the world did not end in q1forex reserves of $3.6trn •gov’t debt of 17% gdp • external debt of...
Post on 08-Aug-2020
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The World Did Not End in Q1
Sam Wilkin
Senior Advisor, Business Research
Blog: www.samwilkin.com
06.2015
1
2
3
4
5
Exports to Russia: 10% of Finnish
exports; 4% of Finnish GDP
6
1. Global Economic Weather Report
2. Economic Outlook
Europe
Grexit
US
China
Russia/Ukraine
7
Global Economic Growth Heat Map – 1993
Source: IMF
8
Global Economic Growth Heat Map – 2004
Source: IMF
9
Global Economic Growth Heat Map – 2009
Source: IMF
10
Global Economic Growth Heat Map – 2010
Source: IMF
11
Global Economic Growth Heat Map – 2014
Source: IMF
12
Global Economic Growth Heat Map – 2015
Source: IMF
13
Next up:
Europe Outlook
What happens if Greece exits?
China Outlook
US Outlook
Russia/Ukraine Outlook
14
1. Global Economic Weather Report
2. Economic Outlook
Europe
Grexit
US
China
Russia/Ukraine
15
16
17
18
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Haver Analytics
% year
Eurozone: Lending to non-financial corporations
19
20
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: Haver Analytics
% balance % year
Retail sales* (RHS)
Consumer confidence
(LHS)
Eurozone: Consumer confidence & retail sales
*3 month moving average
21
22
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Eurozone: Industrial new orders
23
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash holdings of non-financial corporations
% of GDP
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
France
Germany
UK
24
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
% quarter
Source: Oxford Economics
Forecast
Eurozone: GDP
% quarter-on-quarter (LHS)
% year-on-year (RHS)
% year
25
RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL FAMIGLIE
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
20
40
60
80
100
StatiUniti
Zona euro
Regno Unito
RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL FAMIGLIE
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
20
40
60
80
100
Italia
FranciaGermania
Spagna
Household Debt (%GDP) Household Debt (%GDP)
Source: Oxford Economics
UK
US
EurozoneGermany
Spain
France
Italy
26
RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL AZIENDE*
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
50
100
150
200
Stati Uniti
Zona euro
RegnoUnito
* Settore non-finanziario
RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL AZIENDE*
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
50
100
150
200
Francia
Germania
Spagna
* Settore non-finanziario.
Italia
Corporate Debt (%GDP) Corporate Debt (%GDP)
Source: Oxford Economics
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
Eurozone
UK
US
27
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
% quarter
Source: Oxford Economics
Forecast
Eurozone: GDP
% quarter-on-quarter (LHS)
% year-on-year (RHS)
% year
28
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2000=100
Source: Oxford Economics
Unit labour costs
France
Germany
Italy
Greece
Spain
Forecast
29
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Italy
Finland
Greece
Austria
Germany
Beligum
Eurozone
Neth
France
Portugal
Spain
Slovakia
Ireland
Productivity growth
2008-14,%Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
30
-1 0 1 2 3 4
CyprusGreeceFinland
ItalyAustria
BelgiumFrance
EuroZonePortugal
NetherlandsGermanySloveniaEstonia
LuxembourgMalta
SpainSlovakia
Ireland
GDP growth forecast for 2015
% yearSource: Oxford Economics
31
1. Global Economic Weather Report
2. Economic Outlook
Europe
Grexit
US
China
Russia/Ukraine
32
Germany and other AAA
countries
Eurozone periphery
states
2009-
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Greece Spain
Portugal Ireland
Italy
Eurozone: Credit spreads% spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Italy
Italy
Eurozone: Credit spreads% spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
2012
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Greece Spain
Portugal Ireland
Italy
Eurozone: Credit spreads% spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
26.7.12: Draghi's
"Whatever it takes"
2014
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Italy
Italy
Eurozone: Credit spreads% spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
26.7.12: Draghi's
"Whatever it takes"
2014
37
Now!
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Greece Spain
Portugal Ireland
Italy
Eurozone: Credit spreads% spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Greek
Elections
26.7.12: Draghi's
"Whatever it takes"
Now!
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Italy
Italy
Eurozone: Credit spreads% spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Greek
Elections
26.7.12: Draghi's
"Whatever it takes"
Germany and other AAA
countries
Greece
Now!
40
Implicit views of markets based on bond prices:
1. Greece and EU reach agreement 78%
2. Agreement stays on track 12-18 months 67%
3. Capital controls 48%
4. Greek exit 38%Source: Oxford Economics
41
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Spain Greece Ireland
Cyprus Portugal
Retail deposits at Eurozone banks*% annual growth
* Non-MFIs excluding central governmentSource : Oxford Economics/ECB
42
Eurozone bank lending to Greece
In 2008: €175bn
In 2014: €42bn(0.5% of German GDP)
(Eurozone gov’t lending to Greece: €250bn)
43
44
Greek exit scenario
45
46
Greek exit scenario
47
1. Global Economic Weather Report
2. Economic Outlook
Europe
Grexit
US
China
Russia/Ukraine
48
49
50
51
52
53
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US, UK & Eurozone: Corporate loan growth
% year
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
US loans inc. commercial real estate
Eurozone loans to PNFCs
UK loans to PNFCs
54
55
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1985=100
Consumer confidenceConference Board
Source: Conference Board, University of Michigan/Haver Analytics
US: Consumer attitudes
Consumer sentimentUniversity of Michigan
56
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: BLS, Oxford Economics
% year
Real
Nominal
US: Real wage rate
57
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
US: Relative unit labour costs2008=100
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Forecast
58
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Japan UK Germany US
Manufacturing InvestmentIndex: 2007 = 100
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
59
60
61
62
63
64
1. Global Economic Weather Report
2. Economic Outlook
Europe
Grexit
US
China
Russia/Ukraine
65
66
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Excluding China Including China
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
World: Broad money
% year
67
68
69
70
71
China’s…
• Forex reserves of $3.6trn
• Gov’t debt of 17% GDP
• External debt of 9% GDP
= bailoutability
72
73
Economic Growth Forecast for China (%)
About 10%
About 6%
74
1. Global Economic Weather Report
2. Economic Outlook
Europe
Grexit
US
China
Russia/Ukraine
75
Source: nypost.com
76 Source: abcnews.com
77 Source: taringa.net
78 Source: businessinsider.com
Increase in
income per
person over
the past 30
years in the
world’s major
oil-rich
nations*
* Oil revenues
are more than
10% of
economic
output
* Population of
three million
people or more
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators11
Increase in
income per
person over
the past 30
years in the
world’s major
oil-rich
nations*
* Oil revenues
are more than
10% of
economic
output
* Population of
three million
people or more
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators12
6th-best performance
out of 163 countries
in the world
153 out of 163
162 out of 163
157 out of 163
A barrier to manufacturing (especially exports)
A barrier to democracy
A target in war
‘Rental income’: control more valuable than creation
13
Increase in
income per
person over
the past 30
years in the
world’s major
oil-rich
nations*
* Oil revenues
are more than
10% of
economic
output
* Population of
three million
people or more
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators11
Russia
+$3,600 since 1998
A class by itself?
Or, will the resource curse
return?
83
Economic Growth Forecast for Russia (%)
84
85
86
Conclusion
87
OVERALL SUMMARY
Eurozone• Market impacts of brinksmanship ended in 2012
• But people & companies are deleveraging
• Hence ‘new normal growth’, with some bright spots
US• Deleveraging largely complete. Q1 slowdown a one-off
• Hence return to growth; but will it be ‘old normal’?
China• No longer the world’s credit engine. ‘New normal’ is 6%
per annum. And, might crash
Russia• Revenge of the resource curse. ‘New normal’ is uncertain
88
89
The World Did Not End in Q1
Sam Wilkin
Senior Advisor, Business Research
Blog: www.samwilkin.com
06.2015
top related