thurs.9/5/13 bellringer – types of growth notes: linear vs. exponential hault types of graphs...

Thurs.9/5/13

• Bellringer – Types of Growth

• Notes: Linear vs. Exponential HAULT Types of Graphs

• Start World Population Graphs

Thurs.9/5/13

• Bellringer – Types of Growth

• Notes: Linear vs. Exponential HAULT Types of Graphs

• Start World Population Graphs• HW: World Population Graphs

$ Types of Growth $

• You just got a new job working at the Lincoln Park Zoo. The job is temporary, only for the three weeks.

• Your boss gives you two options of how to be paid, which do you choose?

• Option 1: He will give you $50 for the first day of work, and increase your salary by $50 each day for the whole 3 weeks.

Example: $50, $100, $150, $200

• Option 2: He will give you one dime for the first day of work and double it each day for the whole 3 weeks.

Example: $0.10, $0.20, $0.40, $0.80

• Explain which pay scale you will pick and why?

1 bacterium at the beginning

bacteria after 30 minutes

bacteria after 1 hour

bacteria after 1 hour and 30 minutes

bacteria after 2 hours

bacteria after 2 hours and 30 minutes

bacteria after 3 hours

bacteria after 3 hours and 30 minutes

bacteria after 4 hours

bacteria after 4 hours and 30 minutes

bacteria after 5 hours

2

4

8

16

32

64

128

256

512

1024

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Exponential Growth• Exponential growth – occurs in proportion to the

current total

100 bacterium at the beginning

120 bacteria after 30 minutes

140 bacteria after 1 hour

160 bacteria after 1 hour and 30 minutes

180 bacteria after 2 hours

200 bacteria after 2 hours and 30 minutes

220 bacteria after 3 hours

240 bacteria after 3 hours and 30 minutes

260 bacteria after 4 hours

280 bacteria after 4 hours and 30 minutes

300 bacteria after 5 hours

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Linear Growth• Linear growth – Growth continues at the same

rate, regardless of the population

Logistic growth – occurs when (exponential) growth is slowed by

limiting factors

Populations can grow exponentially, but growth is usually limited by resources

– Birth rate = death rate– Population size is stable

Carrying capacity – The number of individuals that a particular environment can support

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

The Limits to Growth (CARRYING CAPACITY)

Comparison:Exponential vs. Logistic

Carrying capacity

Exponential growth

Logistic growth

Types of Graphs

• 3 Very common types of graphs… but when do we use them??

. . . a Bar Graph.

Bar graphs are used to compare things between different groups or categories.

. . . a Line graph.

•Line graphs are used to track changes over short and long periods of time.

•Line graphs can also be used to compare changes over the same period of time for more than one group.

Different Kinds: Line Graphs

• Line Graph: Shows how the value of something changes over time

• Examples:– Plant growth over time– Amount of swears per

conversation

. . . a Pie Chart.

•Pie charts are best to use when you are trying to compare parts of a whole (or percentages). They do not show changes over time.

Different Kinds: Pie Charts

• Pie Chart: Shows how much each part is of a whole

• Examples:– Hours spent a day doing an

activity– How much is/is not Pac Man

H.A.U.L.T.• H – Header• A – Axis Label• U – Units• L – Legend• T - Trend

Fill in the Blanks

• H ______________• A ______________• U ______________• L ______________• T ______________

Lynx and Hare Populations 1850-1950

______________

Time to Graph World Population!!

• This population graph shows CHANGE OVER TIME… What type of graph will it be?

9/6/13 5th/6th

• Bellringer: HAULT

• World Population Growth Video

• Complete Population Graph (Packet)

• Family Demographic Data (HW)

9/6/13 4th • Bellringer: H.A.U.L.T.

• World Population Growth Video

• Human Population Graph Packet… (Set up Graph Axis Correctly!!!)

• Complete Packet

• Family Demographic Data (HW)

Set up your bellringer like this…

H ______________A ______________U ______________L ______________T ______________

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

U.S.A. – Last 80 years

Population Change (Outline)

• I. Population Equations

• II. Population Definitions

• III. Stages of Demographic Transition

9/9/13 4th

• Bellringer: 7 billion people

• World Population Video

• Finish Graphing??

• Population Notes

9/9/13 5th/6th

• Bellringer: 7 billion people

• Turn in Family Demographic Info & World Population Graph/Reading

• Population Growth Notes

• Population Pyramids

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

WORLD POPULATION – PAST 12,000 YEARS

7 Billion People

• Most of Human history occurred with less than a billion people on earth. In the past 100 years, population has exponentially grown to over seven billion people.

• What factors do you think have led to the extreme population growth over the past 100 years?

9/11/13 4th

• Bellringer: Predictions

• Population Growth Notes

• Continue working on Family Demographic Project

• Project is due Friday!

Predictions

Look at your predictions from yesterday.

Do you appear to be right? Explain why you think so or don’t think so.

(if you were absent yesterday, make predictions about our family demographic changes over the past 4 generations)

Population on an island (Easier)

• Change in Pop. (Δ) = Births(B) – Deaths(D)

•Δ = B -D

Monkey Island – Puerto Rico

2010 Population Change

• In 2010, 33 monkeys were born and 29 monkeys died

• Δ = B -D• Δ = 33-29• Δ = + 4

2009 Population Change

• In 2009, when a tropical storm hit Monkey Island, 29 monkeys were born and 108 monkeys died.

• What was the change in population?

• Births (29) – Deaths (108) = -79

Population Change Mainland(Harder)

• Change in Pop. (Δ) = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

Δ = (B + I) – (D + E)

Canada Geese populations in Chicago

Figure 53.3

Births Deaths

Immigration Emigration

Births and immigrationadd individuals toa population.

Deaths and emigrationremove individualsfrom a population.

Canada Geese near the North Pond (2010)

• 38 geese were born• 29 geese died• 60 immigrated (came to North Pond)• 45 emigrated (left North Pond)

• Δ = (B + I) – (D + E)• Δ = (38 +60) – (29 + 45)• Δ = +24

Canada Geese in Chicago (2010)

• 700 geese were born• 550 geese died• 210 immigrated (came to Chicago)• 140 emigrated (left Chicago.)

• Δ = (B + I) – (D + E)• (700 + 210) – (550 + 140) =

9/12/13 4th

• Bellringer: LPHS Population Change

• Continue Population Growth Notes

• Family demographic PROJECT Due Tomorrow!• Field Trip form & $5 due tomorrow

LPHS Population Change

• Δ = (B + I) – (D + E)

• 500 freshman entered the school (born)• 400 seniors graduated (died)• 100 students transferred in (immigrated)• 50 students transferred out (emigrated)

What is the population change of LPHS? (SHOW YOUR WORK!!!)

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Estimate of the average number of children a woman will have during childbearing years

3.1 children in developing countries1.6 Children in developed countries

Fertility Rate (Birth Rate)

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Lower Fertility Rates in U.S.A. Because

1) widespread use of birth control2) More women in college and

workforce, starting families later3) Social attitudes favor small families4) Increased costs of raising a child5) Availability of legal abortion

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

The average number of deaths per 1000 people, per year.

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Less Mortality (Death) rates because…

1) Modern medicine (Antibiotics and vaccines)

2) Improved methods of sanitation 3) Increase in proper personal hygiene

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Lower Birth Rates and lower Death Rates in the USA means that population growth is slowing down.

In fact, most of our population growth comes from immigration.

So where is world population growth currently coming from??

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More & Less Developed Countries

Billions

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Fertility Trends

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

N aturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

(Based on Western European & North American History)

Demographic Transition

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Stage 1: Preindustrial Society

High and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, High Infant Mortality

Stages in Demographic Transition Theory

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Stage 2: Early Industrial Society

high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Stage 3: Late Industrial Society

Low death rateFalling birth rateStill population growth (less than stage 2)

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Stage 4: Post Industrial Society Low birth and death rates Low population growth

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Stage 1 – Poor Health Care Stage 2 – Better diet and public healthStage 3 – similar to Stage 2Stage 4 – Most deaths from old age

Shifting Causes of Death

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Image Activity Bank

9/10/13 (all)

• Bellringer – Family Demographics Predictions

• Start Analyzing Family Demographic Data

Eco ClUB!!!!

• Every Wednesday, 4pm #127 (Starting 9/11/13)

• Open to EVERYONE

• Earn Service Learning Hours

• Make a positive impact on the environment of our school and community

Family Demographics PredictionsPredict the trend (changes) over the past four generations. Make predictions in order from past to present.

Birthplace

Most Recent Residence

# of Siblings

Age at First Reproduction

9/11/13 5th 6th

• Bellringer: 4 Stages of Demographic Transition

• Introduction to Population Pyramids

• Continue working on Family Demographic Project

• Project is due Friday!

• Reminder: Eco Club Today / Field Trip Tuesday

4 Stages of Demographic Transition

• From our notes Monday… Describe the following

(1) What factors lead to high birth rates AND high death rates when countries are in stage 1?

(2) What factors lead to low birth rates AND low death rates when countries are in stage 4?

(3) Why does most population growth occur in stage 2-3?

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

(Based on Western European & North American History)

Demographic Transition

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Population Pyramids

A (horizontal) bar graph used to show age and sex distribution of a specific population

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Let’s HAULT so we know what were looking at!

KenyaRapid growth

Male Female

Percentage of population

Primary reproductive ages

United StatesSlow growth

Female

Percentage of population

ItalyZero growth/decrease

Male Female

Percentage of population

Male

A B C

1) Which population would grow the fastest?

3) Which would be at the greatest risk of extinction?

2) Which would be the most stable?

9/12/13

• Bellringer: Population Pyramids

• Go to FB256 – Population Pyramid Website• We will finish page 2 in class tomorrow…

• Family Demographic Due Tomorrow• Quiz Tomorrow on 4 Stages of Demographic Transition • Field Trip Form & $5 due tomorrow!

Population Pyramid

1) What two categories can be read on a population pyramid

2) How do you know the population on the right is “Stable”

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

Natural Increase

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

• Population growth rates differ by region

How can you look at this chart and know Afghanistan is increasing in population size?

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Population Density

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

World Population Video

• First Time = Watch and Observe

• Second Time = Notes and Written Feedback

2,000 years ago...

... the world's population was around 300 million people.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-01.html

A.D. 0

1,000 years later...

...the population had risen by as little as 10 million.

A.D. 1000

800 years later...

...the population had reached one billion people.

1800

127 years later...

...the two-billionth baby was born.

1927

33 years later...

... the global population reached three billion, and in the late 1960s the growth rate hit an all-time peak of 2.1% per year.

1960

1974 14 years later...

... the four-billionth baby was born.

13 years later...

...the five-billionth baby was born.

1987

12 years later...

...around October 12, 1999, the six-billionth baby arrived.

1999

Roughly 40 years from now

The world’s population will likely reach nine billion people. Nearly all of this growth will take place in developing countries, where the demand for food and water already outstrips supplies.

2050

USA BC

D E

G HF

Tuesday9/10

• Bellringer – Demographic Data Predictions

• Compile class data from Family Demographic Project

Demographic Data Predictions(Predict the class average, not just your family)

• 1) How has # of siblings changed in the past 4 generations and why?

• 2) How has birthplace changed in the past 4 generations and why?

• 3) How has Age at First Reproduction changed in the past 4 generations and why?

Wednesday 9/11

• Bellringer: Urban vs. Rural Election Results

• Move from family demo into Cemetery Lab?

Using your knowledge of the urban/rural divide, explain how Obama won 60% of the vote in Illinois.

2008

2012

QUIZ #1 -R

• In a population of polar bears with no migration, 35 were born and 49 died. Set up the correct equation and write down the total population change.

Quiz #2

• Tell me the population change of this small town in Illinois.

• 300 babies were born• 250 people died• 10 people immigrated (i = in)• 25 people emmigrated (e = exit)

Quiz #3

• State 2 reasons why fertility rate has decreased and 2 reasons why mortality rate has decreased in the U.S.A.

Quiz #4• According to the Population

Density map, most of the world is uninhabited by people. Why is there a population crisis if most of the world is without people?

Quiz #1 -H

• Tell me the population change of this small town in Illinois.

• 325 babies were born• 250 people died• 14 people immigrated• 29 people emmigrated

Quiz #2

• State 3 reasons why fertility rate has decreased and 2 reasons why mortality rate has decreased in the U.S.A.

Quiz #3• According to the Population

Density map, most of the world is uninhabited by people. Why is there a population crisis if most of the world is without people?

Quiz #4

• Mozambique is in Stage 2 of its demographic transition. Explain if the population is increasing or decreasing, citing fertility rate and mortality rate in your answer.

3:2:1

• After reading the article, write down…

• 3 things you learned (main ideas)• 2 interesting facts • 1 question you now have

Explain what has happened to Philadelphia’s population over the past 4 years

Birth and Death rates in Philadelphia2008 to 2011

2008 2009 2010 2011

Birth Rate 11.2 7.3 5.3 5.2

Death Rate 9.1 10.6 10.6 10.7