sustainable use of the seabed around the uk · mw of ofto tenders mw of planning applications mw of...

Sustainable use of the seabed around the UK

Prof. Mike Cowling

Chief Scientist

Contents

• Role of the Marine Estate

• Activities in UK waters

• The Carbon economy

• Marine renewable energies

• Carbon capture & storage

• Sustainability

• Total economic value

• Conclusions

UK 12 nm Limit

UK Continental Shelf

88 million hectares of seabed22,000 km coastline

Role of the Marine Estate• The Crown Estate is a public body

• Owns and manages ~50% UK foreshore and almost all seabed out to 12nm

• Energy and mineral rights out to 200nm

• Operates under The Crown Estate Act 1961

• Duty to maintain and enhance the value of the estate and return from it

• Due regard for principles of good management

• Stewardship is a Core value

• The Crown Estate is not in any sense a Regulator for activities on its estate

Principal activities in UK waters

Oil & Gas

Shipping

Fisheries

Aquaculture

Oil & Gas

Shipping

Renewables

CD & FP

Mining

Oil & Gas

Shipping

Renewables

CD & FP

Telecoms

Fisheries

Shipping

Oil & Gas

CD & FP

Mining

Defence

Telecoms

Shipping

Defence

Fisheries

CD & FP

Oil & Gas

Fisheries

Aquaculture

Shipping

Telecoms

Fisheries

Shipping

Aquaculture

Fisheries

Annex 2. Key activities within each region and trends in since 2003 in economic value (purple) and environmental pressures (blue). Arrows indicate either an increase, no change or fluctuating (up and down). The width of the arrow reflects the relative degree of change (i.e. more or less than 50% change).

UKMMAS: Productive Seas Evidence Group – Feeder Report for ‘Charting Progress 2’ Draft

The Carbon economy

Transition from a Solar to a Carbon Economy (i)

©The National Gallery, London

‘The Fighting Temeraire’ JMW Turner 1838

From distinguished service at Trafalgar to breaker’s yard at Rotherhithe

Transition from a Solar to a Carbon Economy (ii)

Edinburgh University Press2001ISBN-10: 0748612831

• First real census 1841• UK population ~20m• 2008: 61.4m 2033: 71.6m• Plus carbon intensification of

everyday lifeSources:Julie Jeffrieshttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fom2005/01_FOPM_Population.pdfONShttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1352

Adrian Gault – Chief Economist CCC, UKNEE/LSE Nov’09

Sustainability in the business

Adrian Gault – Chief Economist CCC, UKNEE/LSE Nov’09

The potential contribution of CCS

Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdf

Adrian Gault, Chief Economist, Committee on Climate Change, see:http://www.eftec.co.uk/UKNEE/Seminars/2009_documents/Seminar3_2009_Gault_presentation.pdf

Marine renewable energy

UK 12 nm Limit

88 million hectares of seabed22,000 km coastline

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Round 1 Windfarm Lease

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Round 3 Zone

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Round 3 Zone

Scottish Windfarm Exclusivity Agreement

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Round 3 Zone

Pentland Firth Area of Interest

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Round 3 Zone

Dredging Licence

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Round 3 Zone

Dredging Licence

UK 12 nm Limit

Bathymetry

Shallow

Pentland Firth Development Sites

The Scottish Government Saltire Prize - Consultation locations

Round 1 and 2 extensions to power 1.4 million homes (Press Release Tuesday 11th May 2010)

The Crown Estate has today announced an additional 2GW of capacity from the Round 1 and 2 project extensions, which would be enough electricity to meet the needs of up to 1.4 million homes in the UK. Three Round 1 and Round 2 offshore windfarm operators have been selected to extend five sites, creating an additional 1.7GW. In addition, a further 340MW has been offered to increase capacity within the current Round 1 and 2 site areas for two other projects. These awards will help to provide a stable flow of construction projects to the offshore wind supply chain in advance of Round 3.

Operator name Original project

Extension project

Capacity Area

SSE Renewables and RWE

Npower Renewables

Greater Gabbard Galloper Wind Farm 504 MW 174.9

Vattenfall Wind Power Kentish Flats Kentish Flats 2 51 MW 8.3 km2

Vattenfall Wind Power Thanet Thanet 2 147 MW 17.2 km2

Dong Wind UK Burbo Bank Burbo Bank Extension 234 MW 39.7 km2

Dong Wind UK Walney Walney Extension 750MW 146.2

Scottish Government SEA – Offshore wind (i)

• New consultation 19th May 2010• Existing 10 sites in STW can

proceed, with mitigation• Proposes further 25 sites for

2020-2030• Consultation closes 16th August

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/05/14155353/0

Scottish Government SEA – Offshore wind (ii)

Short term developments Medium term proposals

Offshore Wind Supply Chain

http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/newscontent/92-uk-supply-chain-events.htm

UK Offshore Wind Report 2010

http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/uk_offshore_wind_report_2010.pdf

The Green Energy Decade

Information from Developers forward plans and projected capacity

10,000

12,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Round 3

Scottish Territorial

Waters

Potential Demo Sites

Round 1 and 2 (including extensions)

Cumulative Installed MW

Opportunity for generating capacity from all current leasing rounds

Phasing

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Round 3 programme delivery curves

MW of project approvals

MW of OFTO Tenders

MW of Planning Applications

MW of KPC granted

MW of Leases Signed

MW of Project Construction started

MW of Project Installations Complete

Volume of Turbines

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Potential Number of turbines required annually (3.6MW vs 6MW)

Installations vs. water depth

Foundation type will depend on water depth and will vary significantly, including : mono-piles; jackets; TLP’s; shallow moored floating

UK & European dimensions

http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/round3_supply_chain_gap_analysis.pdf

UK Installations

Europe vs. UK Installation

Demand for Ports and Harbours

Illustration courtesy of BVG Associates

European Ports

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

UK Emitters and Potential Clusters

Source: IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

Cluster Region CO2 volume

Humber 60Mt

Thames 28Mt

Scotland 18Mt

Teesside 11Mt

Liverpool Bay 10Mt

Scotland

Teesside

Humber

Thames

Liverpool Bay

Jim Ward – National Grid

CCS – Sources of information

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdfhttp://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf

Capture Technologies• Current UK Demonstration is for post-combustion capture

• Separation of CO2 from flue gas

• Two leading technologies

• Both to be fully evaluated at European CO2 Technology Centre, Mongstad, Norway http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/oed/Subject/carbon-capture-

and-storage/mongstad-ccs-project.html?id=502210

• Scottish Power already

trialling one system at Longannet

Transportation of CO2

• UK has long-established offshore oil & gas industry which handles pressurised gas in large volumes on a daily basis

• Similar issues are addressed in the wider chemical processing industry

• Regulatory environment is strong

• Certification and inspection regime is well established

• Health & Safety record is good

• There are minor issues regarding purity of CO2

• New significant risks?

Injection of CO2

• Requires seabed oilfield well technology

• O&G industry has been injecting CO2 to produce oil, over a long period

• Regulatory environment is strong

• Certification and inspection regime is well established

• Health & Safety record is good

• New risks?

CCS in Action

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdf

Storage of CO2 (i)

Storage of CO2 (ii)

• Indicates oil & gas fields and aquifers

• Indicates potential issue of trans-boundary migration

CO2 Phases

http://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_annex1.pdf

• CO2 will be liquid when injected

• Viscosity similar to oil

Storage of CO2 (iii)• Storage is in pores between grains in sandstone formations

• No ‘lake’ of free liquid CO2

• Pressure is required to drive liquid through the porous rock & limits capacity

• Migration is slow

Storage of CO2 (iv)

• 4 types of trapping

• Stability increases with time

• Ultimately formsCalcium carbonate

http://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf

Storage of CO2 (v)

Injection since 1996

12 years data

>10m tonnes

Dispersion speed now as 2006

No leakage to surface

Typical timescales associated with CCS

Years10 50 70

Injection

Consent & Development

Post closureClosure

Geological storage

10,000 yrs

1m years

10m yearsOil & gas

Natural CO2

Time (logarithmic scale)

Natural geological accumulations of CO2 occur widely throughout Europe and the world – some leakEU NASCENT project

Monitoring

CCS Risks• Storage typically ~2000m below seabed• EU Directive requires containment within a

geological formation (site)• Directive also requires the site to be within a

geologically-sound complex• Double barrier against leakage• Increased capacity to monitor• Extremely unlikely that CO2 will reach the seabed• Small amounts of CO2 at seabed unlikely to have

measurable effect

Stern Review, Ch9

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm

CCS Coal – Costs Comparable to Wind

Large barrage

(Cardiff-

Weston,

8.6GW)

Small barrage

(Shoots 1.1GW)

Offshore wind Coal CCS Onshore wind Nuclear

Figure: Levelised cost at social discount rate for low-carbon technologies built in 2020

Source: CCC calculations based on DECC (2009) Partial impact assessment of Severn Tidal Power shortlisted schemes, IPCC (2005) Special report on CCS , DECC capital and operating cost assumptions.

Source: Committee on Climate Change Oct 09 Jim Ward – National Grid

CCS Summary (i)

• CO2 is stored as a pressurised liquid within pores in porous rocks

• Potential offshore UK capacity is very large

• Capacity limited by pressure in geological formation

• Public perception is very important

CCS Summary (ii)• Substantial and improving capability to monitor

• No indication of significant potential for a catastrophic event (c/w subsea volcanic eruption)

•EU Directive requires storage site within outer complex arrangement

• Regulator has to be satisfied that CO2 will be contained within the (inner) site

Eruption of West Mata volcano on seafloor near Fiji in 4,000 feet of water, May 2009(NOAA)

Marine Bio-energy

• Macro-algae = seaweeds• SAMS Report; Kelly et al• 27 recommendationshttp://copyright.thecrownestate.co.uk/CECopyright/Default.aspx?DocID=marine_biomass_anaerobic_biogas.pdf

• Marine bio-fuels: tertiary source of energy in Scottish Government renewables frameworkhttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/917/0066300.pdf

Macro-algae Bioenergy

• Large-scale use of natural stocks is unsustainable• Farming needs to be focused on an energy industry, rather than diversification of aquaculture• Various studies recommended large pilot trials• Focus needs to be on total value chain• Total potential for UK significant but distant• ~700 Petajoules pa?

• UK stakeholder workshop 8th June 2010

Sustainability: now and future direction

Guiding Principles of Sustainable Development

– agreed across UK governments (Defra, 2005)

Sustainability in The Crown Estate business –Aspiration (1)

• CR strategy – “ ... we therefore aim … to secure a sustainable future.”

• Subscribe to the UK ‘shared principles’ of SD

• Desire to understand the sustainability of operations to include as a decision tool

• Wish to assess sustainability alongside ‘suitability’ of a

site / activity

• Wish to understand sustainability of an activity / project when making case for investment

Sustainability in the business – Reality (2)

• Sustainability will be traded with financial return

• (Required by The Crown Estate Act to generate a return on the assets)

Sustainability in the business – Aspiration (3)The 2 Parameter approach

Acceptable values?

No–go zones?

Need to incorporate risk-based approach

Increasing sustainability

Sustainability in the business – Reality (4)

• Need to be able to compare disparate activities

• Eg. Compare Aquaculture to CCS to Offshore wind

Sustainability – now & future

To ensure ecosystem integrity over the long term.

To mitigate the impact of climate change.

To adapt sensitively and appropriately to the effects of climate change.

To promote and support a dynamic and sustainable maritime economy.

To respect the right of future generations to the use of present resources.

To enhance community wellbeing.

To enjoy the support, trust and enthusiasm of local communities.

Indicators

1. Effective monitoring and management of the marine environment

1. Impact on habitats and species

3. Greenhouse gases emitted and displaced

4. Adaptation-specific activities

5. Employment generated

6. Value added

7. Durability

8. Use of non-renewable resources

9. Security of energy supply

10. Education and understanding

11. Net social benefits

12. Public acceptability

Sustainability – now & future

• Indicators

2. Impacts on habitats and species

Measures

2.1 Effects of noise2.2 Incidence of pollution2.3 Physical damage to

features and biotopes2.4 Recovery of marine

and coastal habitats and communities

Sustainability – now & future• Measures

• 2.1 Effects of noise

• 2.3 Physical damage to features and biotopes

Metrics

• Behavioural and physiological effects on coastal and marine mammals, birds and fish associated with construction and operational noise

• Observed damage to the seabed, the coastline; consequences for benthic organisms and coastal communities

7 goals, 12 indicators, 22 measures, 35 metrics per activity

Sustainability: now and future directionSustainable development principles -agreed across UK govts

Living w

ntal lim

g, health

just so

Sustain

govern

• Ecosystem integrity• Climate change mitigation• Climate change adaptation• Dynamic economy• Resources for future generations• Community well-being• Support of local communities

7 Goals 12 Indicators

-Effective monitoring- Impacts on habitats & Species

- Greenhouse gases

- Adaptations

- Jobs- Value added- Durability

- Use of resources - Energy security

- Education- Net social benefits

- Public acceptability

22 Measures----

35 Metrics per activity---------------

Future Goals – a Portfolio Approach

• Not easy for any complex business to be totally ‘green’

• Sustainability is an aggregation of criteria, hence there will be infinite combinations of measurements, good and less good

• Included in MaRShttp://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/mars

• Goal is to improve sustainability of the total portfolio with time

Sustainability

Financial Return0

Strand AStrand B

Strand C

Current activities clustered in this

ellipse

Where the Marine Estate

would like activities to be

clustered in 2020

Sustainability: now and future direction

Sustainability: now and future direction• Current examples which show granularity of issues in the portfolio• Marine aggregate extraction:

- a good score for extent of environmental monitoring and biodiversity action plans

- a relatively poor score for CO2

- a poor score for use of natural resources• Aquaculture:

- a modest score for public acceptability- a low score for climate change adaptation and use of

resources- a high score for value added and durability

• Offshore wind (Round 1):- a poor score for UK jobs (thus far) - a modest score for environmental impact- a good score for use of resources

Total Economic Value• Ecosystem Goods & Services approach

Defra 2007

Flow of ecosystem processes to human welfare benefitsMarine ES Framework

CORE ECOSYSTEM

PROCESSES

Production

Decomposition

Nutrient cycling

Water cycling

Weathering/erosion

Ecological interactions

Evolutionary processes

Food Fisheries

Aquaculture

Fertiliser / Feed

Cooling water

Marine aggregates

Ornamental materials (shells)

Energy Biofuels

Oil and Gas

Renewable energy

Property

Maritime transport

Space for activities/structures

Medicines

Natural hazard protection

Avoidance of pollution

Avoidance of contamination

Tourism

Recreation / Sport

Spiritual/cultural wellbeing

Aesthetic benefits

Nature watching

Aquariums

Research

Education

Inspiration - art

Other unknown

Knowledge

Psychological/

Social wellbeing

BENEFITS

Space and

waterways

Physical wellbeing

Raw materials

BENEFICIAL ECOSYSTEM

PROCESSES

Biomass production: primary

Biomass production: secondary

Larval/Gamete supply

Biological control

Food web dynamics

Formation of species habitat

Species diversification

Genetic diversification

Waste assimilation

Erosion control

Formation of physical barriers

Formation of space & waterways

Formation of pleasant scenery

Climate regulation

Air quality regulation

Biogeochemical cycling

Water cycling (regulation)

Water purification (quality)

Other unknown

Marine Ecosystem Goods & Services

http://copyright.thecrownestate.co.uk/CECopyright/Default.aspx?DocID=valuing_marine_estate_uk_seas.pdf

Marine Ecosystem Goods & Services

http://copyright.thecrownestate.co.uk/CECopyright/Default.aspx?DocID=valuing_marine_estate_uk_seas.pdf

Conclusions• The seabed around the UK can make a significant contribution to decarbonising the UK economy • This contribution will comprise a number of components• Assessment of sustainability provides additional context for particular industries• Total economic valuations also inform the wider debate about development activities

sustainable use of the seabed around the uk · mw of ofto tenders mw of planning applications mw of...

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