transport vs. transmission - cmu · 2021. 4. 7. · joule bergerson ceicseminar03110302.ppt author:...

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Transport vs. Transmission:

Comparative Hybrid LCA

Joule BergersonCEIC SeminarTuesday March 11th 2003

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OverviewPolicy Problem: Should energy be transported

from the source to the demand as fuel or electricity?

¨ Importance of Research¨ Method¨ Economic Results¨ Environmental Results¨ Implications of Research

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US Electricity Breakdown (% based on generation)

Coal52%

Nuclear20%

Gas16%

Hydro7%

Oil3%

Other2%

US DOE 2001

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US Coal Supply

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Life Cycle of Coal-Fired Electricity

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Input Requirements for Model

n Coal type (heating value, sulfur content, cost)

n Existing Rail?n Existing Transmission?n Distancen Terrainn Grade Crossings

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Structure of Analysis

1. Build base cases2. Verify assumptions3. Identify and estimate all costs for each case4. Categorize costs in eiolca sectors5. Estimate environmental emissions (eiolca)6. Supplement emissions estimates with specific

data for sensitive parameters

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Price of Coal • Mine mouth $5 / ton• Texas $23 / ton

• 350 million tons of coal from WY / year• 30% of US coal production in Powder River Basin

• 30,000 unit trains per year

http://nasc.uwyo.edu/coal/WyomingCoal/customers.asp

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Base Case Assumptions¨ Power Plants identical (SUPC – 40% efficiency, 75%

capacity factor) ¨ 1000 MW (transmission -more for 14% losses)¨ Approximately 1000 miles from PRB to TX¨ No siting difficulties ¨ Capital

n Rail – minimal new track capacity, new trainsn Transmission – new HVDC lines, substationsn Amortized over life of investment

(cost of capital 8%)

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Base Case Economic Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Capital O&M Fuel/Coal Externalities Total

An

nu

al C

ost

($m

illio

n)

Rail Transmission

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Scenario: New Rail Construction

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 5 10 15 20

Percent of System Requiring New Rail (%)

An

nu

al C

ost

($ m

illio

n)

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Scenario: Grade Crossings

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

0 5 10 15 20

Percent of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)

An

nu

al C

ost

($ m

illio

n)

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Scenario Analysis - Other

as little as $5/ton$0 Carbon Tax

600 - 700 miles1000 milesDistance

3-4%8%Cost of Capital

$6-7/gallon$0.9/gallonFuel Price

Break Even Value Base CaseScenario

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Size of Project

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6.6 9.6 19 120 230

Delivered Power (million MWh)

Ann

ual C

ost (

$ m

illio

n)

Rail Transmission

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Environmental Emissions (30 years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

SO2 CO NO2 VOC PM10 GWP(millions

MT CO2e)

Thou

sand

sE

mis

sio

ns

MT

Rail Transmission

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Environmental Externalities (Social cost calculated for each emission)

0

50

100

150

200

Base Case Low Social CostEstimates

Mean Social CostEstimates

High Social CostEstimates

To

tal A

nn

ual

Co

st ($

mill

ion

)

Rail Transmission

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Annual Energy ComparisonCO2

Coal - Base

(million tons)

Diesel (million gallons)

Coal (BTU)

Diesel (BTU) Total BTU

(million tons)

Rail 3.3 9.2 5.60E+13 1.30E+12 5.80E+13 8.7 84

Transmission 3.9 - 6.70E+13 - 6.70E+13 9.7 20

Rail - 9.2 - 1.30E+12 1.30E+12 0.4 8.3

Transmission 0.61 - 1.00E+13 - 1.00E+13 1.3 3.1

Fuel$

millions spent on fuel

Energy

Total Power Plant + Transport/TransmitJust energy to transport /transmit

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

SO2 CO NO2 VOC PM10 GWP (millionsMT CO2e)

Thousa

nds

Em

issi

on

s M

T

Rail Transmission

Environmental Emissions – 7% Losses

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Other Considerations

n Coal to Methane or Hydrogenn Coal Slurry Pipelinen AC Transmissionn High Temperature Superconductorsn Barge

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Conclusions

n From the current case there is no economic/environmental gain in switching to minemouth generation¨ Some scenarios change this result

n Cost and environmental emissions from existing system are significant¨ Other methods of transporting energy should be

investigated

n Contribution is made from developing a method to compare alternative transport/transmission scenarios in terms of economic and environmental impact

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Policy Implicationsn New rail and transmission being consideredn Building new generation¨ Existing rail¨ Distance¨ Environmental Emissions

n Reliabilityn Watern Equity

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Questions…