trends in international higher education - aiecaiec.idp.com/uploads/pdf/pdfs aiec...
Post on 26-May-2018
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 1
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Trends in international higher
education
1
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Schedule Student decision-making
Drivers of international higher education mobility
Demographics
Economics
Domestic tertiary enrolments
International postgraduate forecasts
Outbound mobility
Inbound mobility
Postgraduate flows to Australia
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 2
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Schedule Student decision-making
Drivers of international higher education mobility
Demographics
Economics
Domestic tertiary enrolments
International postgraduate forecasts
Outbound mobility
Inbound mobility
Postgraduate flows to Australia
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Student Insight
Longitudinal survey, running since 2007
Over 180,000 responses collected globally
How? …with the cooperation of the British Council network and strategic partners
No destination country bias
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 3
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
What are the most important factors when choosing a host country for study abroad?
Quality of education
Career prospects
Internationally recognised qualifications
Opportunities for employment while studying
University reputation
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
From what countries are students interested in Australia as a study destination?
China
Bangladesh
Turkey
Pakistan
Thailand
India
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 4
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
What is your preferred subject area of study?
Business and administrative studies
Engineering and technology
Computer science
English language
Social studies (economics, politics, etc.)
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Schedule Student decision-making
Drivers of international higher education mobility
Demographics
Economics
Domestic tertiary enrolments
International postgraduate forecasts
Outbound mobility
Inbound mobility
Postgraduate flows to Australia
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 5
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Drivers of international higher education
Sustainable growth in an international student market is dependent on numerous factors
Demographics
Economics
Changes in political conditions
Growth in education provision
Digital technology
Cultural impact
Global workforce demands/skills gaps
Language
9
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Drivers of international student mobility:
Demographics
There exists a positive correlation
between university aged populations
and tertiary enrolments
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 6
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
World population prospects, the 2012 Revision
11
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Population aged 15-24, by major regions
12
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Northern America
Oceania
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 7
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Demographic trends to 2024:
Tertiary age (18-22) population growth
13
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Diverging demographic trends across origin markets
14
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 8
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission 15
Rural and urban population forecast
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
There exists a positive relationship between household wealth (GDP per capita) and tertiary
enrolments
Drivers of international student mobility:
Economics
16
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 9
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP)
All countries
ALGERIA
ARMENIA
AUSTRALIA
AUSTRIA
AZERBAIJAN
BELARUS BELGIUM
BENIN
BULGARIA
BURKINA FASOBURUNDI
CAMBODIA
CAMEROONCAPE VERDE
CHINA
COLOMBIA
CROATIA
CUBA
CZECH REPUBLIC
DENMARK
EL SALVADOR
ESTONIA
ETHIOPIA
FINLAND
FRANCE
GEORGIA
GHANA
GREECE
GUATEMALA
GUINEA
GUYANA
HUNGARY ICELAND
INDIA
INDONESIA
IRELANDISRAELITALYJAPAN
JORDANKAZAKHSTAN
LATVIA
LEBANON
LESOTHO
LITHUANIA
MADAGASCAR
MAURITIUS
MEXICO
MOROCCO
NAMIBIA
NETHERLANDSNEW ZEALAND NORWAY
PAKISTAN
PANAMAPERU
PHILIPPINES
POLANDPORTUGALROMANIA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SLOVAKIA
SLOVENIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SPAIN
SWAZILAND
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
TAJIKISTAN
THAILAND
TUNISIATURKEY
UKRAINEUNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
URUGUAY
UZBEKISTAN
VENEZUELA
YEMEN
y = 0.80x - 3.88
R2 = 0.77
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0
log(GDP per capita, PPP $)
log(e
nro
lmen
t ra
te)
A
l
l
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP)
Developed countries
AUSTRALIA
AUSTRIA
BELGIUM
CZECH REPUBLIC
DENMARK
ESTONIA
FINLAND
FRANCE
GREECE
HUNGARY ICELAND
IRELANDISRAEL
ITALY
JAPAN
LATVIA
NETHERLANDS
NEW ZEALAND NORWAY
POLAND
PORTUGAL
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SLOVENIA
SPAIN
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
y = -0.00x + 4.21
R2 = 0.00
3
4
5
2.2 2.3 2.4
log(GDP per capita, PPP $)
log(e
nro
lmen
t ra
te)
Emerging markets
ALGERIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
BELARUS
BENIN
BULGARIA
BURKINA FASOBURUNDI
CAMBODIA
CAMEROONCAPE VERDE
CHINA
COLOMBIA
CUBA
EL SALVADOR
ETHIOPIA
GEORGIA
GHANA
GUATEMALA
GUINEA
GUYANAINDIA
INDONESIA
JORDAN
KAZAKHSTANLEBANON
LESOTHOMADAGASCAR
MAURITIUS
MEXICO
MOROCCO
NAMIBIAPAKISTAN
PANAMAPERU
PHILIPPINES
ROMANIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SWAZILAND
TAJIKISTAN
THAILAND
TUNISIATURKEY
UKRAINE
URUGUAY
UZBEKISTAN
VENEZUELA
YEMEN
y = 7.60x - 13.24
R2 = 0.68
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
log(GDP per capita, PPP $)
log(e
nro
lmen
t ra
te)
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 10
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP)
y = 0.1693ln(x) - 1.1472R² = 0.5378
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
Gro
ss t
ert
iary
en
rolm
en
t ra
tio
Nominal PPP US$ GDP per capita
PPP GDP per capita and tertiary enrolment ratio (2009)
Source: Haver Analytics, Oxford Economics, UNESCO
South Korea
UAE
Ukraine
Singapore
Botswana
Trinidad & Tobago
USGreece
Mexico & Malaysia
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
World GDP growth (2002-2024)
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 11
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Economics: GDP per capita growth (2013-2024)
21
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Schedule Student decision-making
Drivers of international higher education mobility
Demographics
Economics
Domestic tertiary enrolments
International postgraduate forecasts
Outbound mobility
Inbound mobility
Postgraduate flows to Australia
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 12
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Top tertiary enrolments (2012)
China
India
United States
Russia
Top tertiary enrolments (2024)
India
China
United States
Indonesia
Tertiary enrolment forecast
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Forecasted tertiary enrolments to 2024
24
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 13
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Annual average growth in tertiary enrolments
Nigeria 6.4%
Indonesia 5.3%
Pakistan 5.2%
India 4.5%
Saudi Arabia 3.4%
Mexico 2.6%
Turkey 1.3%
Malaysia 1.3%
Spain 1.3%
France 1.3%
China 1.1%
United States 0.6%
Vietnam 0.4%
Canada 0.1%
Italy -0.2%
Thailand -0.2%
Iran -0.4%
Germany -0.6%
Greece -0.9%
Russian Federation -1.7%
Poland -2.1%
Republic of Korea -2.4%
Taiwan -2.5%
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Schedule Student decision-making
Drivers of international higher education mobility
Demographics
Economics
Domestic tertiary enrolments
International postgraduate forecasts
Outbound mobility
Inbound mobility
Postgraduate flows to Australia
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 14
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Global student mobility, 2014
27
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Postgraduate student mobility trends to
2024
28
Research aim:
Forecast the landscape
for postgraduate
mobility to 2024 by
studying demographic
and economic drivers
of demand
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 15
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Model market coverage
29
v
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Highest number of outbound postgraduates
2012
China
India
Korea
Saudi Arabia
United States
Taiwan
Canada
Iran
France
Nigeria
2024 China
India
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
United States
Iran
Korea
Pakistan
Indonesia
Vietnam
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 16
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Outbound postgraduates to selected destinations
31
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
China and India growth index (2012 = 100)
32
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 17
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Forecasted inbound postgraduate flows to 2024
33
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Annual average change in inbound postgraduates
Change (% annual ave.) 2007 - 2012
Change (% annual ave.) 2012 - 2024
Australia 2.4% 4.1%
Canada 6.8% 4.1%
United States 2.9% 4.0%
Germany 3.4% 3.6%
United Kingdom 4.1% 3.5%
Japan 5.4% 1.6%
34
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 18
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Inbound PG flows attributable to China and India
35
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Top five
bilateral
flows to
2024
36
Seven of the
top ten
largest
bilateral
flows will be
from China
or India to
host
destinations
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 19
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Schedule Student decision-making
Drivers of international higher education mobility
Demographics
Economics
Domestic tertiary enrolments
International postgraduate forecasts
Outbound mobility
Inbound mobility
Postgraduate flows to Australia
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Postgraduate flows to Australia to 2024
38
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 20
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Key findings of postgraduate research
The US will continue to be the largest postgraduate host destination to 2024, though Canada and Australia will grow at a quicker pace
India and China to fuel growth in outbound postgraduates
Particular destination markets will be heavily dependent on these China and India
Significant postgraduate growth in other key nations: Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam
39
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
All generalisations are false, including this one. Alexander Chase, journalist
10/10/2014
Australian International Education Conference 2014
www.aiec.idp.com 21
vv
EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission
Thank you!
Download Postgraduate student mobility trends to
2024 for free on our website:
https://ei.britishcouncil.org
41
top related