the way ahead · the way ahead 1 dr. ed smith +1-703-465-3319 boeing effects-based operations…...

1The Way AheadThe Way AheadDr. Ed Smith+1-703-465-3319

Boeing

EffectsEffects--Based Operations…Based Operations…

The Way AheadThe Way Ahead

2

OutlineOutline

1. Three why’s and a what2. Operations in the Cognitive Domain and

Beyond3. Complexity4. Implications for Network Centric Operations5. Conclusion: Onward to Second Generation

Network Centric Operations

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Great Means

Great Will

Great Means

Great Willvs.

Attrition-based Warfare:Wearing Down the Physical Capacity for War

1. Three Why’s and a What1. Three Why’s and a What

Symmetric, State-to-State Conflict

Why #1: The Challenge of Asymmetric Niche Competitors

Opponents have similar means and will

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Little Means

Great Will

Great Means

Little Will ?

vs.

Large Power Challenger

Opponents have unequal means and will

Asymmetric Niche CompetitionAsymmetric Niche Competition

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Little Means

Great Will

Great Means

Little Will ?

vs.

Large Power Challenger

Opponents have unequal means and will

Asymmetric Niche CompetitionAsymmetric Niche Competition

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Little Means

Great Will

Great Means

Little Will ?

vs.

Large Power ChallengerOpponents have unequal means and will

Two Different AsymmetriesTwo Different Approaches

Asymmetric Niche CompetitionAsymmetric Niche Competition

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Why #2 : Spectrum of Military Why #2 : Spectrum of Military OperationsOperations

Peace Crisis War Peace

Major Combat

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Why #2: Spectrum of Military OperationsWhy #2: Spectrum of Military OperationsNew Security EnvironmentNew Security Environment

PeaceCrisis

ResponseHostilities

Post-Conflict

Peace

Major Combat

•Increasing human dimension•Increasing complexity•Increasing “whole of nation” effort

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Why #3: “Real” World OperationsWhy #3: “Real” World Operations• Industrial Age: Physical Attrition

– Right targets, weapons, numbers, time, but…– Enemy adapts:

• Non-uniformed combatants• Mixed with civilians

– Engagements

• Information Age: Psychological Attrition– Right actions, right timing, right effects– Complex situation

• No civil-military separation, human shields• Multiple audiences• Foe seeking media “effect”

– Interaction on-going• No beginning or end• Peace, crisis, war, post war, peace continuum

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The WhatThe What

EffectsEffects--Based Operations:Based Operations:

Coordinated sets of actionsdirected at shaping the

behaviorof friends, foes, and neutrals

in peace, crisis, and war

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Decisionprocesses

Decisions•Choices among alternativesincluding contingent choices

•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives•Requests for support•Queries•Reports•Efforts to consult

Planning•Missions•Assets•Boundaries•Schedules•Contingencies

Synchronization

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncert

ainty

2. Operations in the Cognitive Domain2. Operations in the Cognitive Domain

White

RedBlue

Shared Awareness

Mental ModelPrior Knowledge

Deep understandingof situation•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Synchronization

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncert

aintyShared Awareness

Mental Model Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

Prior Knowledge

SocietalDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

……and Beyond and Beyond -- TThe Societal Domainhe Societal Domain

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Rules of the GameRules of the Game

• Actions create effects … on any observer who can see them

• Effects occur simultaneously...– ...on four different levels of military operations and– ...in political, diplomatic, economic and military arenas

• Effects are cumulative and interrelated• Effects are physical and psychological

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Synchronization

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncert

aintyShared Awareness

Mental Model Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

Prior Knowledge

SocietalDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

Continuing Action Reaction CyclesContinuing Action Reaction Cycles

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3. Complexity3. Complexity• The Complicated

– Known or knowable cause and effect chain– Inputs/outputs proportional; whole equals sum of parts

• The Complex– Multiple interdependent variables– Changing cause and effect chain – Inputs and outputs not proportional; whole does not

equal sum of the parts• The Complex Adaptive

– Not only complex but evolves independently• …and The System of Complex Adaptive Systems

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Group

Organization

Community

Societal

Supranational

Organism

Organ

Cell

OOOOOOOoooooooo

oooooooooooooo

James Grier Miller, Living Systems

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Tactical Unit

Operational Command

Military

State

International

Warfighter OOOOOOO

Al Qaeda

Regional Franchise

Local Network

Terrorist Cell

Terrorist

State versus Non-State Actor

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Tactical

Operational

Military-Strategic

Geo-Strategic

International

Individual OOOOOOO

Military Operations

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Problem: Orchestrating ActionsProblem: Orchestrating Actions• What will they see?

– Focus– Force applied– Scale– Scope– Timing

• speed• duration• synchronicity

– Visibility

What is done

How it is done

Tools For

Shaping

+

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Sea Air Ground Space

Theater

Tactical

Operational

Military Strategic

EconomicMilitary

Political

Geo-strategic

Problem: Deconflicting ActionsProblem: Deconflicting Actions

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Peace Crisis Post PeaceHostilities

Tra

nsiti

on

Tra

nsiti

on

Synchronization Synchronization vsvs SelfSelf--synchronizationsynchronization

The Fedora Curve

Major Combat

Coo

rdin

atio

n

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Problem: Defining EffectsProblem: Defining Effects

•Destruction •Physical Attrition•Chaos/ Entropy•Foreclosure

•Passive•Active

•Shock•Psychological

Attrition

OverallEffect Behavior

Kinds of Effects

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Problem: Effects CascadesProblem: Effects Cascades

Physical ActionObject/Event

DirectPhysical Effect

First Indirect Physical Effect

IndirectPhysical effect

IndirectPhysical Effect

IndirectPhysical Effect

Second IndirectPhysical Effect

Indirect PsychologicalEffect

IndirectPsychological

Effect

IndirectPsychological

Effect

First Cascade Second Cascade

IndirectPsychological

Effect

IndirectPsychological

Effect

Indirect PsychologicalEffect

Indirect PsychologicalEffect

“Other” ObserverIndirectPsychological Effects

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Synchronization

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncert

aintyShared Awareness

Mental Model Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

Prior Knowledge

SocietalDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

Problem: Feedback Problem: Feedback ---- What can we know?What can we know?

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4. Implications for Network Centric Operations4. Implications for Network Centric Operations

• Options not answers

• Knowledge Mobilization not Data Base Management

• Agility and Adaptation not Stock Plans

• Man in the Loop not Man out of the Loop

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••Constructing a Decision SpaceConstructing a Decision Space

Scale•How much?

Scope•How?•Where?•With what?

Timing•How agile? •How fast?•For how long?•How synchronized?

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Scale

Scope

Timing

Decision Space

*Threat #1Threat #1

*Threat #2Threat #2

Capabilities/ Networking Define Decision SpaceCapabilities/ Networking Define Decision Space

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Creating OptionsCreating Options

C(N-1)

.(N. =OptionsSN)

C

•Capabilities Tool Kit•Social Networking AND Communications Networking

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OptionsOptions--Based Decision SpaceBased Decision Space

Scale

Scope

Timing

OwnDecision Space

Adversary #1 Decision SpaceAdvantage

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OptionsOptions--Based Decision SpaceBased Decision Space

Scale

Scope

Timing

RevisedDecision Space

Adversary #1 Decision SpaceAdvantage

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OptionsOptions--Based Decision SpaceBased Decision Space

Scale

Scope

TimingOwn

Decision Space

Adversary #2 Decision Space

Advantage

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– Complex Adaptive Systems• Cannot entirely predict threat/ problem

– Three Different Kinds of Information /Knowledge• Sensor-derived information • Human-derived reporting

– Ambiguous, subjective, uncertain– Not readily machineable/ Natural language

• Expertise– Based on mastery of complex subject– Cannot communicate mastery

•• Knowledge MobilizationKnowledge Mobilization

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– Fusion• Data, Information, Knowledge • Expertise from across the nation/ coalition• Flexible, ad hoc, changing communities of expertise

– Multiple Interfaces• Machine-Machine• Man-Machine• Man-Man

•• Knowledge MobilizationKnowledge Mobilization

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Interacting ComplexAdaptive Systems

Adaptation

Options

Agility

Knowledge

Tool kit•Scale•Scope•Timing

•Flexibility•Resilience•Innovation•Responsiveness•Adaptation•Robustness

•Knowledge Mobilization•Data/Information•Expertise•Situational Awareness

•Individual•Group

•• Agility:Agility: Putting it TogetherPutting it Together

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Conclusions: Conclusions:

• Complex Security Environment/ Effects-Based Operations impose new requirements

• Need to move from Networks• Faster targeting• More efficient attrition …and • “man out of the loop”

• To Networking• Complex, multi-level, multi-arena responses• Social AND Communications Networking

• Supporting the man in the loop

Second Generation Network Centric OperationsSecond Generation Network Centric Operations

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BackBack--up: Effectsup: Effects--Based OperationsBased OperationsTwo Main US Tracks:• Track One: Effects-based “Targeting”

– Air Force School• Precision strike to create non-linear psychological effects• Major combat focus

• Track Two: Effects-Based Operations– Maneuverist School –Special Forces/ Marine Corps– Naval School – Crisis Operations– Actions to create psychological effects on observers

• Stimulus and response approach • Focus: Peace, crisis, war …and post-conflict stabilization• Applied national power