state of the climate: indiana · state of the climate: indiana . dr. jeffrey dukes . purdue climate...

State of the Climate: INDIANA

Dr. Jeffrey Dukes Purdue Climate Change Research Center @DukesJeff

ACEC Environmental Business Conference September 19, 2018 | Indianapolis, IN

Indiana is getting warmer

Indiana is getting wetter

Image by Adam Nieman

170k years ago

1880 370k years ago

570k years ago

771k years ago

Human activities are adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere

Today

1960 For 800,000 years, CO2 had never been above this line....until now

The AMOUNT and RATE OF CHANGE of CO2 in our atmosphere are unprecedented and caused by human activities

170k years ago

1880 370k years ago

570k years ago

771k years ago

Human activities are adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere

Today

1960 For 800,000 years, CO2 had never been above this line....until now

The AMOUNT and RATE OF CHANGE of CO2 in our atmosphere are unprecedented and caused by human activities

Global Average Temperature

- 1 ºF

- 0.5 ºF

20th Century Average

+ 0.5 ºF

+1 ºF

+ 1.5 ºF

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2015

2016

2015 2016

Global Average Temperature

20th Century Average

- 1 ºF

- 0.5 ºF

+ 0.5 ºF

+1 ºF

+ 1.5 ºF 1.56 ºF

1.78 ºF

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2017 ranked 3rd warmest on

record at 1.5 ºF above average

1984 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

+ 2ºF

- 2ºF

1880 – 1910 AVERAGE

Hotter

Colder

1880 2016

Observed Global Temperatures

Are we sure human activities are driving these observed temperature changes?

All Natural Forces Together

2005

1880 2016

All Human Forces Together

+ 2ºF

- 2ºF

1880 – 1910 AVERAGE

Hotter

Colder

1880 2016

Observed Global Temperatures

Growing scientific evidence that climate

change is altering extreme weather events

3x more likely 15% more intense

What does climate change mean for

INDIANA?

PURDUE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CENTER

ESTABLISHED IN 2004 Broad-based support from academic and administrative units at Purdue INTERDISCIPLINARY 90+ faculty representing 27 departments NON-PARTISAN Objective, science-based information COLLABORATIVE Partnerships with schools, NGOs, businesses, government agencies, farmers

Exploring the causes and impacts of climate change, improving predictive models to project future climate conditions, and pursuing novel ideas for mitigation and adaptation.

Purdue Climate Change Research Center University of Notre Dame IUPUI Indiana University Indiana University Northwest Ball State University Indiana State University

Purdue University Northwest Midwest Regional Climate Center U.S. Forest Service Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Indiana Department of Natural Resources Marion County Public Health Department Mesh Coalition U.S. Geological Survey

Technical contributions from:

Put t ing g loba l change in to

loca l perspect ive

IN CCIA Reports

Climate Health Agriculture

Tourism & Recreation

Infrastructure Aquatic Ecosystems

www.IndianaClimate.org

Energy

Putting global change into local perspective

Water Resources

Forest Ecosystems

Urban Green Infrastructure

Assessment Summary

#INCCIA

COMING SOON 2019 2019

What can we

learn from

historical

climate

observations?

2017

2.6ºF above average

Indiana is getting warmer

+1.2°F

Longer frost-free season

Fewer cold days Significantly warmer

overnight temperatures

Indiana is getting warmer

2017

5.85” above average

Indiana is getting wetter

Heavy rainfall events are increasing in frequency and intensity

Rainfall is more extreme

Data for Midwest U.S., 1958 – 2016. Source: NOAA

In the occurrence of 2-day total, 5-year return

53% In the amount of rain falling in heavy downpours

42%

Increased flooding

Photo: Becky Malewitz

“2,500-year event?”

Phot

o C

redi

t: Sa

ntia

go F

lore

s, S

outh

Ben

d Tr

ibun

e

It’s happening now...

...it’s hurting Hoosiers

Should we expect these

changes to continue?

Annual Statewide Average Temperature

INDIANA

Annual Statewide Average Temperature

INDIANA

Based on seasonal average temperature and precipitation Seasonal Analogs

Base map shows 1981 to 2010 average seasonal temperature from PRISM archive

Statewide Average 2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070 2080s represents average from 2071 to 2100

Days Above 90 ºF Annual Count

57-70 FUTURE

2050s

20 PAST

1915-2013

Future data for medium and high emissions scenario

2050s represents 30-year period 2041 to 2070 Tippecanoe County, Indiana

Tippecanoe County, Indiana

Hottest Day of the Year

High emissions scenario

Past 1915-2013

2050s 2080s

96ºF

105ºF

111ºF

103ºF 105ºF

Medium emissions scenario

-9ºF -2 to -3ºF

Future Past

0 to -1ºF -7ºF

-1ºF

5ºF

Lowest Temperature of the Year

Future data for medium and high emissions scenario

2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070 Past represents average from 1915 to 2013

ANNUAL RAINFALL

6 to 8%

Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario

WINTER SPRING

SUMMER FALL

16 to 20% 13 to 16%

-2% -2 to -3%

Statewide Average 2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070

2050s Relative to 1971-2000 average

Rain or Snow?

1915-2013 2050s

0 5

10

15

20

25

30 35

40

45 50 %

Fraction of Nov-Mar precipitation falling as snow

25% 10-15%

2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070

2050s map showing high emissions scenario, text overlaid includes range for medium and high emissions scenario

Days With Snow On The Ground

PRELIMINARY DATA

Annual count

Future Past

58 34-39

West Central Indiana

Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario

More Water Entering Our Rivers in 2050s

Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario; Percent change is relative to 1981 to 2010 average PRELIMINARY DATA West Central Indiana Average

Annual Change 6 to 8%

Change in runoff

Seasonal Patterns of Runoff 2050s

Winter Change 7 to 8%

Spring Change 21 to 27%

Summer Change -4 to -5%

Fall Change -10 to -11%

West Central Indiana Average Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario; Percent change is relative to 1981 to 2010 average PRELIMINARY DATA

Water Quality

Flood Control

• Indiana is getting warmer

and wetter

• Extreme heat & heavy

rainfall will challenge us

• Seasonal changes are

critical to managing risks

Where we end up

depends on the choices we make!

State of the Climate: INDIANA

Annual Statewide Average Temperature

INDIANA

How can we build

resilience to a

changing climate?

While avoiding

the most severe

impacts

Learn more

about climate adaptation

INDIANA

Environmental Resilience

Institute Toolkit

And climate mitigation

EPA 2015

Vulnerable Bridges No change in heat-trapping gas emissions

With large reductions heat-trapping gas

emissions

CIRA analysis identified bridges that may be vulnerable to increased peak river flows

Costs to urban drainage infrastructure

Increasing frequency of heavy rain events will result in added costs

EPA 2015

Costs for 50 U.S. Cities 2100

Reducing emissions results large avoided costs

HIGH EMISSIONS

LOW EMISSIONS

Water Quality

EPA 2015

$2.6 – 3 billion in avoided costs* from poor water quality when emissions are reduced

*Estimate for contiguous US, compares costs of high and low emissions scenario in 2100

http://IndianaClimate.org

Stay informed, stay connected

Jeffrey Dukes PCCRC Director jsdukes@purdue.edu @DukesJeff

Melissa Widhalm IN CCIA Coordinator mwidhalm@purdue.edu

@PurdueCCRC