the guessing game - alternatives to agile estimation

Neil Killick

neilkillick.com

The Guessing Game

Alternatives to Agile Estimation

WHAT WILL I GETAND WHEN?

ARE WE ESTIMATINGOR GUESSING?

ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES

ESTIMATES SETEXPECTATIONS

ESTIMATES ARESELF-FULFILLING

A TYPICAL DYSFUNCTION USING ESTIMATES

Present a business case

Estimate team & other cost ==> ROI

Put team together

Team estimates

Is the estimate too big?

Reduce scope

Project approved

NO

YES

Ditch project?

Business case approved &

project prioritised

but when w

ill it start?

Complete guess?

HOW DO WE ESTIMATE COST?

HOW DO WE PRIORITISE?

HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?

Project lifecycle

Assumption lifecycle

PROJECTS MAKEASSUMPTIONS

BIG BETS ARERISKY

WE MUST CONSIDEREMERGENT VALUE

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?

BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINEWHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k?

USE REAL CONSTRAINTS

BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLEWHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k?

ITERATE ON QUALITY

Present a business case

Approved as viable option

Team assigned

2-4 week experiment

Is initiative still valuable

enough?

NO

Initiative prioritised

YES

+ Team(s) if required

Frequent d

elivery

& feedback

loop

PUT THE ITERATE INTO ITERATIONS!

Stop

MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCHDIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET)

SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS

BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMSENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY

HIRE THE "A-TEAM"

REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLYSTOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES

FOCUS ON VALUE

BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORSDRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY

RESPOND TO CHANGE

WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FORDELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT

PREDICTABLE DELIVERY

HOW DO WE AGREEPRICE & TERMS WITH

OUR CUSTOMERS?

CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIAWELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE

COLLABORATION

ITERATIVE PRICING

SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATIONCUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY

FLEXIBLE OPTIONS

FEATURE DELIVERYWITHOUT ESTIMATING

USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST"

SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE

STORY COUNT > STORY POINTS

DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT

PRICE PER FEATURE

WHY IS THISSO IMPORTANT?

STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMINGESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES

CULTURE OF HONESTY

WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICESWE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS

FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY

ON TIME, ON BUDGET?

I want to shift focusaway from estimating and ontodelivering value tostakeholders & customers...

So that I am empowered tomake the right decisions and

@neil_killick#NoEstimates

AS A SOFTWARE PRACTITIONER

BUILD THE RIGHT THING

Neil Killick

neilkillick.com

Thank you

Questions?