the australian renewable energy revolution · • reach the 2020 renewable energy target in 2019 -...

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The Australian Renewable

Energy Revolution

November, 2019

Professor Ken Baldwin

Director, ANU Energy Change Institute

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Human Sciences:

• Energy Economics and Policy

• Energy Efficiency

• Energy and Security

• Energy for Development

• Energy-Water Nexus

• Energy Regulation and Governance

• Energy Sociology and Risk

• Hydrogen Economy

• Sustainable Transport

ANU Energy Change Institute

Technology and Policy neutralA wide spectrum of Energy research:

Technologies:

• Artificial Photosynthesis

• Energy Storage and Recovery

• Enhanced Oil and Gas/ CCS

• Fusion Power

• Nuclear Science

• Renewable Fuels

• Smart Grid

• Solar PV

• Solar Thermal

• Wind Energy>$100M in facilities and >300 researchers

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Australia’s Paris

commitment:

• 26 – 28%

reduction by

2030 in GHG

emissions

based on

2005 levels

The climate change imperative

539

98}

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Australia’s GHG emissions

IF the electricity

sector provides the

best opportunity to

make the most rapid

impact, then this

requires >>28%

GHG emissions

reductions by 2030

given that the other

sectors are harder to

address.

RERE

RE

RE

RE

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Australia is moving in the wrong direction …..

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….even though our per capita/per GDP isn’t

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Agriculture emissions are constant

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Australia has an

abundance of

energy of all types

(except oil)

Australia is an energy powerhouse

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Electricity for all of Australia and the world

Australia as a RE powerhouse

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Renewable Energy Pipeline

Large-scale renewable energy capacity installation rate: currently ~ 4.0 GW p.a.

Small-scale renewable energy capacity installation rate: currently ~ 2.4 GW p.a.~6.4 GW p.a.}

Source: Clean Energy Regulator

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Australia is a RE powerhouse

Australia leads the

world with 250W

per capita p.a.

wind and solar

installation rate,

and the highest

penetration of

rooftop solar (24%)

Source: the International Renewable Energy Agency

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Renewable / fossil replacement rate

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If industry is allowed to continue installing renewables at the

current rate then Australia will:

• Reach the 2020 Renewable Energy Target in 2019 - Sept. !

(and probably the old pre-Abbott RET in 2020)

• Reduce electricity sector emissions by 26% by 2021*

• Attain our 26% Paris goals for the entire economy by 2025

• Reach 50% renewable electricity by 2024

• Approach 100% renewable electricity in the early 2030’s

Projections if industry installation continues

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* Assuming GHG emissions and electricity demand remain constant

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Energy growth shifts to Asia

Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)

China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth

4%

65%

10%

8%

8%5%

OECD

Non-OECDAsia

MiddleEast

Africa

Latin America

Eurasia

Share of global growth2012-2035

480

Brazil1 540

India

1 000Southeast

Asia

4 060

China

1 030

Africa

2 240UnitedStates 440

Japan

1 710

Europe1 370

Eurasia

1 050MiddleEast

Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013

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Australia’s current (carbon-based) energy trade

ECI’s $10m ANU

Grand Challenge:

To future-proof

Australia’s energy

exports – based on

Renewable Energy

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ANU $10m Grand Challenge

Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific

20x domestic

260 TWh/y !!

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ANUEnergy Change Institute

Thank you!

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Technology learning rate: solar PV

Time Source: Fraunhofer Institute 2018 PV Report

1/100th

price per

module! Compound annual

growth rate (CAGR)

of 33% for the last

30+ years!

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Technology learning rate: wind

Currently 5 MW

- 100x capacity

Source: energytransition.org

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Electricity demand and sources

Source: Pitt and Sherry, October 2016

carbon tax removed

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• The higher the penetration (>50 %), the

higher the cost to cover intermittency:

• Overbuild supply

• Build additional storage capability

• Build additional network infrastructure

• Will this provide the same level of reliability

of supply?

• Will this provide the same level of security

e.g. increasing extreme weather events?

How high can renewables go?

Adds 50%

to LCOE

but still

cheaper

than coal}

Yes – perhaps better

Maybe

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• Rapid decarbonisation of the energy sector

– solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (fusion?)

• Increasing availability of domestic energy

sources results in greater energy security

• More disseminated generation, storage and

demand response (the ‘internet’ of energy)

• Increased vulnerability to cyber threats

World-wide trends in energy

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Australia needs to:

• address continuing government policy uncertainty (which threatens and inflates new investment) by:

➢ placing an economy-wide price on carbon

➢ creating market incentives for more transmission and storage

• put all options on the table - including nuclear

• educate NIMBYism – community acceptance

• address the threat to the electricity grid model and the

accompanying social equity issues

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Elephants in the room

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Energy generation sources

Solar

Direct Indirect

Global

Tidal

Geothermal

Fossil

Oil

Coal

Gas

Photovoltaics

Solar heat

Thermal electric

Thermochemical Biomass

Wave

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Fission

Fusion