thomas boermans, unit manager built environment strategies brussels, 29 th november 2011 economic...

Thomas Boermans, Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies

Brussels, 29th November 2011

Economic effects of investing in energy efficiency in buildings - the BEAM² ModelEC WORKSHOP, COHESION POLICY INVESTING IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS

© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

Agenda

Energy efficiency in buildings – background

Baltic Energy Efficiency Network (BEEN)

Economic impacts of EE in buildings at EU level

Some recommendations

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The buildings sector:significant and cost effective potential

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Mt CO2eq

€ /

t C

O2eq

Source: Ecofys, project SERPEC-CC for European Commission DG-Environment, 2009

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

The (political) vision

Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

The comitology process

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,

Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy

see also www.bpie.eu

TOTAL COSTS

€ /m2

kWh/m2

CO2 costs

Energy costs

Other energy related construction costs

Maintenance costs

Installed appliances invest.

Building envelope investments

Package

1

23 4

5

6

heating

cooling

ventilation

lighting

……..

TOTAL COSTS

€ /m2

kWh/m2

CO2 costs

Energy costs

Other energy related construction costs

Maintenance costs

Installed appliances invest.

Building envelope investments

Package

1

23 4

5

6

heating

cooling

ventilation

lighting

……..

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Timelines – new buildings

2010 2020 20XX

Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy ???

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Timelines - retrofit

2010 20XX 20YY

Cost optimal requirements deep renovation ? ???

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN

• Assessment of current status of energy efficient refurbishments in Baltic sea region

• Assessment of energy- and CO2 saving potentials & job effects

• Development of strategies & instruments to promote energy efficient refurbishment

• focus on multi-storey housing built 1950 - 1990.

• Implementation of three best practice projects

client: Berlin Senate, BMVBS, EU

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

BEAM²

© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

BEAM²

© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

Reference Scenario Germany

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

kt/a

Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only

"-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings)

Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%

-40% Emission Saving Target

CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010

from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates

(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.

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Financing retrofit – some numbers

Example for timeframe 2010 to 2020 for EU27

• Increase retrofit rate from 1,7 % p.a. (BAU) to 2,8%

• Improved ambition level (in the area of cost optimality)

• Estimated results*• Additional energy related investment: 30 billion € p.a.• Total energy related investment: 65 billion € p.a.• Total invest (energy and non-energy): 100 billion € p.a.

(turnover building industry in 2009: 1,2 trillion EURO)• Negative CO2 abatement costs

* based on research done by Ecofys in the framework of the impact assessment of the

EPBD recast / energy saving action plan (using BEAM²)

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

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Different renovation tracks – indicative only

2010 20502020 2030 2040

track 1

track 2

Track 1: fast renovation: (very) high speed, average ambition level

Track 2: deep renovation: average speed, (very) high ambition level

CO

2 –

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issi

ons

EU

build

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tock

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

© ECOFYS | |

Enabling factors for retrofit (examples)

Political/Legal

• review (EU/national) definitions of major renovation, see

www.eceee.org/press/Extending_EE_requirements/

• define ambition level for “deep renovation”

• secure balance of interests in investor user conflict

Financial/fiscal

• provide soft loans at reduced interest rates and longer loan

duration (e.g. 20 years, state guarantees)

• fiscal instruments (e.g. reduced VAT)

Information

• information/realisation campaigns

• ensure proper training and capacity building

29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans

Thomas Boermans

Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies

E: t. boermans@ecofys.com

T: +49 221 270 70-151

W: www.ecofys.com