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State of the Climate: INDIANA
Dr. Jeffrey Dukes Purdue Climate Change Research Center @DukesJeff
ACEC Environmental Business Conference September 19, 2018 | Indianapolis, IN
Indiana is getting warmer
Indiana is getting wetter
Image by Adam Nieman
170k years ago
1880 370k years ago
570k years ago
771k years ago
Human activities are adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere
Today
1960 For 800,000 years, CO2 had never been above this line....until now
The AMOUNT and RATE OF CHANGE of CO2 in our atmosphere are unprecedented and caused by human activities
170k years ago
1880 370k years ago
570k years ago
771k years ago
Human activities are adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere
Today
1960 For 800,000 years, CO2 had never been above this line....until now
The AMOUNT and RATE OF CHANGE of CO2 in our atmosphere are unprecedented and caused by human activities
Global Average Temperature
- 1 ºF
- 0.5 ºF
20th Century Average
+ 0.5 ºF
+1 ºF
+ 1.5 ºF
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2015
2016
2015 2016
Global Average Temperature
20th Century Average
- 1 ºF
- 0.5 ºF
+ 0.5 ºF
+1 ºF
+ 1.5 ºF 1.56 ºF
1.78 ºF
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2017 ranked 3rd warmest on
record at 1.5 ºF above average
1984 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
+ 2ºF
- 2ºF
1880 – 1910 AVERAGE
Hotter
Colder
1880 2016
Observed Global Temperatures
Are we sure human activities are driving these observed temperature changes?
All Natural Forces Together
2005
1880 2016
All Human Forces Together
+ 2ºF
- 2ºF
1880 – 1910 AVERAGE
Hotter
Colder
1880 2016
Observed Global Temperatures
Growing scientific evidence that climate
change is altering extreme weather events
3x more likely 15% more intense
What does climate change mean for
INDIANA?
PURDUE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CENTER
ESTABLISHED IN 2004 Broad-based support from academic and administrative units at Purdue INTERDISCIPLINARY 90+ faculty representing 27 departments NON-PARTISAN Objective, science-based information COLLABORATIVE Partnerships with schools, NGOs, businesses, government agencies, farmers
Exploring the causes and impacts of climate change, improving predictive models to project future climate conditions, and pursuing novel ideas for mitigation and adaptation.
Purdue Climate Change Research Center University of Notre Dame IUPUI Indiana University Indiana University Northwest Ball State University Indiana State University
Purdue University Northwest Midwest Regional Climate Center U.S. Forest Service Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Indiana Department of Natural Resources Marion County Public Health Department Mesh Coalition U.S. Geological Survey
Technical contributions from:
Put t ing g loba l change in to
loca l perspect ive
IN CCIA Reports
Climate Health Agriculture
Tourism & Recreation
Infrastructure Aquatic Ecosystems
www.IndianaClimate.org
Energy
Putting global change into local perspective
Water Resources
Forest Ecosystems
Urban Green Infrastructure
Assessment Summary
#INCCIA
COMING SOON 2019 2019
What can we
learn from
historical
climate
observations?
2017
2.6ºF above average
Indiana is getting warmer
+1.2°F
Longer frost-free season
Fewer cold days Significantly warmer
overnight temperatures
Indiana is getting warmer
2017
5.85” above average
Indiana is getting wetter
Heavy rainfall events are increasing in frequency and intensity
Rainfall is more extreme
Data for Midwest U.S., 1958 – 2016. Source: NOAA
In the occurrence of 2-day total, 5-year return
53% In the amount of rain falling in heavy downpours
42%
Increased flooding
Photo: Becky Malewitz
“2,500-year event?”
Phot
o C
redi
t: Sa
ntia
go F
lore
s, S
outh
Ben
d Tr
ibun
e
It’s happening now...
...it’s hurting Hoosiers
Should we expect these
changes to continue?
Annual Statewide Average Temperature
INDIANA
Annual Statewide Average Temperature
INDIANA
Based on seasonal average temperature and precipitation Seasonal Analogs
Base map shows 1981 to 2010 average seasonal temperature from PRISM archive
Statewide Average 2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070 2080s represents average from 2071 to 2100
Days Above 90 ºF Annual Count
57-70 FUTURE
2050s
20 PAST
1915-2013
Future data for medium and high emissions scenario
2050s represents 30-year period 2041 to 2070 Tippecanoe County, Indiana
Tippecanoe County, Indiana
Hottest Day of the Year
High emissions scenario
Past 1915-2013
2050s 2080s
96ºF
105ºF
111ºF
103ºF 105ºF
Medium emissions scenario
-9ºF -2 to -3ºF
Future Past
0 to -1ºF -7ºF
-1ºF
5ºF
Lowest Temperature of the Year
Future data for medium and high emissions scenario
2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070 Past represents average from 1915 to 2013
ANNUAL RAINFALL
6 to 8%
Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario
WINTER SPRING
SUMMER FALL
16 to 20% 13 to 16%
-2% -2 to -3%
Statewide Average 2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070
2050s Relative to 1971-2000 average
Rain or Snow?
1915-2013 2050s
0 5
10
15
20
25
30 35
40
45 50 %
Fraction of Nov-Mar precipitation falling as snow
25% 10-15%
2050s represents average from 2041 to 2070
2050s map showing high emissions scenario, text overlaid includes range for medium and high emissions scenario
Days With Snow On The Ground
PRELIMINARY DATA
Annual count
Future Past
58 34-39
West Central Indiana
Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario
More Water Entering Our Rivers in 2050s
Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario; Percent change is relative to 1981 to 2010 average PRELIMINARY DATA West Central Indiana Average
Annual Change 6 to 8%
Change in runoff
Seasonal Patterns of Runoff 2050s
Winter Change 7 to 8%
Spring Change 21 to 27%
Summer Change -4 to -5%
Fall Change -10 to -11%
West Central Indiana Average Future data based on medium and high emissions scenario; Percent change is relative to 1981 to 2010 average PRELIMINARY DATA
Water Quality
Flood Control
• Indiana is getting warmer
and wetter
• Extreme heat & heavy
rainfall will challenge us
• Seasonal changes are
critical to managing risks
Where we end up
depends on the choices we make!
State of the Climate: INDIANA
Annual Statewide Average Temperature
INDIANA
How can we build
resilience to a
changing climate?
While avoiding
the most severe
impacts
Learn more
about climate adaptation
INDIANA
Environmental Resilience
Institute Toolkit
And climate mitigation
EPA 2015
Vulnerable Bridges No change in heat-trapping gas emissions
With large reductions heat-trapping gas
emissions
CIRA analysis identified bridges that may be vulnerable to increased peak river flows
Costs to urban drainage infrastructure
Increasing frequency of heavy rain events will result in added costs
EPA 2015
Costs for 50 U.S. Cities 2100
Reducing emissions results large avoided costs
HIGH EMISSIONS
LOW EMISSIONS
Water Quality
EPA 2015
$2.6 – 3 billion in avoided costs* from poor water quality when emissions are reduced
*Estimate for contiguous US, compares costs of high and low emissions scenario in 2100
http://IndianaClimate.org
Stay informed, stay connected
Jeffrey Dukes PCCRC Director [email protected] @DukesJeff
Melissa Widhalm IN CCIA Coordinator [email protected]
@PurdueCCRC