transport vs. transmission - cmu · 2021. 4. 7. · joule bergerson ceicseminar03110302.ppt author:...
TRANSCRIPT
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Transport vs. Transmission:
Comparative Hybrid LCA
Joule BergersonCEIC SeminarTuesday March 11th 2003
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OverviewPolicy Problem: Should energy be transported
from the source to the demand as fuel or electricity?
¨ Importance of Research¨ Method¨ Economic Results¨ Environmental Results¨ Implications of Research
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US Electricity Breakdown (% based on generation)
Coal52%
Nuclear20%
Gas16%
Hydro7%
Oil3%
Other2%
US DOE 2001
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US Coal Supply
5
6
Life Cycle of Coal-Fired Electricity
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Input Requirements for Model
n Coal type (heating value, sulfur content, cost)
n Existing Rail?n Existing Transmission?n Distancen Terrainn Grade Crossings
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Structure of Analysis
1. Build base cases2. Verify assumptions3. Identify and estimate all costs for each case4. Categorize costs in eiolca sectors5. Estimate environmental emissions (eiolca)6. Supplement emissions estimates with specific
data for sensitive parameters
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Price of Coal • Mine mouth $5 / ton• Texas $23 / ton
• 350 million tons of coal from WY / year• 30% of US coal production in Powder River Basin
• 30,000 unit trains per year
http://nasc.uwyo.edu/coal/WyomingCoal/customers.asp
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Base Case Assumptions¨ Power Plants identical (SUPC – 40% efficiency, 75%
capacity factor) ¨ 1000 MW (transmission -more for 14% losses)¨ Approximately 1000 miles from PRB to TX¨ No siting difficulties ¨ Capital
n Rail – minimal new track capacity, new trainsn Transmission – new HVDC lines, substationsn Amortized over life of investment
(cost of capital 8%)
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Base Case Economic Results
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Capital O&M Fuel/Coal Externalities Total
An
nu
al C
ost
($m
illio
n)
Rail Transmission
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Scenario: New Rail Construction
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 5 10 15 20
Percent of System Requiring New Rail (%)
An
nu
al C
ost
($ m
illio
n)
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Scenario: Grade Crossings
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
0 5 10 15 20
Percent of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)
An
nu
al C
ost
($ m
illio
n)
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Scenario Analysis - Other
as little as $5/ton$0 Carbon Tax
600 - 700 miles1000 milesDistance
3-4%8%Cost of Capital
$6-7/gallon$0.9/gallonFuel Price
Break Even Value Base CaseScenario
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Size of Project
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6.6 9.6 19 120 230
Delivered Power (million MWh)
Ann
ual C
ost (
$ m
illio
n)
Rail Transmission
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Environmental Emissions (30 years)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SO2 CO NO2 VOC PM10 GWP(millions
MT CO2e)
Thou
sand
sE
mis
sio
ns
MT
Rail Transmission
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Environmental Externalities (Social cost calculated for each emission)
0
50
100
150
200
Base Case Low Social CostEstimates
Mean Social CostEstimates
High Social CostEstimates
To
tal A
nn
ual
Co
st ($
mill
ion
)
Rail Transmission
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Annual Energy ComparisonCO2
Coal - Base
(million tons)
Diesel (million gallons)
Coal (BTU)
Diesel (BTU) Total BTU
(million tons)
Rail 3.3 9.2 5.60E+13 1.30E+12 5.80E+13 8.7 84
Transmission 3.9 - 6.70E+13 - 6.70E+13 9.7 20
Rail - 9.2 - 1.30E+12 1.30E+12 0.4 8.3
Transmission 0.61 - 1.00E+13 - 1.00E+13 1.3 3.1
Fuel$
millions spent on fuel
Energy
Total Power Plant + Transport/TransmitJust energy to transport /transmit
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SO2 CO NO2 VOC PM10 GWP (millionsMT CO2e)
Thousa
nds
Em
issi
on
s M
T
Rail Transmission
Environmental Emissions – 7% Losses
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Other Considerations
n Coal to Methane or Hydrogenn Coal Slurry Pipelinen AC Transmissionn High Temperature Superconductorsn Barge
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Conclusions
n From the current case there is no economic/environmental gain in switching to minemouth generation¨ Some scenarios change this result
n Cost and environmental emissions from existing system are significant¨ Other methods of transporting energy should be
investigated
n Contribution is made from developing a method to compare alternative transport/transmission scenarios in terms of economic and environmental impact
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Policy Implicationsn New rail and transmission being consideredn Building new generation¨ Existing rail¨ Distance¨ Environmental Emissions
n Reliabilityn Watern Equity
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Questions…