the future of green energy at the epicenter of the energy ... future of green energy... · the...

The future of Green Energy at the

epicenter of the Energy Crisis

by Henk Zwart(Pr. Cert. Eng & Pr Eng)

Electrical Consulting Engineer+27 82 527 0585

henk.zwart@vodamail.co.za

Index

• Power Generation Perspective• Major Misunderstanding Concept• Green Energy “Renewable” • Will it work?• Conclusion

Sorry……we are currently load shedding…..

Please switch off everything…..no please keep your TV switched ON…..

Please do not use electricity…..now you have to pay more for the electricity you do not use………

Power Generation Perspective

Power Generation Perspective

Power Generation Perspective

Typical Locations of Energy Sources

Power Generation Perspective

Power Generation Perspective

Installed Capacity44 084MW today

Power Generation Perspective

May to July

PlannedMaintenance

PlannedMaintenance

11%

Power Generation Perspecitve

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 00050 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

Existing Capacity Mothballed MWNew DSM New Coal PFNew Nuclear New CCGTNew P Storage New OCGTTotal Demand (incl 15% reseve)

• During 1994 Power Utility made active decision to move from “cost +” to “profit” margin

– Power Utility was warned that they will repeat USA (Texas) incident– Problem with “profit” approach No maintenance, reduce expenditures– Greedy mentality– State owned All profits shared between State and Top management– First indication of problem 2008 load shedding – Efficiency and Reliability of Power Stations declining at a rapid pace Planned VS

Unplanned• Is it possible to remedy the situation?

– 20yrs of “lacking” maintenance Complete replacement required on critical equipment– New build only replacing what is currently installed– End users not in position to finance future build

• The Future?– Load shedding permanently with us– Costs of Electricity From cheapest in world to most expensive in world

Power Generation Perspective

• Power Utility Reliability– Major concern as a result of inability to stop concerns– Costs not a true reflection on the truth

Power Generation Perspective

• If The Power Utility “crashes” today……..– There is no quick “Fix”– Economy severely affected– Negative growth at a rapid pace……

• Downscaling of projects• No investment

Power Generation Perspective

• Alternative supply– Can be fast tract … faster than building thermal power stations

–Comes at a “Huge” cost premium

Power Generation Perspective

We have a plan………..

But

Major Misunderstanding Concept

Major Misunderstanding Concept• Instantaneous available power

– Maximum Demand (MD) Average Power used in 30 minutes– Instantaneous MD Substantially higher up to 20 x full load current on premium

efficient motors• Reserve power available from Power Utility

– For comparison

VS

Major Misunderstanding Concept

Major Misunderstanding Concept• Alternative Energy Source must be able to

– Supply instantaneous power to cater for starting of equipment– Store energy

Daily Photo Voltaic (PV) Energy Output

Annual PV Energy Output Northern Hemisphere

Major Misunderstanding Concept• To cater for diversified Energy Supply.

– Energy Plant must be designed for secondary losses– Cater for Maximum Instantaneous power requirements– Fast reaction to cope with transients – Cope with bulk step loading– Prevent Frequency drift

• There must be enough kA The “Oomph” ….”inertia” – Equates to large standby capacity– High Capital Costs– No Capex payback for some solutions– Motor power VS Resistive loads

• R 1.30 130 Cents/kWh• R 4.60 460 Cents/kWh• R 12.50 1250 Cents/kWh

Power UtilityDiesel GeneratorsRenewable Energy

Pump motor Installed 1.1kW,use only 0.6kWHeater  Installed 3kW, Use 3kW

Major Misunderstanding Concept

• Alternative Energy Source– Co-generation to assist in daily power demand– Self sustainability?????

• Distribution Cost Model– Who pays?– Internal Generation

Green Energy“Renewable”

Green Energyenergy from a source that is not depleted when used, such as wind or solar power."the environmental benefits of renewable energy"

Renewable energy is generally defined as energy that comes from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat

Renewable energy (sources) or RES capture their energy from existing flows of energy, from on‐going natural processes, such as sunshine, wind, wave power, flowing water (hydropower), biological processes such as anaerobic digestion, and geothermal heat flow.

Renewable energy: Any energy resource that is naturally regenerated over a short time scale and derived directly from the sun (such as thermal, photochemical, and photoelectric), indirectly from the sun (such as wind, hydropower, and photosynthetic energy stored in biomass), or from other natural movements and mechanisms of the environment (such as geothermal and tidal energy). Renewable energy does not include energy resources derived from fossil fuels, waste products from fossil sources, or waste products from inorganic sources.

Green Energy

Green Energy• Renewable Energy options.

– Sun This is the most abundant source available– Wind– Biomass– Geothermal

• Home Power

Will it Work?

Will it Work?• Renewable Energy rely entirely on availability of base load. (On grid)

– Power Utility must be able to guarantee capability Still a major Risk– Each end user to be able to co-generate– Reselling surplus “Green Energy” back to Power Utility Still an issue– Costs will still be high– When Power Utility fail to supply base load Every thing fails

• Standard House hold– Must be able to store energy– Battery life an issue– State Of Charge (SOC)– 80% of battery safe window– Beyond 80% SOC rapid

aging

Will it Work?• Major changes required from the State.

– Co-Generation Tariff’s– Current peak demands are outside Solar (PV) availability ????– Oops….. Energy must be stored …increased costs– Wind not reliable compared with Solar Sustainability

Daily PV Energy Output

Will it Work?• Industry Installed Base.

– Must be large “energy farms”– Must be able to store surplus energy– Peak tariff’s are going to increase substantially

Will it Work?• Load shedding direct impact.

– Will still be at risk– To mitigate the inconvenience Install Green Energy– Green Energy Solution must be sized to mitigate risk of no energy being available

• Self Sustainability.– Projects to include self sustainability– Open Space scarcity– Premium costs per MJ/m²

Will it Work?• Storing Energy.

– Technology is not environmental friendly– Technology still in infant phase– Advanced Energy Materials being developed for improved energy storage

Will it Work?• We have no option available.

– Due to current situation with Power Utility, Green Energy is a “must” to survive

You have been duly informed

• Designed correctly, “Green Energy” can work• Costs for Home Power completely off the power grid >R 350 000-00• Maintenance costs

– Battery replacement ±10yrs Earlier if SOC is exceeded– Solar PV units replacement 15 to 20 yrs.

• Only upper class citizen can afford the costs– Out of reach for middle class & worker class

• Security of systems under thread– Securing PV panels must be considered– Remote “energy farms” to be protected

• Energy = Growth– No energy No growth

Will it Work?  Recap

Will it Work?  Recap

Load Shedding strategy for Municipalities not paying Stage 2 & 3 permanently

Conclusion

Conclusion• This presentation is completely based on “fiction”• No deliberate reference was made to Eskom or South Africa• Energy costs will become expensive

• You can either Adapt or die

Questions

Base load40 399MW

Peak load only3 685MW

Installed Capacity44 084MW

Installed Capacity55 116MW