the australian renewable energy revolution · • reach the 2020 renewable energy target in 2019 -...
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ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 1ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au
The Australian Renewable
Energy Revolution
November, 2019
Professor Ken Baldwin
Director, ANU Energy Change Institute
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Human Sciences:
• Energy Economics and Policy
• Energy Efficiency
• Energy and Security
• Energy for Development
• Energy-Water Nexus
• Energy Regulation and Governance
• Energy Sociology and Risk
• Hydrogen Economy
• Sustainable Transport
ANU Energy Change Institute
Technology and Policy neutralA wide spectrum of Energy research:
Technologies:
• Artificial Photosynthesis
• Energy Storage and Recovery
• Enhanced Oil and Gas/ CCS
• Fusion Power
• Nuclear Science
• Renewable Fuels
• Smart Grid
• Solar PV
• Solar Thermal
• Wind Energy>$100M in facilities and >300 researchers
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Australia’s Paris
commitment:
• 26 – 28%
reduction by
2030 in GHG
emissions
based on
2005 levels
The climate change imperative
539
98}
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Australia’s GHG emissions
IF the electricity
sector provides the
best opportunity to
make the most rapid
impact, then this
requires >>28%
GHG emissions
reductions by 2030
given that the other
sectors are harder to
address.
RERE
RE
RE
RE
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Australia is moving in the wrong direction …..
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….even though our per capita/per GDP isn’t
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Agriculture emissions are constant
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Australia has an
abundance of
energy of all types
(except oil)
Australia is an energy powerhouse
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Electricity for all of Australia and the world
Australia as a RE powerhouse
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Renewable Energy Pipeline
Large-scale renewable energy capacity installation rate: currently ~ 4.0 GW p.a.
Small-scale renewable energy capacity installation rate: currently ~ 2.4 GW p.a.~6.4 GW p.a.}
Source: Clean Energy Regulator
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Australia is a RE powerhouse
Australia leads the
world with 250W
per capita p.a.
wind and solar
installation rate,
and the highest
penetration of
rooftop solar (24%)
Source: the International Renewable Energy Agency
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Renewable / fossil replacement rate
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If industry is allowed to continue installing renewables at the
current rate then Australia will:
• Reach the 2020 Renewable Energy Target in 2019 - Sept. !
(and probably the old pre-Abbott RET in 2020)
• Reduce electricity sector emissions by 26% by 2021*
• Attain our 26% Paris goals for the entire economy by 2025
• Reach 50% renewable electricity by 2024
• Approach 100% renewable electricity in the early 2030’s
Projections if industry installation continues
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* Assuming GHG emissions and electricity demand remain constant
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Energy growth shifts to Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8%5%
OECD
Non-OECDAsia
MiddleEast
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth2012-2035
480
Brazil1 540
India
1 000Southeast
Asia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240UnitedStates 440
Japan
1 710
Europe1 370
Eurasia
1 050MiddleEast
Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013
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Australia’s current (carbon-based) energy trade
ECI’s $10m ANU
Grand Challenge:
To future-proof
Australia’s energy
exports – based on
Renewable Energy
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ANU $10m Grand Challenge
Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific
20x domestic
260 TWh/y !!
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ANUEnergy Change Institute
Thank you!
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Technology learning rate: solar PV
Time Source: Fraunhofer Institute 2018 PV Report
1/100th
price per
module! Compound annual
growth rate (CAGR)
of 33% for the last
30+ years!
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Technology learning rate: wind
Currently 5 MW
- 100x capacity
Source: energytransition.org
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Electricity demand and sources
Source: Pitt and Sherry, October 2016
carbon tax removed
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• The higher the penetration (>50 %), the
higher the cost to cover intermittency:
• Overbuild supply
• Build additional storage capability
• Build additional network infrastructure
• Will this provide the same level of reliability
of supply?
• Will this provide the same level of security
e.g. increasing extreme weather events?
How high can renewables go?
Adds 50%
to LCOE
but still
cheaper
than coal}
Yes – perhaps better
Maybe
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• Rapid decarbonisation of the energy sector
– solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (fusion?)
• Increasing availability of domestic energy
sources results in greater energy security
• More disseminated generation, storage and
demand response (the ‘internet’ of energy)
• Increased vulnerability to cyber threats
World-wide trends in energy
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Australia needs to:
• address continuing government policy uncertainty (which threatens and inflates new investment) by:
➢ placing an economy-wide price on carbon
➢ creating market incentives for more transmission and storage
• put all options on the table - including nuclear
• educate NIMBYism – community acceptance
• address the threat to the electricity grid model and the
accompanying social equity issues
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Elephants in the room
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Energy generation sources
Solar
Direct Indirect
Global
Tidal
Geothermal
Fossil
Oil
Coal
Gas
Photovoltaics
Solar heat
Thermal electric
Thermochemical Biomass
Wave
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Fission
Fusion