trends in minnesota motorcycle crash injury

Council of State & Territorial EpidemiologistsJune 4, 2012 / Omaha, NE

Leslie Seymour, MD, MPH Jon Roesler, MS Anna Gaichas, MS Mark Kinde, MPH

Injury and Violence PreventionMinnesota Department of Healthinjury.prevention@health.state.mn.us

Trends in MinnesotaMotorcycle Crash Injury

Background

Methods

Results

Discussion

Background

1979-1988

1989-1998

1999-2008

1979-88 1989-98 1999-2008

Is engine size increasing? The average engine size in all classes of motorcycles involved in fatal crashes has risen. Motorcycles with engine sizes larger than 1,400 cubic centimeters:

29 percent in 20109 percent in 2000 2 percent in 1997

http://www.iihs.org/research/qanda/motorcycles.aspx

Methods

Data• MHA (Minnesota Hospital Association)

Universal Billing Data• DPS (Department of Public Safety) Crash Data• Death Certificates• CODES Data (Crash Outcome Data Evaluation

System)- Linked Hospital and Crash Data

• DVS (Department of Vehicle Services) Data- Licensed Operators- Registered Vehicles

• Data looked at was restricted to drivers.

Results

Minnesota Motor Vehicle Crashes2001-2010

2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

f(x) = − 108.529999436733 x + 2746.67146399397

Rate

Rates are incidents per 100,000 driver licenses/permits

Minnesota Motorcycle Crash Trend2001-2010

2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

f(x) = − 0.486004941455997 x + 391.363257683155

Rate

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators MN Crash Facts

MN Motorcycle-related Death Trend2001-2010

2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

f(x) = 0.478402767551437 x + 16.7861373081915

Rate

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators Death Certificates

Rate of MN Motorcycle-Related Injuries

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

f(x) = 3.89441761659429 x + 418.756386712527

Rate

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators Hospital UB data

Rate of Minnesota TBI Resulting from Motorcycle Crashes

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

f(x) = 3.89908265209781 x + 58.3272686176247

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators Hospital UB data

Rate

Rate of TBIMotorcycle & Other Motor Vehicle Crashes

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Motorcycle Crash

Other Motor Vehicle CrashRate

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators & 100,000 licensed/permitted drivers

Rates of Severity of TBI by CauseIf in a crash

2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

8,000.0

10,000.0

12,000.0

14,000.0

Motorcycle, Mild

Motorcycle, Severe

Other MVC, Mild

Motorcycle, ModerateOther MVC, Moderate

Other MVC, Severe

Rates are incidents per 100,000 crashes

Rate

Potential Influencing Factors• Increased numbers of motorcycles/riders• Gender• Age-group• Location: Urban vs. Rural• Helmet Use• Impairment• Speed

Percent IncreaseLicensed Operators & Registered Vehicles

20012003

20052007

20090

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

----- Licensed Drivers ----- Registered Vehicles

20012003

20052007

20090

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

----- Licensed Drivers ---- Registered Vehicles

N N

Cars & Trucks Motorcycles

24%

61%

8%

12%

DVS Data

Number of Injured MotorcyclistsGender by year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FM

43%

N

YearHospital UB data

33%

Rate of Injured Motorcyclists Gender by year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

Female

Male

Rate

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators Hospital UB data

Motorcycle Injuries by Age Group2001-2010

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-900

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

N

Hospital UB data

Rate of Motorcycle Injury by Age Group

15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-900.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

Rates are incidents per 100,000 motorcycle licensed operators

Rate

Hospital UB data

Age Groups with Largest Increases in Injuries

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0-1011-2021-3031-4041-5051-6061-7071-8081-90

61-70 310%

41-50 39%

51-60 116%N

Year Hospital UB data

Location of Crashes: Urban vs. Rural2004 - 2007

2004 2005 2006 20070

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

UrbanRural

N

Year Crash Data

Motorcyclist Impairment in Crashes2004-2007

2004 2005 2006 20070

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

UnknownNoYes

No

Yes

Unknown

N

Year Crash Data

Helmet Use by Motorcyclists that Crashed, 2004 - 2007

2004 2005 2006 20070

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

UnknownNoYes

N

Year Crash Data

Speed Reported as Factor in Motorcycle Crash

2004 2005 2006 20070

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

UnknownNoYes

Crash Data

N

Motorcycle Crash: Fatal vs. Nonfatal Logistic Regression Results

2004 - 2005

Factor Odds Ratio P-value

Impaired 2.0 0.0144

Rural 2.2 0.0003

41-50 years old 2.3 0.0040

61-70 years old 3.7 0.0040

Speeding 3.8 <.0001

Adjusting for above variables, gender and helmet use.

Codes Data

Motorcycle Crash: Injured vs. Non-Injured Logistic Regression Results

2004-2005Factor Odds Ratio P-value

Rural 1.2 0.020

31-40 years old 1.3 0.043

Speeding 1.3 0.008

51-60 years old 1.5 0.003

Male 1.5 0.006

Adjusting for above variables, impairment and helmet use.

Codes Data

Motorcycle Crash: TBI vs. Other Injury Logistic Regression Results

2004 -2005

Factor Odds Ratio P-value

51-60 years old 1.5 0.029

No Helmet 1.5 0.0002

Speeding 1.7 0.0001

Impaired 2.5 <.0001

Adjusting for above variables, gender and location.

Codes Data

Discussion

Summary• Motorcycle crash trend in Minnesota has been

relatively stable over the last 10 years.• Minnesota does have an increasing trend of

motorcycle crash injuries and deaths.• 40% of these injuries are TBIs.• Speed was the only factor that was significant

in all three outcomes.

What’s Next?

Contact Information

Leslie Seymour, MD, MPHEpidemiologist

Injury & Violence Prevention UnitMinnesota Department of Health

leslie.seymour@state.mn.us651-201-5489