sygnol ranked choice polls and the 2016 presidential election

Signal vs. Noise in Modern Politics

• Noise is crowding out intelligent discussion.– Negative advertising trumps real debate.– Infotainment trumps journalism.

• The noise is a manifestation of CACA Politics–We are immersed in a culture of

Character Assassination andCaricature Amplification

– Repetitive CACA is the message of our media.

Repetitive messages make our media: The fruit of CACA Politics

Why So Much Noise?

• Underlying sources and motivations of CACA“Journalists” attract audiences by provoking bias confirmation.Candidates skew voter behaviors by demonizing opponents.

• Amplifying factors of CACAMedia are highly dependent on seasonal political ad revenue.Big Data analytics facilitate effective micro-targeting of negative ads.Vast spending increases are enabled by Citizens United and McCutcheon.

A Growing Windfall for Political Ads

Fixing the Signal to Noise (s/n) Ratio

Pursuing noise reduction has failed!Campaign finance reform has failed

Donor Limits = A long history of not working out.ACLU and Libertarians alike worry about limiting speech.Big Money routes around barriers anyway.

Voluntary public financing of campaigns has failedSubsidized Spending Caps = Ignoring the deeper

problem.The strategic appeals of CACA discourse remain in

place.Expedience overrules noble declarations (Obama 2008).

Winning Politicians <3 Negative Ads

When Will Noise Reduction Work?

• Prospects for Election Finance reform?– Lawrence Lessig and others haven’t given up.– But no overhaul is likely before 2017, if ever.– And less spending by itself won’t disrupt s/n

ratio.

• Prospects for improved journalism?– Financial and ratings pressures never go away.– CACA-hungry mass culture knows few other

flavors.

To change something, build a

new model that makes the existing

model obsolete.Richard Buckminster

Fuller

Signal Improvement Strategies

• Rethinking the cure for CACA Politics

– Politics is about managed competition.– So manage it. – Create venues that bake in attractions

for signal over noise.

Experiments and Experiences

• Indaba.org + other Ranked Choice Voting Sites– jQuery-based sortable list drives familiar Netflix-

like queue• supports highly efficient interactive ballot

– SQL-based procedures supply interactive result visualizations• Realtime Plurality, Borda, Condorcet, and Instant Runoff

tabulations

Theoretical Background

• Deep readings of –Marshall McLuhan– Douglas

Engelbart– Terrence Deacon– Ted Nelson– John Searle

Baking in Attractions for Signal

• Shaping a Signal-Friendly Media Venue– Content-oriented

• Serve creators, curators, and consumers:– Enable political advocates to articulate values and plans.– Facilitate rich engagement of contributors and evaluators.– Present a great show to casual and low information voters.

– Ratings-oriented• Divert investment from CACA ads and journalism:

– Get politicians to purchase placements in the new venue.– Get journalists to report on the venue’s competitions.

Why Keep Waiting to Step Ahead?

A Strategy for Raising Signal

• Exploit well-understood social circumstances– In the era of Big Data, delivering a well-identified audience,

however small, can attract advertisers.– Journalists and viewers are irresistibly attracted to stories

about status battles among candidates.– When politicians believe it is important not to lose a particular

game, they will seek to compete.

• In other words, – Build a new kind of arena.– Stage a clean fight.–Make the competitors pay to play.

Some people just can’t ignore (or resist)

the call to be the Lord of the Ring

Architecting Sygnol• Four Pillars of an Arena for High Signal Politics– Liquid Democracy for Competitors

– Voters seek proxies to represent their concerns and interests.– Politicians seek to become delegates of voter preferences.

– Ranked Choice Voting for Curators– Optimal for multi-candidate and multi-option races.– Offers a feast for Big Data wonks and horse-race handicappers.

– Utter Transparency for Consumers– Reveal authorship and cost of every ad presented in the venue.– Fully expose the governing algorithms and financial influences.

– Rewarding Employment for Founders– Build something valuable, and it will be valued.– Financial health opens up creative opportunities.

To build Sygnol, learn from Indaba

WindowsAzure hosts Sygnol

Bootstrapping Sygnol

1) Low Profile Prototype Creation– Test Gamified Crowdsourcing as an AppStore Toy

• Ranking Past Presidents/Reality Show Contestants, etc.

2) Attract Seeding Advertisers– Find Allies for Creation of a High Signal Venue

• League of Women Voters, FairVote, NoLabels, ICANN

3) High Profile Announcement and Launch– Ranked Choice Scientific Polls in Iowa and NH

• Demonstrate Sygnol’s distinctive technical virtues

AimsPoll

• The medium makes the message.

• Sygnol is the publisher, IAN is the parent network, but the fastest growing audience soon after launch – the early adopters – will be watching AimsPoll.

• Each venue is locally targeted, but Iowa will be first, so the Iowa venue will set the tone of the brand.

• I also own amespoll.com

More on Fixing the S/N Ratio

Optimize for

Highly structured candidate engagement with authenticated participants

Content refinement by participating content creators and curatorsFast periodization of liquid-democracy proxy selection and vote re-

delegation Affordable rates for content submission by participants.Incentivized advertising into topical and goal-oriented debates.Rewarding validated listeners/curators with increased creation

privileges.

More to Come

• Refactoring the software architecture–WebAPI 2.1, Azure, MVC, XAML, IOS, Android

• Conducting, publishing, and hosting polls– AimsPoll vs. AmesPoll

• Attracting candidates in the earliest venues– Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

The Short Pitch

• We have– A Story– A Technology– A Market

The Story

• Mission Statement– “Building better tools for better

democracies.”• Be a part of that story.• Be a part of the Indaba Application Network

The Technology

– Modernized Media for a Modern Electorate– Promise candidates a fair chance at equal time.– Promise viewers less noise and more signal than traditional TV.

– Liquid Democracy for Competitors– Voters seek proxies to represent their concerns and interests.– Politicians seek to become delegates of voter preferences.

– Ranked Choice Voting for Curators– Optimal for multi-candidate and multi-option races.– Offers a feast for Big Data wonks and horse-race handicappers.

– Utter Transparency for Consumers– Reveal authorship and cost of every ad presented in the venue.– Fully expose the influences of proxies and delegates.

The Market• Iowa

– Polling ramps up in November 2014– Media spikes for Ames Straw Poll in August 2015– Iowa caucus scheduled for Monday Jan 18, 2016

• Iowa spending is likely to surpass $50 Million.– Seeking 1% of that market to be profitable– Acquiring 5% is reasonably feasible– Doing so in many more states is also feasible

• Further primary spending could surpass $200 Million– New Hampshire is Jan 26– Nevada Feb 6, South Carolina Feb 13– Super Tuesday is March 1, 2016 (CO, FL, MA, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT)

IAN -> Sygnol -> AimsPoll

• Indaba Application Network ian– Controls licensing, Funds other projects

• Sygnol– Publisher, Platform builder

• AimsPoll +GranitePoll, PalmettoPoll, SilverPoll, etc.

– Combines localized content with network feed

Help create an antidote for CACA Politics

For more on how it works:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQp4myhEx-A

Contact:Craig Simon, Ph.D.

craigsimon@sygnol.com954-921-2838