the potential & peril of web 2.0
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WEB 2.0 AND THE DATA ECONOMYJust Because We Can Doesn’t Mean We Should(even though we probably will)
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ABOUT JOHN PARKINSONCHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, PARKWOOD ADVISORS LLC
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30+ years in technology 20+ years in consulting Published author and columnist
(CIO Insight) World’s top 25 most influential
consultants (2003) Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005) Retired head of Innovation and Strategy
at Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001) Retired CTO of Capgemini (July 2005) External Director, TeleGuam Holdings
LLC; Tap.tv Board of Advisors: Brulant, Inc. ; InSORS
Communications; Skyline Data, Inc. Kanterra, Inc.
parkijo@att.net+1 847 235 1791www.parkwoodadvisors.biz
COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER:
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ParkWood Advisors LLC 2007. All rights reserved.
Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson at ParkWood Advisors LLC..
This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services.
If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
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AGENDA (TO SOME EXTENT) May 1
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Some observations on the human condition….
Some definitions…. Some
opportunities…. Some issues…. Some additional
thoughts…. An opportunity to
disagree….
"You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there."
Yogi Berra
SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HUMAN CONDITION“When you come to a fork in the road – take it”
Yogi Berra
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SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HUMAN CONDITION
We talk in absolutes, but act incrementally and heterogeneously
We project the future linearly, but evolve hyperbolically
Discontinuities are far less common than people think
Inertia is a force to be reckoned with Writing about the future doesn’t mean it will
happen that way People, given the choice, will avoid having to
think hard
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Versio
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Voice Crossover: August 2000
4x/Year
2.8x/Year
ARPA & NSF Data to 96
2001 Measurements
Limit of same % as GDP
Sustained at 4x/Year
Government & Research
Commerce, including VoIP
Collaborative Work
50 YEARS OF TRAFFIC GROWTH
Consumer Peer to Peer
Petabit threshold
Exabit threshold
1Gbps
1Tbps
10Tbps
100Gbps
10Gbps
100Tbps
100Mbps
1Kbps
1Mbps
10Mbps
100Kbps
10Kbps
100 bps
1 Pbps
100 Pbps
10 Pbps
10 bps10 bps
1 Ebps
10 Ebps
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
100 Ebps
1 Zbps
10 Zbps
Zettabit threshold
NEW CAPABILITIES CHANGE BEHAVIOR IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS
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RelativeImpact of Capability
On behavior
Mainstream Collaboration
time
The “new”
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
MinicomputersShared digital documents
All-in-one & PROFSBasic email
Fax
PC & LANEmail & Voicemail
SpreadsheetsWord processing
ISDN & basic VTCCell Phones
Internet2.5G Cell Phones
IM & Advanced MessagingPowerPoint & Rich media
P2PWi-Fi
Converged IP NetworksBlackberry & UMTS
Immersive PresenceAgents & Rules
Shared WorkflowDRM
BANDWAGONS TEND TO ATTRACT BANDS
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This is just the first 50 of more than 1000 “Web 2.0” brands you canbrowse on:
www.web2logo.com
(SOME OF) THE PEOPLE FORMALLY KNOWN AS THE AUDIENCE….
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….(seem to) WANT TO PARTICIPATE
CONSEQUENCES
Mobs are generally not very smart (sorry Howard) although (small) crowds are sometimes capable of wisdom (way to go James!)
The world is not even approximately flat yet (sorry Tom) although some (small) regions are getting that way because of the light speed limit
Everything is noise without the right filters Just because everyone believes it doesn't
make it true It’s hard to break in and even harder to break
out Business as usual is the norm, because it
requires no customer learning effort (sorry Chris, Rick, Doc & David)
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SOME DEFINITIONS“Some people, if they don’t already know, you can’t tell them”Yogi Berra
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I don’t know what it is but you need a new one….
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Business Webs - compose on demand
Event Driven
Functional Accuracy
Task Driven
Building functions & task enablement
Functional Integration
Procedure Driven
Joining functions & tasks to create procedures
ERP – shared data
Data Driven
Integrating procedures to create end to end processes across the Enterprise
Finding & connecting capabilities from different sources in real-time, to support the dynamic nature of sense & respond
Modelling the probability of connections being made to ensure end to end services & optimum value
Business Networks - shared processes
Process Driven
Extending processes across the network to create services & value from the Eco-System.Hard-wired and soft-wired connections
Where we are today
Functionally-oriented Architectures Process-oriented Architectures
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FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION ONLY…….
Service delivery and instantiation models
Service execution environment design
Service composition and interaction
expectations
Service experience and economics
SaaSSaaS
SOASOA
Web 2.0Web 2.0BUT WHERE’S THE DATA?
=
=
=
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WHERE’S THE DATA? Everywhere and nowhere: The web vs. the
corporate data landfill vs. the personal storage device vs. wetware (and then there’s analog history)
Bounded by ownership and custom and structure (or lack of it)
Unbound by metadata and inference and algorithms (and carelessness with tags)
Hard to find, maintain, trust, understand….
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ONE THINGS FOR CERTAIN: REALLY VALUABLE INFORMATION WANTS TO BE EXPENSIVE (sorry Stewart)
SOME OPPORTUNITIES“You can observe a lot just by watching”
Yogi Berra
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“AND” IN A WORLD OF “OR”
Choice without compromise In-house where it matters Hosted for variable load management On demand (or at least on the net) for the rare (or
frequent but intermittent) occasion when….. Stability and agility
It just works (the way I want) – all the time It’s up to date – all the time and without disruption
Richness and reach Personalization that works for me Standardization under the hood (so I can afford it)
People and technology
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WEB 2.0 IS ABOUT MORE THAN SOFTWARE
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BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE NOT PERIPHERALS – AND PERIPHERALS ARE NOT PEOPLE
SO EVERY COMPANY IS A “MEDIA” COMPANY – LIKE IT OR NOT (MOST WON’T)
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SOME ISSUES“In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is”
Yogi Berra
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AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (1 OF N)
Security and trust: What’s inside the black box? Where does your data really live and how and where does it travel…..
Standards: The right amount soon enough….
Performance: When everybody wants the same thing, right now….
Licensing and pricing and billing and getting paid: Markets, trading and arbitrage
Interaction and interoperability: Many small parts widely separated (sorry David)
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AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (2 OF N)
Ownership and control: Ideas and code and script and look & feel….
Customization and extensibility: Because we are never really satisfied with just your ideas….
Recovery from failure: Because we still have to deal with Entropy and people….
User centered design challenges: Too rich for some mere mortals….
Rediscovering semiotics: So the message doesn’t get lost in the medium….
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AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (3 OF N)
Connectivity is vital, but broadband is a myth created by US (and European) telephone companies and cable system operators (honorable exception: Verizon)
All the really good data is locked up so you can’t get at it (without joining a club you may not qualify for)
Peer group selection pressure is a barrier to broad social networks (for most of us)
Capital concentration and leverage favors a smart incumbent (but you can still change the game, here and there)
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SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future”
Yogi Berra
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WHERE WE ARE TODAY…..
Visualization changes the game in valuing data Zurich ATC example http://wpf.netfx3.com/direct/zurich/zeuswpf.xbap Otto Retail Store Experience http://www.otto.de/vista
Business “applications” are still struggling to incorporate a “rich” experience
Games lead the way but are still challengingly complex to develop (worse than movies). Maybe evolution is the answer?
“Code for Fun” approaches target “amateur” developers: Lessons from the “Makers Faire” community
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WHERE WE ARE TODAY….A BRIEF WORD ON SENSORS
Cameras, cameras everywhere, but not a lot to see
Cell phones as environmental sensors Most sensor data isn’t significant so long as
you know the sensor is working Event correlation matters as much as event
detection Spoofing strategies are still emerging Mesh might be an answer but: how granular?
Location? Mobility? Cost? Still need a power supply and a network
connection
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WHERE WE ARE TODAY
Legal and regulatory environments are out of alignment with technology capabilities and mercantile capitalism
Provenance and reputation make collaborative sources interesting but suspect (sorry Don)
Information leakage makes pricing data very hard and protecting information assets almost impossible
The Long Tail requires much better “findability”: If search is the answer, what’s the question?
Anyone can join in, but relatively few can create anything worthwhile (alone or as a mob)
The really hard parts still require genius and insight: mass isn’t enough
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QUESTIONS & COMMENTS: AN OPPORTUNITY TO DISAGREEWelcome to the future – however it turns out
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