synoptic/meso-scale comparison of recent historic tornado events marc kavinsky senior forecaster –...
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Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Recent Historic Tornado EventsRecent Historic Tornado Events
Marc KavinskyMarc Kavinsky
Senior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFOSenior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFO
NWA 31NWA 31stst Annual Meeting 14-19 October 2006 Annual Meeting 14-19 October 2006
19 October 200619 October 2006
NOAA’s National Weather ServiceNOAA’s National Weather Service
NOAA’s National Weather Service
Recent Historic Wisconsin Tornado Recent Historic Wisconsin Tornado EventsEvents
• 23 June 200423 June 2004– 55thth Largest Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History Largest Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History
• 17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s• 1 death1 death• 28.8 million damage28.8 million damage
•18 August 200518 August 2005– Worst Tornado Outbreak in Worst Tornado Outbreak in
Wisconsin HistoryWisconsin History• 27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s• New daily, monthly (27)New daily, monthly (27)• New yearly record (62)New yearly record (62)
» Previous yearly record was 43 -1980Previous yearly record was 43 -1980• 43 million damage43 million damage• 1 death, 27 injuries1 death, 27 injuries
Supercell/Severe Wx ForecastingSupercell/Severe Wx Forecasting
BL - 6 km Bulk Shear BL - 6 km Bulk Shear BL - 3 km Bulk Shear BL - 3 km Bulk Shear
40 kts and higher 40 kts and higher 30 kts and higher 30 kts and higher
0-3 km Storm Relative 0-3 km Storm Relative HelicityHelicity
150 m2/s2 and higher150 m2/s2 and higher
Mean Layer Cape Mean Layer Cape (MLCape)(MLCape)
1000 j/kg and higher1000 j/kg and higher
Mid Level Lapse Rates/ Mid Level Lapse Rates/ WBZ/Freezing Lvl Height/ WBZ/Freezing Lvl Height/ ThetaE DifferenceThetaE Difference
Indicators for hail and Indicators for hail and microburstsmicrobursts
BoundariesBoundaries Windshift, Density, Windshift, Density, ThermalThermal
Moderate to Strong PotentialModerate to Strong Potential
F2-F5 Tornadic Supercell ForecastingF2-F5 Tornadic Supercell Forecasting
0-1 km Bulk Shear0-1 km Bulk Shear 20 kts or more20 kts or more
Mean Layer LCLMean Layer LCL 1.2 km (3900 ft) or less1.2 km (3900 ft) or less
0-1 km Storm Relative 0-1 km Storm Relative HelicityHelicity
100 m2/s2 or more100 m2/s2 or more
Mean Layer CINMean Layer CIN -50 j/kg or higher-50 j/kg or higher
0-3 km CAPE0-3 km CAPE 60 j/kg or more60 j/kg or more
0-3 km Vorticity Generation 0-3 km Vorticity Generation PotentialPotential
0.30 or greater0.30 or greater
Mean Layer LFCMean Layer LFC <2 km (6500 ft)<2 km (6500 ft)
Strong BoundariesStrong Boundaries
Moderate to Strong PotentialModerate to Strong Potential
24 June 2004 4 panel 01z 24 June 2004 4 panel 01z
24 June 2004 – 300 mb 01z24 June 2004 – 300 mb 01z
23 June 2004 Supercell Forecast23 June 2004 Supercell Forecast
60
55
50
40
0-6 km Bulk Shear
1000
1500
2000
ML Cape
150
200
250
0-3 km SRH
Surface Boundary
00z/24
23 June 2004 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast23 June 2004 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast
0-3 km Cape
125
100
75
50
15
20
25
0-1 km Bulk Shear
<-50
>-50
MLCIN0-3 km VGP
0.2
0.3
0.35
0.2
2500 2000
1500
1000
MLLCL
00z/24
23 June 2004 - Tornadoes23 June 2004 - Tornadoes
F0-F1
F2
F3
19 August 2005 – 4 panel 00z19 August 2005 – 4 panel 00z
19 August 2005 – 250 mb 01z19 August 2005 – 250 mb 01z
18 August 2005 Supercell Forecast18 August 2005 Supercell Forecast
40
45
50
0-6 km Bulk Shear
150
200
250
300
400
0-3 km SRH
1000
1500
20002500
MLCape
L1003
23z/18
18 August 2005 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast18 August 2005 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast
15
20
30
0-1km Bulk Shear
200
150
100
0-3 km CapeMLCIN All CIN greater than -50
2600
3300
2000
MLLCL
0.5
0.40.3
0.2
0.10-3km VGP
23z/18
18 August 2005 - Tornadoes18 August 2005 - Tornadoes
F0-F1
F2
F3
Conclusions…Conclusions…
• Remain aware of Near Storm Environment Remain aware of Near Storm Environment parameters and if time allows, perform hourly parameters and if time allows, perform hourly mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, TAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC MesoanalysisTAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC Mesoanalysis
• Look for low level boundary interaction with Look for low level boundary interaction with axis of severe weather and strong tornado axis of severe weather and strong tornado parametersparameters
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
• Mark Gehring – Forecaster MKXMark Gehring – Forecaster MKX
• SPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/ArchiveSPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/Archive
• Bill Borghoff – graphicsBill Borghoff – graphics
• Jeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKXJeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKX
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