the end of moore's law

THE END OF MOORE’S LAW

Bing Gordon, KPCBbgordon@kpcb.com@bingfish @kpcb

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Working for Intel

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CPU Transistor Counts 1971-2008 & Moore’s Law

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Gordon Moore

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We See Farther• Semiconductor power inevitable• Movie-like art and animation • Emotion as rich as movies• Rise of “software artists”• Games business as big as music and

movies

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Respect!• Games> Box office or music (ho hum)• 10 million unit sellers• Jobs!!!• “Predictable” profits

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Powers of 101981 Atari VCS 128 bytes1986 NES 2K + 2K 1989 Sega Genesis 64K+64K1994 Sony Playstation 2 MB + 512K2001 Playstation 2 32MB +4MB2006 PSX3/Xbox 2 256-384MB2012? PS4/Xbox 3? 5G?

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"Oh, boy! Are we going to try something dangerous?"

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Hot or Not?

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“More Parallax”

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Johan Huizinga

Homo Ludens, 1938Play is free, is in fact freedom.Play is not “real” life.Play is distinct from “ordinary” life both as to locality and duration.Play creates order, is order.Play is connected with no material interest, and no profit can be gained from it.

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Janet Murray

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Measuring Time, Not Boxes or Tickets

Top 10 US Paid Media 20041. Club Pogo 225M hrs2. Madden NFL 05 180M hrs3. Everquest 170M hrs4. (Google search) 170M hrs5. Grand Theft SA 160M hrs6. Halo 2 150M hrs7. Sopranos 5th season 130M hrs8. Shrek 2 movie 126m hrs9. Spiderman 2 movie 113m hrs10. Passion of Christ 110M hrs11. ESPN NFL 2K 2005 100M hrsSource: various, internal estimates

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Elements of Games

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+25%

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Squint

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Dani

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No Offsides

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Draft Meter

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Spearazon

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Golden Mean

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Lord B

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Gameface

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Norrathian Scrolls, Nicholas Yee, 2001

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Gotta Catch ‘Em All!

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Touch this

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The Best Box in Gaming!

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Will

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Who Are You?

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Ask Coach Madden

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Sid Golf

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Sneaker Romance

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Death in the Afternoon

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“I’m Not Dead Yet.”

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“The Right to Miss a Shot.”

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“Ybarra”

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“We’d Buy It…”

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Daisycutter

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Jollymon, Armitage Shanks

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Pint

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The Stickiest Game Mechanic

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“The Videogamification of Everything”Videogamification of everything— Videogame design thinking— Mechanics— Game design as the new MBA

Ubiquitous social software— 500 “friends”— Newsfeeds instead of newspapers

Generation multitask— Entertainment, work, social, info— 5 minute sessions— Clickable everything— Virtual is real

Toward zero marginal cost education— Dewey— The new way to learn math, literature, leadership

Entertainment as a service— The end of “intelligent design”— Darwin game design— Data and servers, not clients

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The Power of Weak Ties

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Average Number of FriendsBy Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine The more friends you have, the more you earn, says a study. But modern life can allow little time to maintain meaningful relationships, so what's the optimum number of friends? It's widely accepted that friendships are invaluable to the soul but few of us were aware that they could also boost the bank account. A study of 10,000 US students over a period of 35 years suggests the wealthiest people are those that had the most friends at school. Each extra schoolfriend added 2% to the salary. The researchers said this was because the workplace is a social setting and those with the best social skills prosper in management and teamwork. 'I HAVE 700 FRIENDS' Toks Timson, 41, from Croydon, has 707 Facebook friends'I actually know or have met or worked with or went to school with or am related to at least 550.'The others are just friends of friends or random adds from people.'Having that number of friends is a lot of work for sure. I'm a bit of a raver and also someone who makes friends easily.'If a wide circle of friends is taken as a popularity indicator, does that mean the more you have the more successful and happy you are? Or can you have too many? What is the best number? The average number is about 150, says leading anthropologist Robin Dunbar. It may sound like a lot, but think of your Christmas card list - 50 cards to 50 couples = 100 friends. "It's the number of people that you know as persons and you know how they fit into your social world and they know how you fit into theirs. They are a group of people to which you have an obligation of friendship." They usually consist of an inner circle of five "core" people and an additional layer of 10, he says. That makes 15 people - some will probably be family members - who are your central group and then outside that, there's another 35 in the next circle and another 100 on the outside. And that's one person's social world. Aristotle said friends must have eaten salt together

Philosopher Mark VernonFriendships help us develop as people, says Mark Vernon, author of The Philosophy of Friendship,

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Is John Madden the New John Dewey?

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The Math of Madden FootballOr, Why Videogames are the Future of Education

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Your Game Here

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Our Future

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Thank You