Score
TrueCar Price Flex Score
1
Least Flexible 2009 Models
ModelMake
Tahoe
Yukon
Escalade
G-Series
CR-V
GMC
Chevrolet
Cadillac
Infiniti
Honda
7-Series
Torrent
BMW
Pontiac
FitHonda
X5-Series
1-Series
BMW
BMW
14
12
15
19
22
30
32
32
34
34
97
97
91
90
89
85
84
84
79
77
Score
Most Flexible 2009 Models
ModelMake
H3
MX-5 Miata
Viper
New Beetle
Eos
Mazda
HUMMER
Dodge
Volkswagen
Volkswagen
Eclipse
Aveo
Mitsubishi
Chevrolet
RoutanVolkswagen
XLR
S2000
Cadillac
Honda
What is the TrueCar Price Flex Score?
The TrueCar Price Score measures the elasticity of trans-action price by model. The Price Flex Score calculation dynamically incorporates the factors that effect price variance including the model’s transaction price range, current inventory and sales data. A vehicle experiencing extremely low inventory and a small range of transaction prices will have a low Price Flex Score. Don’t expect much of a discount from the TrueCar average transaction price on a vehicle with a low Price Flex Score. If a vehicle has a high Price Flex Score, however, you have the potential to strike
a deal significantly below (or above, if you’re not careful!) the TrueCar average transaction price. Here are the 2009 and 2010 models with the highest and the lowest Price Flex Scores. We also show the models with the highest and lowest Price Flex Score within each vehicle category. The scores range from 1 to 100. A score of 1 corresponds to the lowest Price Flex Score and indicates a very small -if any- negotiation power. A score of 100 indicates the highest Price Flex Score, meaning there is a big range of transaction prices for that model.
Score
Least Flexible 2010 Models
ModelMake
Enclave
Yukon
Navigator
Escalade
Tahoe
GMC
Buick
Lincoln
Cadillac
Chevrolet
Sequoia
Q7
Toyota
Audi
AcadiaGMC
CR-V
A6
Honda
Audi
14
10
15
16
16
18
19
21
22
22
90
93
88
86
85
85
84
83
83
81
Score
Most Flexible 2010 Models
ModelMake
PT Cruiser
MX-5 Miata
6
H3
Accent
Mazda
Chrysler
Mazda
HUMMER
Hyundai
Yaris
5
Toyota
Mazda
ElantraHyundai
Lancer
Nitro
Mitsubishi
Dodge
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar Price Flex Score (continued...)
2
Least and Most Flexible 2009 Vehicles ( by Body Type )
Least Flexible ModelBody Type
BMW 1-Series (Score: 34)
Smart ForTwo (Score: 40)
Chevrolet Avalanche (Score: 37)
Infiniti G-Series (Score: 19)
Chevrolet Tahoe (Score: 12)
Coupe
Convertible
Pickup
Sedan
Sport Utility
Kia Sedona (Score: 42)
Most Flexible Model
Mazda MX-5 Miata (Score: 97)
Pontiac G6 (Score: 62)
Honda Ridgeline (Score: 71)
Chevrolet Aveo (Score: 84)
Hummer H3 (Score: 97)
Volkswagen Routan (Score: 84)Van
This largest incentives list totals both available consumer and dealer incentives. The incentives are ranked by largest percent discount off MSRP. Generally, incentives are active throughout the month in which TrueTrends by TrueCar is released. Though active at the time of the reports’ release, incentives are subject to change without notice. Check for updates on the TrueCar price report for each model and with your dealer.
Least and Most Flexible 2010 Vehicles ( by Body Type )
Least Flexible ModelBody Type
BMW 1 - Series (Score: 31)
Audi A5 (Score: 27)
Chevrolet Colorado (Score: 29)
Audi A6 (Score: 22)
Buick Enclave (Score: 10)
Coupe
Convertible
Pickup
Sedan
Sport Utility
Honda Odyssey (Score: 31)
Most Flexible Model
Mazda MX-5 Miata (Score: 90)
Honda Civic (Score: 78)
Nissan Titan (Score: 78)
Mazda 6 (Score: 88)
Chrysler PT Cruiser (Score: 93)
Mazda 5 (Score: 84)Van
Largest Total Incentives for January
Top Models
1
Make / ModelRank % Discount From MSRP
2009 Dodge Ram 1500 27%
2009 Pontiac G3 27%
2009 Pontiac Vibe 24%
2010 Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck 23%
2009 Pontiac G5
$ Incentives
$6,000
$4,000
$4,000
$5,500
$4,000
MSRP
$22,420
$15,055
$16,735
$24,105
$17,700
2
3
4
5 23%
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
Greatest Discounts
3
1
Make
Top 2009 Makes Top 2010 Makes
Top 2009 Models Top 2010 Models
Rank % Below MSRP
HUMMER 28%
Dodge 24%
Saturn 20%
Hyundai 16%
Kia
2
3
4
5 16%
1
MakeRank % Below MSRP
Ford 12%
Chrysler 11%
Lincoln 10%
Jeep 10%
Volvo
2
3
4
5 9%
1
Make / ModelRank % Below MSRP
2009 Dodge Ram 1500 27%
2009 Kia Sorento 23%
2009 Chevrolet Cobalt 20%
2009 Chevy Silverado 1500 17%
2009 Chevrolet Corvette
2
3
4
5 17%
1
Make / ModelRank
Ford RangerFord Ranger 17%
Jeep Grand Cherokee 16%
Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck 13%
Ford Edge 13%
Ford Focus
2
3
4
5 12%
% Below MSRP
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
Top 2009 Makes
% B
ELO
W M
SRP
5%
10%
15%
20%
30%
25%
HummerDodgeSaturnHyundaiKia
September October November December
How Do I Use This?
The greatest percent below MSRP helps identify the biggest consumer discounts of the month. Below, TrueCar ranks 2009 and 2010 vehicles with average transaction prices that comprise the greatest percent off the make or model’s average MSRP.
Greatest Discounts (continued...)
Top 2009 Models ( by Body Type ) Top 2010 Models ( by Body Type )
4
ModelBody Type% Below MSRP
Dodge Ram 1500 27%
Kia Sorento 23%
Chevrolet Cobalt 20%
Chevrolet Impala 16%
Kia Sedona
Sport Utility
Pickup
Coupe
Sedan
Van 11%
Mercedes-Benz CLK-Class 9%
Nissan Cube 5%
Convertible
Wagon
ModelBody Type% Below MSRP
Jeep Grand Cherokee 17%
Ford Ranger 17%
Ford Edge 13%
Volvo C70 12%
Volvo XC70
Pickup
Sport Utility
Sedan
Convertible
Wagon 12%
Chrysler Town & Country 11%
Toyota Yaris 10%
Van
Coupe
Best Day of the Month to Buy a Car
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
Consumer Tip of the Month
Our projections for the best and worst day to buy a new vehicle are rooted in an analysis of historical sales as well as short term forecasts. Our projections, over the next 31 days, suggest that the best day to buy a car will be on February 1st, in time for Valentine’s Day. The worst day to buy a car will likely be on February 9th.
PRO
JEC
TED
AVE
RA
GE
DIS
CO
UN
T
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Best Day to Buy a VehicleFebruary 1st, 2010Average Discount: 6.62%
Worst Day to Buy a VehicleFebruary 9th, 2010Average Discount: 5.42%
1/17/10 1/21/10 1/25/10 1/29/10 2/02/10 2/06/10 2/10/10 2/14/10
Feb 1, 2010
Feb 9, 2010
Top Vehicles ( by Body Type )
Top Vehicles (overall)
Greatest Price Drop Month Over Month
1
Year / Make / Model / TrimRank $ Drop From Last Month
2010 Ford F-150 4WD SuperCrew 145" XL -$1,404
2009 Pontiac G6 4dr Sedan w/1SV -$1,376
2009 Infiniti G37 Sedan 4dr x AWD -$605
2010 Mercedes-Benz E-Class 4dr Sedan Luxury 3.5L 4MATIC AWD -$564
2010 Volvo XC60 AWD 4dr 3.2L w/Moonroof
2
3
4
5 -$561
Year / Make / Model / TrimBody Type $ Drop From Last Month
2010 Volvo XC60 AWD 4dr 3.2L w/Moonroof -$561
2010 Ford F-150 4WD SuperCrew 145" XL -$1,404
2009 Pontiac G6 4dr Sedan w/1SV -$1,376
2010 Dodge Challenger 2dr Coupe R/T Classic -$288
2010 Lexus IS 250C 2dr Conv Man
Pickup
Sport Utility
Sedan
Coupe
Convertible -$122
2010 Toyota Sienna 5dr 7-Pass Van XLE FWD -$215
2010 Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen 4dr DSG TDI -$273
Mini-van
Wagon
5
For each body type, TrueCar tracks the average transaction price for each trim and lists vehicles with the greatest drop in price month over month. TrueCar also ranks the trims with the overall greatest drop in price from December 11th, 2009 to January 19th, 2010.
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
2009 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2009 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
Acura MDX 27
Infiniti G37 47
Toyota Venza 49
GMC Yukon XL Denali 50
Chevy Suburban K1500
2
3
4
5 52
Nissan Cube 63
Hyundai Santa Fe 64
Chevrolet Tahoe 64
Chevy Silverado 2500 HD
6
7
8
9 67
Kia Borrego10 69
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
Saab 9-3 358
Acura TL 264
Volkswagen CC 238
Chevrolet Corvette 238
Chevrolet Impala
2
3
4
5 237
Chevrolet Aveo 5 237
Chrysler 300 233
Chevrolet Cobalt 231
Chevrolet HHR
6
7
8
9 229
Saturn Aura10 229
Shortest to Longest ( by Body Type )Industry Wide Average Days to Turn for December: 49 Days
Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory 1
9
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
Wagon 25
Sport Utility 27
Coupe 29
Hatchback 32
Pickup
2
3
4
5 32
Convertible 336
Van 35
Pickup
7
8 36
Sedan 36
2010 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2010 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
Lexus GX 460 5
Hyundai Tucson 6
Acura MDX 7
Toyota Venza 9
Nissan Cube
2
3
4
5 10
Chevy Suburban K1500 10
Toyota 4Runner 11
Lexus LS 460 L 11
Mercedes-Benz GL550
6
7
8
9 11
BMW X310 11
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
Kia Forte 72
Hyundai Sonata 71
Chevrolet Malibu 71
Honda Insight 66
Ford Mustang
2
3
4
5 65
Jaguar XF 65
Volvo C70 64
Mazda 3 60
Lincoln MKZ
6
7
8
9 59
Dodge Grand Caravan10 58
December’s Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory
TrueCar ranks the vehicles that spend, on average, the shortest and longest days on the lot before they sell. We rank both by overall shortest/longest days in inventory as well as by category. Vehicles that spend little time in inventory are in high demand, while vehicles that spend an extended time in inventory are in low demand.
6January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
Percent Industry Share of Model Year Vehicles
Model Year Share shows the percentage share of 2009 model year vehicles sold within the last month versus vehicles of any other model year sold. Gen-erally, the higher the model year share value, the higher the discount a consumer can expect to receive on that given model. It also reflects that dealers are more likely to cut deals on a 2009 model in order to make room for a 2010.
Model Year Share
Highest Percentage of 2009 Vehicles Sold
7
Lowest Percentage of 2009 Vehicles Sold
Make / ModelRank % of Sales
1 Toyota Corolla 0.09%
Ford Fusion 0.09%
Toyota Sienna 0.12%
Toyota Prius 0.12%
Mercedes-Benz E-Class
2
3
4
5 0.28%
Mazda 3 0.34%
Chevrolet Equinox 0.36%
BMW 5 Series 0.47%
Honda Pilot
6
7
8
9 0.60%0.63%
1
Make / ModelRank
Volkswagen Rabbit
Volvo S60
Chevrolet Aveo
Mazda MX-5 Miata
GMC Sierra 2500HD
2
3
4
5
Kia Sportage
Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD
Cadillac DTS
GMC Yukon XL
6
7
8
9GMC Sierra 150010
% of Sales
99.6%
97.8%
97.2%
96.5%
96.1%
96.0%
94.4%
93.7%
93.2%92.9%10 Toyota Matrix
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc.
76%2010 Vehicles
24%2009 Vehicles
Between 2009 and 2010 vehicles, 2010 shares 76% of total sales.
January 15th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2009 TrueCar, Inc. 8
Appendix
About Us
TrueCar (www.truecar.com) is the authority in new-car pricing. It aggregates multiple data sources to show car buyers and dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area. It is offered online, free of charge - so anyone can know at any time what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer walk into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: they walk in knowing exactly the price of a fair deal. Dealers gain real-time, unbiased information about
Contact Us
TrueCar, Inc.225 Santa Monica Blvd, 6th FloorSanta Monica, CA 90401(800) 200-2000info@truecar.com
Visit us at www.truecar.com
marketplace pricing, helping them know how to price their cars to sell more and gain market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.
Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein is for your noncommercial, personal use on an “as-is, as available” basis and may be used by you for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this report and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained in this report may
include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this report.
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