trends in technology 1997

HAL 9000 and More:HAL 9000 and More:Trends in TechnologyTrends in TechnologyHAL 9000 and More:HAL 9000 and More:Trends in TechnologyTrends in Technology

presented bypresented by

Grabush, Newman & Co., Grabush, Newman & Co., P.A.P.A.

Certified Public Accountants & Management Certified Public Accountants & Management ConsultantsConsultants

Chaim Yudkowsky, CPA

ObjectivesObjectives

To provide you with a look at new technologies and trends

Discussion of business, cultural, and social impacts of those technologies to the communication field

Why (continue to) use Why (continue to) use technology?technology?

Increase recreation and entertainment Improve productivity Improve convenience Improve accuracy Improve efficiency Improve clarity and neatness Increase timeliness Increase accessibility Reduce costs

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Arthur L. Clarke, The Lost Worlds of 2001

TrendTrend

Fundamental societal shift to being “Knowledge based.”

Peter Drucker, The Post Capitalist Society

Technology - Technology - ExistingExisting

Personal computers and GUI VCR / TV CD-ROM services Color printing E-mail Fax Voice mail Wireless OCR Scanning Internet

The Internet seems pervasive, but...The Internet seems pervasive, but...

. . . it involves many technologies!. . . it involves many technologies!

Vision is the art of seeing things invisible.

Jonathan Swift, Thoughts on Various Subjects

Technology -Technology - Near-term emerging Near-term emerging

Groupware Multimedia Animation Personal digital assistants Kiosks DVD Internet push technology

“In the world of the Internet, is there a place for a packager of services? Does the customer want to go surf the Net and go to every one of 50,000 Web sites?Or will people pay a reasonable amount for somebodyto go out and preselect and package what they want?My guess is that both will coexist.”

Lou GerstnerCEO IBM / Prodigy Services Partner

Business Week Oct 30, 1995

Technology - Technology - Longer-term emergingLonger-term emerging

Video conferencing Virtual reality Imaging Interactive TV

– Experiment in Orlando Intelligent agent Web TV

– Niche segment appeal for next 5 years

Technology - Technology - Ongoing emergingOngoing emerging

Chips -- Pentium MMX, II, and beyond Electronic commerce Data warehouse leveraging High-definition TV Voice synthesis & recognition Intranet / Extranet Two-way paging PCS extension of wireless

Technology - Technology - Novelty and NicheNovelty and Niche

Fanny pack PC Virtual pets TruePosition geographical positioning Net games Child playgrounds

The Information Highway will transform our culture as dramatically as Gutenberg’s press did in the middle ages.

Bill Gates, CEO, MicrosoftThe Road Ahead

Today, many technology Today, many technology innovations seem to involve innovations seem to involve

information and communication. information and communication.

A man’s feet must be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world.

George Santayana, philosopher

Technology Drivers Technology Drivers

Globalization and global competition Pace of change / pace of communication Collaboration Continuous pressure to outperform Downsizing of resources Hunger for knowledge

Knowledge has become the “key resource” of the world economy. The traditional factors - land, labor, capital - are becoming restraints rather than driving forces.

Peter Drucker

Decision Information OverloadDecision Information Overload

High High

Low Low

Abilityto Make a Decision

Quality of knowledge

Quality of informationLow High

Technology changing Technology changing expectationsexpectations

Mass customization / mass niche marketing Infotainment Telecomputer convergence Info-intensive value chain Telecommuting Virtual corporation Virtual shopping

Who is using it?Who is using it?

Xers, Boomers, and Matures “Technology sometimes intimidates me.” -

55:57:64 Simplicity sells Xers = practicality Boomers = efficiency Matures = accessibility

Overall technology issuesOverall technology issues

Speed and degradation Privacy Confidentiality Security Permanency Copyright Usage policy Quality of life

AICPA IT Committee 1997 AICPA IT Committee 1997 Top 10Top 10

1. Security.

2. Image Processing.

3. General communication technology.

4. The Internet and public online services.

5. Training and technology competency.

AICPA IT Committee 1997 AICPA IT Committee 1997 Top 10Top 10

6. The Year 2000.

7. Electronic commerce.

8. Workflow.

9. Private networks, including intranets.

10. Electronic data interchange (EDI).

Specific technology Specific technology implementationsimplementations

Database management Document preparation Electronic mail Contact management Presentations

Point to ponderPoint to ponder

Senior managers who do not make information technology an integral part of their business strategy will find their future seriously threatened by competitors who do. Jaak Juison, Asst Professor of IS

Fordham University

Reader of Business Week

Discussion / Questions Discussion / Questions

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