steve_raney@cities21.org suburban silver bullet: halve sov commutes goals: –remove many cars from...
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steve_raney@cities21.org
Suburban Silver Bullet: Halve SOV Commutes• Goals:
– Remove many cars from suburban office parks• Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit
– Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots
• What works? – $10/day parking (effective, but unpopular)– Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility
• PRT = Personal Rapid Transit• No “lifestyle sacrifice”• Year 2008 scenario.
steve_raney@cities21.org
Customer-Centered Product Research
Literature
Product Concept InterviewsExperts
Commute
Refined Concept Surveys Validation
• Silicon Valley style • New technology bias
– High touch / community building is natural– Takes on personality of researching organization
• Start with rough business case in mind and refine.
steve_raney@cities21.org
PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle• Feeder / Distributor / Circulator
– Similar to a monorail. Video
• High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. – Non-stop, 30 MPH– Bypasses intermediate stations– Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose– Convenient stops by buildings (not on street)– Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust– 24x7.
steve_raney@cities21.org
Stanford Research Park• In Palo Alto, CA• 20,000 jobs• Campus-style• Parent of Silicon
Valley• 50% asphalt• Commute Shed:
– 47% within 2 miles of Caltrain
– 49% within 10 miles
• 185 edge cities > Memphis
steve_raney@cities21.org
Promising Results (62 surveys)• Promising, but not definitive
• Solo commutes: 89% 45% – Carpool: 9% 32%, train: 0% 15.5% train– For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly)
• @ 350 s.f. per space 50 acres $326M hsng profit
• 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day– PRT: profitable (capital, O&M)
• Huge transit village land value increase
• Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers– 1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO2 .
steve_raney@cities21.org
Comprehensive, Integrated MobilityDoor to Door
Centralized Cars:share, rent, ride home
Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services
first mile Train
first mile Bus
Walk
Bike, scooter, Segway
Smart jitney, hitchhike
•Web/wireless coordination•Supportive policy context•Scale!
Short carpool pick up
first mileLong carpool
•Improved match-making•Shared parking, nuride
PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips
steve_raney@cities21.org
Cellular Solutions
• Marauder’s Map (GPS)– Transit, rideshare connections
• Like NextBus
– Get home safe (Big Sister is watching).
steve_raney@cities21.org
Old transit village 20 acres
Jobs
Jobs
“New Suburbanist” Transit Village
New retail
New housing
Train Station
PRT shuttle system
Extended T.O.D. 1280 acres
Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers.) Child/Senior mobility!
Business Services: Banks, PC store, copies, FedEx, legal, accounting, etc.
Personal Activities: Quality schools, day care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym, massage, yoga, dentist, etc.
Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared parking, lower living cost, less car ownership, more time. A new choice! (versus buying beyond the greenbelt).
Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce housing
steve_raney@cities21.org
Literature + Interviews + Surveys• Large solo driving reduction is hard • Last mile problem is very important
– Mid-day trips: 2X value of time– Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles
• Each commuter: basket of objections– PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient
• 30% time penalty: OK• Carpool psychology is complex:
– Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)– Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
• Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK• Customer support: eliminate nightmares• Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home• Good commute: “time went fast.”
steve_raney@cities21.org
PRT status• 2 companies developing
– Taxi 2000, Fridley (60’ track, 1 vehicle)– ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles)
• Heathrow procurement
• Dubai procurement (no public review!).
steve_raney@cities21.org
PRT Investor Due Diligence• The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc.
– IBM vs. IBM skunk works. Golem Group
• Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time writing documentation)
• Control system safety certification– Public utilities commission?– Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification
• Annual operating costs– Video surveillance, etc. – Insurance for the first system will be high
• Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2M trips 50 days)• Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs).
steve_raney@cities21.org
PRT+D2D EconomicsANNUAL REVENUE $M/yearPRT farebox 4.9Caltrain increment 2.7Ads - personal + wraps 3.56,600 parking sp. reduction 4.0Eliminate bus shuttles 0.3$0.50 daily smart parking 1.3Use guideway for utilities 0.3 total 16.9
OTHER REVENUE $M50 acre housing profit 326.3-1% job turnover/yr 20.0Worker hsng preference ?35% retail sales increase ?cellular carrier preference ?Exclusive delivery franchises ?
COSTS $MPRT capital costs, 5 mi 50.0Shared, automated parking 4.9Annual PRT O&M 3.0Pedestrian landscaping ?ROW acquisition 0.0
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