the guessing game - alternatives to agile estimation
DESCRIPTION
My talk delivered at Agile Australia 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
The Guessing Game
Alternatives to Agile Estimation
WHAT WILL I GETAND WHEN?
ARE WE ESTIMATINGOR GUESSING?
ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES
ESTIMATES SETEXPECTATIONS
ESTIMATES ARESELF-FULFILLING
A TYPICAL DYSFUNCTION USING ESTIMATES
Present a business case
Estimate team & other cost ==> ROI
Put team together
Team estimates
Is the estimate too big?
Reduce scope
Project approved
NO
YES
Ditch project?
Business case approved &
project prioritised
but when w
ill it start?
Complete guess?
HOW DO WE ESTIMATE COST?
HOW DO WE PRIORITISE?
HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?
Project lifecycle
Assumption lifecycle
PROJECTS MAKEASSUMPTIONS
BIG BETS ARERISKY
WE MUST CONSIDEREMERGENT VALUE
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?
BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINEWHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k?
USE REAL CONSTRAINTS
BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLEWHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k?
ITERATE ON QUALITY
Present a business case
Approved as viable option
Team assigned
2-4 week experiment
Is initiative still valuable
enough?
NO
Initiative prioritised
YES
+ Team(s) if required
Frequent d
elivery
& feedback
loop
PUT THE ITERATE INTO ITERATIONS!
Stop
MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCHDIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET)
SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS
BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMSENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY
HIRE THE "A-TEAM"
REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLYSTOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES
FOCUS ON VALUE
BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORSDRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY
RESPOND TO CHANGE
WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FORDELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT
PREDICTABLE DELIVERY
HOW DO WE AGREEPRICE & TERMS WITH
OUR CUSTOMERS?
CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIAWELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE
COLLABORATION
ITERATIVE PRICING
SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATIONCUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY
FLEXIBLE OPTIONS
FEATURE DELIVERYWITHOUT ESTIMATING
USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST"
SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE
STORY COUNT > STORY POINTS
DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT
PRICE PER FEATURE
WHY IS THISSO IMPORTANT?
STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMINGESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES
CULTURE OF HONESTY
WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICESWE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS
FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY
ON TIME, ON BUDGET?
I want to shift focusaway from estimating and ontodelivering value tostakeholders & customers...
So that I am empowered tomake the right decisions and
@neil_killick#NoEstimates
AS A SOFTWARE PRACTITIONER
BUILD THE RIGHT THING
Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
Thank you
Questions?