the election: implications for policy change?ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/clinton_trump_2016.pdf ·...

The Election:Implications for Policy Change?

Menzie D. ChinnUniversity of Wisconsin, Madison

Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs

Madison, WI

November 1, 2016

Macro/International Issues

Fiscal policy- short run- long run Labor markets Trade policy- tariffs- sanctions Immigration

2

Summary

3“Trump vs Clinton: Polarization & uncertainty,” Research Briefing (Oxford Economics, 19 Sept. 2016)

4Oxford Economics, Global scenarios service: Q3 2016.

Macroeconomic Effects (static)

5“Trump vs Clinton: Polarization & uncertainty,” Research Briefing (Oxford Economics, 19 Sept. 2016)

Clinton Tax Plan

6AN UPDATED ANALYSIS OF HILLARY CLINTON’S TAX PROPOSALS (October 18, 2016)

Clinton Tax Plan

7AN UPDATED ANALYSIS OF HILLARY CLINTON’S TAX PROPOSALS (October 18, 2016)

Clinton Tax Plan (omits spending)

8AN UPDATED ANALYSIS OF HILLARY CLINTON’S TAX PROPOSALS (October 18, 2016)

Trump Tax Plan

9AN ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP’S REVISED TAX PLAN (October 18, 2016)

Trump Tax Plan

10AN ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP’S REVISED TAX PLAN (October 18, 2016)

Trump Tax Plan (omits spending)

11AN ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP’S REVISED TAX PLAN (October 18, 2016)

Differential Impact of Plans

12October 26, 2016

Trade War (Trump – adverse)

13Oxford Economics, Global scenarios service: Q3 2016.

Trade War (Trump –adverse)

14Oxford Economics, Global scenarios service: Q3 2016.