the story behind the 2010 percentage pass in south africa

The Story behind the 2010 Percentage Pass in South

Africa

Dr Muavia Gallie

1999 + 12 years Ave.Comparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

1999Ave.

2000 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2000Ave.

2001 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2001Ave.

2002 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2002Ave.

2003 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2003Ave.

2004 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2004Ave.

2005 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2005Ave.

2006 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2006Ave.

2007 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2007Ave.

2008 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2008Ave.

2009 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2009Ave.

2010 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

2010Ave.

Ave % Drop in Learners Gr 1 to Gr12

% Drop in Learner from one grade to next

-11%

0% 1%-3% -3% -4%

5%

-5%

5%

-19%

-32%-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Grade 1to 2Grade 2 to 3Grade 3 to 4Grade 4 to 5Grade 5 to 6Grade 6 to 7Grade 7 to 8Grade 8 to 9Grade 9 to 10Grade 10 to 11Grade 11 to 12

% Drop in Learner from one grade to next

-11%

0% 1%

-3% -3% -4%

5%

-5%

5%

-19%

-32%-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Grade 1to 2 Grade 2 to 3 Grade 3 to 4 Grade 4 to 5 Grade 5 to 6 Grade 6 to 7 Grade 7 to 8 Grade 8 to 9 Grade 9 to 10Grade 10 to 11Grade 11 to 12

Grade 1to 2

Grade 2 to 3

Grade 3 to 4

Grade 4 to 5

Grade 5 to 6

Grade 6 to 7

Grade 7 to 8

Grade 8 to 9

Grade 9 to 10

Grade 10 to 11

Grade 11 to 12

%L Drop 0% -10.8% -0.3% 0.7% -3.2% -3.5% -4.4% 4.7% -5.3% 5.3% -18.7% -32.3%

1999-2010 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010

450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12

199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010Ave.

Matrics 2010 started Gr1 in 1999

Drop in Learners Gr 1 (1999) - Gr12 (2010)

1,318,932

579,384550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

Grade 1 Grade 12

Only 44% left!